wdrag
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Everything posted by wdrag
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Wantage NJ 4A..snowing lightly. Trace on the ground and 30.4. Should measure out here in nw NJ.
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Possibly of little interest to the nw-ne suburbs forum due to the minuscule expectations but modeling is amping slightly for early Tuesday. It's possible there will be fairly widespread 1 tenth to 6 tenths inch snow accumulation in nw NJ - Sussex County as well as much of the I84 corridor excepting valleys. I suspect there will need to be road treatments in northern Sussex County NJ Tuesday morning as well as in CT/se NYS and of course ne PA. That could result in 1-2 hour school delays Tuesday morning. We'll have to wait and see but treated surfaces should be mostly wet. Just be alert when stepping out of doors ne PA, far nw NJ into se NYS and much of interior CT at dawn Tuesday as temps drop below freezing with either on going snow-sleet, or wintry precip having just quit but icing up in the hour around sunrise.
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Might want to monitor what falls tomorrow (Tuesday) morning in NYC 6A-8A... slight chc it could be interesting and measurable??? Modeling amping up a bit on this cold frontal passage and fairly sharply falling temps with on-going qpf.
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IF zero occurs in CP... I think that would be amazing WITHOUT snow cover, despite whatever CP can measure Tuesday and Wednesday morning at 12z (presuming there is a short period of snow each morning)
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06Z/30 GFS for the first time offer exceedingly minor measurable snowfall for NYC/PHL areas early Wed. EC shutout all this week. UK/Canadian, especially RGEM-RDPS while sagging a little south from previous days (I84) have been constantly advertising a period of snow for PA/NJ/LI Tue night, as has the ICON(not my favorite model). Don't know what to say except for my friends, I'm continuing the 'possibility' of a dusting. Also of note and probably already discussed: I want to think the EC has gone off the deep end at 132 hours or thereabouts, but offers all of our area the coldest temps of the winter, including brutally cold wind chills that if verified would be near WARNING for most of our subforum. Even without snow cover, the low temp in NYC could be the coldest since Jan 2019? I don't want to believe the subzero on the EC and will accept that it's too extreme which makes the wind chill too extreme. Does look like a serious 1-2 day cold shot.
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For the ensemble checkers within our membership: The Canadian and United States ensembles are similar through 10 days-nothing major but offering a mean of 1-4" VA to New England whilst the European has been suppressing chances and less than 1". Ensembles tend to be conservative because of the spread in their multiple solutions. It's been an unusual and overall warm winter here in the eastern USA but I think there has to be a hazardous event sometime between Tue the 31st and Tue Feb 7 from VA to New England. Whether that includes first measurable snow of the season DCA-NYC??? It's sort of between 1/31-2/7, thereafter odds for sticking seem to decrease considerably 2/8-15.
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No. Philly 0.7 that winter as I see it in xmacis
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Hi for those of us, old enough to remember back to 1973 or I seriously doubt 1914... Here are some snowless goals: (( never care about the consecutive days streak since I don't think most of us can remember this but we do tend to know what it's later than usual). Latest ever measurable snow: NYC Jan 29, 1973. POR 1869 PHL Trace the winter of 72-73! POR 1884 BWI Feb 21, 1973. POR 1892 DCA FEB 13, 1914. POR 1884 If anyone has information that this is wrong, please let me know and I'll correct. Thank you.
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Wantage NJ 4sw 0.9" at 225P. all surfaces covered. Sussex COUNTY main roads wet, rural treated roads wet or slushy in spots. 31.5F
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00z/25 3K nam temp here in Wantage at 10P looks spot on so I can live with the 00z/25 3K NAM which is a pretty close match to the 12z/24 SPC HREF snowfall... with melting on pavement in nw NJ valleys but ridges do well in the W, far N and E parts of Sussex County.
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I sure hope the SPC HREF verifies for Wednesday. Am losing confidence on NWS amounts and higher amounts I saw on NYC TV tonight for nw-ne suburbs, not verifying. My guess is shave an inch or two from those values and see some white rain (melting on contact) in nw NJ valleys. Just too warm right now... I think this is a bad sign, plus all recent models seem to be trending down. Maybe 00z-06z /25 cycles can rejuvenate my interest.
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In case this wasn't posted earlier, the NWS regional forecast that went into the 4AM forecasts. Click for clarity and legend amounts. Added the 09z/24 ensemble chance of 2+".
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Verification for yesterdays snow...NOHRSC, CoCoRaHS. Note also the poor GEFS advance forecast. That's why Polar Weather probs for 1" of snow could be misleadingly low. Click for clarity.
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Is this from Great Meadows?
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Too darn warm at elevations below 800 feet to accumulate or accumulate over 1/2". Disappointing ... I guess we have time. Best snow of the morning since 1015A... probably 1 mile. I presume at elevations above 1000 feet there will be accums but I think I interpreted too heavy. 33.4F here in Wantage at 1035A.
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I kind of agree: I know some mets in the Boston area always tend to like a snow event within a couple of days of Feb 7.
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Wantage NJ 410A. 32.4. rain-drizzle. still 0.1" leftover decks and dirt. no significant outdoor problems at this elevation-location Sussex County.
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Well, Wantage NJ (lower Wantage at 740' MSL) had 0.2" snow sleet but it's now freezing rain and no longer any sleet/snow. We might get one more burst of snow sleet prior to 10PM?? but I think it's over now til 8AM tomorrow in Wantage. This will probably be my last measurement posted til 4A Monday. It's 32.0F now and dew point 31.1. Good for icing in northern Sussex County high terrain probably through 1AM... no sfc wind here. Have a good night. 833P/22
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I think 3K NAM correct: It's a mess in SC of nw NJ because in very light precip it might DZ- or FZDZ in northern SC elevations but there almost has to be a 1-2 hour period of 3/4S- or 1/2S between roughly 8A-10A. Melting on pavement during the afternoon and possibly on all surfaces during the afternoon depending on intensity and sfc temp. Right now, I think there are going to be some folks possibly falling this evening around here (unsuspecting slippery stepping on untreated surfaces) as untreated pavement gets slick. The snow is so wet you can't really know it (small flake mix with IP-). Temp down to 32.5. I have my first tenth of sleet/snow...mostly IP-. Also noting temps down to spotty 32 down into northern Hunterdon County on NJ CLIMAT site and 31F HP at the tippy top of NJ. Also mPing has snow in northern Warren County NJ and rain mixed with sleet down to the s of ABE. Going to get a little slick up here. And the 32F air sits just north of us in the morning ready to drift south at daybreak. I like the idea of seeing some KBUF whitening of the ground here by 9AM tomorrow. Was fun to see the snow falling there (AGAIN!)
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Wantage NJ started as IPW- around 5P, then RW-/IPW- mix but now down to 33 with TD 31 and a wet snow/sleet mix. Getting slippery on many surfaces here at 640PM including pavers/ concrete/wood step, even at 33F. I'm expecting less than 1/2" snow-sleet mix here in Wantage this eve before ZR- everywhere northern 1/2 county around 9P then prob warms to 33-34F overnight before snow drops it back to 31-32F at 7-8A and accumulates widespread 1-3" in Sussex County 8A-2P with less on pavement and especially elevations BELOW 600 feet including Sussex Airport.
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I'll leave it to you to debate the merits of the modeling and the forecast. Attached is the NWS ensemble chance of roughly 3+" of snow Wednesday and also this mornings 4AM NWS forecast which seems a touch conservative on the south edge from nw NJ to w CT. Their snow forecast for next day or two had considerable ensemble support to play this late Sunday-Monday event conservative. For Wantage NJ, I'm thinking 1/2" grass-decks 5P-10P today and then 1.5-2" Monday, realizing we're fighting daylight hours snowfall at 31-33F temps. Pavement less both front and back end. I'll try to add CoCoRaHs totals at 830A tomorrow and Tuesday.
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Interesting trends with 18z/21 NAM and HRRR. See if it holds for entire I84 corridor. No pronouncement except a bit of snow coming to nw NJ. Noting NWS has posted advisories for mostly just n of I84. For those who like to verify models: here's two day CoCoRaHs Numbers. Certainly not the GFS-GEFS finest day. I'll think of this as a decent EPS/GEPS blend. Imperfect modeling in the gradient but certainly a lot more than the GFS wanted to offer.
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Quick thoughts: Looks to me like the GFS continues tooo warm and wet. It failed northern MA overnight...reattached the graphic posted Monday the 16th from Tomer's Polar Weather link on predominant precip 00z-06z/20 They've had 2-5" of snow in far northern MA as of 1A this morning. NWS comms has been problematic last night and early today but making do with other resources. My quick impressions which are in line with cooling trends to seasonable temps last few days of the month into the first 4 days of Feb: More seasonable winter weather expands across the I84 corridor into early February. The snow, whatever there is will tend to be wet and melt on roads during the daylight hours. Parts of the I84 corridor should see a total of half a foot between 7AM today and 7am next Friday the 26th-a one week period.
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mPing letting me down. Nothing icy on leading in ne PA tho text report ice pellets at 720A at Mt Cobb on exit 8 -I84 in PA... 2000' elevation. Bright banding there now so the leading edge may start showing more mixed rain/sleet by 10AM into the Catskills. Wildly differing solutions tonight in northern MA. GEFS mostly wet. other models varying amounts more ice/snow mix.
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fwiw...two day cocorahs snowfall ending 2PM yesterday... out of our area but an idea of what that near miss Ocean storm did and moral victory who were looking for this. I think Logan had 3.5" for this event. click for clarity.
