SnowGoose69

Certainly in 97-98/15-16 you could have gone insanely warm and been correct both times but its hard otherwise to do that, even in a strong Nina like 88-89/98-99/10-11 you could bust as you would have in 10-11 and even 98-99 was very cold for a stretch in Janaury

The chance this pattern holds is close to zero...anyone who wants cold and snow wants this pattern to keep up another 3-4 weeks before it flips but its almost never that a pattern from September holds all winter.

Another one I saw a few years ago but had a small sample size so it wasn’t trustworthy was that if the August temperature averaged warmer than July in NYC and BOS that it almost always correlated to a mild winter. 84-85 and 01-02 I recall were two of the standout cases of it but total I think only 10-12 years were in the sample so it may have been just randomness

There are not too many cases where the Oct pattern continued through the winter. I always tell people on the dumb basic meteorology scale if you can be mild from 10/1-11/15 its way better than being -5 for that same period if you want a cold and snowy winter. 2000 is one of the few cases in the last 25 years where the October pattern more or less continued all winter

I think FRG west is done...ASOS now 230 winds at FRG so they are coming around...once you get behind the boundary and winds go NW the TOR threat should end

Yeah east of me in Merrick, winds have shifted NW here, you might have shifted too

It sure appears that tornado happened at Llloyd/Eaton Neck...go check PSEG outage map and around 15% of the entire Island's outages are there

Wind now stopped here in Nassau it was pretty bad out ahead of that band

Thankfully it has some east push to it...should be mostly into Suffolk by 12am

LGA .35 in 4 minutes

Now in Merrick, I can hear the thunder just to my west but its practically dry here...eventually it'll make its way east but I think all the heavy axis will pass NW of most of E Nassau

Was it that much in that short a span? I thought it was over 4-5 hours

LOL EWR 3.24 last hour...0.50 in 6 minutes!!!!

Winds are definitely S out here in massapequa and temp has to have gone up 5 degrees at least

November 89 I was in a plane and it’s why I became a meteorologist. Diverted to ISP after they closed. I can’t think of any case similar to this here honestly. Both those events were basically frontal squall lines

I think they’ll be alright as it should go W but I’m not sure what the policy is if a warning comes. You can’t get that many people underground

JFK winds now SSE. LGA ENE. Funneling at LGA down LIS just insane. 41kts. Low likely gonna track right over NYC. GFS track may not be that bad after all but it’s QPF on southern side of metro will be too low

The tornado threat for NYC east probably comes 03-05Z or so with those line segments down in SW NJ and SE PA now. The good news is probably not going to see anything violent out of that like they got in NJ but still dangerous at that time of night with people asleep

It does appear based off current radar maybe the last 2 runs of the HRRR are too dry or NW with the low for places like NYC and Long Island but it’s hard to tell just yet

No changes to my thoughts. Best rains will be west of Queens/Brooklyn/LI but still will see maybe 3-5 inches...I think S shore of LI less. Winds across DE/Delmarva/SE NJ in warm sector despite sunshine and 925 winds of 50kts only gusting low 30s. I still think with the Ambrose funnelling effect SW Nassau back to JFK could see gusts 02-04Z 35-40 but way less as you go E and more inland into LI

Correct. You won’t see it move much til 17Z when it should then blast up close to BLM by 20z or so. It’ll then hang up there til the surface low gets far enough north to force it up to around Staten Island to southern Queens and LI around 00z

With a a 998mb surface low the warm front won't have any issue reaching up to LI/NYC. Only in the absence of a surface reflection will it get hung up down near BLM/TTN. There is some tendency for them to hang up more at night but given the surface low pushing through in the evening its realistic for the front to get up to JFK/EWR roughly.

The NYC metro and LI might fluke their way to 3-4 inches anyway because you may get rogue cells in the 02-08z period which could drop like a half inch in 20 minutes on the southern end of the precip shield that move through. So while they spend most of the night south of the worst activity by a decent margin they could just pile up the total amounts via those brief bouts of heavy rain. The Euro continues to have stupid 925 winds out of the NNE in the 09-12z period which I do not buy. Models finally coming into some agreement in the 00-04z period on 925 winds of 30-42kts it so. Only the HRRR shows over 50 now. I think JFK east to west Suffolk could see some gusts 160-18025G38 or so in that 4 hour window, mostly within 3-5 miles of the coast. Middle island and north shore probably not unstable enough/more frictional effects won’t mix as well

I'm not sure I have seen many cases of mesos SE of the globals lol...again, the lingering tropical characteristics of the system probably causing havoc with the models somewhat...if the Euro ticks NW again I think we can toss to a degree the RGEM. The NAM as I said has been struggling the last 3-4 runs creating double barreled centers and other nuances but it overall has had the axis closer to the GFS/Euro than the RGEM

I still don't buy 6-9 inches other than isolated areas. I think it'll be mostly 3-5 with isolated 6s and 7s