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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    I mentioned it every storm. It’s the Connecticut River Valley dry nose that pushes into the metro. That’s why sometimes you’ll see central Long Island snowing before the metro airports are or even northwest Jersey, even in set ups where we get crushed the metro tends to saturate last and often has higher visibility for several hours, while those surrounding areas might be below a mile.
  2. SnowGoose69
    Euro is a hair better maybe on paper to today's setup but you'd likely end up with almost the same result, perhaps you'd see a bit more snow further south if it translated as shown but I still think thats an inland event probably
  3. SnowGoose69
    The advantages of a mid, yet not awful high position and air mass now yielding some benefits in the area....good enough to probably generate more overrunning snow than models expected and earlier to reach the ground since the surface-10,000 ft layer is not bone dry but still lousy enough you won't see it matter much on accumulations near the city
  4. SnowGoose69
    Hopefully AMO flips soon...it showed signs it might for awhile 4-5 years back but this may end up being a 35 year cycle which means we are still 7 years or so away from any flip
  5. SnowGoose69
    I posted in the NYC forum we knew back on 12/28 that 1/6-7 was favorable before 1/8-1/15 likely sucked, we now know 1/17-18 probably is favorable before 1/22-1/30 likely sucks...maybe they suck less if the MJO is weaker more like the EPS or even HALFWAY to the EPS vs the GEFS but I think for places down in SW CT and back to NJ getting snow from something there is a must or this winter is probably gonna average below normal for sure, won't be easy to even get NYC to 27-30 inches if its 0 as of 1/20 lol
  6. SnowGoose69
    Much as 1/6-1/7 looked like a favorable window 8-10 days ago before we had a week of a bad pattern likely after it looks the same to me now for 1/17....the bad pattern after is not showing just yet on ensembles really but if the MJO forecasts are correct it should begin to over the next few days
  7. SnowGoose69
    Precip is more ahead of schedule in C-PA, across E PA and SW NJ its fairly close to what 18 or 00Z runs showed yesterday as of 18Z. I do think though looking at radar presentation and fact ceilings already are down to 8000 feet in N-C NJ and that this is not a bone dry pre 03 blizzard airmass that there's a fairly strong chance it won't be 2130-22Z before the metro sees precip which many models last night had the start time as.
  8. SnowGoose69
    The 06Z GFS at 384 is a great example why a -NAO does not matter all the time...that storm extrapolated if you want to take it as gospel would probably take like a 1/87 track but there would still be significant snow at the coast before probably it switched...it shows though that the big west ridge and just the trof position being better often matters more than a -NAO. To be fair I am cheating a bit on this statement as 72 hours before the NAO is negative and we do often see storms happen during a flip but we've also had many decent snows with a huge west ridge/well positioned eastern trof and a neutral or +NAO
  9. SnowGoose69
    That makes more sense...the HREF yesterday and many forecasts in prior days I said were way too snowy in places like NE NJ near TEB/cntrl Westchester and near interior SW CT. I never bought places like Paramus, Valhalla, areas along 15 in Fairfield seeing like 7-8 inches at all from this. Those places getting totals like that and NYC seeing nothing usually only occurs in setups like those bastardized miller Bs where you have low level S-SE flow that is weak and penetrates the coast immediately but not inland or where you have a really marginal air mass ahead of the storm with again light e-se flow and you're like 40/31 at the coast and 37/27 up there when it starts...maybe like a 1/6/02 or 1/3/03...seeing that gradient in this sort of event would be unusual...it would typically be 25 miles more N as is shown now
  10. SnowGoose69
    I am sure the GEFS is still too strong on the MJO anyway, just a question of how much but its pretty much been too strong any time its tried to show a strong pulse the last 2 months and the Euro has been too weak, it just is a question whether it verifies closer in amplitude to the Euro or GEFS
  11. SnowGoose69
    It is odd that the GEFS/GFS though now for the better part of 2-3 days when it shows a raging 4-5 MJO on its plots shows what is probably the most favorable pattern for snow in the MA and up the coastal plain we've had all winter but that may simply be the fact there is typically a lag so 1/17-1/22 might be okay even if the MJO is strongly in 5, but 1/23-1/30 may be where its a raging SER
  12. SnowGoose69
    I assumed 4-6 years ago we'd be going back to a -AMO soon but its been delayed to say the least
  13. SnowGoose69
    The backend stuff I do not think you'd have the snow growth required to really produce much
  14. SnowGoose69
    It has horrid mid-level cold bias for sure beyond like 8 hours. Its very up and down...it runs hot and cold. If its close to the 3km NAM/RGEM inside 12-18 I trust it but it has events where it just performs horrible
  15. SnowGoose69
    I hate the position of the high...more so for my area than Norwalk but even there I just think anything over 4 is a long shot here
  16. SnowGoose69
    Air mass was just way better and track came from further east up the coast....I am thinking SW CT and even maybe areas just N of NYC perform generally worse than most models here with this
  17. SnowGoose69
    Well physically in this setup that could not happen lol...the reason events like 2/2008 happen where it comes in way early is usually due to the high positioning. Our biggest events happen when the high center is new PWM when the event starts and usually is near southern Ontario or maybe Huron/Georgian Bay day prior. In this case the high is simply way too far north
  18. SnowGoose69
    The Euro last few years has been stupidly too cold in these events it seems so often.
  19. SnowGoose69
    Not really....I think the Newark/NYC/LGA area does have a shot for something here but you probably need to see this come in 2-3 hours ahead of what most models have now. That is an area that could if everything went right probably see like 2-3 inches.
  20. SnowGoose69
    My main concern is we lose the general more east trof post 1/15 if the MJO goes through the bad phases...but its possible we get lucky anyway if it traverses through there too weakly
  21. SnowGoose69
    Yeah it'll happen this month but probably not tomorrow. I honestly felt NYC would get 1 inch from this. I am fairly confident now they do not
  22. SnowGoose69
    I never know what to think about wave magnitude. BAM on twitter has argued historically he can find cases where insanely strong waves in weak Ninos through 4-5-6 did nothing negative to the pattern in the East and likewise where strong waves through 8-1-2 in big Ninas did nothing favorable but pointed out where a weak wave through 4-5 killed us in a weak Nino. I wonder if as some argue the MJO probably more often than not does not influence things when you have an ENSO event that is well coupled.
  23. SnowGoose69
    You have to be somewhat, that said the models have been getting increasingly fish flop worthy with it in recent days. The tendency this last 8 weeks has been GEFS too strong, EPS too weak, BOTH way too slow...so if you take that blend now, yeah you gotta be worried a bit. That would work out to a pass through 4-5-6 but faster by a decent amount than either suite shows....the thing we'd want to avoid is it failing to make the strong pass through 7-8-1 thereafter or worse, re-emerging into 3 again in early February.
  24. SnowGoose69
    RGEM can be pretty good now inside 54-60. The NAM IMO is junk beyond 36-48. the 3km really is only good inside of 30.
  25. SnowGoose69
    DT has been saying he thinks EWR/TEB/HPN see big snows. I do not really believe that as it stands now. I felt maybe the NWS map in places like NE NJ and near interior parts of Fairfield/New Haven was overdone. That said we have time still to change that idea.
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