wdrag
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Everything posted by wdrag
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Also, I think there is a lot to learn from NTSB aircraft incident reports...the way they are investigated, written, referenced.
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No specific reference; It's a forum. I get excited too, but too many failures direct me to restrain my spoken thoughts. For now, I dont know exactly what is ahead except it's worthy to monitor but for a wider area than just our NYC subforum. For sure, this future is looking a little better than December.
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For those who want a big one that is less Thread the Needle so to speak, I like a big upper low formed off DE traveling out to the bench mark, having been formed from short waves diving se from the upper midwest and joining forces with a southern streamer and timing out to our south. Those are the ones with large areal deep snows, plenty of 850MB easterly flow (50kt) and presumably cold enough surface high to the north. This one coming up doesn't look like that... it has hope if the latitude can be us. I'm sure 3+ between I80 and Montreal as is WPC via their implied D6-7 in their 10% two days of 3+ in the northeast. For now, it's not worth a thread for me.
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Sigh... Can I ask to lower excitement. Think of yourselves in the cockpit of a 737 and you blow out a door. Composure wins... good learning experience for those up and coming in life to maintain vigilance, follow procedures and ensembled guidance for a safer approach both work and family, an approach that can be at least a partial win for the large adjunct Atlantic Ocean subforum and subsequently a more positive outcome. Yesterdays CNN has details of the Cockpit Voice Recorder on how that 737 door incident was handled. Calm-procedural. For me that will have to be ensembled and remember the Canadian has to have it (my relearned lesson AGAIN the past failed thread) Modeling for the 06z/7 GFS op doesn't fit the ensembled short wave scenario (intensity and therefor big dump in a few hours). If the resulting storm is weaker, less advection fields, less lift, etc etc. Give this a chance. Ptype and T at D6 can be a little shaky and for snow, its a fine line, as we all know. On snow depth: That's all that was available for the smaller geography shown but we have none now, so consider that a start for adding some snow. Back tonight.
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Will revisit at 530PM and then, if good, all the ensemble guidance for this event will post plus BOM which is under 1.5" or less NYC and LI -07Z version.
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CMCE and EPS Positive Snow Depth change under 1" NYC, but 10 to 1 EPS does have 2-3 as the GEFS. If the models were that good at 6-7 days nailing Ptype/Temp, wow. But they're not--just the idea that event is coming to the northeast USA. Think we can wait before stirring more certainty.
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GEFS 10 to 1 has 2" NYC but Positive Snow Depth Change under 1". Think it best to wait til 630PM ish this evening, rather than chase something that is 1" or less this far out. Has some hope.
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Will look at this closely for a thread, if NYC can show 2+ on the 06z GEFS... for now, think I'd ;like to wait til this evening. It is 6 days out.
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My call 6+. His call I dont know, but I do know that we're not talking 1-3" climo.
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Regarding winter prospects last two weeks of Feb. CPC Friday week 3-4 (appended) and Tomer mirror each other, drier and cooler than normal here. It's ensemble guidance and imperfect. A bump north and we're good as Bluewave mentioned. My problem: the D8-14 from the NAEFS still has us warmer than normal 11th-18th., albeit attempting to cool around the 14th and after. So what? Cause, the 06z/3 GEFS 24 snow depth change appended here, shows what we may be suspecting. Elevation dependent snow snowfall is more prominent and inland (climo?). Think it might take a while to rid ourselves of the modified Pacific airmass which at this point in my mind doesn't bode well for NYC/LI. At least the SST's are near normal. So my hope for this pattern to produce continues, in part due to the more favorable 5H structure, in part due to a reliable long ranger that likes the option for a decent megalopolis snowstorm this winter- (communications since last summer), and in part due to what I see is the verifying CNN story Dec 2 post, appended. I just need to live well outside of weather, prior to something budding favorably. If interested-click the graphics for a little more clarity.
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Update the initial Jan thread with monthly verification and comments.
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fwiw..I added the CPC updated Feb outlook from Jan 31 to the initial thread so we can look back.
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helps if we have snow cover for the colder period... presume all saw the new weeklies issued today (is the hope going to verify in our favor later Feb-early March?)
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Unfortunately, in the end I like the Canadian with snow, otherwise. I sure hope we can get something those last two weeks of Feb.
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Unlikely 12z/31 NAM solution for nearby NYC snow Thu night-Fri morning. Not on the 06z Canadian RGEM, nor on 00z/31 GEFS/CMCE ensembles. Doesn't mean it can't happen but my guess is that there will be above freezing layers aloft to make this wet NYC, icy w - n suburbs if its nearly this extensive.
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And the winnah... the NAM and GFS (USA modeling) and Canadian as well vs the nil ECMWF. Shallow RH, weak lift and here's the results. I also added the NBM from 8PM the 29th which had a touch but am sure it was diminished by the nil EC. Also, I don't think it captured elevated slightly heavier small flake snowfall. imo, no model can be disparaged every time... I don't. Sometimes frustration-yes! and the NBM is imperfect but a nice starting point, Here's the melted water equiv and snowfall from CoCoRaHs overnight. Please click for your clarity if you wish
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This part of Wantage 0.1" very fine flake snowfall and still ongoing at 31.5. No problems on pavement.
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flurries expanding NYC/LI at 650 PM and am pretty sure interior NNJ will see 0.1- to iso 1" ridges ne PA and SC nw NJ by unrise whereever temps now 33F or colder. It's modeled -8C at the top of moist layer near 850MB...so ice nuclei available. That may disappear toward sunrise when snow changes to drizzle/freezing drizzle-sleet then gradually end. by Noon. SFC temp determines whether freezing or non. I think there's a pretty good chance of whitening of the ground..maybe not CP but outskirts of the urban centers have a very good chance of whitening, especially NNJ-ne PA. Enjoy whatever happens.
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So the bogus 00z-06z/30 NAM..possibly too cool tonight NYC but still has a touch of snow...freezing drizzle...ice pellets much of western LI thru NNJ. Shall we ignore it? EC nothing and already busting on no fragments of icy wintry precip occurring MA, RI e LI NJ and PA. I think it will happen. Spotty 1/2-1" hills of NNJ into ne PA? GFS and HRRR have it tonight so could be a little slick in spots outside the city later tonight. Overall the future doesn't offer anything substantial east of the Apps next two weeks. ATTACHED 10 day NBM snowfall. Click for clarity. btw I notice some NYC TV doesn't seem to check mPing... here in Wantage we had some graupel-Trace.
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Click for clarity if you're interested in snowfall for this weekends I84 event. The 2 day would slightly more ne PA but this was the essentials. Repeating a little from this morning's wrap. You'll note via initial thread issuance, that the EPS prob of 1" ended up the worst of the outlooks. No single model is best every time but the NBM blend works, especially as the NWS has incorporated many elements that we don't see here outside the NWS domain via National Blend of Models (NBM). Any future initialized winter threads for NYC will incorporate the National Blend of Models (NBM) which did very well on this non-event south of I84 and am sure was part of the guidance for the conservative NWS deterministic snow forecasts. I've seen this NBM perform well on big rain events. This is my first winter utilizing it. I'll make sure it is added to the initial thread issuance in the future, in addition to the globals EPS probs and EPS positive snow depth change, which will make a routine of 6 graphics plus the NBM graphic. 29/659P
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I'm aware this was a wrong forecast south of I84. I'll post maps of snowfall this evening. You'll note via initial thread issuance, that the EPS prob of 1" ended up the worst of the outlooks. No single model is best every time but the blend works, especially as the NWS has incorporated many elements that we don't see here outside the NWS domain via National Blend of Models (NBM). Any future winter threads for NYC (if there are any?) will incorporate the National Blend of Models (NBM) which did very well on this non-event south of I84 and am sure was part of the guidance for the conservative NWS deterministic snow forecasts. I've seen this NBM perform well on big rain events. This is my first winter utilizing it. I'll make sure it is added to the initial thread issuance in the future (if there any) in addition to the EPS probs.
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about an inch I think from earlier pictures. Moderate sleet shower lower Wantage 4-415. I think we're going to stick during the night... not much and way less than ensembles but a little snow is coming, especially this evening ne PA and NW Nj, eventually to translate to I95-NYC- near PHL by morning. Lowest of the day right now at 33.3
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So far. It’s icy up there and snow should accumulate by sundown
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Unsure...follow NWS map attached. Should be snowing Mt Pocono now. 32F. NWS WPC broad area probs for 1 and 4 attached. Go to PHI home page and then theirwinter wx page and that will give you probs of various amounts.
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Rain-wet snow mix at 640A at 740' elevation. Temps northern SC 33-34F except 31 at the HP Monument.
