wdrag

Patience, what can go wrong and lack of southern stream and +PNA are important considerations for me to reduce the amped thoughts of our future weeks 2-4. I sure hope all the LR -NAO discussion implications pays off. Right now, I'd like to see some advisory ice/snow I84 in the transition (by the 10th). So far modeling is not doing it yet (through 06z/3). Looking well beyond even with the -NAO block, the 00z/2 GEFS through 800 hours (Jan 5) looks a little light on positive snow depth change, even given climo. Purple begins 6"... our area is basically ensembled less than 6 by Jan 5. I think, we need a southern streamer to help park the high to our north in the confluence of the Canadian depressed jet and the subtropical, and/or a big +PNA to dig the trough well south into the eastern USA. So far, not evident. I'll keep looking at the modeling but not promising big snow for anyone, at least not yet. Instead will hang my hat on little wintry events.

Thanks, Used the HRRR/GFS for guidance.

Noting 55 kt recently at KALB. Also G42 kt at LGA, 41 KT KGON validating the numerous coastal CT and LI weather flow reports of 40KT+. Only 1 LSR report out of OKX so far. Posting the NYS mesonet data so far today as of 640PM. My estimation is that these values while professionally sited, are in my mind a bit conservative and may not be representative of power outage results in NYS. These may be excellent relationship to FACE wind gusts, however gusts in tree crowns 20-60 feet above ground tend to be higher (resulting in damaged branches etc).

So for whatever it's worth... I don't think today is underperforming. Here are a few airports around here with max gusts 40KT. Also heard traffic reports about trees down se NYS. Power outages growing a bit NJ/NYS/PA. Wind advisory plays well. KDXR: Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KHPN: White Plains, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

Max wind gusts so far on meson...isolated 50's including Queens.

could be and suppress. NO guarantees but I know this is much better than a big WAR. Hope is soon going to be realized in some way...maybe mostly small?? but I'll take it and in shorter daylight.

I am starting to get interested in winter. Model evolution to the big block helps... even events beginning next week may actually provide some snow and ice. Flurries and spotty 0.1" snow showers begin Thursday morning Dec 1 along the I-84 corridor, maybe again late Saturday Dec 3...both events with wind gusts preceding the cold shots of 30-45MPH. Then next week finally trending a little colder and possibly with a winter weather advisory or two?

I took a look back and most gusts last night were under 40MPH except at a few CG locations e LI where near 45 MPH gusts were observed. No OKX LSR/PNS so no big deal.

argghhhh. I haven't looked too far in advance... I am disappointed that so far we are not showing much wintry threat between the 4th-10th. Evolution through the mid month looks favorable re: -NAO. but PNA--- I don't know. It seems like we're looking for KU situation and that might not show up til 96 hours out... instead I want to see more southern stream emphasis to the mid-Atlc coast. As for -NAO--- GEFS/GEPS look less favorable Christmas-NY. So much can change and I sure hope it does. Am getting a little snow disconsolate with constant inside runners--- but well modeled by CPC. These winters overall are just not quite as threatening early on, as I remember just 15 years ago and earlier.

So far, wintry weather ahead is not modeled before the 10th...

Anyway: Nothing new to add to the above except Low Pressure further N toward to Hud Bay and nearer 980-85MB (weaker) but time for a meso low on the CF and tighten the gradient here. Front side might be a little rough LI/NYC with a shower squall line of sorts in the 6P-mid time frame Wednesday. Ensembles 850 wind is strengthening as we draw closer to the event indicating more ensemble member agreement (55KT). OP (12z/27 NAM/RGEM and 6z/27 EC) runs have over 64 KT in the warm sector over LI. Meanwhile: HRRR offers a few G 45-50MPG e LI this eve.

Back to midweek: Nov 30-Dec 1 Multiple ensemble 850MB wind fields marginal for damaging wind middle of next week (Nov 30-Dec 1), but close enough for what appears to be a 975-980MB sfc low tracking through the St Lawrence Valley. My guess is we'll see some sort of wind damage but it is 5 days away and gradients could be a bit too strong? Strongest wind gust event possible in quite a while??? It's early but worth further future model checks before possibly discarding.

Action seems to be ahead for the I84 corridor: Uncertainty for sure, regarding damaging wind Wed afternoon into midday Thursday (mostly likely Thursday morning if occurs), then maybe???opportunities for advisory snow and ice events between Dec 4-10?? Multiple ensemble 850MB wind fields marginal for middle of next week (Nov 30-Dec 1), but close enough for what appears to be a 975-980MB sfc low tracking through the St Lawrence Valley.

Attached what I look at once/day... and so after this more seasonable or above normal stretch... NAEFS (at least 50 members GFS/CMC) cools down here toward the 5th or so of Dec as the block is evidenced over Greenland. Hope yes... but reality tbd. I looked at yesterdays 00z/22 extended GEFS through 800 hours and it appears the 500MB jet is constantly over the mid Atlantic states (more or less W-E). I see that as N-S thermal gradient in the eastern USA and fairly frequent waves of low press-cfp's here with wintry mix opportunity...but from what I can tell, snow-ice most favorable for the I84 corridor. Climo would say that as well. I just can't confidently tell about ECS in the ensembles, beyond 5 or 6 days. That's why I don't comment much in LR, unless I run with a very broad overview, allowing for the various options. So for now... I 84 corridor northward smattering of minor brief snow-ice prior to Dec 5. After that, improved chances-again that's climo. The good news... in my opinion WAR not likely after the 5th of Dec, for a week or two. At least the shopping windows will be viewed in somewhat wintry chill.

In the meantime: NWS Blend of models into Dec 2 not showing much, as per the NAO discussions above.

Quick wrap on accums last eve. CoCoRaHs reports. I know I had 0.5" in Wantage. Attached also the NAM3K 16 hours before the event(+snow depth change). Still looks basically not much to talk about through Nov, regarding any widespread hazardous winter wx.

Wantage NJ - this location in Sussex County. & elevation 740MSL. 0.4" brief moderate snow shower embedded in sw-. temp down to 30.6. Dewpoint up 10F to 28.9 so we still have a chance for one more shot of snow here in Sussex County prior to 915PM. Pavement mostly wet but slight acscums here and there. This snow will still be visible at sunrise Saturday..no rain and warming temps to wipe it out like Wednesday morning. Yea!

I definitely expect travel problems Warren/Hunterdon/Sussex County west and north into east Central-ne PA, especially higher terrain. I think someone posted some where that most travel accidents occur with less than 2" in the forecast, or was that on the roads? Here's where an early SPS highlights issues and brings more attention to what I saw on media the past two days for this coming afternoons event (presuming HRRR modeling is correct). I'm sure many travelers are going to be surprised when they run into a band of moderate snow showers and temps falling to freezing during the snow.

My full post in nw-ne suburbs... but I plan on NYC seeing flurries this evening with measurable snowfall in stripes from near Philly to north of I84...most of the impact nw NJ/e PA/ se NYS and CT---in stripes. Basically T-1" in a 1 to 2 hour period 4P-midnight. NYC melts on contact (probably), presuming am correct about the large low lvl moist unstable sounding producing flurries to NYC and measurable to the west and north. Consistently modeled since at least back to 00z/17 cycle.

Good Friday morning, Nov 18. Still no further widespread snow-ice events consistently multi modeled for our entire I84 corridor membership before December. However... PA and NJ from just north of Philly northward to the I84 corridor inclusive of Allentown-Scranton, nw NJ and maybe even to CT will see a period or two of snow showers between 4PM and midnight today. Road conditions could quickly deteriorate from wet to slightly snow covered and slippery during the evening drive time. Snowfall will be variable from a trace to around 1 inch, most of it in a one or two hour period. Be prepared for rapidly changing weather and road conditions. Added one example of modeled areal coverage late today.

Continues with the 12z/17 HRRR. There is hope for some convective snow tomorrow afternoon-evening and also noting spotty convective snow possible mid afternoon today across NNJ/NE PA.

Continues with 12z HRRR.

Note: fwiw...have tempo posted in nw suburbs... but fwiw...NYC may see a slight amount of snow (1" west of NYC?) late Friday...multiple mesoscale models with the event.

Mya see a surprise 1/2-1" of snow parts of the I84 corridor down to just north of Philly Friday afternoon-evening as a weak area of low pressure possibly scoots through NJ. also fwiw: My guess is up to around an inch of snow in parts of the Poconos this Thursday morning. Wild solutions for the day after Thanksgiving into that holiday weekend. Many pointing to a heavy precip event with quite a bit of wind along the coast. Far tooo early to know the flavor, rain, ice or snow and how far north-west.

I don't study these situations in quite the detail as I did when working NWS, but... some of the factors are probably related to less qpf up north, some valley reports?, and timing best lift just south in our I84 area...maintaining enough dendrites to make it to the ground. Less lift=less chance keeping all snow and more sleet-freezing rain in the similar thermal profile. I didn't check all the ice data but in my opinion, the GFS/NAM total positive snow depth change worked better than the EC. The EC also missed the icing down into Sussex County higher terrain and the Poconos. US models triumphed inside 84 hours. As an aside: I was driving an ambulance (volunteer WTFAS) in the heavier snow band around 7P last evening and the snow reflection off the strobe blue and red light was very very cool. Patient lived.