wdrag

Anyway, for Sunday 4P-Monday 4A, most of the 1-5" acc in the nw-ne sector thread but some modeling trying to bring 1/2" to NYC including the 18z/8 EC via Pivotal.

Variability on the south edge... It seems to be coming for a significant portion of the I84 corridor, plus the Wed-Thu looks messy as well I84 itself northwestward. Now is the time to monitor NAM and RGEM trends. Most of significant snow 4P-4A Sunday into Monday.

Further followup on why the discussion should so far, center nw-ne suburbs. Ens mean snow depth as of 00z/8. CMCE seems best in my opinion but all are the same... interior event.

Followup on 2A/7 post...my interpretation of the guidance-impacts through the 06z/8 model suite. Two systems discussed below. Not sure why there is so much chatter on the main thread as I see this as I84 corridor inclusive of nw NJ and north two thirds CT to Sturbridge-east central MA. Good Thursday morning everyone, It is December 8th Two "potential" hazardous wintry weather events are worthy of monitoring for the I-84 corridor-Adirondacks between Sunday the 11th and Friday the 16th. Possible impacts will be detailed in future days just northwest of I-95 across PA-NJ-NYS-CT-MA (interior sections of these states away from the coast). Sunday (11th) into predawn Monday morning (12th): A snow event of several inches potential exists, with best chance for 3+" of accumulation in the high terrain of the Poconos-nw NJ-Catskills. It should be slippery at times on all untreated surfaces, especially from sundown Sunday through the night. The edges of this swath could shift and almost nothing could occur in Bostons and Philadelphias west-northwest suburbs. It probably starts in spurts Sunday between 7AM-Noon and manageable until sundown Sunday when a period of steady- moderate snow should occur. Modeled amounts vary so lets focus on the typical 1-4" with possible pockets of a little more. Just far too early. I've added two maps...one is the NWS ensemble chance of 3+" which is not a strong threat-please look at the color coded probabilities. The second map is a single member idea of POSSIBLE heavier accumulations--again just an idea from a US model (GFS), which also sort of mirrors the Canadian. The Euro model has been variable, our most recent version from this past evening is weaker than the other models so lets not plan on school closings etc. Instead it's your typical be careful when driving later Sunday-Sunday night. Hartford and Boston you're on the edge of possibly very little. A larger storm system is outlooked for Wednesday (14)-Thursday (15) of next week. For now it looks more like ice to rain - focused same area as this coming Sunday, ending as a period of snow or flurries. Maps are th early morning NWS ensemble prob of >3" snow, and the 06z/8 GFS snow depth change. GFS may be a bit heavy but Canadian supports, EC a bit less so.

Think we have a chance to see several inches snow accumulation for the I84 corridor, esp elevations later Sunday-early Monday (12/11-12). My read for snow opportunities 12/4-10 was bogus (posted Nov 26). 00z/7 GFS/EC and GGEM seems to want to snow 5 days from now. 5H trough currently in eastern Pacific, so it's a long ways off and not the usual path... (coming in over the the top of the ridge and digging sewd). It's a chance but has a bit of same cycle model agreement and some consecutive 12 hr cycle consistency. At least it's hope. Not posting on the main thread since for now, this accumulative snow risk seems more likely for somewhere over the interior higher terrain of PA/NJ/NYS/CT. Again D5-6, so it may fail.

Sticking my neck out: GEPS has snow accumulations (snow depth change) as seen on Pivotal. Not posting all the comparative graphics, but unless the stats have changed...CMC #2 in the world... and imo, if the CMC-GEPS doesn't have it, it won't occur (snow). I think there is a good chance the CMC will verify Fri-Sat with snow PA/nw NJ.

I think so too. Unfortunately we don't know whether they will pan out. I prefer the NAO block over Greenland so that we're more certain to have a 50/50 low and imo only, I think we could benefit from a more positive WNA ridge and associated digging short waves that close off vertically to 500MB as they turn newd through the mid Atlantic coast. There are many ways to get a big snowstorm. for the coast, but it's early in the season... and SST's are warmer than normal. Right now, I'd settle for several inches of snow in nw NJ/ne PA Saturday. For a bigger storm, I think we need a much stronger 5H trough OH-TN Valley turning enewd toward Delmarva. Hints of yes, but certainty--- ???? How often do we see big snowstorms VERIFY within a day, more than 5 days in advance... ? We see patterns for big storms 5-8 days in advance but track and ptype usually are uncertain.

Posters showing good humor. The current events modeled by the GEPS/GEFS/EPS through 12z/19 have total snow depth change over a 360 hour period of less than 1" NYC-LI and 1-3" I84 corridor. This can abruptly change with model changes in dynamics and ptype; but for now... I have to wait this out (through the 12z/4 model suite). From my vantage point: GEFS is somehow closing off a big 5H low over us to develop the big nor'easter for the 10th that the EPS/GEPS do not have. They instead like some snow for PA drying out-melting as it attempts to cross NJ this coming weekend. For now, that is what I go with... not the GFS/GEFS. Maybe something changes more favorably for all of us?

Initially when it started running, I liked it.... haven't been using this model for at least 4 years.

Patience, what can go wrong and lack of southern stream and +PNA are important considerations for me to reduce the amped thoughts of our future weeks 2-4. I sure hope all the LR -NAO discussion implications pays off. Right now, I'd like to see some advisory ice/snow I84 in the transition (by the 10th). So far modeling is not doing it yet (through 06z/3). Looking well beyond even with the -NAO block, the 00z/2 GEFS through 800 hours (Jan 5) looks a little light on positive snow depth change, even given climo. Purple begins 6"... our area is basically ensembled less than 6 by Jan 5. I think, we need a southern streamer to help park the high to our north in the confluence of the Canadian depressed jet and the subtropical, and/or a big +PNA to dig the trough well south into the eastern USA. So far, not evident. I'll keep looking at the modeling but not promising big snow for anyone, at least not yet. Instead will hang my hat on little wintry events.

Thanks, Used the HRRR/GFS for guidance.

Noting 55 kt recently at KALB. Also G42 kt at LGA, 41 KT KGON validating the numerous coastal CT and LI weather flow reports of 40KT+. Only 1 LSR report out of OKX so far. Posting the NYS mesonet data so far today as of 640PM. My estimation is that these values while professionally sited, are in my mind a bit conservative and may not be representative of power outage results in NYS. These may be excellent relationship to FACE wind gusts, however gusts in tree crowns 20-60 feet above ground tend to be higher (resulting in damaged branches etc).

So for whatever it's worth... I don't think today is underperforming. Here are a few airports around here with max gusts 40KT. Also heard traffic reports about trees down se NYS. Power outages growing a bit NJ/NYS/PA. Wind advisory plays well. KDXR: Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KHPN: White Plains, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

Max wind gusts so far on meson...isolated 50's including Queens.

could be and suppress. NO guarantees but I know this is much better than a big WAR. Hope is soon going to be realized in some way...maybe mostly small?? but I'll take it and in shorter daylight.

I am starting to get interested in winter. Model evolution to the big block helps... even events beginning next week may actually provide some snow and ice. Flurries and spotty 0.1" snow showers begin Thursday morning Dec 1 along the I-84 corridor, maybe again late Saturday Dec 3...both events with wind gusts preceding the cold shots of 30-45MPH. Then next week finally trending a little colder and possibly with a winter weather advisory or two?

I took a look back and most gusts last night were under 40MPH except at a few CG locations e LI where near 45 MPH gusts were observed. No OKX LSR/PNS so no big deal.

argghhhh. I haven't looked too far in advance... I am disappointed that so far we are not showing much wintry threat between the 4th-10th. Evolution through the mid month looks favorable re: -NAO. but PNA--- I don't know. It seems like we're looking for KU situation and that might not show up til 96 hours out... instead I want to see more southern stream emphasis to the mid-Atlc coast. As for -NAO--- GEFS/GEPS look less favorable Christmas-NY. So much can change and I sure hope it does. Am getting a little snow disconsolate with constant inside runners--- but well modeled by CPC. These winters overall are just not quite as threatening early on, as I remember just 15 years ago and earlier.

So far, wintry weather ahead is not modeled before the 10th...

Anyway: Nothing new to add to the above except Low Pressure further N toward to Hud Bay and nearer 980-85MB (weaker) but time for a meso low on the CF and tighten the gradient here. Front side might be a little rough LI/NYC with a shower squall line of sorts in the 6P-mid time frame Wednesday. Ensembles 850 wind is strengthening as we draw closer to the event indicating more ensemble member agreement (55KT). OP (12z/27 NAM/RGEM and 6z/27 EC) runs have over 64 KT in the warm sector over LI. Meanwhile: HRRR offers a few G 45-50MPG e LI this eve.

Back to midweek: Nov 30-Dec 1 Multiple ensemble 850MB wind fields marginal for damaging wind middle of next week (Nov 30-Dec 1), but close enough for what appears to be a 975-980MB sfc low tracking through the St Lawrence Valley. My guess is we'll see some sort of wind damage but it is 5 days away and gradients could be a bit too strong? Strongest wind gust event possible in quite a while??? It's early but worth further future model checks before possibly discarding.

Action seems to be ahead for the I84 corridor: Uncertainty for sure, regarding damaging wind Wed afternoon into midday Thursday (mostly likely Thursday morning if occurs), then maybe???opportunities for advisory snow and ice events between Dec 4-10?? Multiple ensemble 850MB wind fields marginal for middle of next week (Nov 30-Dec 1), but close enough for what appears to be a 975-980MB sfc low tracking through the St Lawrence Valley.

Attached what I look at once/day... and so after this more seasonable or above normal stretch... NAEFS (at least 50 members GFS/CMC) cools down here toward the 5th or so of Dec as the block is evidenced over Greenland. Hope yes... but reality tbd. I looked at yesterdays 00z/22 extended GEFS through 800 hours and it appears the 500MB jet is constantly over the mid Atlantic states (more or less W-E). I see that as N-S thermal gradient in the eastern USA and fairly frequent waves of low press-cfp's here with wintry mix opportunity...but from what I can tell, snow-ice most favorable for the I84 corridor. Climo would say that as well. I just can't confidently tell about ECS in the ensembles, beyond 5 or 6 days. That's why I don't comment much in LR, unless I run with a very broad overview, allowing for the various options. So for now... I 84 corridor northward smattering of minor brief snow-ice prior to Dec 5. After that, improved chances-again that's climo. The good news... in my opinion WAR not likely after the 5th of Dec, for a week or two. At least the shopping windows will be viewed in somewhat wintry chill.

In the meantime: NWS Blend of models into Dec 2 not showing much, as per the NAO discussions above.

Quick wrap on accums last eve. CoCoRaHs reports. I know I had 0.5" in Wantage. Attached also the NAM3K 16 hours before the event(+snow depth change). Still looks basically not much to talk about through Nov, regarding any widespread hazardous winter wx.