wdrag
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Added CoCoRaHs numbers to clarify early morning post (in the early morning post).
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Good Wednesday morning everyone. I-84) survived the first little winter weather event of the season. Generally, 0.5-2.5" of snow fell last evening with a little sleet, and freezing rain but it's winding down now. Just be a little careful stepping outside prior to 9AM as there may be some residual slipperyness underfoot. Temps rise into the 40s today so melting occurs. Old Forge NY: some snow and ice this morning. Then periods of snow or squalls late today and especially Thursday into Friday, and again Sunday into Monday. Follow local advisories and warnings up there. Old Forge itself should see over half a foot from all this. Isolated spots up there east of Lake Ontario could see 20" by next Monday night. I'll add a map of last evenings snow amounts around 930AM, otherwise, since it's only blustery and cold at times the next 10 days, I don't plan on posting again prior to Thanksgiving weekend. Widespread hazardous wintry weather is not currently expected in our area (except Old Forge) prior to November 25 and possibly til December. Yes, there will be spotty snow showers leaking out of the snow belts into the I84 corridor into this coming Monday but amounts will be small and mostly reserved for the Poconos. Added CoCoRaHs maps for I84 corridor. Let the numbers tell a good story. Click for clarity.
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Wantage NJ 4 sw or 8S of High Point: first snow and sleet of the season that we all notice in nw NJ. IP- began 5P. to snow ~530P changed to sleet and freezing rain around 730PM. 0.7" solid snow cover on most everything except slight slushy spots on pavement here and there. That might be my final for the night. 31F here at 740', originally posted 809P.
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Wantage NJ 4 sw: first snow and sleet of the season that we all notice. IP- began 5P. to snow ~530P changed to sleet and freezing rain around 730PM. 0.7" solid snow cover on most everything except slight slushy spots on pavement here and there. That might be my final for the night. 31F here at 740' and time of post to NWS 809P
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Wantage NJ 0.3" and 31 at 620P. Colder at High Point.
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Wantage NJ at 740' MSL. 0.3" since light sleet changed to snow at about 530P. Current 31F. even driveway pavement getting slushy. Looking good here.
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I84 corridor: Trace-2" snow and sleet between 6P-midnight Tuesday changing to a period of freezing rain overnight. Untreated pavements in the hills---above 700 feet should get slippery for a time Tuesday evening. Southern edge of wintry precipitation roughly Allentown PA to Morristown NJ then up to just southeast of Sturbridge MA. Entire I84 corridor involved for a few hours..again untreated surfaces slippery so plan on a little extra caution Tuesday evening. Old Forge NY: nice snowfall early Wednesday followed by lake effect snows Thursday-weekend with a pretty good chance of at least half a foot in the period Wed morning-Sunday night. 735A/14 Also: seasonal snowfall Wantage past three seasons: 19-20. 20.7 20-21 60.3 21-22. 26.0 Winter behaving this year and I like that. Hopefully we can see seasonal snowfall exceed 30" this year (normal is over 40 for this location).
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Wantage NJ in far nw NJ 1.12. Added a CoCoRaH color coded rainfall map to show the main axis of bigger rainfall was Appalachians west. Poor day 5-7 ensemble tracking that initially had the primary Nicole decay path to our southeast, then over us and then eventually shifted west of us inside of day 5. EPS/GEFS D4-D1 had best axis of heavy swath of QPF. 2022-23 winter: For me caution on ensemble best track Day 5 and beyond...merge the possibilities. No noticeable obvious improvement in tracking from around D5 and beyond.
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For the record and nothing to do with today: I expected a sizable 1+" event within a period of Oct 31-Nov 5 or 6. It did not happen. EPS was far too robust and GEFS was much better with GEPS in between. Models still have lots and lots of uncertainty regarding qpf beyond 5 days though attempting to tell us something. Attached the meager numbers for the period in question.
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Wantage NJ- this part, around 0.10 and much the same for most of Sussex and Warren Counties in nw NJ, since sprinkles began early this morning, Most of the rain 9A-11A. 65/64
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G3 postponed ~7P, one day to Tue night 803P. Significant rainfall and timing of same, makes a difference.
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Hope reigns supreme that the very warm start to Nov ends up colder than normal so we can have back-back Oct-Nov below normal T (CP). Then we need an average start to snowfall late Nov-Dec to have a chance at a normal snowy winter. Odds might be against us with the climate trends showing Dec warming the most of the winter months in recent years. We just aren't very good at long ranging yet. At least CPC has us in the storm track but not necessarily snowy. -NAO would help at the timely approach of storms.
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WS G3, and a look back at ensembles for Oct 30-Nov 5-6. Rain may play a role in tonights outcome in PHL. EPS was way too wet for this week (GEFS driest and possibly best). Tonights rain probably 0.1-0.8", topped off with possible convection early Tue afternoon which might have a small hailer. Next weekend probably 500MB ridge protective dry and warm though still a chance for a Sunday break down (6th).
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A few notes: So we had Wednesday show up with some junky weather, including bit of rain-drizzle, minor... CoCoRaHs attached. Also attached the 4 day totals. You'll note amounts on one day do not up on a subsequent day. I think that is in part due to lack of data from the CoCoRaHs observer (inconsistent daily reporting or a programming problem). So beneficial amounts were observed but no 4" in our area. The beneficial amounts translated into the drought monitor attached and you can see slow drought shrinkage between the weeks reports of the Oct 25 left and Oct 18 right. Finally NYC reservoir info started reporting again and now about 3% below normal (attached), a vast improvement from 6-8 weeks ago. The future: Rain late Sunday and Monday in bands. Then how soon does it go away. Does it linger a bit for Tue? Thereafter next weekend (11/5-6): jury out in the midst of the big ridge aloft. Still may need to contend with a frontal boundary in the area and possible RRQ of upper level jet - overrunning from the weakening midwest trough?
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Almost 1 tenth inch in ~1 hour in Wantage NJ ending around 445P. Walt
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Minor measuring out here in Sussxx County during mid afternoon.
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So the past 24 hours so the dribble but the 1+ axis occurred about 80-90 miles east of where multiple models (00z-06z/25 HRRR, EC/UK, SPC HREF) indicated. Model bust on location. I day dribble totals and 3 day totals attached from CoCoRaHs obs through 9A Wed 10/26/22. Click for clarity if you wish. These beneficial rains can only mitigate the residuals of the summer drought. Drought monitor updates Thursday morning. Next week... I think it continues on the table for above normal rainfall Monday-Saturday via one or 2 events. It's possible I may need to add a day on the back end (next Sunday Nov 6) but for now, I continue with what EPS/GEPS ensembles have been implying. I wish the GEFS was on board but so far NOT.
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Back to now: CoCoRaHs 24 hours rainfall through 9A this morning, and the last image is the two day. Please click for clarity if interested. Noting several near 1.8" in our area, with near the CT RRV 2-2.6", so far. Periods of low top dribble today, looking like a T-0.1" today (9A-9P). the PW increases above 1.5" for much of LI/CT tonight as unstable PWAT arrives from the southeast and TT grows to near 50 (EC). Thinking we will see corridors of mdt-possible heavy showers invade from the south tonight with most areas T-0.1, but LI/CT could see a narrow band of near 1" between 9P tonight and 9A Wednesday (Isolated embedded thunder?). More dribble Wed afternoon-evening DRY Thursday-most of Sunday, then we'll see how it evolves for next Mon[Halloween]-Sat Nov 5 when EPS-GEPS continue above normal qpf (not as bold as earlier days but still decidedly favoring 1 or 2 good sized wet events next week)
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Attached D1 rainfall via CoCoRaHs for your comparisons. Click for clarity. Will add D2,3,4 and total D1-4 as future days complete. Suppose there will be drying aloft that may negate much of the heavier rains tonight-Wed night but PWAT nwwd push of around 1.5" continues til the remains of Joslyn RH arrives from the southwest. Note I see no comment NWS on this dissipating Joslyn embedded moisture band ahead of the cleansing cold frontal passage Wed night, so it's probably at worst a nominal contribution. Heaviest rain in our area so far through 8AM EDT Monday Oct 24, appears to be central NJ. Wantage about 0.17 and increasing. The future: after drying out Thursday for a nice Fri-Sat-early Sunday (Oct 28-30), then I think we can look forward to what appears to be one or 2 significant 1+ rain events for the area between Halloween and Saturday night Nov 5. EPS/GEPS continue prior days suggestions. DEP NYC reservoir data has not updated since Oct 14.
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Anyway, looks to me like the EPS was well onto this and first to lead us to a potentially wet scenario, about a week ago. I know many think 10 day daily forecasts of temp and rain/no rain are helpful-reliable, but this is another case when beyond day 4 or 5, rain/no rain is not, in my opinion, wise to express in one image. We just can't reliably post a one image of weather beyond 4 or 5 days. Temp probably has a halfway decent idea within a range of 5F or so degrees... but weather = NOT. We continue to do this and when I see this, I start looking for downfall---what can wrong. That's what prompted me to look last weekend. So, I don't know how much rain in any location but by 15z Thursday, my guess is a likely 2-4" in a narrow N-S band or two. Primary suspect is somewhere LI/CT but also can't rule out something near the DE River in NJ/PA (NLCS impact this afternoon?) where the nwwd trend of PWAT sort of stalls, before,,, ???? Joslyn, yes Joslyn, it's leftover dissipating PWAT arrives sometime Wed/early Thu. Finally a period of dry weather should arrive by Fri. Otherwise, lots and lots of clouds today-Thu morning, and after the initial good pulse of rains later today-tonight, sporadic areas of a couple hours of drizzle or showers daily Mon-Thu morning. AND, unclear to me still, but several ensembles have above normal rainfall here the first few days of Nov...a persistent signal especially EPS/GEPS.
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Yes, still too much variability but 12z EC op continues narrow band 4+ by 00z/Thu. You'll probably get your wish for Sun-Wed but... eventually even NJ will get into the act as EPS/GEPS ensembles in early Nov are notably above normal qpf. Of interest is how fast the central Atlc storm (sub trop?) can push west. Seems like latest 12z/21 guidance is strengthening as it moves west. Also Roslyn in the east Pac... seems to have a moisture bead eventually spewiing into a portion of the eastern USA. How it all melds is unknown for me, but for myself, worthy of monitoring 23rd-Nov 5 around here. Too much trough to our south and southwest to ignore.
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06z/21 EC op with spotty 4+ (yellow) by Monday evening. My guess is more coming Tue-Wed... timing and details/location throughout uncertain but here's another example of steadfast EC on a substantial event for a portion of our area...still favored LI/CT where inverted trough resides. Seems like an interesting entire week upcoming (to me) for substantial rainfall. Not a lock of course, but pattern to me favors continued s-sw flow aloft all week with pulses of jet energy developing clusters of showery nne moving rains along and e of the Apps.
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Unsure whether anyone has posted on potential for heavy rain in our NYC subforum: Since last weekend when the EPS caught my eye on the southeastern USA closed low. The EC op has cyclically for I think at least 6 consecutive 12z/00z cycles been forecasting spotty 5" amounts by Wed night the 27th. It's location has varied across mostly LI/CT. So while it is likely to be spread out between Sunday afternoon-Wed night... it may become of interest for a few of our members. GEPS and GEFS not as enthusiastic so no guarantee. Fairly impressive long duration general southerly flow aloft/inverted trough. EPS has 2" LI by Wednesday. Could be a little thunder too, especially LI. Myself here in nw NJ, am anticipating several outdoor activity interruptions late Sunday-Thursday in periods of showery rains/drizzle.
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Attached: Event total for yesterday, and the combined two event totals late last week and yesterday. Click for clarity. Final batch of heavier rain was further east (E LI) where its still raining a bit at this time with only T-.05 NJ coast NYC overnight. Yesterday: Yankee evening game was rained out, lightning here and there and a few reports of small hail but rainfall not quite as heavy as expected. Still decent. Onward to what may or may not happen late Sunday-Monday in our NYC subform. OKX has responded in its early morning forecast with a 30% chance of showers. That's all you need right now to permit stakeholder consideration of uncertainty.
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Anyone notice recent EPS and to a lesser extent GEPS/GEFS qpf late Sunday-Monday the 23rd-24th. Just heard some bright dry forecasts in that time frame. Have my doubts... and I'd play it cautious about promising dry weather in that time frame. WPC has a hint.
