wdrag

Looks below normal next 10 days, but not necessarily bone dry. I can see nw flow thunderstorms sinking into our area this Monday-Tuesday. In part depends if 500MB ridge is MO-TN, or over the northeast as per the GEPS. Dont know for sure, but I am not taking the models at face value next week and thereafter. Attached: CoCoRaHs past two days, and past 10 days. Also HPRCC past two weeks percent departure from normal. Click for more detail. All storms this afternoon only benefitted Catskills portion of the NYC watershed (still a little less than 10% below normal overall) eastward to northern two thirds CT

.54 in this part of nw NJ overnight (wantage NJ). .86 total two day. Added a snapshot of CoCoRaHs past 24 hours. Click for detail. My cards on the table for for end of the month. EPS seems to be trending trough in th east end of the month, GEPS slightly as well but already responding with its 7 day rainfall anomaly attached. EPS/GEFS not at this time so uncertainty but that is what I'm looking for up here. PW near 2.3 sometime last 4-5 days of the month and attempting to push BDR monthly to near 3#1. Can it... very very long shot but right now, BDR at 4.18 for the month is ranked #25 out of 72 years of data. If the toughing does not heave the WAR at the end of the month, then my expectation is wrong.

Will update either at 830A or 5P... but drought alleviating rains have further occurred excepting parts of LI... you may want to stay tuned on LI as well for this afternoon. There is more to come today after the early morning batch ends. and after another probably drier than normal spell of weather over the next 6-10 days 14th to possibly24th, I think we'll be looking at tropical moisture advancing north or northeastward (GMEX-east coast the last 5-6 days of the month). How that plays still tbd..., but drought monitor almost certainly has to show improvement when it posts Thursday. BDR monthly CLI may become interesting to review after we wrap up today. Have a day.

Quick early CoCoRaHs: probably my last on this first part of the rains. If interested, please click for detail.

.32 Wantage NJ

In my opinion you're on top of it... I use Ambient, check it with Stratus gauge (CoCoRAHs). Stratus usually a little less than Ambient and thats what I post. Radarscope App for $10/year is easily well worth the expense. Add mPing for obs, and Pivotal Weather to Trop Tidbits for model guidance and that's about as good as you can do for the dollar, not being in the NWS office.

Added Radar sensor adjusted rainfall for the entire event. That doesn't get into some of excess details both heavier and lighter but a good idea of what occurred. Also NYC reservoir system now down to less 10% below normal as of 12z/8. On drought monitor: This is for totals only through 12Z Tuesday.? We had pretty good rains Tuesday and out here in extreme nw NJ/ne PA and se NYS into Wednesday afternoon, both probably not incorporated into this weeks report. The data cutoff for Drought Monitor maps is each Tuesday at 8 a.m. EDT. The maps, which are based on analysis of the data, are released each Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Intensity and Impacts Future: Presuming that modeling is gathering consensus, two shots at decent qpf. The first late Sunday-Monday morning---widespread 1/2-1.5" with WPC having upped the ante in the 16z/8 posts and even a slight chance excessive into se PA/sw NJ in its D4 update. Second shot of significant rain, possibly lesser amounts Tuesday compared to early Monday? but both of these will be helpful, except maybe for s and e LI??? I won't confidently state where less but for now 12z/8 multi modeling has less for that area. Both 12z/8 GFS-EC for both dates above, seem to have PW approaching 2" across NJ- e tip LI. Instability looks decent (subzero Mixed layer LI) and Cape 1500J Monday and 500J + on Tuesday. In any case, I think the drought monitor could show another decrease in severity next Thursday, presuming we get that 1/2-1.5" and its incorporated into the assessment by 12z/Tuesday the 13th. LONGGGGG shot but maybe we'll see a chance of tropical moisture (PW>2.3" in my mind) coming up the coast the last 6 days of the month? No matter: Climate sites at BDR/POU in our area ?may? be of interest to monitor for monthly totals after 9/14.

Attached CoCoRaHs 4 day totals: That together with previous posts should do it. Late today, the radar sensor combo will be available to post.

It's CoCoRaHs observers... I'll update 4 day with what is available at 9A today. Also will try to find another radar-sensor resource and try to complete the loop at that time. BUT ground truth as yours helps to add perspective that substantial rain (2+) occurred on parts of LI as well. Thank you. This Sunday night-Tuesday night looking good for widespread 1/2-4" in our subforum as EC is speeding up. My own confidence on this occurrence is 75-80%. Only the GEFS is slow. Think we'll see WPC beefing up in near future D5-7. Looks like spotty excessive (5+) Appalachians to the east coast coming this weekend-early next week Am still speculating that we're way overdue for a pure tropical event here at the end of the month but can't happen with westerly flow across the country.

Not the GFS... interesting battle. Ensembles suggest to me two events... the lower Miss Valley WAA push by late Sunday or Monday morning, and then whatever happens with the newly developing Great Lakes - Ohio Valley closed low and associated confluence - strong RRQ of Quebec 200MB jet core Tuesday-Wednesday night. I think this has potential big rains here but confidence not quite as high as what just occurred. Noting EC/GGEM have the Lower Miss Valley low shooting out a pretty good 500mb vort max across NYC subforum late Sunday as seen on Trop tidbits.

fwiw...todays report increased the capacity 0.9% (significant 1 day in my opinion). Will check tomorrow afternoon as will post a 4 day CoCoRaHs total which should show some large 4-6" amounts ne PA, se NYS near the tri states corner (HPoint).

Good Wednesday morning, I read complaints about less than 1" rain fall--parts of the e 2/3rd LI and near I78 in NJ. Everyone else had 1+ with many reports 3-5" ne PA-nw NJ se NYS-CT. The region nw of NYC is the important part for NYC drinking water. Overall, I think the modeling did VERY well attempting to highlight general rainfall, including MAX 7-10" and the bands as Bluewave and others pointed out. 1970--- that wouldn't be happening. Lawns (Cone Flowers)--not critical. Droughts are natural processes and so they exert stress but if we manage... we get through it. I've attached, for what it's worth ,the NYC Reservoir system which as of 9/6 was 11% below normal. Today and tomorrow it will be less below normal as it continues to pour in parts of these reservoir areas as well as heavier rains getting ready to spread southward for a few hours from e PA and extreme northern NJ into west central NJ, before fading tonight. Have a day.

Attached are 3 day CoCoRaHs totals: we are not done yet across the interior especially tri- state corner. The dry slot previously advertised is why outlooks were for 1/2-4". Parts of e LI were under 1/2". Definitely drier near I78 than initially modeled but beneficial nonetheless. Next event instead of Sun-Mon will be Mon-Tue as cued by models and a sampler of 48 hour rainfall is attached ending 00z/Wed (Tue evening dinner). The placement will adjust in our subforum. PW will approach 2" across NJ, again. Speed of front and proximity of sfc low passage will determine max axis...

Wantage NJ (this part) at 815AM 2.61" and still raining steadily.

Wantage NJ at least 2.42 continuing light rain-drizzle at 445A/7.

Wantage NJ (this part) at least 1.89" with light-moderate rain in progress in low top weaker radar return. Hourly RATE is .19"/hr as this is written.

Think I'd believe resurgence to the west and southwest with eventual rotation tonight to turn southwest from its evening general position? 12z/6 HRRR/NAM. Looks to me like back edge PA is heading for the nw tip of NJ as of 11A/6 Here's some data from OKX. 613 NOUS41 KOKX 061442 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-070242- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1042 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2022 ...RAINFALL REPORTS OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS... LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE PROVIDER ...CONNECTICUT... ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... NEWTOWN 4.76 IN 0930 AM 09/06 CWOP DANBURY 4.22 IN 0920 AM 09/06 CWOP BETHEL 4.06 IN 0918 AM 09/06 COCORAHS RIDGEFIELD 3.77 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS DANBURY AIRPORT 3.60 IN 0800 AM 09/06 ASOS BETHEL 3.60 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS SANDY HOOK 3.55 IN 0800 AM 09/06 COCORAHS MONROE 3.51 IN 0600 AM 09/06 COCORAHS BROOKFIELD 3.49 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS REDDING 3.21 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS BETHEL 3.18 IN 0700 AM 09/06 EMERGENCY MNGR SHERMAN 2.65 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS WESTPORT 2.20 IN 0915 AM 09/06 CWOP SHELTON 2.15 IN 0740 AM 09/06 COCORAHS NORWALK 1.84 IN 0910 AM 09/06 CWOP TRUMBULL 0.9 W 1.32 IN 0720 AM 09/06 COCORAHS NEW CANAAN 1.09 IN 0800 AM 09/06 COCORAHS BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 0.20 IN 0800 AM 09/06 ASOS ...MIDDLESEX COUNTY... HIGGANUM 6.01 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS DURHAM 2.2 SSW 5.21 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS MIDDLEFIELD 4.29 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS DURHAM 4.26 IN 0700 AM 09/06 PUBLIC 3.3 N MOODUS 4.25 IN 0815 AM 09/06 HADS ESSEX 3.38 IN 0715 AM 09/06 COCORAHS KILLINGWORTH 3.20 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS KILLINGWORTH 2.93 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS SAYBROOK MANOR 2.07 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS WESTBROOK 1.6 E 1.48 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS CLINTON 1.42 IN 0916 AM 09/06 CWOP ...NEW HAVEN COUNTY... SEYMOUR 1.2 WSW 5.48 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS BETHANY 1.3 SW 4.96 IN 0615 AM 09/06 COCORAHS WALLINGFORD 4.84 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS WALLINGFORD 4.65 IN 0925 AM 09/06 CWOP YALESVILLE 4.42 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS ANSONIA 4.25 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COOP 4 NW HAMDEN 4.25 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS CHESHIRE 4.13 IN 0925 AM 09/06 CWOP HAMDEN 3.73 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS MERIDEN 3.45 IN 0630 AM 09/06 COCORAHS NAUGATUCK 3.16 IN 0541 AM 09/06 COCORAHS WATERBURY 2.93 IN 0634 AM 09/06 COCORAHS WEST HAVEN 2.90 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS SOUTHBURY 2.3 W 2.87 IN 0815 AM 09/06 COCORAHS MERIDEN AIRPORT 2.79 IN 0253 AM 09/06 ASOS BRANFORD 2.73 IN 0925 AM 09/06 CWOP WATERBURY AIRPORT 2.25 IN 0902 AM 09/06 AWOS WOLCOTT 1.93 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS WOODBRIDGE 1.91 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS STONY CREEK 1.83 IN 0927 AM 09/06 CWOP NEW HAVEN 1.41 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS MILFORD 1.21 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS ...NEW LONDON COUNTY... NORWICH 5.85 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COOP 1.9 W NORWICH 5.77 IN 0845 AM 09/06 HADS NORWICH 5.33 IN 0600 AM 09/06 COCORAHS JEWETT CITY 3.0 ESE 4.72 IN 0900 AM 09/06 COCORAHS NEW LONDON 4.49 IN 0929 AM 09/06 CWOP 3.1 NW HOPKINTON 4.44 IN 0845 AM 09/06 HADS GRISWOLD 4.28 IN 0730 AM 09/06 COCORAHS LYME 4.04 IN 0930 AM 09/06 CWOP MYSTIC 3.85 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS NEW LONDON 3.55 IN 0651 AM 09/06 COCORAHS MYSTIC 3.28 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS PRESTON 3.22 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS GROTON 3.15 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS GROTON 0.6 ENE 2.60 IN 0730 AM 09/06 COCORAHS WATERFORD 1.1 E 2.33 IN 0800 AM 09/06 COCORAHS STONINGTON 2.20 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE 2.10 IN 0600 AM 09/06 COCORAHS GROTON AIRPORT 2.02 IN 0800 AM 09/06 ASOS WATERFORD 1.94 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS EAST LYME 1.89 IN 0600 AM 09/06 COCORAHS STONINGTON 1.45 IN 0800 AM 09/06 COCORAHS PAWCATUCK 1.32 IN 0430 AM 09/06 COCORAHS PAWCATUCK 1.22 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS ...NEW JERSEY... ...BERGEN COUNTY... WALDWICK 3.49 IN 0920 AM 09/06 CWOP PARK RIDGE 1.92 IN 0925 AM 09/06 IFLOWS 0.6 SW HILLSDALE 1.59 IN 0925 AM 09/06 IFLOWS MONTVALE 1.8 ESE 1.53 IN 0800 AM 09/06 COCORAHS 1 SSE FRANKLIN LAKES 1.48 IN 0845 AM 09/06 IFLOWS RIVER VALE 1.45 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS OAKLAND 1.44 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS OAKLAND 1.33 IN 0800 AM 09/06 COCORAHS MAHWAH 1.26 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS RIDGEWOOD 1.18 IN 0929 AM 09/06 CWOP EMERSON 1.13 IN 0922 AM 09/06 CWOP ...PASSAIC COUNTY... BLOOMINGDALE 1.53 IN 0900 AM 09/06 TRAINED SPOTTER 1.5 SW RINGWOOD 1.52 IN 0845 AM 09/06 IFLOWS WEST MILFORD 1.32 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE 1.29 IN 0750 AM 09/06 COCORAHS 0.8 SE POMPTON LAKES 1.27 IN 0830 AM 09/06 HADS OAK RIDGE RESERVOIR 1.24 IN 0845 AM 09/06 COOP HAWTHORNE 1.21 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS 2.1 E RINGWOOD 1.20 IN 0845 AM 09/06 IFLOWS WAYNE 1.17 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS WEST MILFORD 1.12 IN 0845 AM 09/06 IFLOWS ...UNION COUNTY... NEWARK AIRPORT 0.15 IN 0800 AM 09/06 ASOS ...NEW YORK... ...NASSAU COUNTY... LEVITTOWN 1.58 IN 0930 AM 09/06 CWOP SYOSSET 1.38 IN 0825 AM 09/06 COOP HICKSVILLE 1.00 IN 0929 AM 09/06 CWOP EAST ROCKAWAY 0.18 IN 0930 AM 09/06 CWOP ...NEW YORK COUNTY... CENTRAL PARK 0.18 IN 0800 AM 09/06 ASOS ...ORANGE COUNTY... US MILITARY ACADEMY 2.40 IN 0855 AM 09/06 RAWS VAILS GATE 2.16 IN 0926 AM 09/06 CWOP OTISVILLE 1.94 IN 0935 AM 09/06 NYSM WEST POINT 1.93 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS MIDDLETOWN 1.90 IN 0926 AM 09/06 CWOP MONTGOMERY 1.72 IN 0925 AM 09/06 CWOP 0.8 N PORT JERVIS 1.68 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COOP PORT JERVIS 1.50 IN 0630 AM 09/06 COCORAHS GREENWOOD LAKE 1.40 IN 0835 AM 09/06 COCORAHS TUXEDO PARK 1.40 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS WALDEN 1.34 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS 2.6 NW TUXEDO PARK 1.28 IN 0845 AM 09/06 HADS WARWICK 1.22 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS NEWBURGH 1.18 IN 0926 AM 09/06 CWOP WARWICK 1.04 IN 0935 AM 09/06 NYSM ...PUTNAM COUNTY... BREWSTER 3.75 IN 0935 AM 09/06 NYSM COLD SPRING 3.18 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS BREWSTER HILL 2.41 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS CARMEL HAMLET 2.26 IN 0818 AM 09/06 COOP MAHOPAC 2.02 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS ...QUEENS COUNTY... BEECHHURST 1.34 IN 0926 AM 09/06 CWOP NYC/JFK AIRPORT 0.22 IN 0800 AM 09/06 ASOS NYC/LA GUARDIA 0.09 IN 0800 AM 09/06 ASOS ...ROCKLAND COUNTY... NANUET 2.61 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS 3 SSE FORT MONTGOMERY 2.51 IN 0545 AM 09/06 TRAINED SPOTTER STONY POINT 2.22 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS 1 NW STONY POINT 2.16 IN 0700 AM 09/06 TRAINED SPOTTER 0.9 N MONTEBELLO 2.03 IN 0830 AM 09/06 HADS MONTEBELLO 1.95 IN 0929 AM 09/06 CWOP BARDONIA 1.85 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS SUFFERN 1.68 IN 0935 AM 09/06 NYSM SPRING VALLEY 1.67 IN 0928 AM 09/06 CWOP NEW HEMPSTEAD 0.6 SE 1.64 IN 0900 AM 09/06 COCORAHS NEW CITY 1.35 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS UPPER NYACK 1.23 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS SPARKILL 1.06 IN 0930 AM 09/06 CWOP ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... GREENLAWN 1.37 IN 0911 AM 09/06 CWOP NORTHPORT 1.18 IN 0920 AM 09/06 CWOP ISLIP AIRPORT 0.04 IN 0800 AM 09/06 ASOS ...WESTCHESTER COUNTY... SOUTH SALEM 5.39 IN 0747 AM 09/06 COCORAHS SOUTH SALEM 4.63 IN 0715 AM 09/06 COCORAHS MOUNT KISCO 4.38 IN 0928 AM 09/06 CWOP 3 ESE GOLDENS BRIDGE 3.09 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS KATONAH 3.06 IN 0830 AM 09/06 COCORAHS SOMERS 2.55 IN 0935 AM 09/06 NYSM YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 2.40 IN 0930 AM 09/06 AWS MIDLAND PARK 2.24 IN 0845 AM 09/06 IFLOWS PEEKSKILL 0.4 SSW 2.21 IN 0800 AM 09/06 COCORAHS OSSINING 1.88 IN 0920 AM 09/06 CWOP THORNWOOD 1.76 IN 0716 AM 09/06 COCORAHS PLEASANTVILLE 1.67 IN 0935 AM 09/06 AWS ARMONK 1.52 IN 0830 AM 09/06 COCORAHS BRIARCLIFF MANOR 1.44 IN 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS SHRUB OAK 1.31 IN 0600 AM 09/06 COOP TARRYTOWN 1.17 IN 0917 AM 09/06 CWOP &&

Two day totals so far as of CoCoRAHs obs post this Tuesday morning. Will check again Wednesday. Already some 3-5s in the northern part of our area and near PHL. Am sure OKX will have some interesting PNS updated next 24 hours. Long ways to go on this one.... low top significant rain likely into Wednesday morning per 500MB trough axis yet to pass and wet low lvl sounding with inflow in the low lvls. Next Sunday-Monday (11-12): might be delayed one day (per SACRUS post) but am staying with 1/2-4" in our subforum as cold front eventually arrives with PW 2". Could be isolated heavier. Obviously too far away to try to pin point. 7 day ensembles are continuing to show positive anomaly as upper low lifts need out of lower Mississippi-OH Valley. Even the slow responding summer convective GEPS (00z/6) has a bullseye + qpf anomaly over us in their D4-10 (see tropical tidbits ensembles moisture) Once thiscurrentt event is all done: may be worthy while to look at "chance" for record Sept rainfall at any of our NYC subforum climate states (see Don's general stats signal for Sept). Think we are on our way. Am 60-70% confident for another sizable event (1/2-4") Sun-Mon, and thereafter---presuming (that may be a mistake) that a tropical system will finally directly affect us with moisture by the end of Sept??? 953A/6

Wantage NJ (this part), over 1/3rd inch since Noon yesterday and I like the strength of the warm front and its convergence (N wind vs S). Going to be very big north of that front. Will add two day CoCoRaHs by 10A Tuesday. By that time I anticipate, not guarantee, NWS will have a few reports of 2-4" in LSR's/PNS for ne PA, se NYS and CT. Also: Right now next Sun-Mon is best anticipated by qpf anomaly's in PA-Ohio Valley via Trop Tidbits D4-10, GEPS/EPS.

Heavy shower cells developing now e-w along I495 in LI. Take a look.

Added CoCoRaHs sample for the past day. I'll have to withdraw CT as possible miss on heavy rainfall (only 1/2"). E LI still in the low chance mix for 1/2 or less??? Usually there are bands of exceedingly heavy and surprisingly light. As discussed by others earlier, surface convergence will be a big driver on where exactly widespread 1-4" occurs. I still like our NYC subforum for this and now it looks like the rains will continue into Wednesday due to the position of the surface low and inflow. Interesting that modeling through 06z/5 is focusing heaviest R+ north of I80 while largest PW of near 2" is modeled near I78 south. I could be wrong but it may end up that ultimately biggest rains I80 south Tuesday into Wednesday where a bit greater instability and higher PW as well as potential for surface convergence via front and better e-se gradient inflow in that area. 7" max seems to me to be a confident outlook for a tiny portion of our subforum. Where? I saw some modeling expressing potential for isolated 10" in CT. The idea... someone should receive excessive near 7" rainfall. Through 12z/5 here in this part of Wantage only 0.21, but digital radar and wxunderground obs as well as CoCoRaHs support narrow bands of 1-3" already occurred through 12z/5. Sunday-Monday looks pretty big to me as well as midwest CF arrives...possibly stalling for a while with PW of 2+" nosed into the region along the east coast. That's low priority compared to what is at hand. 1004A/5

Attaching some wx underground #'s, verifying digital output since about Noon/4. All seems on target for widespread 1/2-4" rains today-Tue night (iso 7) and again next Sun-Mon (except not indicating iso max amount at this time). Am not buying any model delays for late next weekend and or shunting to our west. Front should crawl eastward through here late next weekend with high PW in excess of 2". While I've only had 0.05 in this part of Wantage, you can see the variability up to 2+" in the available data at this resolution for PA/NJ, NYS-CT. Have also seen /decent amounts near Perth Amboy, under 3/4". Credit to Weather Underground. I'll add some CoCoRAHS 24 hour totals around 10-11A/Monday.

For starters: ne PA rolling into Sussex County of nw NJ. Digital max hourly rainfall of 3/4-1.25" already in several spots. Rolling thunder here in Wantage of nw NJ since 1234P. Looks like a nice start... I checked the 12z SPC HREF: looks like minimum 1" through virtually all of our subforum by 12z Tue with more coming thereafter. Additionally HREF is flagging potential 48 hr max max 7" ne PA... less to the east but I do believe this correct and will be within 1" correct, just don't know where. PW of 1.75" and slow movers... big yield as already ne PA into extreme nw NJ. Walt 131P/4

Our first 1/2-4" three day event in the NYC subforum with off and on showers (1/2" for the small part of the area that may miss out on general heavy rains ({CT miss?, e LI miss?)}. This is not in my mind a drought buster as Bluewave previously noted, but it seems to me to be leading up to more heavy rains by the end of next weekend. If those heavy rains occur as I anticipate (using multiple ensemble 500MB confluence with a closed low over the lower Ohio Valley and east coast ridge); then another 1/2-4" would occur here late next weekend into Monday the 12th. That second event would in my mind pretty much break the drought. This presumes the read of ensemble guidance is correct and the first event materializes as WPC forecast in their D1-3 from 08z/4. I don't plan on watering this evening through Wednesday nor have not added any water to the pool since this psst Friday. PW suggests heaviest rain I80 southward. Sooner or later the Atlantic Basin should bust loose and contribute more direct tropical moisture to our area in late Sept-Oct. So, I think things are looking up and we are all benefitting from improved modeling that can recognize this potential. . It allows for general planning, out to 9 days. I'll look at guidance late today and possibly post some graphics for two event totals. It should also be noted that already guidance is not so clean on no rain this Wed-Thu.