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GFS off and on past 2 days 23-30. Already I84 GFS consistent Ice high terrain 23-24. However, my interest is tempered to chanceym until the GGEM comes on board. Again last event, GGEM/RGEM more or less had a consistent idea of heaviest snow... certainly NOT the EC (whew). So til the GGEm gets with it, then the EC...I'll keep going with outdoor spring cleanup and enjoy the warmth of the sun. Walt

Is winter done? Don't know, but at least the qpf events will be fairly often the next 3-4 weeks. Will timing work for marginal wet snow events, preferably at night so we can be greeted at sunrise with beautiful tree covered leftover accumulations, instead of watching it melt on contact during the day? Seems sort of early to say no more snow above 1 inch/event, especially I84. See some sign of attempting to have leftover wintry cold lurking Canadian border toward April 1. For now, time for me to trim-prune-prepare the gardens.

A number of reports in Sussex County NJ are higher than my own and I could be conservative. Difficult measuring here due to blowing-drifting-compaction of small flake snow. Now down to 21F with blowing drifting snow adding slush back onto treated-plowed roads. Vsby briefly down under 1/2Mile in blowing snow when gusts exceed ~30 MPH. Peak so far here 40 MPH in Wantage (306PM) with 3.1" so far. Increasing reports of 45-50 MPH gusts NYC subforum including LI to KMPO.

Wantage NJ 3.1" snow easing. 25.5F plowed street now slushy. max gust so far 32 MPH. Mount Holly and JFK have gusted to 46 MPH recently. Power outages PA-FL...max gusts so far in the 55kt range e NC to N FL

Wantage NJ 4sw: snow increase 1.3" past hour ending 11A 2.2 on the ground. densely packed small flake snow. 26F. Accum as best i can do with multi measurements and gusty winds causing some blowing. Walt

Poser outages becoming noticeable up and down the east coast due to back side wind 40-50kt, in se PA power outages probably snow and wind related.

Wantage NJ (this part): mixed with sleet at 740A, all snow 830A. 930A 1/4" sleet snow. 9A was 3/4s- small flake but now 1/2S but small flake. Believe flake size will increase later this morning as we in Wantage head for 6-8" by the 4P finish. Another 1/2-1" tonight from snow shower bands off the lakes and beneath very cold short wave passage aloft with steep moist lapse rates early on. Dropped 1 degree past 10 minutes to 30.4F at 911A.

Hi! I toss this in here. It will soon get lost, but if anyone catches this.. you're welcome to join the North Jersey Weather Observers group in a zoom meeting that begins at 7PM. The pertinent details are in the link below. Capacity is 100 so priority goes to the NJWO, but I'm sure if you're interested in processes that I use to make a forecast from trends In Tropical Tidbits, Pivotal Weather and use of Robert Harts FSU page, plus use of NWS graphics, this would be a good time to sit in and monitor - ask questions. I'm sure the first 15-20 minutes of the meeting that starts at 7, will be dedicated to the NJWO minutes/business. I'll be logged on early but won't go into any Q&A, forecasting processes until after 7PM. This will be more or less the way I prepare for my winter hazardous wx 6AM FB post (BOS-AVL). Please don't try to use the members only link. Use the longer(in blue) zoom link below that. Begin logging in at 650 and if any problems, Dave Dabour will try to ease the access. Thank you. https://njwo.wordpress.com/2020/06/04/zoom-meeting-members-only-link/

Wantage NJ (southern part) 3.8". Other reports on NWS PHI FB page inclusive of several in Sussex County.

Wantage NJ 1.8" as of 1PM...wet snow. rural untreated roads variable around 1/2" slush. Nearly 6000 without power the past hour in Sussex County NJ...scattered all over. 3/4S-v1/2S in progress.

This one and i think prior storms this year and certainly SLK this morning where an advisory was issued with EC/ SPC HREF, GFS, HRRR all offering ice and a bit of snow. Not, with the exception of some IP mix. Check back for yourselves on (RGEM/GGEM) via TT or Pivotal.

My main consideration for pavement at AT 27F or higher, 1 hr after SR through 1HR before SS, is snow vsby about 1.5Mi or greater, then very little road acc, and of course none on treated. We get down to an hr of 1/2S at 33F, slush happens. It's not an easy prediction but the experienced idea is set forth, and so melting on pavement occurs. As discussed by our snow physics person a week or two ago, snow on snow is different. Then there are our snowboards, which is something in between. Will rereview this eve.

Wind advisory situation looks better New England e LI but can happen anywhere tho am not as lit up as on this coming Saturday afternoon. In the meantime NJ advisory also allows a little leeway on severe calls that are marginal. Point being that awareness is raised for wind damage well in advance. I think a smartnpreparedness move and mnot being restricted by the book rules. Both could miss by 3 MPH but still result in power out and accidents. Got to go.

Officiallyyes. Snow wise. Maybe not??

This bodes now as an advisory event of 3-6” stripe of 8 IF the NAM does not back down more than 0.2”. There will be melting and of course southern edge near NYC May be rain but right now if the 12z/7 has the thermal profile correct it snows and accumulates at 32-34F. Snow always cools air temps to 33-34F. How much NYC. My guess is a sloppy 2. Maybe more? Lots of melting during the day. FGEN drives the max stripe. I’ll check at 6P but think it good to have a thread going. Someone is going to see 4” of wet snow within48 hours of 70F Follow Canadian closely and merge with NAM and EC is my recommendation. Got to run

5 consecutive 12z/00z cycles the GGEM home alone on 1-7" wet snow in our subforum? The 18z continues... attached. NAM now showing potential... but I think largely a placement error. Think the NAM primary FGEN will end up further north near I80. That's just my guess based on recent model northward trends of EC/GFS (thru 12z/6 cycles), and consistency of the GGEM/RGEM. Potent little 12 hour event may be developing now that the 18z/6 NAM is giving credence to the GGEM/RGEM. Will be a wet snow with accums on pavement probably 1/4 of the raw 10-1. Kuchera has less than 10 to 1 ratios. 2m Temps looks a little warm for snow and suspect they will be 33F wherever the r/s line. So, accums in the hills during heavier rates. Can it hold and occur WV/nMD/PA/nw NJ/se NYS/CT... i 'think' so but jury out and my bias to the GGEM could lead us astray and biased high. SREF does not yet support, probably due to warm 2m temps. Blend of models has less than 0.2" so that probably tempers the enthusiasm. Attached in MM 25= 1" water equiv. so the 10 MM (~4" 10 to 1 ratio) is fairly widespread over the interior. I sure hope the GGEM consistency is not erroneous. Will know Wed eve.

We will know shortly. The GFS should start coming around as the 18z/5 EC shifted a bit west in the central Apps. I know the RGEM at 00z/6 is on target with a northeast moving pcpn system -which suggests to me a 6th consecutive 1-7" for the GGEM is upcoming. I just have to go with the best models and those are the EC/GGEM combo. IF GGEM dumps it, then one more 12z/6 cycle to get back on track. I am also watching Saranac Lake for little or no snow GGEM/RGEM Monday afternoon vs the EC and GFS. Always a learning experience.

4 consecutive runs of 1-7” snow accum for our sub forum. Again and again, if the GGEM doesn’t have snow, very difficult to get anything. If EC continues 00z/5 trend then I think we’re in a good place for a minor to moderate 9 to 12 hour event part of the area though lots of melting on pavement w temps 32-33F. Wetter snow. Early, but GGEM is our only real legit hope next 10 days. Disappointing outcomes this past Tue eve and Wed night. It’s late. I’d like to get past 20” for the winter in Wantage. have a day!

I agree but timing maybe crucial and the way it’s been going if the anti snow permitting forces have it their way, it won’t. But I expect two more moderate or greater snow and ice events between the 3rd and 15th. As many as yourself and Brooklyn etal note. It’s a good pattern but not necessarily going to produce what we would like. Let’s just use the models smart, realizing their deficiencies. Also since we know the GGEM is better than the UK and GFS since their Dec 1 upgrade: the GGEM GDPS RDPS REGEM whatever you want to call them, they have to be on board to be sure it can happen. No Canadian, no snow is my experience.

Good idea not to draw too much conclusion on anything yet, but I do think trends should be monitored. I am pretty sire there will be a snow accumulation that is hazardous in the higher terrain of I84 anytime from late Tue-Thursday morning. The way it's going it looks more like later Wed-Thu as a clipper tries to develop southward. A number of models favor I84 or I90 now... jury out. NYC-I80 nil or just a few showers. After that : think there is alot more coming but spacing the short waves and their proximity to passing through NJ are all in doubt but I have no doubt that there will be several events coming between 5th and 15th for starters. I favor our biggest threat in this short range as sometime between 9th-11th. Again they could all be warm wet I80-LI but there is no doubt in my mind that this could provide interest, at the least I84 corridor northward. So the over under on my evceeding 19" of snow here in Wantage, or should I raise it to 29"? Pathetic for us here in nw NJ but still a winter of interest and I do expect more accums. I like the comment of turning every moderate event to historic. Ain't happening. For now, I'd love to see a 500MB closed low develop s of Li by spring time. Those are the better longer duration storms. For now, I'll settle for events like yesterday, albeit with more snow.

Pattern as outlined by others previously- unreliable UKMET has 6" for the I84 corridor this coming week. Definitely for the I84 folks, do not want to be dismissive about this pattern. Also, am not seeing lots of warmth this week til maybe the 6th. Shortwave dropping se from Canada are the culprit.

whole bunch of 8-10"s Mass Pike Northward vicinity ORH to BOS northward with 6" south of the Mass Pike in se MA. 3-5" n CT and 4-6" souther Mass ORH-CEF-PSF. Logan Airport officially 8.5" at 719P.

Has to be ice accretion that is usually 1/4-1/3 of ZR. ASOS gives us all helpful information via the I group which many use 1/3 of that to give an idea of total accretion.

Flurries occurring now in Wantage NJ and 31.3F My snow blower needed 2-3 passes but it took the load off the rotator cuff on my 1.2" of sleet and maybe a trace of snow and glaze beneath. NWS is tending by the book on certain criteria for a watch/warning. I don't think it has anything for combined frozen qpf. Of interest this is not a 24 hour event for all of us... basically a 9 hour event. Not sure if that was taken into account. Previously noted the much better forecasts of the RGEM/NAM on ptype and resultant snowfall. Also should be noted the value of the SREF throughout. I thought it was again much better than the Globals on snowfall and freezing rain.

What do we know about this? Impact here? from Ventrice below: The Madden Julian Oscillation is the strongest we've seen since last November. But you wouldn't know this if you were looking at the ECMWF's prediction of the MJO in the real-time multivariate MJO index. This is a time where the RMM index is failing at identifying this event.