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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
    Already many reports of 0.1-0.5" today just w of I95 and over parts of LI. Lightning today through about 6P, attached. I feel like forecasters are quitting the rain too soon. Front slowing with still TD 50 MSV/NJ at 630P... with cooling 500MB. Am expecting another decent batch of most (isolated TRW+) rainfall to develop as a wave along the front across NJ crossing LI CT 10P-4A. Yankee game may have some rain problems from the initial dying batch of showers crossing I95. I just see too much rushing the drying in here. Too much sw flow at high levels. Wantage 0.14" at 650P and continuing to rain. Had thunder here this afternoon. Also have seen mPING small hail reports from se NYS to ePA. Will try to send a wrap up CoCoRAHs rainfall report at 9A Tue. Have a good night.
  2. wdrag
    Back to weather: TT tomorrow up to 51 (EC) in the first bunch of convection. Could be interesting near NYC with a small hailer? and or/thunder? WPC qpf issued the past couple of cycles looks too conservative and I saw SPC shifted the thunder risk eastward of NYC. Not sure why...but they probably have more and better guidance than I. I can see running less less than 0.1 near TTN-ABE otherwise I can see two bands of showers, one in the morning 4A-11A and one late day or night with occurrence sometime between 4P Mon-4A Tue. The yield I think may be more similar to the 12z/15 EC/RGEM/HRDPS. That said: I think the12z/15 GFS & SPC HREF are too conservative. To me this is an interesting event, despite the overall boring summer-early fall. By the way NYC reservoir now within 7% of capacity...still low but ok and slightly closer to norm. Will post Tue around 9A the combined two event totals (late last week and tomorrow's).
  3. wdrag
    I agree: Mesonet is sparsely populated compared to CoCoRaHs... try that. This event had tow or three big bands. Largest nest the De River, a secondary NJ Coast one into w CT, then something I think e LI.
  4. wdrag
    CoCoRaHs two day totals. Click for more detail. May see iso 4" two event total by 12z Tue the 18th but unlikely. Most ensembles are 1/4-1/2" for next Monday.
  5. wdrag
    algorithms. Someone from NWS should reply if they have an answer. I've been gone 4 years so am out of touch on details. Thanks. Walt
  6. wdrag
    JFK 1.22. CP 0.99. Others will contribute more and please click the CoCoRaHs map for more detail. Will post the two day in 5 min. Thanks, Walt
  7. wdrag
    Sometimes, but often I think they are much closer to reality than this past event. My guess NWS does too, since they use this info to initiate FFW/FLW's for basins and sub basins.
  8. wdrag
    Correct: Digital radar totals were less than reality all day.
  9. wdrag
    Drought diminishing - we'll see it in next Thursdays 10/20 post. Here are prelim 1 day CoCoRaHs maps, and a 2 day total from the NYS mesonet. Some spots only 0.4" but many 1-3". Wantage NJ my Ambient 2.52 but two stratus official CocoRaHs stations 2.39" which I think is more accurate (I am not a CoCoRaHs observer). I'll get two day totals up around 9A via CoCoRahs. More coming this coming Monday the 17th. Whether we will see iso 4" two event totals, probably not but still tbd. Later, Walt
  10. wdrag
    Pretty good event. Digital storm totals from multiple radars looks too low. My ambient has 1.8 probably closer to 1.6 here in Wantage but attached are some climate site data... More to come overnight as this does not end til near dawn Friday.
  11. wdrag
    Overnight rain ending early this Thursday morning 10/13/22. Click for greater details. I see .44 se LI coast.
  12. wdrag
    Good Thursday morning everyone, Think it may be an interesting next 5 days around here with isolated 4" amounts somewhere in the NYC subform. My best guess is w CT. In sum: Modeling is poor along the east coast for qpf ending the 6 hrs at 8AM this morning. As you saw Tatamy with 0.23. Here in Wantage 0.03 and still raining. ATL area wasn't handled very well by the models this morning either (all considerably bereft of qpf). For qpf between now and 12z Friday I will follow HRRR, HRDPS, RGEM. Just not sure why GFS has been stuck so far west... and so it's part of the options, but not one that I favor. Sunday-Monday: looks interesting to me as modeling is trying to take some short waves (or a single short wave?) and carve out quite a cold closed low aloft in NYS/e Great Lakes somewhere. Ahead of that has be a pretty good pulse of WAA. That should yield widespread rain here, some of it heavy for a few hours...maybe more so NJ/LI/southernNew England?
  13. wdrag
    For what its worth: Some 2022 NWS evaluation of tracking for IAN, and note the overall 2021 season stats. So this one was not so good for the GFS (2022). Please see attached..2021 first. Ian second. I did not attach intensity stats so as to keep this a little simpler. This presentation may have already appeared on the American Weather Mid Atlantic forum.
  14. wdrag
    I just haven't had the time to review, but if someone looks at colder than normal Octobers and associated CP snow above or below, can you add NOV. I do remember local research in BOS (Pannuto etal) that both colder than normal Oct-Nov, favored above normal snowfall up there for the winter. As you're probably aware, the GFS had outlooked a couple of operational cycles of accumulating snow in the northwest part of our subform (~18th) a few days ago. Then much more recently the EC OP. I prefer no significant snow (1"+) prior to mid November in nw NJ--- early big snows don't seem to favor a big winter. So, am hoping the combined events of this Thu-early Fri and next Tue-Wed (I know the GFS and GGEM ops have dropped the second one), do not result in any snow around here. The EC continues steadfast on early next week 1"+ rain. Interesting. Overall, the EPS continues showing a pretty large positive departure on the weekly qpf here, ending the 19th. RGEM is also impressive. You saw this mornings SPC D3 marginal risk for Thu near the Delaware River and have attached the WPC excessive rain outlook. I suspect the WPC qpf outlook for at least NJ/se NYS/ne PA is a little conservative based on RGEM and trends of the EC. Noting also that a stripe potential of 3+ may be starting to show up by 12z Friday in our subform.
  15. wdrag
    Worthy of monitoring 10/13-19 for one or two large qpf events (1+). All ensemble systems above normal that time frame. GFS op may be leading the pack on potential for a narrow stripe of excessive (5+) in the northeast USA. I see this as some (minor) GMEX-Trop contribution for the first event this Thu-Fri. WPC experimental excessive as posted overnight has the excessive north of our area. I could see this down here in somewhere in our subforum. Frosty this morning in Wantage. low 31.5 on the 10' mast. (colder near grass level for sure). Colors out here beautiful reds on the maples...much brighter than recent years.
  16. wdrag
    Not much to add to previous CoCoRahs event post from Thursday. I will say the ensembles had this right for our area...Ian moisture -sfc isobaric pattern impact was big. Just delayed 36 hours from my own prior Sept post anticipation and there wasn't any rain in the METS-Braves series. The drought monitor posted yesterday was incomplete with event rain, but may not show much change next Thursday since it's essentially pretty dry the Tuesday 12z 10/11 weekly time cutoff. Added a couple of graphics from OKX proposed changed to frost-freeze. The climo portion should be of value, though this may have posted here in earlier days. Finally, I am interested in eventual moisture curling northward into the northeast USA from TD13... unsure if it will be 13-14 or possibly a 18-19. EPS is neutral on above-below normal rainfall 10/12-19, certainly wetter than the GEFS-GEPS. May be worthy of monitoring for later next week or the following week. Maybe we can enjoy an overall cooler than normal pattern Oct-Nov??? Wouldn't that a good signal for a snowy winter. Just haven't had that two month combo for years, as I can recall.
  17. wdrag
    Ian and monthly: Ian substantial rains unlikely (my wrong prior expectation) to arrive prior to Oct 1 so LGA and BDR top 20 month of Sept rainfall will remain as is (even with a small shower or two the next couple of days), within the shorter period of record dating back to the 1940s. 00z/26 GEPS is the only ensemble (recent cycles coming on board) that has decent qpf up here late Friday Sept 30. CoCoRaHs rainfall for yesterday is attached (please click for clarity). Noting the south shore of LI pretty much missed again. Also, very little rain extreme nw NJ (0.01 this part of Wantage at our home) and POU area. Ian: highest PW-moisture still destined up here but possibly delayed til Sunday Oct2? Ensembles peel the heavier rains eastward just south of our NYC subforum. Presuming it comes up here as a nor'easter, then squally ne winds. All this paragraph still TBD. Finally for all the Mets fans: Ian "may" force one of the Fri or Sat night games to be placed into a day-night double header Sunday Oct 2? Long ways off and timing is everything so maybe these play with normal 720PM starting times, though I foresee delays. 26/1314z
  18. wdrag
    Of interest: no admission in mPing this morning of rain on LI. I checked JFK,LGA, CP--all had traces. DIX-OKX STP has bands of trace-0.01 across parts of our area (OKX more conservative may be more reliable). submitted 1231z/25
  19. wdrag
    TT54 in the sounding you posted... 50kt down to 600MB= all excellent indicators. may see some spot 1" rains by tomorrow morning.
  20. wdrag
    Long ways to go and still some modeling OTS south of us with only a glancing blow. I am not giving up on substantial rainfall beginning here late Friday but modeling across the board favors a 10/1 or 2 event here. Until we get to 96 hours out, I'll hold with that Friday afternoon start but I do understand that the last 24 hours has slowed and may be telling me flat out: WRONG. I just wait out the model solutions. In the meantime... "overall" ensembles have the moisture path favoring passage overhead next weekend. I am not saying anything more than squally winds at this point. Here's one example from the 00z/25 cycle.
  21. wdrag
    Suggest: merging your data with surrounding... and best--get yourself an Ambient weather sensor, or even better, Stratus gage to measure. Stratus is conservative (CoCoRaHs approved) and probably more accurate than the automated gages (especially intense rainfall rates). I know I was embedded low (0.21) but also there was data that suggested that my data FIT. Let's try again tomorrow to compare (new 24 hour map will post late the 26th)since am working part time). Again check gages to ensure your accuracy and reduce any speculation. Note: our area in SVR outlook today so it should be interesting with 1-2 bands of heavy convection.
  22. wdrag
    Monthly summary of rainfall through yesterday 9/23: Central NJ (not shown) has seen expanding drought. NYC reservoir system departure from normal is decreasing from earlier in Sept, now within 8% at about 70.7%.
  23. wdrag
    Rainfall for Sep 22 is attached: My review of XMACIS climate data indicates Poughkeepsie top 30 for the month in the period of record (POR) dating back to 1931 and Bridgeport top 20 since 1948. More expected this Sunday-Sunday night...maybe 0.1-0.8? (HRRR has sprinkles here already Sunday morning) Then Ian uncertainty Sept 30-Oct 2 (my mistake 2 days ago thinking Hermine, but Ian took 12-15 hours longer to be named than I expected). In any case it's debatable how much rain will fall here for the event and of course the beginning of it on Friday the 30th. There is still an option for an east out to sea (OTS) south of us, but the GEPS is the only remaining global ensemble that misses to the south, as of 00z/24. To me that means tropical moisture is coming. How it all plays out in the eastern USA has many solutions. I only present a super ensemble outlook, (attached) for the end of the month as constructed by Tomer Burg. I continue to think we have a chance of 1"+ rain for at least a portion of the NYC forum here on the 30th, but it has to be rated chance as timing and splitting of rain drivers can diminish or delay my own envisioned outcome.
  24. wdrag
    I may start commenting more frequently on upcoming tropical moisture by the end of the month. I'm thinking a little faster than most on this... partly per previous expectations and partly per the EPS continuing to considerably alter it's 500MB features to a favorable track for overrunning rainfall here. If you use the EPS... an east coast heavy rain maker is coming. My confidence for this reality here is slowly increasing per EPS trends. 00z/22 has a shot at (probable next named storm by this time Friday Hermine) a large rain maker making it up here whereas GEFS-GEPS are out to sea south. This includes RRQ upper level jet enhancement with an inverted trough along the coast. I'll add a few graphics in the future if this continues favorable for a 9/30 arrival. Uncertainties: Lat-Lon eastward OTS turn and timing, whether its up here in 8 days or first few days Oct. Meanwhile, I may be posting info on BDR monthly rainfall ranking this evening. For now at 4.46 with more to come.
  25. wdrag
    Haven't had much to say the past week or so, just riding out all the model fluctuations. I don't think the SPC HREF did very well yesterday...attached CoCoRaHs amounts. You're seeing all the models. I am hopeful this long anticipated potential transition for NYC PWat 2.3" by the end of the month (sometime the last the 5 days) works out and that we're not seeing this potential east coast impacting tropical moisture event shunted out to sea to our south, which is the more probable option as this is writing off the model trends through 06z/20. 00z-06z/20 EC GFS operational models and ensemble 7 day pcpn expectations are trending favorably to something coming up the coast before peeling seaward. Today is the 20th... so we have 3 day more days of ensemble trends to find out for sure whether there is excitement in the air for a big rain maker here the last couple days of the month, after whatever happens late this weekend (25th). So a BDR record monthly rainfall is on my mind...right now still very low probability.
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