wdrag

spotty 1/2 yesterday.

Focus on big storms 8+ days in advance? Maybe this one will work for 1/13-16? I'm more worried about spotty 5" of rain in our NYC subforum (CT/NJ or even se NYS) than 5" of snow. We're not done on front end snow but model thinking seems wetter than white. Meanwhile: Modeling is trying to offer PHL and NYC their first measurable snow of the season at sunrise Monday. and Yesterday, MA did okay (1-3") with the snow, and far northern CT as well as Pocs had some T-1/2" amounts. Close but bust on looking out from 12/23-24 GFS ideas +SNOD Change. For me it illustrates that 100 miles can make quite a difference at D8-16. Has in part to do with modeling of the features aloft. That's why tempering enthusiasm at those time frames is probably wise. I think mPing may be fun early Monday. Probably melts on contact in the cities but still for me, a worthy future review.

Quick check on what occurred yesterday. T-spotty 1/2" Poconos and N CT and general 1-3" MA isolated 4. Just too warm from prior record and modeling could not hold 500MB closed low as far south across PA as initially modeled (was opening e-ne from CHI across NYS). BUST here but fairly close and good taste for MA- a first I think, in 2 weeks there. Modeling is trying again for early Monday. Accept whatever we can get.

Presume everyone Is aware of the small hail reports (mPing) to our southwest in e PA and n MD? Interest there may translate into lots more interest along I84 in CT tomorrow morning.

fwiw: unconfirmed but mPing recently brief IPW- s of KPVD (modeled sounding looked a touch too warm but I don't know?) and pea size hail north of DCA. It's definitely becoming convective in n MD as of 730P. Should be a nice round of rain coming soon (overnight) for the bulk of the subforum.

I've refired the 12/23 Jan 6 portion of this discussion in nw-ne suburbs. Those up there may want to see if this works. This also is part of 12/23-24 GFS cue. No question we have to flush out yesterdays record temps but an unstable moist lapse rate + the strong 5H short wave may be inducing low pressure near LI tomorrow and resulting in a widespread expanding mixed precip event as marginally cold air arrives on ne winds from N. Hampshire. The NAEFS a few days as posted here, was maybe as much as 5C too cold for 00z/6 but what models were discarding for the past few days seems to be developing some consensus for a first minor whitening of the ground I84 high terrain since at least 12/23. One little event at a time.

Good morning NW-NE suburbs I84-- Elevation-boundary layer temp dependent. I don't want to complicate (interrupt the focus on 1/14/23 storm), so I'll drop this in here and maintainer unless I see wet snow wrapping south across e LI late Friday. Unsure if you're noticing gradual increases in modeled snow depth change for the higher terrain of I84 tomorrow. This tracks back to 12/23-24 via GFS. While it's not yet a done deal... too many models are showing wet snow up there-here, at elevations. I'm pretty sure it's going to get slippery for a time in high terrain above 1400 feet tomorrow. Especially Catskills, interior CT-MA. Watch the colder BL air seep southwest from NH. What may happen is rain changes to wet snow top-down in a convective embedded within stratiform (possibleBC leaf) as a fairly strong short wave induces low pressure to newly develop s of LI. If the temp is 35 during the rain, I think the snow will cool the air temp to 32.5 or so and at least permit acscums on grass/cars. If you consider the HRRR having a tendency to be slightly warm, then the HRRR would be you conservative approach. But the Canadian Models and increasingly the NAM are slightly adding snowfall for 1/6. Presuming this occurs, I think this would be the first wintry event of snow-sleet since 12/23. This might be interesting for a few of our members. I'll check back 5-8P and see if this is a reasonable expectation.

Good Monday morning and a belated Happy New Year, Jan 6: not looking good south of the I84 corridor elevations. GFS-GEFS trends have been a little north the past day for so and CMCE and EPS a little south. Just looks too warm I-80 corridor south. As for I-84 elevations, a little ice Thursday afternoon or night and then maybe some convective snow bursts with the vort max Friday morning dumping possibly a quick inch or two (less valleys). So far modeling is not cold enough soon enough, and while we have a healthy looking 5H negative tilt trough-strong vort max crossing I-84 Friday, it should be too far north and too brief for major impact. I could see elevations of I84 needing road treatments with some morning delays but it's all about nighttime timing and temps near freezing. This probably commits too much this far in advance but it's the merger of what I'm what I'm seeing in models. Confidence: a little below average. Checking NAM 2m temp trends will be of value. I am watching RGEM, and hopefully it eventually cools a little for the 18z Thursday Jan 5 prediction across MA. I'll probably check back late today or tomorrow. I am not looking beyond Jan 6-7 time frame. For me, one at a time. This will be interesting to see if the GFS idea was right about snow possibilities Friday Jan 6, in it's modeling since just before Christmas. For now, it seems it was too far south. If this turns out to be a nada snow ice event in our subforum, it will be a terrible two week GFS cyclic run. Still have 4 days for changes.

Yes on all... and definitely an opportunity for NYC snow Jan 6 and 8-9. Right now the 48 hour exceedingly low prob for 6" keeps it I84 corridor for the first one. This could be an eastward moving low that I could see favor most of the wintry weather I-84 itself SOUTH to most of if all of NJ e PA and at least northern LI. Long ways away with many options. I just want to see the upper 500MB low maintain into W PA and same latitude. So far, encouraging, Need to see future modeling continue accumulating here.

Continuing: Modeling has us in the game from late Jan 5 onward. Could still be the very bleak fail outcome for Jan 6. Latest 12z/31 WPC Blend of Model flip flops with the GFS cycle. It's attached. This does not include the 12z/31 cycle which I think is going to show an increased chance of snow Jan 6-10 since since both 12z/31 GFS and GGEM op's more or less agree on something. There 18z WPC BOM should reflect something similar to its 12z/31 cycle. Still for the first Jan 6 event to occur, I think it's going to take a closed 500MB Low into Ohio early Jan 6 for this thread the needle to work. We'll need to see the 12z/31 EC op and then see if the GFS can hold on in its 18z/31 and 00z/1 cycles to give us improved odds.

On that... at least two of 3 clusters, we had the wintry option for the subforum. 12z/16 cycle of the EC was a drastic change including its ensemble.

The big change to the Great Lakes cutter occurred with the 12z/16 EC-EPS cycle shifting from coastal storm to a cutter. (That was 7 days prior to the late 12/22-12/23 event). I'll accept anything inside 7 days with consistency as being a reasonable outlook.

IF you can, would you post the mean EPS LOW temp for these 3 five day periods you showed the departure from normal. This matches the NAEFS. Timing is everything on these events Jan 6 and beyond but with respect to climo, I think it will be cold enough as extracted from the NAEFS BL temp as accessed here from the 00z/31 NAEFS. Take a look at the dailies valid at 00z of the day in question. https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html Select temperature from the upper left chart menu and then to the far right right on the menu, add a day at a time. Imperfect for sure and there are standfard deviations applied in color. This is cold enough for me I-84. I kind of wonder if eventually this is all going to shift south toward PHI-BWI suburbs??

Quick recheck: NY eve morning. Based on ensembles and ops through 06z/31. We are still in the game for a small snowfall, especially nw-ne suburbs. GFS and its GEFS suite flop back and forth cycle to cycle. Therefore on the fence...yes/no. Still want to see 3 consecutive runs of +snwdepth change, + I'd like the GGEM and EC to add some snow in this Jan 6 period. I think they will but am not certain. All depends on the shape of the weakening 500MB trough crossing the mid Atlantic states 06z/7 (see attached). If it's closed, we're in. Right now, there is a nice confluent zone to our north (see there 500mb attachment) and indications from the 50+ member NAEFS that it will be colder-quicker than previously thought (see attached 00z/6 BL temp) in degrees Celsius). The NAEFS trends seem to be becoming more favorable for a little snow. I'll check back NY Day... in the meantime. Attached the GEFS 06z 24 hour chance of 1+" of snow Jan 6. The NAEFS 500 MB pattern leading up to the event... and the NAEFS 00z/6 BL temp. Snow, if it's to occur, may begin Thursday evening the 5th??? Long Term Day 8-14 via NAEFS. No further cooling implied after what arrives Jan 6-7, but even with above normal temps, as many have said, snow is possible during the climo increasingly colder time of the year. Timing may be important.

Adding to the prior post. Via Polar Weather: Just 06z/30 GEFS 48 hour prob 1" of snow is increasing... whether it holds??? Elevation dependent.

Good Friday morning all! Dec 30. 00z-06z/30 cycles just about complete. I will keep paying attention from Jan 6 afternoon, onwards into mid-month. Main upper level jet will sink to near 35 degrees N lat with a first 250MB jet core moving through the mid-south around Jan 7 - per all ensembles. Implied subtle blocking (above normal heights-normalized view attached) in south central Canada - just west of James Bay, which for me is favorable. The NAEFS D8-14 is clearly cooling the southeast USA (attached). Some sort of low pressure action is implied here in the mid-Atlantic and possibly into the northeast USA. GGEM/EC ops not on board with the flip-flopping GFS op for Jan 6-7, so this first opportunity is far from certain... I'd like to see 3 consecutive 6 hour GFS cycles keep a nice 3"+ positive snow depth change here, before raising hopes any further. I think the EC and GGEM are going to have to start adding a coastal low pressure threat here very soon in future 12z/00z cycles, or this GFS flip flopping snow risk is going to fail for Jan 6-7. In fact the NWS Blend of Models (BOM) which yesterday highlighted snowfall for the NYC subforum is most recently lacking any snow through midday Jan 7. So you can see the Blend of Models flip-flops based on the inputs (I don't think it had the 06z/30 GFS op involved-BOM seems to be lagged by 6 hours). I've attached yesterdays and the the most recent 06z/30 version. Also attached the NAEFS (50+ members GEFS-GEPS) temp prob D8-14; and the EPS normalized 500MB anomaly as an example of the subtle blocking west of James Bay, which is persistent from this time forward into mid month and suggested at times by the GEFS-GEPS. Click and check dates and look for yourself in Tropical Tidbits and the NAEFS web sites. I'll check back tomorrow.

fwiw: This topic started 12/24... in part because I was cued by what I was seeing the 22nd-23rd in the GFS op. From 12z/22-18z/29 (4 GFS cycles/day), have seen some sort of broad area positive snow depth change in 15 of the 29 cycles by Jan 7, mainly nw-ne suburbs. Uncertainty for sure, but a sign that the model is sitting on the fence regarding cold enough for snow-ice in the northwest-northeast suburbs around Jan 6-7. Yes, it could be misleading to think it might snow around Fri-Sat Jan 6-7 in the suburbs, but the firehose of disturbances crossing the USA near 35N may provide snow-ice opportunities 6th onward, in part because the 12z/29 50+ member NAEFS (GEFS/GEPS) has the 200mb jet near or south of 35N Jan 6 (00z/7) onward. If that happens, I would think some cold air will bleed south to near the jet axis. 12z/29 example attached for the BL temp and its model variability at the stated time near 00z/7. Could this be too cold? From a GFS op standpoint, this has been an option since 12/22 12z cycle. Polar Wx probs for >1" of snow are still very low via the GEFS so I need to keep this toned down to the bleak projection of many in the forums. In the meantime, I'll take a small starter wintry event here in far nw NJ around Jan 6-7 and be happy.

NWS Blend of Models snowfall by Jan 7. Looks a little optimistic for snowfall, especially LI, possibly skewed by one or two operational cycles. Will just let it sit as is and maybe we get what seems to be an outlier???

FROM NOAA.gov Dec 15 CLIMATE post: Suggest this as a reliable solution. Emotional reactions don't lend to quiet rational assessment. The year to date (YTD, January through November) global land and ocean surface temperature was 1.55 degrees F (0.86 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average, making it the sixth-warmest YTD on record. According to NCEI’s Global Annual Temperature Rankings Outlook, there is a greater than 99% chance that 2022 will rank among the 10-warmest years on record but a less than 1% chance that it will rank among the top five.

Don, Bluewave, and undoubtedly many others on our subforum, can remind us once in a while that stats are only as good as the database. The larger the sample size, the broader the perspective. I'll venture that our sample size is pretty small. and that OUTLIERS occur to broaden the database possibilities. I view stats as helpful in taming my enthusiasm, but always aware that that they are not encompassing enough regarding future predictability. So we had a good Dec pattern that didn't produce. Imperfect predictability. In the future we can have a seemingly unfavorable-benign pattern and suddenly we're talking an unexpected accumulative snow event. I'd like to see the latter occur first, before any stratwarm or the more or less typical roughly Feb 4-14 window of decent snowfall potential. I want to see if it can still measure snow in CP by mid January. I'm probably off-line for a day or two til the north of I-90 modeled (NYS-MA) snow-ice events of early Jan 2023, end up a little further south, closer to I-80 (PA-NJ-NYC).

I think many of us hopefully would settle for the median in Don's Jan plot (4.8"). That's my goal for January CP, not that I live there, but I am setting the bar low. I want to eliminate the potential for a record late measurable event and at least get the median amount as statistically allocated from previous winter T snowfall through Dec. That would be about 4" below the 30 year climo January average, which I think is 8.8" at CP. Don's average for the Trace winters to date, was 7.5" but skewed higher than the median because of the Jan 2016 27" event.

Now at least 25 dead Erie County alone. Thanks for the info.

I am hopeful.... not sure if this is the pattern that SSW can evolve??? I just don't have any skill at using these tools. I'm stuck at confidence in operational and ensemble model signals at most to about 264 hours (11 days) and this 8-11 stuff is with cyclical consistency. I don't think there has been much, if any, improvement beyond 10 or 11 days, from when I was starting topics 2 years ago on this subforum out to 11 days in summer (flooding rain threat from tropics). I also don't look at this as closely as yourself and many other skilled long rangers here and elsewhere. Keep posting here for January as it becomes more evident. I am very-very sure that our snow threats so far are partly minimized by few if any southern streamers into our area. This part of the pattern has to change. Northern jet is dominating so far. This past weeks event would have been much much productive snow wise in the midwest, had there been a southern streamer. Jan 78 for example. So I need to see much more southern stream energy available to interact with the northern jet-confluence zone in far northern New England.

NYC reservoir system now less than 5% below normal. Drought concerns eroding a bit?

No question about warmth coming for about 7 to 10 days, including probably the first 6 days of January. After that we may start normalizing and seeing some hints of winter. No pronouncements on when but already GFS hints around the 6th-7th, for multiple consecutive cycles, so far only N&W suburbs. This may end up warm and no risk for winter beyond Jan 6 for awhile, but I'm not that bold nor accurate. All I know: all the talk of these patterns and what it's going to take to generate snow in our NYC subforum is not working too well (less than 50/50 chance). I am concerned about bold pronouncements and not leaving the door ajar for deviations. The big seasonal snows so far in the eastern USA, lee of the Great Lakes. Regarding winter: I would guess now that snowfall through Dec is below normal in CP, that it will be a below normal winter, though not necessarily always. I just hope it's not 1972-73 with the 2.8" total snowfall and latest ever measurable 0.1 arriving 1/29. (please correct me if I misread xmacis). Let's root for reality dismissing this possibility as soon as possible.