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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    1.2" this part of Wantage at 550PM. still small flake snow., 27/26 light northeast wind.
  2. wdrag
    Hold on... I hope you're right but when the max UVM passes by, especially after the first radar bright band, I suspect slight warming aloft will change to rain. I am rooting for snow and the EC and some other modeling has hopes for brief pockets of moderate mixed snow-rain/sleet through midnight on LI. The good news, its not an easy wet snow give in to rain.
  3. wdrag
    0.5" at this Wantage Nj location 440P. SB in earnest around 230P. still small flake. The thump coming up on radar south to s NJ- Dover DE is our evening lift. Am hoping that where sleet and freezing rain it can mix back to snow around I78 and keep us snow longer I80 north. Even though sleet is coming to ne NJ... the snow part might be done, but you might get your self a healthy sleet accum over a 3 hour period? slippery.
  4. wdrag
    Heavy snow discussion is out for NNJ. doubt 430P. Probably not east of I95.
  5. wdrag
    Booked it... thank you!
  6. wdrag
    I can't keep up with the forum..but I've checked MT Holly reports and I'm hearing slight grass cover in North Brunswick and Edison in northeast Nj.
  7. wdrag
    Please keep us posted on webcam at 7PM and 9P. After that's for sure all rain til maybe 10A Sunday when its too late. Haven't see PHL and BWI reports but my guess at least 0.1" there---just via sleet.
  8. wdrag
    I always worry about sleet... HRRR is seeming to lock sleet to just up to Stanhope NJ-Scranton PA at midnight... if so, you're good for 6-9" by midnight. EC very very steady cyclically on qpf near .7 today and .1 or .2 tomorrow morning. Should be some freezing rain-sleet-freezing drizzle in SC 1A-7A Sunday then bands of mainly light snow for 6 to 10 hours and another inch or so on the snow cover but pavement probably mostly wet tomorrow. I hope you get a foot. I'd visit but already take too much time away from family with this computer stuff. You're about 20-30 min from where I live. Go to Granny's for Breakfast on SR23 in Hamburg. Very good.
  9. wdrag
    12"? I dont have a forecast that high for SC. May occur but worried about sleet freezing rain mid-7A, then back to snow. I hope we can get you 10". We'll know. by 10 or 11 tonight.
  10. wdrag
    Took care of the OBS conundrum in the edited title and added tags sleet, obs. Thanks for understanding the idea of continuity on this dual storm thread.
  11. wdrag
    Am on the road but prefer organized as one thread. Thats been the thread all along. Snowing east of PHL. Probably won’t last long
  12. wdrag
    Prefer ones here so we can keep this storm as I package
  13. wdrag
    HRRR has no acc NYC. Most models and BOM less than 1/2" if anything NYC. We'll soon know. Model warm nose is minor early and can be overcome by 1-2 hours of Strong UVV in the dendrite zone, if that thump occurs this far northeast of the low. I am sure we'll see lots of sleet/snow reports on here by 430PM.
  14. wdrag
    Yes...obs here... coming soon. already sleeting Baltimore area. I think snow issuing to break out mid morning PA.
  15. wdrag
    Regarding Tue-Wed; No changes. Right now ensemble guidance is projecting about 8 river forecast points from Philly to ne NJ moderate flood, and 3 potentially major. Additionally if 3.5" qpf occurs by 00z/11, and we add another inch around the 13th (ensemble total 4.5)... The Passaic at Pine Brook would probably be at a minimum in moderate flood 10th-15th. All this predicted on how much rain. Ensembles predictions of river response for NJ is pretty good. That same guidance is giving a bunch of streams in CT minor flood.
  16. wdrag
    No plans for a 13th snow event post, though it looks like I84 corridor can do decent, but not the city. 715A/6
  17. wdrag
    Too close to sure for me.
  18. wdrag
    NYC will probably preserve the record... 1/4-2" doesn't mean NYC will get 2". I definitely think some sort of measurable slop has to occur there but whether the observers catch it as intended in the snow measuring guidance... within their primary shift duties? Have no clue.
  19. wdrag
    An announcement for those who use banding pages provided by the grace of FSU-Bob Hart. Now fixed. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/
  20. wdrag
    I myself will continue commenting on this event in this original NY eve, two storm thread for consistency as the two storms = feed each other the results by Jan 10. It will also demonstrate how effective (or not) use of consensus modeling (ensemble blends) can be for preparation purposes out to 10-days in advance and how CPC hazard tools are probably underutilized.
  21. wdrag
    Just a note: This thread will serve as the obs thread for this afternoon-Sunday obs and also continue comments on the Tuesday-Wednesday event. A new OBS thread for Tuesday-Wednesday will issue 7A Tuesday. fwiw--- I think NYC-LI is going to see some wet sloppy slushy snow acc on cars/grass 4P-10P and whether it is observed at CP I'm not sure but I expect 1/4-2" because of bursts of moderate snowfall 1/2MI vsby. That despite temps above freezing, which I think will have to cool to 33 in snow after sunset. Too much modeling is showing snow NYC...but temps will determine whether we can measure there. Am noting dewpoints not very far from freezing through this entire event for NYC north. So--I may be very wrong but it's not worth the risk of a nil call being wrong for travelers.
  22. wdrag
    I myself will continue commenting on this event in the original NY eve, two storm thread for consistency as the two storms = feed each other the results by Jan 10. It will also demonstrate how effective (or not) use of consensus modeling (ensemble blends) can be for preparation purposes out to 10-days in advance and how CPC hazard tools are probably underutilized. Others may post here but I will post in the original thread with only a new obs thread for that storm issued at 7AM this coming Tuesday when we've exhausted model discussion.
  23. wdrag
    fwiw... 4PM NWS collaborated snow forecasting experimental impact. For me, looks half an inch or so conservative I95 where I think an inch will fall but melt quite bit on initial contact 2-4PM. AFTER the initial thump goes by around 9P, it warms aloft for a few hours. Matter of temp during snow. If 33 CP Will get some whitening on the snow board. NBM and most models pretty conservative so that's the prevailing forecast. None of em are easy.
  24. wdrag
    fwiw.... T sections for NYC (LGA) when large dendritic growth shortly after onset arrives NYC on the GFS and 3K NAM. Temp lowest 25 MB in question and if its snowing...wont be more than 33-34 at 7PM Sat evening. 00z/7 CP ob may have some snow acc? Anyway, this is another way to look at a specific location vertical profile. On sample. Can do moisture, R#, wind profiles etc.
  25. wdrag
    agreed... RGEM NAM HRRR cyclic repeatable trends may be helpful. 06z/5 HRDPS is too heavy but its colder.
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