wdrag

fwiw... small flake light snow showers on going here in Wantage NJ right now as mPing picks them up. 714P/24

Here is the summary for the minor 0.2" CP snow and general amounts of t-1/2" for the subforum late yesterday-overnight. Click image for clarity of amounts. Looks like tonights measurable snow stays generally along and north of I84. E LI might luck out with mixed rain snow toward morning.

This will be the thread for tonights Part two, whatever it is... I80 northward. I do think it will happen..maybe a slippery icy mess on n LI (r/zr/s mix). Column is cold enough for snow tonight, with the surface temp & lowest 1000 feet governing results for LI.

Looks like it's coming per 00z/24 ensembles (EPS/GEFS/NAEFS) and the storm all have been looking for. Biggest is for e LI/Eastern New England but several inches possible down I95 to Raleigh with even dustings possible ATL/AVL. Depends on processes as usual. WPC overnight chances of 3"+ are still only 10%, except 30% BOS. But these probs do not reflect the 00z/24 ensembles. It's still possible ensembles will shrink seaward, but the trend is your friend with 00z/24 op EC/UK/GGEM on board. Bottom line: thread looks more like a hit than a miss.

Wantage NJ 0.4" final for this Sunday evening event.

for what it's worth, we augered 12" ice thickness on Culvers Lake in Sussex County Nj to ice fish. At least we still can do that for another week to 10 days.

My scientific expectation is that we have after the initial burst now near NYC at 715P, is that modeling may not be handling this very well. Lapse rates will steepen overnight as the short wave crosses the region around 06-09z...and the associated wind shift from sw to n (sfc convergence generating bands of snow) slips southeast across NYC to LI and may show as an inverted trough (light ne wind north of the convergence zone). I have to think at least another band of accumulative snow is in store for the I80 region (ne PA, NNJ,,se NYS,sw CT/LI). That could double the current new snow on the ground for nwNJ/ne Pa./se NYS, partly because of snow ratios. You can see the bands organizing on BGM/SCE radar. Also, what happens after 1 AM to sunrise is not my confident call but models indicate that somewhere across LI a pretty good band of snow showers should occur. I won't be staying up for all this but hope that this brings at least a little satisfaction to the NYC group of members.

Wantage NJ 0.3" snow continues lightly. 25/23

This subforum should see some light snow accumulations tonight with the 500MB cold trough passage accompanied by steepening low level moist lapse rates and the weak inverted trough back from the ocean storm that forces convergence-lift near I80-LI. Tonights snow should be a 0.1-1.5 inch affair. Frozen ground will permit untreated surfaces to become slippery in some areas tonight. Monday nights warm air advection snow (snow rain-freezing rain LI) behind the departing 500MB cold trough and well ahead of the late week 500MB trough should be of shorter duration and amounts probably less than whatever occurs tonight (less than 1" new), but still a contributor to possible slippery travel in some locations Monday night. While impacts minor-negligible, for those who want snow and receive it, this may have to suffice for a while. Timing for travel may be considerations, especially NYC-LI/CT Monday morning early commute if it's still snowing, ditto Tuesday predawn commute. Combined small event amounts via CoCoRaHs will be added here Tuesday and also as closure to the 21-24 thread.

The D7 from WPC i forgot to add 2 hours...

Am not threading 18z NAM for late 25th-26th at this time. One at time...Sun/Mon whatever it is.

17z/22 WPC D7... no 30% and the 12z ops also say, not likely right now for next weekend so not threading. Actually happy no 12z op has gone ballistic. Gives a chance of working nwwd. Have not viewed 12z/ensembles but will try and review everything tomorrow morning. I like the idea of only once/day close looks at D4+..allows the vaccinations to smooth out a bit. Hoping tomorrow mornings models hold onto a bit of snow late Sun or late Mon.

I'll take a penny right now. For us who have 3"+ on the ground, it was a beautiful crystalline subzero start to our Saturday. I too love this part of winter... my wife too. Cardinals at the feeders. Dog not wanting to go out- he knows.

I checked back--BOX had a WXA out for se MA at least back into their early Friday package. They knew...Ocean Effect. Some of the modeling had it, but imperfectly, as probably we all expect. Kudos BOX.

Of interest to me. Steepening lapse rates late Sunday with the CFP, and isobar hints of a weak inverted trough back from the Atlantic back into NJ, could bring small areas 1/2-1" snows to NJ/e PA. Also RGEM picking up on WAA small 1/4-2" snow acc down through the sub forum late on the 24th. Which is it, if either? I know we're all interested in next weekend... but the short term might provide a freshening bit of happiness to some parts of subforum landscape? It is cold and I'll take what we can get in this currently cold pattern.

So here's what has happened the past 24 hours ending around 8A snowfall wise. Three CoCoRaHs graphics. Click each for detail if interested. Massachusetts south shore (Ocean effect due to storm circulation) Wildwood area down to se DE on northern fringe of the synoptic snowfall. Jackpot for e NC snowfall.

Added RMOP: This can be helpful. Use the legend. Reds are high probability of being correct heights, blues indicate lots of uncertainty with respect to predictability. Added the 00z/22 GEFS trough for next weekend... big trough se USA but questionable ne USA heights (is it deeper, or splits east?) And the 360 hour which show confidence of the overall GEFS look at the pattern 16 day in advance. Use carefully but I don't see a big 2+ day torch yet...coming I'm sure since all of our long rangers are confident, but is it Feb week one (i dont think that is likely but may be a bad read on part--others chime the science on response to retrograde)? Week two: better chance of significant warming.

Part one of the 4 day thread: So we know it snowed 4 hours in Wildwood of extreme southern NJ overnight, and that the Boston area is picking up accumulative ocean effect snow showers, with one CoCoRaHs report of about 5" along the south shore. I'll add the CoCoRaHs mapped reports from this morning at about 10A for a summary on the part one failed for us ECWS. Part two seems to be gaining a little MINOR traction, from either scattered snow showers late Sunday (rain/wet snow LI), or a possible general light snow late Monday-Tuesday more likely for the I84 corridor, but possibly extending down to I80. Recommend following up here for this part two, if and as needed the next 2 days. Will adjust thread title slightly by 730A.

You all have it covered: Not threading yet til I see GGEM-GFS-EC give us some agreement.

I saw some complaints about delays/cancels. While cancels seem a little severe for what was indicated yesterday, I definitely think delays were warranted for any community with buses traveling steep hills (like Sussex County NJ)... I work for the county and am familiar with travel here. It's difficult in snow that is sticking. Here are the CoCoRaHs reports from yesterday...a disappointment, especially via the SPC HREF, HRRR, NAM (I saw the positive comment on the RGEM). In this situation, there was a cold model bias in the USA modeling the BL and we lost probably 2-3 hours of snow of the expected 6. That's the difference between a good model forecast and mediocre. If interested, please click the graphics for greater clarity.

So, In summary, presuming we have a grazer across outran Cape May County overnight... we will have missed a pretty good storm by around 160 miles. This is similar or slightly better than a D5 NHC forecast error. At least we knew we were in the NW fringe per the initial WPC D5-6 prediction which pretty much nailed the centroid, albeit with only 30-49% pops of 3"+ snow. See the initial thread issued 1101A/16. 23-24 probably restricted to e PA/NYS. Monitoring for spotty SW- but not looking anything decent.

If we get any more threadable events the remainder of Jan (25-26? 29-31?) it will have to have GGEM support. Tough to beat the conservative GGEM. Keeping an eye on things.

In the meantime, MEX MOS is a little weak on the intensity of the cold NYC, already at least 2F too warm NYC and may be in error by 4F by 8A today. Tonight should colder NYC. Possibly?? the coldest of the season NYC Thu the 27th? And I see the potential easing of the cold in early Feb but until the ridge disappears AK, we still have pretty sizable source of cold enough air early Feb to spread into the region I80 north, as I see it. Big se USA ridge could come earlier but for now, it's not there, at least as far as I can tell.

Will try and post 2 days snow totals (small) Friday evening. No other comments from myself on anything future or currently threaded til either 830P this eve or sometime Friday. Holding 29F here in Wantage at 1241P. I just checked HPC HREF (12z/20 version) and it still is too high for today. Don't think most modeling grabbed the essence of 33F+during the day minimizing snow accumulations further than what it was doing.

Thanks for your reply... helpful. Walt