wdrag

RJay said go ahead: More wintry threats appear for our area the first 3 weeks or so of March based on any chance of ensemble reliability. Beyond the first day of Spring = March 20, MJO/ENSO trends may be the best choice. The storm track appears to favor the Ohio Valley into the northeast with a tendency for increasing contrast in air masses between the developing colder than NORMAL southern Canada (in response to Arctic Warming aloft that has modeled for at least the past 2 weeks of weeklies by the EC 46 day EPS) and what appears to be a rather warm southeast USA (MLB-there's your cue to get things settled). The ensembles are favoring an energized storm track from about the 5th-6th of March into the middle of the month. Some of us should enjoy more IMPACT snow (or ice if you enjoy that). Increasing solar input will allow faster daytime melting. Whether we can match the recent decade of March heavier snow totals vs December snowfall in NYC? (referring to some earlier NYC subforum documentation that caught our attention earlier in February). Added the CPC updated graphics of weeks 2, 3-4 at 557P/25

KUDOS on your helpful excellent post and to the CMC for their upgrade!!. I knew I wasn't seeing things. Even when I was working prior to April 2018 retirement, CMC needed to be reckoned with in the 2000-2018 time frame for winter storms. I will write NCEP today (when time) to ask about the emergency upgrade for the GFS on positive snow depth change. I guess it won't happen til the fall but this is a terrible failing of the GFS (in my opinion). As you know, I care mostly about Hazardous winter weather IMPACT. I love snow but it's the impact that most concerns my friends. Despite the terrible explicit snow forecasts of the GFS/UKMET, when they paint big amounts which you know can be ice... then realize the cue. If you look back on this event (as far as you can) the UK/GFS were hammering to near I95 and northwestward. That's where I look for a travel problem.

Any disagreements on the following let me know. Thanks. The Canadian models (RGEM/GGEM) followed in close pursuit by the NAM outperformed all the global models and the NWS Blend of Models for our NYC forum area. Underdoing the tucked in cold 7AM Friday temps:

Since there is no March thread: I'll take the liberty and drop this in here. First: Canadian models (RGEM/GGEM) followed in close pursuit by the NAM outperformed all the global models and the NWS Blend of Models for our NYC forum area. Underdoing the tucked in cold 7AM Friday temps: Whats ahead: LOTS of wintry weather events (I think) the next 3 weeks for PA/NJ northward, especially I80-I84-Adirondacks. Sunday the 27th: I84 corridor hilly terrain could have some dustings to an inch late this Sunday-Sunday night with the strong cold frontal passage and trough passage-moist instability change. Tuesday afternoon-evening March 1 I-84 corridor-Adirondacks: Possible 1-3" Later Wednesday-Thursday morning March 2-3 PA-NJ-CT-MA: 1-4" possible from a clipper that might have a narrow stripe of heavier snowfall- yet to be determined. Next weekend March 5-6: This potential wintry event may turn out too warm for the region south of I-80 but an event of sorts is coming to the northeast USA. Yes I recognize the 5ht may be quite warm but it could b e setting things up for the 6th wave of low pressure on a previously juiced frontal boundary. Wed-Fri March 9-11: A significant event is outlooked. Thats two weeks in advance. Details regarding areal coverage for the snow or ice have many solutions so nothing is locked in. It just looks like we're in the storm track the next 2-3 weeks and a couple of these may cause similar delays-cancels that we experienced this morning. Have a good weekend.

Wantage NJ (this southern part). 1" solid sleet depth on top of the starter glaze and now moderate mixed sleet and freezing rain and holding firm at 22.5! Recommend clearing this stuff midday-afternoon when temps make it to near freezing and solar does its thing. Have to get it cleared by 8P, otherwise plummeting temps lock up the ice.

530AM report from Wantage NJ. 0.8" ice pellets on top of the starter glaze. Temp not budging...22F here in this southern part of Wantage. Removal will be slow. Sanded roads, no plowing yet here in this residential rural location. Walt530AM report from rural location.

Wantage NJ first band 10A-1145A 0.1" new. Untreated roads wet with a slight covering during the snow on the shoulder but at 28F now the roads are wet as is driveway. Pavers and wood surfaces/grass/rooofs etc covered slightly. snow quit til the squalls arrive.

Wantage NJ finally hit 60 here at 455A, tumbling now. Max G 36.5MPH at 210A. Definitely less than expected on wind gusts by 5-9MPH across the board entire subforum. Too much isothermal, maybe not enough defined lines of convection. Models still going for a Saturday afternoon snow squall, sharply falling temps (down 10F between roughly 1P-6P) along with nw wind gusts 35-45KT Sat afternoon. Slippery stretches I84 contingent. Friday 25th still looks good for an ice-snow event, (mostly ice I80?) and maybe mostly snow I84?. Have a day!

My perception of what is coming prior to March 3. After that, a very good looking pattern to start March. Plenty to deal with til March 3. I'll be interested in the weeklies IF any stratwarm concept, that updates to us late today. 10PM tonight-7AM Friday NC to I90 in MA-NYS: Damaging wind and I think a fair amount of power outages. Some of these power outages may last a day or so. Areal coverage will vary but I think PA-MD-NJ-Long Island-RI-E MA are targeted the most extensive. Minimum gust sometime late tonight around 45 MPH with maximum gusts 60-70 MPH ridges, and parts of the I95 corridor including especially Long Island Eastern MA. Be prepared late tonight with phone cells charged, cars sheltered and how to handle if no heat tomorrow. Worst of the wind should occur between Midnight and 5AM Friday for most of our members. Much colder Friday afternoon--probably 30 degrees colder compared to the very warm readings of this afternoon into the overnight. Saturday: I84 corridor: a line of briefly heavy snow showers lasts less than hour with hilly terrain Trace to 1/2" and possibly suddenly slippery conditions. Valley roads should be mainly wet despite the brief snow shower. Friday February 25: Raleigh NC to the I84 corridor. Unknown regarding the southward extent if any ice (Raleigh-Richmond-Baltimore) so that could still be a miss, but I think PA-NJ northward through the I84 corridor to Boston will need to monitor forecasts for possible travel delays in ice-snow. For now I84 from the Poconos-easton PA through nw NJ, N CT-most of MA are favored for a winter storm with areas just south from NYC-PHL unknown if anything more than a couple hours of ice-snow? March 1-2: Another extensive wintry event possible for the I84 corridor northward. Have a day... will send my max wind gust tomorrow morning provided internet is up.

Continues to look interesting by March 1 and after per 00z/15 ensembles. GEFS is even tossing a snow event out there in the ensembles from the VA's northeastward around March 1-2. Also sensing more and more that this coming warmth is about 2 days at a time, Wed-Thu night and next Wednesday ish. Noting all ensembles are chilling 850MB to near normal by 25th-26th when the door opens for ice or snow possibilities involved with the precip events. Expecting spotty wind damage Thu night in parts of our area....mixed down with showers.

Think it's time for a March thread, whomever wants to start it. I agree with all others on here: no snow here til about March 1. EPS 14th version is trending cooler as periodic ridging embraces AK and the W coast, which means as Bluewave and one other very recently said, gradient action and I think a good chance much closer to normal than what we will experience 1/21-28 (the torch everyone was talking about 1-2 weeks ago). I'm in the camp for hope and my own expectation of one or two decent large scale northeast USA snow-ice storm events the first 2-3 weeks of March. That based on both ensembles beyond 300 hours trending a more favorable pattern for dumping high pressure and cooler air into the northern USA (ridging w coast into w Canada or AK. I do want to point out large changes in the EPS weeklies and prefer not to put much stock in them beyond 2 weeks at most. That means the low chance stratwarm in March while on the table (only for own inexperienced self) is not what I base my hopes upon. Take a look at the 850 MB 5 day average temps in the sample ending Feb 28, and March 7th. Click on the graphics for greater clarity. The first of each pair is from the 14th, the second from the 10th. Even next week, it looks like the big positive 850MB anomaly will be centered over the Virginias instead of the upper Midwest. Maybe that will trend even faster to the southeast? Just gives me pause to look much beyond 11-14 days. So I have hope that we're trending more favorably for a last gasp attempt at spreading near normal snowfall for other parts of our area. Boston and ACY well above normal, BDL and nw NJ well below, NYC keeping pace just under normal.

ditto drifting snow here in nw NJ from exposed ridges (farms).

Agreed... Our time is coming even despite my own expectations of zero new snowfall here prior to March 1. First 2-3 weeks of March look pretty good for an opportunity or two for 6+. That's hope. I'll accept that.

NYC metro seasonal and our's up here in this part of extreme nw NJ about the same. Not much room for complaint NYC metro. This part of Wantage NJ seasonal 17.5 (3.1 yesterday).

One other note: while this mornings snow was separated from the coastal low, that won't be the case later this afternoon-tonight when the precip shields join forces. Could be quite a nice event, esp e LI, e CT-e MA with an 850 mb low developing near the Ma coast. This morning in my opinion was primarily FGEN related which is why it was fluffy-better dendrite growth in colder mid levels.

A few notes: My driveway 3", except parts are melted (no treatment) 26F. As I see it: snowfall as measured officially is invaluable but dependent on temps regarding impact. I'm 27F and melting on driveway is slowly increasing and have not yet cleared. This morning prior to solar, sticks to all untreated at at or below 33F, but at varying degrees of melt dependent on ground temp and rate of fall. After 9A: going to be tough to accumulate where cleared at temps 28F or greater, except when vsby below 1Mi. Weather Advisories need impact segmented to solar insolation at temps above 27F. People need to get to work and businesses need to continue viable. So methodology can be developed to limit impacts. As it is, the NWS WSSI has it...MINIMAL impact to travel. The usual wet roads, spray and vsby limitations requiring even greater defensive driving vigilance. I did see some comments about cleaning the new snow covered cars so their technologies are not blinded by snow accretion to the sensors. That's a very very good point. Plus it's illegal in NJ to ride with snow on the car roof. Where this snow board accumulation gets tricky is trees/wires at 30-33F where if 6" can occur, braches-wires start breaking. So the Advisory is a bit of perception on impact, though board criteria are the driver. Watch what happens today, vs this eve-tonight. At sundown, could have impressive icing if snow showers occur here and there in our subforum as I expect with further 1/2" big flake deposits in 30-60 minutes. (no solar and it's chilling without solar). Can discuss more on NJWO zoom March 10 7PM at which time can demo use of tools...unsure if you can get on but that will happen. I am putting in a request. Regarding modeling yesterday: I know the NAM and HRRR had this, as the RGEM/GGEM to a lesser extent. The NAM had run to run problems and so you had to switch off to what made sense but there was little question that 700 MB FGEN and banding were a potential problem. The Global models missed the northward extent. Op GFS has a cold south bias again and again and again. EC not much better but somewhat. Attached 12z/12 .. 48 hour Kuchera snowfall guidance for a look. I think the Kuchera smoothing is limited on some of this modeling but the idea is there. Blend of Models EC GFS RGEM NAM

Many reasons to move here... Sparta NJ- Just heard from Nick Stefano. 3.8" there.

Wantage NJ (southern part): Solid 3" on the ground. Light snow in progress. nice sized flakes. clinging to all trees etc Roads are plowed. 26/25 at 638AM This matches Vernon area report as well whee they are larger amount. I think we're done accumulating here around 9 or 10A (anything but a couple more tenths), but tonight may be different as I think a band of snow showers occurs with temps dropping to 10F up here by morning.

Wantage Nj (this southern part) 2.4", with 1.5" past hr. OB 455A/13. First measurable snow since 1/28.

Wantage NJ (this southern part) about 8mi s of High Point) 355AM 0.9" and moderate snow. Snow began around 215A. 27/25 light north wind.

I'm ok on accumulations before 9A but after that, if vsby is not 1 mi or less, my experience says we melt alot of this as snow will have been cleared by then. It's the higher snowfall rates during the daylight that is the slush developer at 28F. Also, we clear our boards every 6 hrs. So I'm presuming snow begins up here around 130A in nw NJ. Board clears around 830A-9A... might be a somewhat slower melting accumulate thereafter up here, even at 25F. Saw model temps at Noon just barely 29F-31F I95. If its snowing 1/2" hr then impact. Otherwise to me impact is vsby - spray and defensive driving. To me the high percentage of low daily traffic problems on Sunday are the hills of nw NJ/se NYS into hilly CT where it will be colder (barring an unlikely but still small chance of general 5" snowfall Philly to NYC). NAM Banding favors something like ABE-IJD axis. It's only a single member model so it could slip south in reality. Blend the models. I think the first hour or two around 09z in Sussex County NJ will be 1/2-1"/hr. Also still pretty warm as this is written 40 at 757Pm here so I95 has to lose snow to melting at 5AM unless it too goes 1/2-1"hr to start at that time. Of additional interest to me is the lift in the dendritic growth zone that slips to about 5000-6000 ft at sunrise Monday. Moisture is lacking but might be interesting sizable snowflakes in scattered snow showers with the primary trough crossing the region for the Monday morning commute. The upshot: it snows, it accumulates with snowfall rates and surface temps governing accums on snow boards, pavements. Let's check pavements at air temps 29F and greater 1mi vsby after 9A for accums. We probably need to factor temps and solar insolation impact on roads at various times of daylight to assist impact products. Enjoy what does occur. 758P/12

You all have it... small chance 4" somewhere in I95 axis, BUT... snow melts on contact during periods of lighter snowfall (1 mile or more) during the daylight hours 10A-4P even if temps upper 20s. I work in it here in Sussex County NJ and watch this happen frequently. So that will impact snow totals NYC CP and of course roads generally wet so i suspect no advisory situation. More of an SPS for any bands of 1/2Mile moderate which might happen and of course untreated's snow-covered prior to 9A. You may have noticed that this may start briefly as an hour of rain I95 midnight-3A (RGEM) E LI might be interesting but temps mostly lower 30s there so I guess there will be alot of compacting-melting to minimize possible snow depth. I expect 1-3" Sussex County NJ, most of it by 9A Sunday.

Yep it does look pretty warm to end Feb/begin March. Still can get wet snow/ice surprises embedded but it won't last long. Concerned about vast snowpack degradation Tug Hill late this coming week and beyond. Presume everyone is onto the potential 50-60 MPH wind event here late Thursday or Friday the 18th.

FGEN generated... take a look at 700MB FGEN on trop tidbits. Also 18z HRRR is looking decent. Blend all the same cycle models for qpf and snowfall and cross your fingers.

What's the ramifications of this change at 10MB in the arctic over the next month. (the bottom is mid March). Seems to be a consistent EPS message. Any utility?