The last 30 years its been awfully hard to see 3 consecutive duds in a row. We have been tending more towards extremes so it seems when we have 2 bad winters the next one has always been somewhat good. 1996-1999 was an exception
Likely some type of atmospheric lag from the 09-10 Nino which usually has (and did) have significant blocking. Obviously we did not see that same impact in the 98-99 winter but we did in the 83-84 winter which most would have probably forecast to be a torch and was not.
NYC needs to make up 4.1 degrees by 5/31 to not finish top 10 coolest for May. I'm sure it'll happen but it might not be by much. 1973 was the last May to average below 60. 2008 was close
1996 never hit 90 after May until like 8/25. And it was a legit no 90 either. I want to say LGA/JFK never hit 90 once during that stretch and EWR hit 90 maybe 1 or 2 times and it was only 90, not even 91.
Interesting how whatever the effects that existed back in 1947 still exist today. LGA just can’t go below 37 (at least officially yet) Same thing happened the morning in 47 when all the stations set lows
I doubt it. The wind flow is too WNW. The air mass aloft though does cool at 850 another 1-2 degrees or so. The best cold advection occurs the next few hours. I wouldn’t be shocked if NYC maybe got to 33 or EWR got to 33
I believe the NWS uses some sort of rule like if LGA/EWR report it they can report a T for NYC otherwise either ASOS has to have SN or UP at NYC. ASOS isn’t capable of a RASN or SNRA report
LGA looks like they’ll easily break their all time record. Just need 36. I’m not sold EWR won’t make a run at tying their 33. Temps are definitely running under guidance almost everywhere so far
LGA only needs to get to 37 tonight to tie their all time record. JFK should break their deadly record. NYC could tie though I would say it’s probably going to fall 1-2 short. EWR’s all time record is 33 on 5/9 so I don’t expect a daily record or all timer to be set
I clearly remember that day, our roof took damage from hail in Nassau at like 11pm and that was also the day I believe the Pacers upset the Knicks in game 7 at MSG
Yeah no way. I mean it could happen. The only areas that will see accumulating snow with this are those under a CCB or any area of frontogenesis with better rates. Given the way this whole thing is setting up I feel it’s unlikely at the moment that coastal areas would end up under that though it may setup more SE than the Euro and others have been indicating
I think below 40 easily occurs Sunday AM on the setup at 168. Euro shows 35. GFS had 47 on the 12Z run but the Op run was an outlier on being too warm. The gradient is strong enough and 850s cold enough I could not see it staying over 40. Just might not make the record of 36.
I find it funny how relatively mild or less expansive the 12Z Op GFS is with the cold this weekend relative to recent ensemble runs as well as the Op Euro or EPS. We rarely see the GFS be milder, especially when its inside 7-10 days.