Jump to content

SnowGoose69

Professional Forecaster
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    16,198

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    I did not see the EPS yet but the GEPS was awful at the end of the run, the GEFS you could see the PV was dropping south and within a few days we'd probably be back into a good pattern
  2. SnowGoose69
    The closest thing I recall where 2 massive cutters happened and a few days later that was snow was probably 2/2/96, there were 2 huge cutters between 1/20-1/27
  3. SnowGoose69
    Rare case we want the GEFS to be right Day 14-16...the GEPS is brutal...the GEFS you can see that if you rolled it forward the PV would drop south, the SER would probably move east and we'd be back into the same pattern we have D9-10.
  4. SnowGoose69
    My hunch is some blend of the 00z Euro and 06Z GFS happens.....historically in El Ninos we can count on the GFS in these types of storms to totally screw up the SRN stream but often can beat the Euro on the NRN stream...that said if you assume that now based on both models you can argue a SRN stream wave midway between both and a NRN stream that maybe digs less...your idea is certainly possible from that
  5. SnowGoose69
    I think it dies in 6 or 7 based on trends last 2 days. The GEFS/EPS is clearly both going down on amplitude now through 5-6. The key then is for it to not re-emerge at all into 3-4-5 before mid to late March. If it can just be dormant we'd probably have a good 4-6 week period with chances.
  6. SnowGoose69
    I think I'd rather be you guys around 1/15-1/16 than us up here. If I could put odds in Vegas now on a VA/DC snow event that misses NY in that period I would. I think anything that ejects 1/17-1/18 is an AL/TN/GA/SC snow event probably.
  7. SnowGoose69
    I do not know if you can look bad but it sure seems the GEFS has came back a notch on the MJO strength in the last 2 days...as we've seen for 2 months this year has been a rare case where the GEFS has tended to be too strong with waves, albeit its verifying better than the EPS its also been way too slow with the wave passages too
  8. SnowGoose69
    I think the lately rarely seen GFS trying to overdo the cold push/suppression idea is playing in somewhat with it looking meek...I still think that there is a better chance the system next week is a DCA/NYC south hit for sure and then there may be some follow up wave that ejects behind that but that would be a deep south snow event probably or certainly NC/SC/GA
  9. SnowGoose69
    Given how slow models have been with it it'll probably be in 6 by then
  10. SnowGoose69
    The PNA maybe going positive could mute it...I also do not buy the -NAO just vanishing like that...I think it won't end up as bad as it currently looks
  11. SnowGoose69
    It is ever so slight on JFK on the NAM 3-4,000 ft but not much. The HRRR does show max wind gust potential of 45-50kts at JFK and maybe higher on LI
  12. SnowGoose69
    They usually seem to do a good job in Dec-Feb..we've seen occasions though in Sep-Oct or Mar/Apr where we mix down better than expected. Usually the BUFKIT soundings do well though with March 2010 they sure did not. My memory is they showed no mixing down really at all
  13. SnowGoose69
    Much like last time BUFKIT algorithms do not want to mix winds down really and only indicate JFK maybe gusting 40-42...I would think just before FROPA they could have a stronger gust than that
  14. SnowGoose69
    They go snow rain snow tomorrow...I think 6...the next one I believe will miss them to the east in the end...I still lean on that thing trying to be forced a bit SE so more for DTW/TOL
  15. SnowGoose69
    I probably am being dumb by saying this because I am headed to Australia anyway for 2 weeks but all 3 ensembles basically go full blown 01-02 now D13-16 but TBH that pattern might be better than the one we are currently in...at least you have mean ridging to a degree along the W Coast or near there....we saw how the SRN US actually did see a couple of snow events in 01-02 and 11-12 in those types of patterns where you had mean ridging out west/trofing in east and it was so progressive the waves could not climb the coast
  16. SnowGoose69
    GFS/CMC going glorified FROPA 1/16-1/17 is probably exactly what we want to see at this range
  17. SnowGoose69
    As of now BUFKIT momentum transfers do not show it really mixes down outside of maybe 1 hour or 2...similar to that last event it may be the same ordeal where only immediate coast does it for a short window
  18. SnowGoose69
    I still think the 13th ends up more near the coast or just inland. I'd feel better in CLE/BUF/PIT for that than I would ORD/DTW/MKE. If that goes more east it might also more effectively set up some sort of 50/50 than if it goes up through Wisconsin.
  19. SnowGoose69
    I am straight up gonna pass out if TN/GA/SC sees a snow event 1/18-1/20 but I am way more worried about that than I am the Op Euro/CMC ideas....their ensembles sort of show that too...much more likely we see something suppressed
  20. SnowGoose69
    Yeah no doubt I'd be more worried about TN/SC/GA seeing snow on 1/18 than a cutter
  21. SnowGoose69
    Its snowing hard now...I'd say there was probably 0.2, then it melted then there was 0.2 again at 7pm...if the changeover does not get here by 830-9 with these rates an inch probably does happen but not sure they'd take another measurement.
  22. SnowGoose69
    Ways to go yet...its probably like 0.2 right now but it may turn out the 00z measurement comes perfectly timed with when the most is on the ground.
  23. SnowGoose69
    Grass is whitening in CPK now...there is no way barring something unforseen they won't see measurable snow but an inch is still a question
  24. SnowGoose69
    Yeah depends on if this dry nose gets eaten away. If it does in the next hour or so and they go moderate for awhile they might get it
  25. SnowGoose69
    They won’t measure til 00z, by then I suspect they go to rain so probbaly if they get anything it’ll be recorded as only a trace. If they get a nice burst I suspect NWS will call and tell them to get out there and measure. I was told they often do but they can’t always get someone out there in time. Whether those rumors are true or not I do not know
×
×
  • Create New...