wdrag

Scattered light showers this afternoon Poconos, (had sprinkles yesterday forenoon nw NJ), then probably periods of chilly rain Sunday-Monday NYC subforum. This is important because it was the EC that was initially very warm and dry today and it had a hard time dropping south. Nothing in the bag yet for tomorrow but I use this as a marker for whether the EC-GEM combo for tomorrow was way too far Northwest, as compared to the GFS ie no rain here vs rain on the GFS)... ditto for the November 1 snow threat as outlined by others in the Nov thread.

A period or periods of rain Sunday to keep the consecutive weekend rain events going? Models tending to edge a little south on the axis into our area And, if we get this one (whoever is counting), I can see another rain event next weekend (4th or 5th) as the sharp trough Tuesday morning passes, ridging quickly follows end of the workweek and then shortwaves chip away at the ridge next weekend. How it goes down both weekends, uncertain but favorable for a period of rain in the NYC subforum, imo. Also, dissapointing to hear the 5AM TV weather forecast for Halloween (31st). Chilly yes, qpf...I don't think that is favored and am not in the 00z/26 EC op camp for Tuesday. Finally: fwiw... your color may be pretty good where you are, and we certainly have some, but this is not nearly as colorful a year here in this part of nw NJ as compared to last. Maples lost their leaves too soon, and much less color. More yellows than reds. Enjoy the warmth this week. 619A26

No winter 23-24 outlook thread? Surprised...per all the very good Philly area mets. Maybe I'm looking in the wrong subforum.

I wish I could recommend Tempest, but cannot due to my own disappointment. Nothing is perfect. My Ambient just had a power supply failure after almost two years in existence and another is being sent to me free of charge. Power hit took it out. I'll stay with Ambient but if it fails again within a year, I probably will opt for greater expense Davis (which I hope will be more reliable). I scrolled off NYC subforum and found this topic of interest.

Also, what's the criteria for verifying rain this weekend? CP .01 anytime? Appreciate someone laying out the criteria for me. Thanks, Walt

Not sure if anyone is noticing but modeling is now showing sprinkles into the NYC subforum by daybreak Saturday and quite a difference in axis of qpf Sunday. with the EPS-GEPS well north of the GEFS. The GEFS sort of nails the northern half of the NYC subforum (I80ish north). Shall be interesting. Already had scattered showers this morning just north of I90.

Hopes for the first measurable snow of the 23-24 cool season for at least interior sections, and when will the first freeze occur at the various climate sites? Added the CPC October 19th November Outlook (click for clarity), to be verified on December 1, as we will do the same for October on November 1. Reliability for the 4 week period with 6 week notice is challenging. Let's see what happens with these monthly outlooks. Verification added on December 3... basically looks a little weak on skill.

Sunday still a decent chance for a period or two of rain per GEFS/GEPS (00z-06z/24 ensembles), but the steady EC-EPS keeps it north or extreme north edge of the NYC subforum. In the meantime, good time to garden cleanup..great week for the outdoors. 716A/24

Certainly looks like a dry start to the weekend per attached WPC 7 day qpf through 12z Sunday the 29th... I'm still not giving up on weekend rain, but odds seem to push any weekend rain threat to later Sunday, if then. Have checked ensembles through the 00z-06z/22 cycle.

Yet again?: Next weekend (28-29) from two days ago continues to shape up with a frontal boundary in the area along with low pressure and a chance of rain. Modeling variable on cold/warm rain, timing-duration?? but I think we're edging toward another period of rain sometime next weekend. No guarantee but I am looking for this occurrence.

Yet another weekend (your count consecutive) with rain (possibly chilly?), sometime Oct 28th-29th. Seems to be shaping up with a frontal boundary south of us and a wave of low pressure associated with ensemble modeled strong ridge of middle of next week being depressed by short waves crossing northern USA next weekend. Ensemble 24 hr qpf has it... weak signal right now since I think modeled confusion for what northern USA short wave might dominate in the 9-11 day period. For now, I think this is a reasonable chance... but not a guarantee. Minor wet snow accumulation risk near I90 high terrain 22nd-23rd seems to have waned but might be a better chance extreme north-northwest edge (Pocs, Catksills, Litchfield Hills) high terrain of our NYC subforum the weekend of the 28th-29th? (very few NYC subforum members). 19/636A based on 00z-06z/19 global ensembles and ops of the EC/GFS/GGEM.

Been away but I see max axis rainfall in the NYC subforum was further N than the Canadian-RGEM, and that the Canadian will have been wrong on Tue-Wed storm. Mental notes for myself. Added yesterdays two day CoCoRaHs if it wasn't previously posted.

Wantage NJ, this southern part 0.17 as of 1135A.

As mentioned by others above -more or less 1/2" or so northern edge near to just north of I80 for Saturday. Maybe the early clue was the GGEM of several days ago, the only model showing way south of GEFS-EPS. Think it's now GGEM/RGEM best model the rest of the cool season barring a TS situation. Even the last FFWatch situation the Canadian models were down. Which brings me to Tuesday(17)-Wednesday(18)... might be something to watch for a strong coastal off NC-VA edging northeast or east-northeast. The GGEM from a few days ago was the only model showing this becoming a pretty sizable rain-wind event back to NJ-LI. Evolution of the Saturday (14th) short is not closing off, but its remnant and central North America feeder short waves may close this upper trough into a deep cyclonic low just east of VA. Am watching daily trends...still 5-6 days away so can't be sure, but that one to me is my own greater wind/rain interest for the NYC subforum, and then whatever can evolve next weekend. So this weekend, rain yes... but amounts 1+ seem to me to probably be mostly south of I78. Mesoscale excesses: This last failed FFW situation near NYC has me make a change in assessing. If I see those mesoscale models go ballistic (5+ in 24 hours), I want to make sure I have Global ensemble assurance of about 3+. I can always see bands of heavier than ensemble (and bands of less as well), but radically higher than the ensemble, I'm not so sure and I need to be conservative buying into the RRFS/HRRR/NAM excesses. Finally: while cool, it still hasn't dropped below 37F here in this part of Wantage NJ... seems to be a less than colorful leaf peeping season in this part of the world.

Ensembles through 00z/11 this weekend: trending south and not heavier. Monitoring but nothing close for me to prompt a flood impact topic.

From myself: a fun look if it was winter... not enough qpf here for me to think topic, at least not yet. Have a day!

Still in my mind uncertainty regarding timing and amounts of rain NYC subforum based 00z/06z global ops and ensembles. I saw a channel broadcasting 2-3" amounts in parts of the area this weekend. Could be, and I think the CMC 00z/9 version is wrong (too far south) being dry here, but yet it is a consideration for my incorporation. AI day6 does have low prob excessive in central-s NJ. Noted ensemble pattern seems to favor some sort of rain event the following weekend as well (21st-22nd) but the 24 hour yield is not much, so far. 718A/9.

I just checked (00z/8) machine learning AI and there is no GEFS outlook of excessive rain, even the lowest probs. Remembering for yesterday..the SPC HREF had no probs of 1,2,3" in 6 hours. Obviously that was wrong for 1 and 2 but it was not concentrated probs, so for me modeling is suggesting, caution ahead til we get closer. Those SPC HREF probs differed for the big one on the 29th when there were 6 hours probs for 3" near NYC.

Noted on Rain totals from late Thursday through Monday of early next week. ENS amounts are generally near 1.4". Far too early for me to tell if it will be a bigger event, and timing is very different between the Canadian and USA models (CMC vs GFS) with CMC models mostly next Monday here in the NYC subforum.

here is a graphic of mutisensor rainfall (appropriated from another non forum post) but easily available on line.Check the verified max axis (this graphic and CoCoRaHs) with the mesoscale modeling and it was a good fit, just too heavy in our NYC-CT-NYS border slot.

CoCoRaHs two day amounts (really Friday night-Saturday: No 3" as far as I can tell. Mesoscale models tended to be way overdone. 1.5" this part of Wantage. I may add an update for two day radar assessed, later today.

Wantage NJ 1.4" as of 1055A..official and relayed NWS. Ambient reading 1.48.. a bit too high. I see an FFW near Monticello.

Wantage NJ at least 1.1" since 8A, Ambient says 1.2" but the stratus will be less as the automated gages tend to run a touch high. Walt 10A/7

Rainfall rate in that band in Sussex County over 1.3/hour. Here at home about .65 in the last 1.5 hours. So it is raining and I saw a CH4 news flood extraction in ne NJ earlier this morning so it is raining hard in spots.

Just saw numerous 1.5-2" amounts in a band ne NJ. Plenty of time to crank the numbers ne NJ/se NYS/w CT. Here's a sampler of 8AM reports via CoCoRaHs. Looks like plenty of rain incoming from s of NYC.