wdrag

Quite the challenge between all dry global models and scattered dustings of the mesoscale models for NYC metro (HRRR, RAP). 20F TD/T spread will dry out the potential for a flurry. I'll just go for a flurry NYC metro. Babysitting. Not monitoring AM WX.

Also... patterns beyond 7 days... can verify fairly well... some skill, but imo only, it's how we get to that pattern. I've not checked today, so I can't be sure but a few days ago when the post started... low pressure was generally modeled to our north in all 12 hour periods except around 12/5. I think we need short waves in the southern stream to dominate in tandem with the block across northeast Canada-Davis Strait. Just my 2c... but that's what I check in ensembles. Til tomorrow.

Are not ensemble wind fields 10 days in advance more conservative because of member spread (la/lo/speed)? Ditto the same thing eastern USA in the posted graphics. I think the location is more important and in this post... really looks decent for 10 days out.

sighhh.... flurry expectation continues tomorrow beginning with scattered dusting potential as early as sunrise nw NJ-se NYS. High res models picking up on this. We'll see what happens NYC...if it's a harmless flurry at the ASOS. Should be plenty of virga for NYC-LI tomorrow at the least. fwiw: I don't see any LSR wind posted from OKX/PHI (last evenings wind) What am thinking for my friends on FB: I84 corridor-NYC-LI-northern NJ: Flurries likely Tuesday with scattered brief dustings to as much as 1/2 or even 1" on a few higher terrain roads above 600 feet. Exactly where the lake effect bands occur is uncertain but I'm pretty sure of spotty brief and minor accumulations that may cause some slippery spots, especially Poconos into the northwest third of NJ, se NYS, CT-MA. Do not be surprised if it looks a little wintry for a short time Tuesday and Tuesday night. I probably won't be back on American Weather til Tuesday. Have a good day!

00Z/27 cycle still has in and near NYC and meas into far northern NJ Tuesday. Probably a mistake, but if the HRRR still has it this extensive 00Z/28...that would be nice, at least as a modeled predictor. Reality is what counts.

Just our luck...if it does flurry...asos at CP might call it 2 min of unknown (seldom seen?) pcpn.

18z HRRR...take a look for 12z-18z Tue. Might be too far south... changes to this will occur. For snow, probably good to think baby steps and see if we can get some flurries for NYC metro Tuesday... might be virga but for now... there is a chance.

and now with the HRRR image, done while trimming outside.

Meanwhile, the 12z/26 HRRR for measurable by 12z Tue in fairly steep lapse rates where they coincide with Lee of the Lakes Boundary Layer RH greater than 50% should yield a few flurries, and in the hills---scattered dustings on roads. T/TD spread more than 20F will yield virga... so that's what I'll be looking for Tuesday as the big negative for NYC CP ASOS seeing a couple minutes of flurries.

Those 12z/25 ensembles are not yet responding with only T-1" snow LI on GEFS/EPS and nil CMC. Still, there is hope. One negative I see is repeated CFP's with low pressure probably averaging Canadian Maritimes-Southeast Canada...best hope might be the 5th... I'd like to see a lot more digging on the short wave vort max's ...they look a little too far north for me (mainly north of 40). So far the 330PM 11/25 CPC 6-10, 8-14 day not budging much on temps here...still aoa. CPC has no sig hazards in the northeast yet for Dec 2-8. Hoping for model adjustments to convince me on snow events moving south to 40N into our area between 12/5-10. I can't visualize anything beyond that---not a long ranger. More of a modelologist as someone has mentioned. I can't outguess the week 1-2 ensembles.

Wow... reaching out toward nw NJ... pretty good. We exist out here in OC and SC.... lots of commuters and Met fans.

Old news from Nov 3... one attachment caught my attention... NOT a lock for the axis of max snowfall this winter (recently modeled by a strong El Niño as AVL-DCA-BWI-PHL). In other words behavior of flow interactions, ie one-two big ones, can modify the axis more northward... Read the graphic for perceptions.

At least the first 32F for the 23-24 cool season is accomplished, 12 days later than the mean of 11/13 in the POR dating back to 1869. Now to monitor for Tuesday CP ASOS flurry? as the second back side EPS short wave coming across us later that day looks pretty strong. Sfc-500MB lapse rates should be large and if enough moisture convergence and R1 RH above 50%, we'll get some flurries onto LI. I'm pretty sure of scattered I84 dusting accums in the higher terrain.

And back to Nov, where reality is more likely to be predictable the first week or so. BGM temps at 1-2P were subfreezing but our air may be arriving more down the Hud Valley. Let's get this 32 or colder NYC CP overwith either tomorrow morning or Tue-Wed. Passing harmless CP ASOS flurry chance continues Tuesday. 12z EC for Thursday? what's that mixed stuff in the area. I don't think ithese are zero chance of occurring. Trying to take this one miniscule seasonable option at a time. I'll worry about Dec once we get cyclically repeated event. coolwx links have returned.

CPC D8-14, Week 2-3, both issued 330PM 11/24, and the monthly Nov 16. This above is from a small group of NOAA CPC experts. Seems to me to warm a little above normal first couple days of Dec, then we deal Dec 5ish and beyond. SST's actually normal or below off the ne USA coast, mirroring the past 7 day trend.

Anyway, a Dec thread is posted for the Dec commentary. Right now, I continue to hope NYC CP can accomplish its first freeze and harmless passing flurry by Wednesday of this week. The freeze potential tonight might be shaky but NAM BL might be cold enough as quietly strong CAA develops the middle of this afternoon over our NYC sub forum (grinding south from upper NYS now). Flurry risk NYC CP ASOS... I think continues for this coming Tuesday with -11C at 850MB overhead as a cold trough amplifies over the the northeast USA. Lake effect potential for large amounts looks pretty good in western sections of NYS..some of that is sure to spill over the Appalachians into at least the I84 corridor as flurries and a couple of ops have flurries LI and NNJ early this coming week.

Model dreaming 00z/22 cycle and 12z/23 for about 12/5??? just single members and far too distant but maybe something of interest for part of NJ/NYS/CT? That's about all the big wintry storm stuff I can muster for around here... as of 1145AM/23. Not a topic for sure, but my hope is eternal. GGEM maybe a day or 2 sooner?

Think the EC has scattered snow showers around early next week...no meas. That's why I mentioned possible flurry. Let's see what happens with the instability and Lee of Lakes contrib to low level RH.

Will get a Dec thread started late Friday, after CPC D8-14, and week 3-4 are posted around 330 PM, in addition to their previous mid month Dec Outlook. Ensembles, as I see it, slowly depress (climo?) the jet in early Dec with blocking in Canada, especially blocking over northern Canada. Nino pattern continues with a wetter than normal southeast USA, probably encompassing our NYC subforum with at least normal precip first week of Dec. So far, snow threats through 300 hours on the multi ensembles (CMCE, EPS, GEFS) seems to be I84 northward. Would love to see NYC first freeze and northwest wind instability passing flurry accomplished by Nov 30. Seems to be a chance of both especially with the cold trough developing in the northeast USA early next week. Happy Thanksgiving!

In review: EC 2m temps that we see are imo not hi res, and smoothed. So, I've learned in clear sky rad not be misled by the EC2M. BOM did very well the past two nights lows, so the NWS BOM team has it right on what they factor into the urban BOM. RGEM 2 M this morning I think were somewhat superior to all other modeling that we see in the non-urban areas... inclusive of the NAM/HRRR/BOM etc. Glad it's over for all but NYC/LGA. Pattern ahead, still has opportunity for near 70F NYC Friday, but warmth beyond Friday looks modest. Pattern also seems to be shaping up to Nino wet east coast, or at least wetter than normal southeast-mid-Atlantic coasts as all ensembles from the 17th-27th have 1-2" along the east coast which is generally normal or wetter than normal.

And probably mostly clear skies... this should give NYC a better chance and most of Li to me looks to be a frost or freeze.. provided skies are mostly clear. Clouds reinvaded northern NJ after 130AM when I had my low of 28. Interesting this coming morning again and again Wed-Thu morning.

Where's the chill? Coming south, I do not southeast in the surface-boundary layer. Added 845AM pressure rises and dew point changes. Canadian and ECMWF 2m temps look too cold in the urban centers Sunday and Monday mornings and have lost a little faith in prospects for nudging 32F in NYC. Best chance is a north wind in this situation, not northwest. Probably wouldn't give up on Wednesday morning but MOS (USA model statistics for similar patterns) should not have a 5-8 deg warm bias error Sunday-Wednesday. I view this as learning the various model handling of fcst 2m temps without precip. NAM/GFS 2m probably more accurate than the RGEM/EC (understanding the EC that we see probably doesn't handle the urban centers very well).

None in this part of Wantage but I watched mPing a bit while baby sitting and looked like the southern edge was the NJ-NYS border. Was less extensive than I anticipated. Noticed 00z/9 EPS was better on this early mornings low temp here than the 00z/9 EC OP (32). EPS has first freeze for NYC Sunday or Monday morning with 2M temps down to 28-29F. Latest MOS from the GFS is now down to 34-35 NYC. EC-EPS has been consistent for days on near or below freezing NYC for this time frame where GFS has been warmer (I think in part due to overall 1000-500 thickness). Northerly surface wind can more easily deliver the cold with less downslope. Maybe EPS is 2F too cold for NYC but I think NYC should get down to 30-32F on one of those two days. Blend of models from NWS has 37. Interesting differences. Checked extended EPS GEFS and the option looks pretty good for 65-70F on one or more of the days 11/17-19.

How bout some ice pellets for the area of northern NJ NYC between 5 and 8p. And then spreading through se NYS and CT early tonight. Probably last 30 minutes or less. If it’s ice pellets it goes down as snow in the records, unless I’m mistaken.

This part of nw NJ...Wantage 0.18, mostly after midnight and from what I can tell CP measured as well as all of northern LI. Think we need to be cautious about dry weather Friday night-early next week. Short wave passage just south of us early Saturday might graze LI, and another apparently intensifying short wave for Tuesday morning, could lay down a few flakes of snow nw edge of the area (sleet possible north edge of the NYC subforum tomorrow night too?). Sandwiched in there somewhere is the possibility of NYC CP first Freeze between Sunday-Wednesday mornings. Took a look at the longer range ridge and anomalous warmth in the modeling roughly Nov 17-21... yes record warmth possible but right now the EPS 2m temps don't exceed 60, equaling low-mid 60s highs, below the record of low-mid 70s that period. So, within range if climo and model dispersion is capping max's in the EPS. Certainly warmer than normal.