wdrag

Looking ahead: am paying attention to Wed night-Thursday morning I84 region for a possible period of wet snow. EC-EPS pattern seems in error late next weekend-early next week, but can't be sure. The repeated EC operational idea of a NYC freeze next Sunday (12th) or Monday morning (13th) is on the table but in doubt. My concern is seemingly repeated intensifying northern stream short waves diving southeast from Canada and shutting down the strength of the CAA late next weekend, while the next short carves up the attempted ridge in the Great Lakes by next Monday the 13th. For me it's interesting in rural nw suburbs. I'd love an early start to snow season---that would. bode well. Pattern looks like it might want to warm up a bit with respect to normals late next week (18th?)??

How it played at the ASOS sites. Think this was quite an error for the SPC HREF, GFS (both NIL),.. was pretty convective on radar at midnight-2AM. I don't see any acknowledgement on TV. Truth below inclusive of ASOS and CoCoRaHs (note the Staten Island ob of Trace). NJ and NYS mesonet sites mirror the data post. HYDROLOGIC OBSERVATIONS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 747 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 :Daily ASOS precipitation and temperature data : .B NYC 1105 DH12/DRH-18/PPQ/DRH-12/PPQ/DRH-6/PPQ/ .B1 DRH-0/PPQ/PPP/TX/TN/TA/SF/SD : : 24hr Max Min Cur Snow :Id 18Z 00Z 06Z 12Z Pcpn Temp Temp Temp New Total : BDR 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 59 / 44 / 49 / / CDW 0.00 / 0.00 / T / T / T / 63 / 38 / 44 / / DXR 0.00 / 0.00 / T / 0.02 / 0.02 / 59 / 35 / 42 / / EWR 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 63 / 42 / 47 / / FOK 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 61 / 34 / 37 / / FRG 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / T / T / 59 / 43 / 45 / / GON 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 59 / 42 / 43 / / HPN 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / T / T / 59 / 43 / 44 / / HVN 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 59 / 48 / 50 / / HWV 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 60 / 39 / 41 / / ISP 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 60 / 40 / 42 / / JFK 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 58 / 43 / 46 / / LGA 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 62 / 48 / 52 / / MGJ 0.00 / 0.00 / T / T / T / 57 / 34 / 43 / / MMK 0.00 / 0.00 / T / 0.01 / 0.01 / 59 / 38 / 45 / / NYC 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / T / T / 58 / 47 / 50 / / TEB 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 60 / 41 / 42 / / MTP 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 62 / 46 / 48 / / .END $$

yes... I checked more data from climate mesonets. ...generally .01-.06 in the measurable area. Also, Central Park recorded light rain in its official 2AM observation but my guess is only a Trace. Not a rain weekend in NYC? Walt

Here's the area of coverage of measurable between 11P-4A.

WantagE NJ 0.02 so far past hour or so. Measurable occurring as EC HHH predicted. More on this tomorrow. Might be close for NYC measurable around 2 or 3A. most showers north of I80

Presuming no predawn sprinkles for the thousands camped out at Staten Island tomorrow morning. Runners can handle it. However, a few models are offering a smattering of measurable for ne PA extreme nw NJ into CT predawn Sunday. Won't bother anyone, and the dry weekend NYC should prevail... but not looking quite so rain-free as it did days ago for the northern edge of the NYC subforum. We'll see how it plays out.

Late post, in case yesterdays CoCoRaHs sampled snowfall didn't post. Catskills, w CT and w MA.

Forecasters take note: IF indeed NYC CP got down to 34.. that was about 1 degree above the ECMWF 2m temp forecast of the past several days. My guess large error for at least some NYC CP forecasters hanging on to NWS MOS. 20-29F in Sussex County of nw NJ per Rutgers climo data.

As fwiw... October temp and precip results posted with the Sept 21 Oct outlook, in the Oct thread. I won't comment further on Oct in this Nov thread..just thought you might like to check these outlooks.

You be the judge, In our NYC subforum, temps worked out, but precip not. Nationally, your call... Looks to me like a mixed bag of results.

Added ACIS Oct summary of above/below temp (degrees F) and departure from normal precip (inches).

Thank you very much. Nick up here in nw NJ highly recommends what you posted. That's my next after my Ambient 1900 goes belly up. Ambient just replaced a power supply for me and the reregister reconnected. I have two Stratus gauges to check the AW rainfall. For now satisfied, but my next will be a Davis VP2 Pro.

snowing down s of I84 in extreeeeme se NYS near Wilton CT per mPing.

Tomorrow I'll publish the CoCoRaHs snowfall... so far I've seen spotty traces ne PA, nothing NNJ & nothing se NYS but have seen 0.4 Catskills, and then Berkshires-Litchfield Hills widespread T-0.9" as of the report time. I suspect a few high terrain locations bordering NYS will have 1"+. The mixed w LI r/s was brief and inconsequential and seemed isolated (not counting for NYC first snow unless somehow CP has it). Anyway, minor late evening rain NYC subforum started Monmouth County I think around 7P. All winding down now NYC longitude westward. So again, imo, the EC early on was not as good as the GFS showing mostly a miss for NYC but within 48 hours was reasonable.

mping with rain sleet snow mix w LI, sw CT.

Good Halloween morning all! I hope it's good. Just a minor heads up for ne PA, Northern NJ northward for tomorrow morning-Nov 1. You may run into snow showers or a rain-snow shower mix, mainly high terrain Poconos-Catskills-Litchfield Hills, Berkshires and Worcester Hills. Could be a slight slushy accum on some high terrain roads (inch or less) and that mainly above 1000 feet, with coverings on the grass even down into northern and eastern Sussex County NJ to just north and west of NYC. Also fairly obvious that while our first freeze in the interior has been delayed two weeks later than average, there is little doubt that it will occur this Wednesday-Thursday-Friday mornings. Take in those dahlia bulbs and portect your favorites. 644A/31

Looking ahead: Yes I can see snow showers early Wednesday coating the Catskills/Litchfield Hills and maybe some Poconos above 1000 feet with 0.1 to 1" associated with the strong cold short wave (represented by the 5H vort max) passage. Should be some snow showers to track up there. Next Sunday the 5th might produce a band of showers for us in NYC. At this time not guaranteeing a dry weekend but the probability of rain is still rather low. Late next week Nov 8-11. Models confused on short wave dominance and trough location but interesting, with the result, a small potential first 32F NYC if the surface wind is due north (350-360 degrees). Just too far away to know how next week plays. At least early November shows some marginal interest in winter weather. Will post, if no one else does, the USA entire 31 day of October above-below normal T and Percent above/below normal precip. Probably won't happen till late Wed or Thursday from me. I'll also want that attached to the CPC outlook on p1 of the October thread. That's how I can gain confidence on reliability of long ranging.

Here are some recent numbers for the Sunday-early Monday event. Essentially this shows the EC-EPS and GEPS-GGEM-RGEM were far too far north in their predictions for qpf 06z Sunday-12z Monday, with the GFS/GEFS much-much more accurate here in the northeast USA. Note the NYC reservoir data is from before yesterdays event. So... we're 16% above normal. The GFS on large scale systems should not be trashed. Buying into the EC well in advance can be fraught with as much error as the GFS. In this case and probably the upcoming event early Wednesday... the GFS should prevail on best axis of qpf. Also...so far this season, in my mind, the GEPS-GGEM-RGEM (Canadian) has slipped to #3 behind the GFS, EC. I don't look at any other model too closely beyond 60 hours...don't have time and its a bit of a distraction for me when I';m trying to gauge reliability. 1003A/30

Could but not likely at least PHL- to Toms River northward. My guess per 12z/29 FOUS...not nearly enough south wind, imo

Might be...looks can are deceiving beyond 3 days but certainly. colder than normal first 11 days of the month. First freeze of the season this Thursday or Friday morning some of our interior CLI sites that Bluewave posted last week.

I think models are trying to say too far offshore for Wednesday (still tbd), but the CMCE and EPS still want to try for trace-1/2" snow cover New England-Catskills. Strong short wave no doubt, so I can see a band or two of snow showers Pocs/Catskils/nw NJ but not biting on anything significant yet for high terrain roads out there. Otherwise, no large snow threats looming, in my mind, prior to Nov 8. After that, chilly rain possible around the 9th-10th. As far as weekends go for the NYC subforum, a fast moving trough next Sunday might yield a band of light showers? Am not so hot on this as have been for today's action, whatever that may be. 00z/29 24 hr qpf ensembles as seen on tropical tidbits are very very weak on the next Sunday idea.

Good Sunday morning... I see it's measured in many parts of NYC metro this morning in the 3A-6A time frame. Does that qualify as a rain day for the weekend? It may not do too much today but it should rain or drizzle some more with most of the action a little north of I80.

Still no change from my view to the above based on the 12-18z/28 ops. I think EC is fading for early Wednesday, and so lthat eaves the Canadian still tying to hit us, and missing us early Wed and missing LI Sunday. I don't think the Canadian will be correct. fwiw... showers all the way from nw of Scranton (Justus-Roba Family Farms) to Branchville NJ this past afternoon. RRFS/HRRR best modeling and mainly shorter term. temps dropped 13F out there between Noon and 430P near Scranton PA higher terrain.

Keep following the modeling. I'm looking at SPC HREF, HRRR, and RRFS which all sort of nail everything periodic rain north of I78... however, as you note...it's possible the NAM and further N RGM will be correct. RGEM has been constantly north. I favor getting closer to the instability for showery precip and is why I initially favored the further south GFS/GEFS in the longer ranges leading up to this event. Tomorrow keys early Wed. If GFGS right tomorrow, then I too think it will be correct early Wed. Will check back tomorrow.

Not yet buying into the EC-GEM-UKMET cold precip scenario for Wednesday morning in our NYC subforum. Mainly using what happens here Sunday-tomorrow, as a marker for what happens here regarding the fast moving coastal option for early Wednesday. For now, imo, its the GFS NO vs the EC-GEM-UKMET-WPC wet (or elevation wet white) scenario for early Wednesday. I probably won't have opportunity to comment again til early Sunday. 10/28 639A based on 00z-06z/28 cycles including ensembles.