SnowGoose69

I thought the NWS having watches out back into PA and parts of NY yesterday was gutsy based off more or less only 1 model or 2. The BGM/ALY headlines look okay now to me as far as advisory/warning but SCE and Mt Holly may be a bit generous for sure on some counties in warnings

The DT rule is really in effect with this storm, he has always talked about how fast movers get overdone by many mesos on snow amounts. I really doubt we see many amounts outside of elevated areas where this enhanced lift of more than 7-8.

Same issue as the 12/5/03 storm, models missed a subtle vort that triggered a big area of snow well in advance of the surface low so we ended up like 6-8 inches higher than the forecast in both that storm and 1/2011

It was a rare case of a busted Miller A. By the late 80s models tended to handle big storms like that coming from the Gulf well but in this case they did not see the banding nor that the high over Canada was going to hold the cold air in longer, they all showed winds going 090-110 and we stayed 060. It was Miller Bs that models continued to suck with even into the later 90s though by 95-96 once we had the ETA and the Euro Miller B busts fell off quite a bit. The final bad one I recall was in February 97 there were watches out everywhere and within 1-2 model cycles they were dropped. Still an improvement from 87 when it would have taken til the day of the event to realize we were cooked.

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F036&rundt=2025011812&map=thbCOOP72 Lots of 5-7s just inland, this one has more a surface reflection vs an anafrontal appearance so totals may be bigger. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1985/us0202.php

10am-5pm pretty much, dry slotted after that. JFK E flipped to sleet or rain briefly maybe the last 1-2 hours but LGA/EWR never did

Yeah, we wish. 2/2-3/85 is now the closest match I see

I think what he did this year was an aberration honestly, same story with Darnold as we already saw

I guess they were too far south in January 92. There were some 6-8 inch amounts near FFC-MCN in that. I still think for biggest snows right now I’d want to be a hair north of them

My money is that sucker is gonna tick north and it won’t happen. But some areas near PNS have had 3-4 before like 89/93. That storm is very similar and similar pattern to 1/27/14 which at this range was located same place and moved north gradually from there. Pattern doesn’t look as suppressive to me as 89/73

It did well last week in the SE US event but it also was having to tick NW late for the final 24-36, it was just that the NAM was so bad most did not realize it. It may be having the same progressive bias down there again with this next one as its been ticking N now the last 2-3 runs

I think they'll probably go advisories everywhere currently not in a watch, its possible the NJ county areas not currently in the watch and maybe SRN Westchester and SRN Fairfield could get 6 and reach warning but I would not be confident enough at the moment to have them in a warning. Western Passaic and Western Bergen should get 6, eastern maybe not. NYC has no bust potential on their western counties really, Mt Holly does if this comes east for sure.

Its probably too early on the development of the snow shield over MS/AL. It may be correct as far as coverage over GA/SC. The EURO AI DID have that til the last 2-3 runs when its sort of lost it. Its why I said yesterday if you live in BHM/BNA/HSV/TUP you might be close to out of the game on this realistically but if you live in ATL/AHN you were still alive

Didn't even get it then, climate report says a T that day, Pensacola I think had 2-3 inches. Dec 89 and Feb 58 are only snowfalls I can find, 2.4 in 1958 1.2 in 89

A big reason I'm tossing it is its totally botching the ensuing event down in the Deep South. I think either tonight or tomorrow the CMC finally caves on that one but the EURO AI now barely even gets precip into SRN AL/GA. To me, thats a strong sign the pattern is causing the CMC/RGEM problems and its likely to be impacting this system too

The RGEM going flatter through 24-30 is a sign its moving towards everything else eventually IMO

Used to know what the NAM indicated but not anymore, up til 6-7 years ago it always had an amped bias at 72-84 so if it was not grossly NW of everything else you knew where things stood but it underwent an upgrade in 2017 I think and since then that bias is gone

The EURO AI looks about what I expect will happen here, it may come a tad north of that in the end but I stand by the idea the CMC is wrong and maybe even the GFS now is too north

After the NAM's performance last event, even 12 hours out it should be banned from use for this storm

The RGEM does have a bit of an amped bias past 48 but even if you account for that it still would be well west of everything else. You need a 100 mile shift more or less

I'd give the RGEM no credit given the CMC's now no longer awesome performance on the 2nd storm but the ICON moving W gives me some belief maybe the RGEM gets weighted more than the Euro in the split difference in the end

It caved to everything else on the other storm so I am not sure I am too confident about what its doing. It probably ends up close to a GFS/ICON idea in the end which is middle between Euro/RGEM

God those are ballsy watch areas I have to say. If the EPS is even 50% right most of those are going to end up being dropped entirely.

Makes no sense though based on GFS track, GFS has N'ly winds and a T/Td at EWR of 32/24 when snow moves in, would probably be down to 29 degrees pretty fast and never move from there

Rare case where the #1 CIPS analog is a pretty darn close case...overall everyone from NYC to BOS was 2-5, there was definitely less of a surface reflection in this case though than this time https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1984/us0119.php