wdrag
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Everything posted by wdrag
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Wantage NJ 4sw pavements wet but 0.1" slushy snow on all surfaces. 32.4. rain changed to snow at this 740' elevation sometime after 3A. I know DPW is working higher elevation CR nw part of the county. Walt 431A Temp was 59 at 3P yesterday.
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So you have the models to follow. It's yours. I think this is an elevation dependent and that participants above 1000 feet Poconos, northern part of Sussex County east and northeast will see slight untreated pavement acc with up to 1-1.5" on grass. Further n in se NYS through CT and Mass, as you see it modeled...take the conservative approach but numbers are larger. I look at 2m temps of the 3K NAM and HRRR to help determine where it can stick during pcpn. At night 32.5F for pavement, lower temps during the daylight 2hrs after sunrise. At my house in Wantage NJ where it hit 59F at 3P, and now down to 55, am thinking T-0.1 slime acc on some untreated pavement (740' MSL) and maybe 0.2-0.4 on grass with the rain changing to wet snow at times beginning 1A-3A and most of the snow damage, whatever it is done by 8A. The max band may shift from where we see it modeled so obviously, can be variations. For those who like snow in the nw-ne suburbs, might be worth getting up at 3-4A to reacquaint with snowflakes. After 8A, I think accums may be difficult. My last on this today.
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Just a little patience for all of us... yes its hard to believe it will be 60F here in Wantage NJ near 2P and possibly convective rain mixing with or changing to wet snow 15 hours later at 5A. That's what I'll be looking for tomorrow morning if modeling continues similar on the 18z and 00z/21 cycles.
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Maybe so? but am pretty sure a stripe of 1+" tomorrow morning on the northern edge of qpf coming this eve from sw PA (already on radar as rain s of PIT). 12z GFS not far behind now, as are 12z/20 WRF ARW and WRF NSSL modeling. (my chagrin for not checking the 00z modeling of these two which also had it). So, tomorrow morning we'll know if indeed the NAM and recent two cycles of WRF ARW and WRF NSSL are too robust. and also the the 12z GFS. 12z/20 SPC HREF has spotty elevation dependent 1"+. We may kind of know by the 18z RGEM (4P), whether it buys in more fully or fades as you think. NAM probably feeding off its banding signal that last for 3 hours as it travels newd along I84 06z-12z. Here is the SPC HREF for tomorrows's wet snow acc, elevation dependent and mostly untreated surfaces. Watch the convective release late day. Interesting?
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Impressive 12z run of the NAM... we'll see if it holds. Definitely isolated thunder hail, SW/RW late Tuesday after morning snow/rain dividing line just nw of NYC.
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Still days away but I think we begin wintry mixes I84 corridor Tue with high elevation accums (1000'?). 18z/18 EC NAM and RGEM joining on this with the RGEM the warmest but am expecting it to cool slightly and look little more wintry down to I84 in future cycles. Presuming am correct, as op modeling settles on waves of pressure falls rolling east along I80 instead of a full blown 990sMB low for Thursday into the Adirondacks (Ala GFS), then the marginally cool enough for ice airmass along I84 will be difficult to displace. As usual pay attention to trends that are firm and not windshield wipering cycle to cycle, and go from there. Myself I favor an I84 burst of sleet-snow to ice Wed afternoon-night and lingering freezing precip in the elevated portions into forenoon Thursday, possibly DRifting south Thu night. Too warm to hold snow for long except maybe n MA border? Could there be a few ice pellets in NYC Tue morning around 15z? and better chance Wed afternoon? Thermal profiles are compromised yielding full potential, lacking full sun Sunday-Thursday. Interesting temp challenges NYC LI EWR next few days with the nearby cooler coastal waters.
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Yes... expecting Canadian modeling to cool a little as we draw closer, as its typically a warmer model so when it says ice and snow, need to pay attention. Not sure if anyone is noticing how the OP models are weakening the low center now into the 1006MB range... as many cycles ago advertized by the ensembles, as weak waves of pressure falls cross nPA and out s of LI. I don't see much support for a 990s low to the Adirondacks. Am expecting a southward edging track to the GFS, more in line with the weakening EC as it tracks east along I80. This puts big time warming for NYC-LI and NNJ n of I80 in doubt, especially if enough precip falls to form a low ovc along the warm frontal boundary. In these somewhat flat upper level flows, low pressure is imo too deep and cycles closer to the verify time should weaken (relatively flat flow). Will check back tomorrow but as it see, periods of hazardous weather are ahead for at least the elevations of I84 for the next week or two possibly beginning as early as Tuesday.
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anyone notice the latest 18z/18 NAM for the I84 corridor?
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CPC post this afternoon is attached... before it gets flamed on its southern edge... lets figure out way such an intense low 990s is going to head for the Adirondacks for 2/23-24? All 12z/16 ensemble means (tropical tidbits ensemble and select MSLP/PWAR) are 10-20MB weaker and more direct for the Catskills... which at least leaves an ice option on the table for 2/23-24 for the nw-ne suburbs.
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EGO=greed as well.
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I guess this belongs in banter. CNN headline. Flowers and trees blooming up to 3 weeks earlier than normal in the Eastern US
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Following up: There was no sleet on the northern fringe but there was rain as Digital radar from OKX, CoCoRaHs show here, plus added are the 06z/13 ensemble assessment of 5H, 8H T departure from climo, 8H flow and 7H flow as patterns to consider in future northern fringe of southeast USA cool season upper low pressure systems.
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I guess interest has been dismissed for a part of the NYC subforum on the developing ECWS (mostly rain I95 coast). Not I, not yet. Going to be interesting... of concern to me using SREF/EC/GEFS...is the warm Canadian. I usually favor the Canadian model... It's drifting slightly to a little more snow mix but not much. Outcome is of interest to me, as well as the NNW fringe MD-PA-NNJ-Boston area. Obviously it's rain where most members live... monitoring with interest as enough cold air seems to lurk along the nw fringe. Could be a big GFS failure. Did notice latest 06z/11 EC is spraying a harmless r/sleet./snowmix to Philly now. FGEN may play a significant role far nnw part of the 700MB low.
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No change in thinking from yesterday on n-nw of ULL messy potentially wet snowy axis near I84 Sunday afternoon-night. 0z/9 SREF shows MAX axis of concern, the edges shaky. through 00z/Monday, before getting going I84 corridor, if it is to get going.
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Central PA Winter 2022/2023
wdrag replied to Blizzard of 93's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I don't want to push this NW of the I84 corridor, not yet anyway. Is worthy of monitoring. If nothing happens because it goes out to sea south of I80, then so be it. -
I haven't seen anything that discards the potential. Have informed my FB friends.. possibly 1" snow ATL Sunday morning, altering travel into western NC and western VA mountains Sunday with potential for widespread mountain power outages due to ice-wet snow accums, and potential slippery mixed mess for a few hours interior suburbs BWI-BOS Sunday night, presuming it precipitates up here.
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fwiw... if the ULL tracks east, probably no go for us n of I80 but if the ULL tracks 1 or 2 degs further N, then I think the I84 corridor has a good chance of deformation zone snow (4") in n-nw edge of 7H LOW where FGEN-convergence occurs. I'll be watching trends in the modeled 7H-5H lows the next several days. In the meantime, 12z op model heights at 500MB are generally 30-60M higher than the 12z EC op. That makes a significant difference in ptype nw edge. Thermal profile are marginal but I'm pretty sure if models reverse the se trend in today's models, that we'll see a pretty decent amount of snow in the Pocs-I84 corridor. This still has a chance to edge a little further north than recently modeled. It's not an overwhelming amount of cooling in the column that is needed, in my opinion. It's latitude of the 7H-5H low that I think is important fgen significant snow N of I80. For reference check some Novak, Grumm, Bosart, Evans etc on banding,
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Looks like the GFS has been the first to consistently highlight a potential heavy wet snow stripe associated with an ECWS. The EC-EPS got on board yesterday, and the Canadian finally capitulated overnight. Now the question, how far north and west does this actually get, and the thermal profiles where it does precipitate. You all will be all over it. Not much I can add. My first concern is the interior highlands of the Carolinas and western VA high terrain for possible heavy wet branch clingy snow. Still early and plenty of uncertainty, especially ptype. EDUGGS had the most faith. WBC is not yet on board. I'd monitor their afternoon D4 winter outlook for an updated idea of their concerns, if they do have any and if the early arriving 12z/8 model runs continue supporting. I'm pretty confident if this precip shield makes it to the I84 corridor including nw NJ hilly areas, that it will be mostly snow. 00z/8 EPS fun. Added raw EPS freezing rain, which I usually take about 30% for glaze thickness. Also the +snowdepth change from the EPS. I like conservative in marginal temperature situations, especially D5.
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We all saw the GFS continue with its ECWS with it's past 3 cycles (cyclically consistent) 18z/6, 00z/7, 06z/7. EC/GGEM and those ensembles are/were not excited. I'm waiting another day before buying in. Part of the upper air has been there but I don't like trends showing an esewd peeling to the 500MB trough, which would give NC/VA the best shot at some snow. I'll be off line all day and still looking for late Feb or March as a better fit for us (kick the can?)
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Last 10 days of Feb: I like the trend of the GEFS 500MB... more and more looks to build heights over AK and some 850MB ensemble guidance is showing very cold air for that late Feb period building across sw Canada and possibly a little of that spilling EAST to the Great Lakes and Northeast. I like this. It's pretty clear to me in the guidance that mid month begins a cooling in the northern USA. I can't make any inferences beyond Feb, cause long ranging is so difficult but I do know we need an AK ridge to pool-build dense cold air in Canada. If other ensembles trend this way, I'll be thrilled...especially if they hold as we get closer to Feb 20.
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So I read conflicting info... is it SSW we're paying attention to? or an SFW? It seemed to me that big NH SSW's occur JAN-early Feb and that SFW's are the feature Mar-May?
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SFW: Looks complicated and determining whether warming actually occurs first at 1 hPa or 10 hPa. I'm not dependent on SFW-SSW for weather but respect it's place in research and attempted outlooking. I guess, I interpret the early SFW meaning a possible -NAO in spring? But then is the -NAO in spring as favorable for blocking and snow here? Don stats say no but sample size looks tiny. I'll look at 2/11 for now and note the GEPS is finally on board with the EPS at 500MB and all have a little qpf here in a colder scenario. GEFS might be too fast to the east but was first cueing us to the potential. Also fwiw...the immediate coast seems to be missing what will soon be a very large ocean storm grazing Cape Cod (late Monday the 6th) and modeling is basically agreeing on closing off a low aloft just to the s-se of CC
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Thanks.... will be on the lookout in April.
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Yours looks good... I kinda like this as a recent choice. Oh and where did snowman19 go? He is smiling..I told you no snow...
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I am in agreement...that single member anomaly map includes the two 5 day very warm periods ending there 10th and 18th. I'm seeing anomalies cooling after the 19th...all ensembles. That could just mean climo???? or it could mean the modeling hasn't decided whether the AK ridge returns per GEFS and shoots big time cold air into the northern USA (we need an AK ridge to have hope, especially if we don't have blocking near Greenland) or... we continue the oft disgusted warm winter. I don't know but I am looking for a pretty good event coming here around 11th. Whether its all rain or some sort of mixed bag, I don't know, Canadian doesn't have anything like the GEFS 5H trough which continues to amplify in successive cycles ending 06z/4 .It's up to the GEFS two lose it, like it did for this coming Mondays (6th) 7day advance storm signal, or the Canadian to start seeing it. Off line all day.
