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Adding a little more info: EC PW generally 1.75+ here Sun-Tue. A shower tomorrow could be heavy...not necessarily LIGHT. 06Z/3 EC as has the 00Z/3 EC trended southward on axis of heavy frontal related (confluence 500MB flow) rainfall basically giving quite bit here. Other can post this if you wish. Bottom line it going to get pretty wet in part of our subforum soon. Also PW next weekend SOARS in the Ohio Valley past 2". So positioning of the upper low will be important for targeting the rain next Sunday. I think it will make some news, at least in parts of the Ohio Valley.

It's long but if you wish, some supporting information relating summer-fall precip totals to tropical cyclones as appended. Again---to me it appears to be a suppressed Atlantic Basin tropical season (not at all outlooked as it has developed through 9/3/22). We need Sun-Tue (4-6) to produce substantial rainfall here... and late next weekend (11th) as well - the latter being the lower Ohio Valley-Lower Miss Valley closed low [SHARS FF events nw of vort max in light flow and high PW airmass} hopefully opening up into the mid Atlantic States. SHARS is Subtle Heavy Rain Signatures - subtle being 'warm top convection'. Details for Sun-Tue (4-6) in my mind are still to be determined. Late next weekend not well modeled (in my opinion) yet so nothing seems obvious there and maybe that will prevail but I like the possibility of a shower producer moving into our area. Below is with a link provided by a former colleague. ---- Mechanisms of Abrupt Extreme Precipitation Change Over the Northeastern United States Huanping Huang, Jonathan M. Winter, Erich C. Osterberg First published: 26 June 2018 https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028136Citations: 26 SECTIONSPDFPDFTOOLS SHARE Abstract In 1996, the northeastern United States experienced an abrupt increase in extreme precipitation, but the causal mechanisms driving this increase remain poorly understood. We find that 89% of the 1996–2016 increase relative to 1979–1995 is explained by only 273 unique extreme events affecting >5 stations and occurring in the months of February, March, June, July, September, and October. We use daily weather maps to classify the 273 extreme precipitation events by meteorological cause (tropical cyclones, fronts, and extratropical cyclones) and use reanalysis data to determine large-scale changes in the atmosphere and ocean associated with increased extreme precipitation for each classification. Results show that tropical cyclones account for almost half (48%) of the post-1996 extreme precipitation increase, while fronts and extratropical cyclones are responsible for 25% and 15% of the increase, respectively. The remaining 11% is from extreme events in the other 6 months of the year and extreme events that affected <5 stations. The increase in extreme precipitation from tropical cyclones after 1996 is associated with a shift to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation warm phase, higher total column water vapor, and potentially weakened steering winds. September and October tropical cyclones caused significantly more extreme precipitation during the current Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation warm phase (1996–present) than during the last warm phase (1928–1962), despite the same number of northeast tropical cyclones in both periods. Increased extreme precipitation from fronts is associated with a wavier (higher amplitude) jet stream, which likely facilitates the development of more frequent fronts through the advection of cool northern air into the American Midwest. Key Points Eighty-nine percent of the abrupt 1996 extreme precipitation increase is explained by events in early fall, early summer, and late winter Tropical cyclones account for almost half of that increase (48%), followed by fronts (25%) and extratropical cyclones (15%) Increased extreme precipitation is associated with warmer Atlantic sea surface temperature, increased water vapor, and a wavier jet stream

No time for details but all 00z/2 ensembles are getting wetter for Sun-Tue. WPC early morning outlooks have responded with a D3 low potential excessive NNJ. EC is the most interesting for potentially two large events early next week and then next weekend. GEPS is now backing the 500MB flow for Monday (more west instead of nw), but still, it and the GEFS don't want to pump the ridge in the se USA, therefore minimizing potential and sliding the action southward. So uncertainty continues (including primary targets). Will check again at 330PM. My action: not overdoing the water into the pool. Could see overtopping by the end of next weekend in worst case scenario (6+"). Just cautiously optimistic that our NYC subforum will see 1.5"+rains...especially NJ/PA/se NYS later Sun-Tue. Have not checked SVR potential. In my opinion it should be noted that it's been a quiet summer here in the northeast USA... the ever expanding and intensifying drought being the story. We're kind of due for active weather.

No answer to the Monday 8/29 post. Glad to see there is interest. Sometimes the pattern changes abruptly (witness Dallas a week ago with 1 foot+ after months of nothing). I'm seeing via the 12z/1 ensembles a suggestion of a fairly large closed low developing next week either mid Atlantic or near the Ohio Valley. I am confident it will happen but unsure whether we are initially targeted widespread 3 day 2"+ Sun-Tue night, or whether need to wait til next weekend for flooding rains somewhere Ohio Valley to the mid Mid Atlantic. Worthy of monitoring trends every 24 hours. For now: I wait, fingers crossed that the ensembles will continue drifting to a big closed low and am hoping that it will be affecting our area with widespread 2+. I don't operate on hope and continue using water judiciously so the pool water keeps the skimmers going and some of the flowers blooming. Forget the lawn. Will run with 24 hour trends on this...

As noted previously: ensembles don't have it, at least not yet but the 12z/29 EC op, and particularly 18z/29 GFS op are carving out a sizable 500MB trough in the northeast USA, which could be preceded by a swath of heavy convective rainfall (exclusive to this Tues night-30th-31st). Late Sunday-4th through Tue the 6th is this primary window of opportunity. Presuming the drought continues for most of us (per ensemble miss to our east), then when might it break thereafter???? I am hoping it's been previously discussed that at least one study I vaguely recall has shown the bulk of our late summer-fall rainfall here, is tropical system related. The unusually low (delayed?) ACE in the Atlc Basin tropical season seems to be linked to the generally notably parched northeast USA (NJ-New England). Fingers crossed that todays EC/GFS op cycle outliers become primary by Labor day.

CAMS ended up too aggressive to the south edge except NSSL WRF, HRRR, SPC HREF. 0.18 in Wantage. Looks like svr occurred just along the western border of NJ.

Take a look at the various CAMS from 00z/24 available to forecasters this afternoon. My model based guess: coming across NJ and grazing NYC later this eve. Some recent GFS cycles have had this event into NNJ. 12z/24 SPC HREF seems lackluster compared to reality. https://cams.nssl.noaa.gov/?model=wrf_nssl_3km-v3&product=qpf_006h&sector=spc_ne&postage_stamp=false

Anyone tracking MOS Max T performance at EWR and CP since the 19th? Despite the rains of the 18th and 21st, my guess is MOS MAX T is running a little low at these two locations.

Hope?: Finally some decent wrinkles in the Great Lakes eastern Rockies extension of the persistent summer 2022 nw flow (trough 70W) pattern that the EC finally latches onto (GEFS/GEPS seem to have muddled their way into more qpf faster than the big surge in todays 12z/EPS). I can only hope that these wrinkles are legit, and break what seems to be our worst dry spell since 2017-18 here in Sussex County NJ (attached) since 2017 (per drought monitor stats). Drought in our Sussex County NJ, the two wrinkles per 12z EPS seen in Tropical Tidbits and the EPS QPF per Pivotal Weather through D10 that is now double the mean qpf compared to many previous cycles. I hope this is somewhat correct. Our home in Wantage NJ: less than 1/4" since 6/23. Yes, we missed the TOR/SVR storm just 10-15 miles to our south from a couple days ago.

So, what may happen soon, MOS cool bias due to drying ground. RH won't be quite as high but for us, hotter temps than guidance. Still looks overall drier than normal here through the 24th...at least the 24th. Hoping for a deluge with one of the fronts. WPC on average...less than 0.3" here next 7 days. Noting also a SVR risk on SPC D4 nw parts of our area. (Tue)

Digital had 1" near Crandon Lakes... til here in Wantage. Bummer but it is what hit is...summer convection. Pattern has to change to southwest flow aloft along east coast before we get better chances.

good post and I checked NJ

Believe it or not, showers you see that just popped ups central and southern Sussex County NJ...missed our home by 5 miles but .36" in a few minutes in Frankford NJ near the Sheriffs Department.

On Drought?: Via CoCoRaHs since 6/23: noting stripe of less than 0.30 sw Ct across NNJ. Future not looking wetter than normal through the 21st. Target watering.

fwiw and unsure whether others on here notice: D1, D2 qpf generally closely follows SPC HREF. In summer am not sure that is a good idea, thinking that there must be some stats that show other convective modeling can improve on SPC HREF; especially in normal or above normal PWAT situations. This is where I think SPC HREF has a consistent failure to recognize qpf above what it predicts in the MEAN. Additionally, I thought this image would demo at least one part of the SPC checks for SVR D2. Exampled HRRR expectations of SVR vs the SPC 2. NW flow driven convection. Am rooting for rain that has missed this part of Sussex County..about 0.2" since June 23. Checking back, noticed it's been pretty dry eastern NYS and much of NJ the past month generally 25-50% of normal. See attached for use of HRRR guidance and click for more details. On 7/6 around 10z-619AM EDT, I added the SPC sir reports for comparison.

Lots of stories NYT, NJ papers but no map that I could find in my search, including Northeast Snow Storms (KU) and Storm Data and other resources.

Probably everyone is aware of accumulations now in parts of Morris and Sussex counties in nw NJ as well ne PA high terrain. None here yet at this 740' elevation but its wet snow and down to 33.4F.

I think todays 12z/17 SPC HREF will put things in prespective. GFS very late to the game compared to EC/GGEM. all modeling with an elevation snowstorm..suspect a few wet snow power outages PA-e central NYS Mon night (including Catskills). I am counting on 1" here at the house in Wantage NJ when I wake up Tuesday morning. ONLY the amped NAM is too warm now. System I think is being played down too much. 1983 April 18-19 I think, according to Nick Stefano 10-18" northern Sussex County. If my thinking is correct I will take a picture of our ballfields in Sparta Tue 730A when I expect to see a slight covering of snow and obvious to me, unplayable due to overnight rain. If I'm wrong, no picture. Happy Easter 2022! Walt 841A/17

Good morning after the fact but revisiting a comment made I think in late March about the prolonged hard freeze killing blossoms (buds) this spring. NOT happening. Magnolia surviving and blossoming right now here at home in Wantage NJ.

So here in Sussex County, I did a ride up to High Point State Park (attached)... that 1/2" grass is just under 1500' 2 hrs after max accumulation and temp in the mid 30s. Snow accumulation began around 1250' up there (as of 1PM equated to 2 hours of melting). The HP Monument had 1.5" and many reports in the Poconos of 1-2", also generally above 1500 feet. R/S mix down to 700 feet here in Wantage but barely could see the snow except windshield splatter-most folks at 700 feet probably didn't notice.

Briefly 3/4MI in snow at at 240P. down to 34F, from a high of 40.1. Looking for measurable snow this evening there between 6-11PM as a cold front of sorts shifts southeastward through our area with large moist low lvl lapse rates stabilizing a bit as the influx of cold air overnight. FOUS has it nice with the LI stabilizing toward 06z, BL wind increasing and the large low lvl lapse rate drying out a bit toward 06z. BGM radar seems to be showing a nice band progressing southeast, passing through ITHica and Cortland NY now. wd/247P-27

Stratwarm advertised by the EC 10MB weeklies in late February? Seems like it, but counter arguments will be reviewed. Might take longer to dissipate this cooler spell than currently ensembled?

No question Joe Rao's 1990s or thereabouts research on big Dec likely means a snowier than normal winter for NYC - again seems to verify barring a miracle the next 3 weeks. Sighhh,

I Hope EPS is true -- EPS is our best chance for any late season snow in the interior. Unfortunately, 00z/20 GEFS/GEPS not as enthusiastic. They more or less agree for the 23rd-24th, but that is an inside runner, (imo); 26-27 seems like GEPS/GEFS are too little too late and not dragging south and west as per the EPS (attached for quick view). Maybe the EPS will work? I keep looking for a solid sign of late season snow here along I84 but nothing consistent and for me, I might have to live with the 26" (this part of Wantage NJ 8 s of High Point at 740'MSL) seasonal total (to date) which is at least 15" below normal.

Continue monitoring GGEM, to see if it shows wintry hazard consistency near I80 or I84. Unsure whether 00z/17 cycle is a start in the wintry direction. Little doubt in my mind 23-24 will be a sizable event in the northeast. whatever the precip.