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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    I think any big winds would be behind the system. NNE winds gusting in the 30s are standard here so the tree roots would tolerate it decently well, even with soaked ground. Question would be if we clear a bunch late Wed Am/Thu aftn..if we do and the Euro is right with those wild 45-55kt 925 winds we could mix it down. Its on its own though at the moment. I feel based off ensembles that the warm sector punching in here is becoming less likely, the low will probably go south or close to overhead. Even if we did warm sector in the hypothetical scenario the low somehow went over NE PA or SE NY it would occur during the hours of like 3-7am which would make it harder to mix down any strong S-SW winds
  2. SnowGoose69
    06z/12Z models seemed to speed things up again with progression of the system through here after the 00Z cycles slowed stuff up. Euro continues to be only model with the insane 850 and 925 winds which don't make sense. Its likely operating with the system still being tropical in nature as it reaches the coast or something because I can't see otherwise why a 1000mb low would have winds like that at 925
  3. SnowGoose69
    Usually with these if you go more S and E you will be more correct. Thats not to say you cannot see a 3-4 day track of a remnant tropical end up more N and W but its more frequent the end result is on the S/E side of where models are 3-4 days out
  4. SnowGoose69
    And the US Open schedulers will be looking for a way to quit lol...If the Euro idea verifies it'll rain basically all day THU too
  5. SnowGoose69
    There must be a funneling effect at KNEW because they gust higher than MSY consistently
  6. SnowGoose69
    If its swampy land. We've seen it with some Everglades canes before
  7. SnowGoose69
    There’s definitely a big difference right now in winds just based on the radar from MSY airport to 3-5 miles south of them
  8. SnowGoose69
    You probably have to be in the warm sector for anything interesting. You won't see as much rain but you might see a chance of severe weather. I do not think winds will be a major issue. Even on the NW side it'll probably be too stable to mix anything between G30-35 down
  9. SnowGoose69
    MTK anemometer broke after 90kts but this one just recorded 101 KMDJ 291135Z AUTO 03078G101KT 1/4SM FG BKN002 BKN019 BKN025 26/26 A2877 RMK A01
  10. SnowGoose69
    This storm is a late developer and not really big enough. Gulf Storms that do that often time were monsters before entering the Gulf and are more likely to be able to pull the dry air in from the monstrous circulation area.
  11. SnowGoose69
    It'll be 2 hours or so til we know but it seems to me it might just push it out or wrap it down around the south side far from the center
  12. SnowGoose69
    If it does not wrap that area of dry air back in I think it goes off until it gets to an ERC so 140-150 is probably a legitimate possibility
  13. SnowGoose69
    It seems no matter how pristine conditions are that once you are out of the eastern Caribbean or open Atlantic east of the Islands these systems typically won't deepen a ton during the diurnal period...it usually occurs at night
  14. SnowGoose69
    Once again it appears its ready to take off and its kicking that area of dry air out to the west but it could ultimately wrap it back in again in 2-3 hours so who knows
  15. SnowGoose69
    They'll probably call it 110 or 115
  16. SnowGoose69
    In general any landfalling cane in the US comes in a tad right of what you expect, even at 3-6 hours out because they'll tend to dance a bit to avoid land before coming in. We even see this with small islands where they'll deviate to the right by 10 miles or so
  17. SnowGoose69
    It was real bad with Henri. I’m not sure it’s that effective with tropical systems. The ICON oddly enough across the lower 48 has tended to verify better at times with significant storm details at 72-84 and beyond than inside that range
  18. SnowGoose69
    Katrina was also weakening. That resulted in probably less wind damage than this storm. However Katrina had a lag surge, it may have been a 3 but likely still had the surge of a 4 or 5. It’s possible Ida might come in as a 4 but have the surge of a 3. There does tend to be a lag of 12-24 hours sometimes on surge. Obviously if Ida becomes a 4 by this time tomorrow there won’t be any lag
  19. SnowGoose69
    Ultimately last night's event will result in 8-10 inch totals but most felt 3-6 was more likely prior to that. Its always had to know where the axis of heaviest rain will be. You know it'll be on the W side of a tropical cyclone at this latitude but it can be anywhere from the NW side to the SW side or the entire side and models typically never pin it down. The Euro had the right idea overall today as did the high res GFS but both were too high on amounts. The Euro had like 4 inches in Nassau County today alone and I don't think anyone quite saw that
  20. SnowGoose69
    We are in that window now where you do not want to break out of this rain on LI or see things try to clear out...still have 30-35kts at 925mb which ordinarily is not really bad but with soaked ground we could see 10s of thousands of outages very quickly if we see the rain end and get some breaks. Parents told me Merrick is now gusting 30-31kts.
  21. SnowGoose69
    There was definitely a band of decent winds for awhile in Nassau/W Suffolk but the last 30-45 minutes it seems to be dropping back down again. Were some gusts of 28-34 for a time
  22. SnowGoose69
    As long as it keeps raining and stays largely overcast I see no issues. If however the rain breaks up or slides south it could be dangerous as it might allow enough destabilizing in the lower layers to start mixing those 925 winds down. It would not necessarily be that strong but certainly 240-260 25G35-40 would be possible and with soaked ground you'd start losing trees left and right probably under those circumstances. I think W LI/5 boroughs are the areas to watch 2-6pm to see if that might happen. My hunch now is the N shore of LI/Queens/Bronx is the spot to watch. think south of there might stay more rainy and stable
  23. SnowGoose69
    They are definitely not going to finish this golf tournament over in ERN NJ tomorrow....the axis of rain will likely sit in that area all day
  24. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I am guessing PW values are not as good because my parents place in Merrick was under pretty dark echoes earlier and got very little rain. Last night under similar DBZs the totals were higher. I think it rains steadily til 4-5pm but not sure how much falls
  25. SnowGoose69
    They are actually working through the storm because winds just are not strong enough. There's been several big outages 1-3K out on the E End and they've repaired them within an hour. I doubt LI gets more than 20-30K outages at this rate which means even if you somehow go out you're back probably by tomorrow at worst
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