wdrag

Picking on the GEFS, or cherry picking? It seems to me the GEFS and GFS are not handling extent of measurable wintry weather (snow-ice) very well. For the Sunday (15th) morning 4AM forecast for e MA, the 00z/15 GEFS had a paltry less than 20% 48 hour chc of 3" se MA, almost nil ne MA. Most of coastal MA has had 3-4.5". Graphic added since it impacts early Sunday WFO issuances. Even 2-3" fell back in n central and nw MA. CoCoRaHs map will update tomorrow at 830AM with whatever two days we have) Also added a graphic for this Thursday evening from the 12z/16 GEFS cycle which has dominant qpf of rain across MA. I highly doubt that rain will be predominant at 00z-06z/20. 12z-18z/16 ops from EC/RDPS/NAM all ice or snow there and NAM/RDPS are tending to hold freezing temps or sink them slightly south Thursday evening into extreme nw NJ and the Poconos. This could be significant since ice could be predominant Catskills, higher Pocs and maybe even extreme nw NJ above 1000 feet. So let's see if the Canadian - EC - NAM end up too cold vs the GFS-GEFS. Graphic #2 added. These advance challenges are important to help balance our approach into the coming ptype... do we accept one model as gospel, or probably better, mentally blend (WFO's have digital blending techniques to assist their predictions).

Yep.: Even NYC parts of LI may see flurries, ice pellets or freezing drizzle this morning. Big messy storm found a way to work its moisture back, even into the east side of the Hudson River in se NYS. My faith in the GFS is in general agreement with most others here... not strong when compared to the EC/GGEM. Modeling isn't handling the rotation of bands of moisture very well and as I recall did not do that well with big ocean storms when I worked in Boston. Timing-placement a mess for these bands. I have no significant changes in my expectations for the 19th-20th and the two I84 corridor events of the 22nd-27th along with a general chilling the last 6 days of the month. 19th-20th favors mostly CT/MA/Catskills high terrain icing with a little minor backside snow on the 20th.

April 82?

Thank you Don... GGEM-CMCE does not look very good in these two links... Maybe I have a perception bias? We'll know in a few days.

Nice contribution-thanks.

Hi Don... if you have access to a simple and useful a stat to post... am interested in updated rankings GGEM/EC/GFS/UK in the cool season (possibly the period from Oct-Dec 2022 if we have it). I have no claim on GGEM tropical warm season verification. My interest, as I think most on here, is the cool season here in the eastern USA. Thanks in advance if you can dig it up. Walt

May I recommend dumping CFS looks... When this first came out in the 20teens, I thought it good. No longer do I think this is worthwhile product. Anyone disagrees please let me know. Thanks, Walt

I laugh sometimes at all the humor...it's pretty good. I like this one above since I'm a bit of an old guy, music wise. The Righteous Brothers circa 1964. I always say, don't look too far ahead. We have the next two weeks for a 'bit' of hope LI, including late tonight e tip LI. Nasty wind driven sleet and snow storm in progress now far se MA and CC. Added the seasonal snowfall (half the winter so far) for our part of the world. You can check the NOHRSC broader view in the pic within pic upper right (inset). Here's a tiny challenge? Can we double what's occurred, the rest of the 22-23 cool season??? By the way, Major cities season to date snowfall through yesterday. BOS 1.4; NYC, PHL, DCA, AVL Trace and oh, wouldn't you know it...my wife always says we should move south for snow. Atlanta 0.1". Can you beat that?

Some notes here: It looks to me like the big weekend of storm oft predicted by long rangers more than a week in advance (via upper air pattern) is going to happen for parts of coastal New England. Moral victory. My guess is a few power outages are ahead for the wind whipped wet snow laden branches-wires in southeast Massachusetts and I haven't studied what might happen in Maine. This is a big storm, just a little far offshore. I can see eastern LI getting involved in some snow-sleet-freezing rain late today or Monday morning. GEFS is finally at 24 hours coming on board. FGEN will drive some of the snow-sleet west from the MA coast later today-tonight. Bottom line, an event for the Boston area to the Cape Cod Canal. Thursday-Friday Jan 19-20 I84 corridor-Old Forge NY: Continues to look like a significant light to moderate winter storm for me. For now a messy mix of ice and snow. Many models suggest mainly ice. Ice amounts on untreated surfaces in the hilly terrain of CT and Massachusetts as well as Old Forge NY may be 1 to 2 tenths of an inch. Potential for a period of slippery travel, especially Old Forge NY and high terrain of the I-84 corridor. A manageable travel event, if you plan on a little extra time. Leading the pack for many days (IF THIS OCCURS as wintry mix for more than 6 hours) is the Canadian and all it's modeling. No guarantee this occurs as 1/4-2" of snow and 1-2 tenths of an inch of ice for I84 northward but other modeling at least favors I84 itself northward. For those south of I84, you see it as nada and I can live with that southeast of Newton NJ in Sussex County NJ. As far as more seasonably cold wintry temps: I am expecting that chillier air (colder than what we're experiencing now) will arrive here after the storm of the 23rd-24th and generally linger til about the end of the month before the first week or two of February reverts back to above or much above normal temps. I'll check back tomorrow. Have a decent Sunday and go big blue.

Hi! Please go back to the 06z/RGEM northeast region and lock on to 10/15z. Then go back 10 prior cycles for this 10z/14 time. Impressive? Note also you can do the same with total snowfall though that incorporates the entire time from init. Hope this is useful. I agree about low level... temp initializing from about 0 to -7 in the layer at or below 700MB which is nearly saturated. Bottom line, problematic modeling by most models, for something that has caused icy spots in CT and apparently Poconos. We have a ways to go on modeling. Fact that HRRR caught on very-very late, I think is partly due to obs/radar?

0.2" so far parts of nw CT hills.

I see flurries in NYC this morning. RGEM the only model to hint this. if you look back on modeling for this morning... which model had a bit of snow for CT/MA/LI this morning????? The RGEM and I think it was the RGEM only. You're invited to check back and call me on it. Certainly not the over hyped EC nor the maligned GFS. This at least is a moral victory for all who predicted a big winter event here for the 14th. Flurries are hope. Slight accums nowcast expectation today for parts of CT/LI.

I see flurries in NYC this morning. Big ocean storm already has zr- ORH earlier today. Will bring accumulative snowfall to much of e MA/far e CT by midday Monday. RGEM the only model to hint this mornings flurries. Meanwhile 19-20 depends on a couple of things, I think. This is a GEPS-CMCE (Canadian model) storm, in large part because it does not close off an upper low on the ejecting shortwave into the Great Lakes Friday. If the GEFS/EPS are right, very little snow ice. So, caution to the expectation due to diverse model opinions. I still lean Canadian. In fact, if you look back on modeling for this morning... which model had a bit of snow for CT/MA/LI this morning????? The RGEM and I think it was the RGEM only. You're invited to check back and call me on it.

And the two day snowfall for yesterday which was in the 1A-1P range of the 12th. Previous days Poconos nw NJ snowfall was posted yesterday. One error in the CoCoRaHs date..I think the 15" should be 1.5".

Looking ahead: Aside from what eastern MA and far eastern CT receive from the grazing large ocean storm this Sunday into Monday... it still looks interesting to me for our NYC subforum of the I84 corridor. You saw the spotty 1" amounts yesterday in the Catskills and nw CT, with many reports 0.1-0.7". My perception of what may be ahead and temporarily worthy of monitoring until it does its northeast winter 22-23 M.O. fade to nothing. Thursday-Friday Jan 19-20 I84 corridor. Significant winter storm compared to what we've had since Christmas, with for now mostly ice to rain I84 corridor but could see some snow involved. Potential for slippery travel, especially high terrain I84. The Canadian Model (overall worlds second or third best model) has been persistent about this occurrence since January 8th. The following week of Sunday the 22nd-Friday 27th poses one or two wintry weather challenges for the northeast USA, particularly the I84 corridor northward. LOOOONNG ways off=uncertainty on precip type.

Most of this early this morning...CoCoRaHs snow sleet accums (Click for clarity). Not shown here most of the E MA coast 0.1-2.0"

Kuchera 24 hour snowfall from 06z/12 EC OP cycle as ocean storm backing onto coast possible?

So far as of 655AM, 0.1" snow sleet and slippery all untreated surface. Temp was 32.5 prior to the start, then fell to 32.0 now. I think the NAM3K temps will be helpful today...VERY slow rise. Also I am paying attention to Tue 1/17 and especially Thu-Fri 1/19-20 as possible ice related event.

Yes, I'm still having fun on the edge of the I84 corridor! Next hope to see something a little white for the I84 corridor is midnight tonight to about midday Thursday with amounts mainly hills (1/2" or less) and maybe top it off with an hour or 2 of ice Thursday before the change to 33F rain-drizzle. All ensembles have this very minor snowfall but conservative is the way I have to look at this. 19th is of interest til modeling makes it too warm for snow or ice.

Probably won't happen, but a snow or ice involved event is possible I84 corridor though for now, would say the 19th is reserved for north of the MA Pike but a precip event seems possible. Track uncertain. GEPS-CMCE has it for now as I reviewed 00z/11 ensembles. All 24 hour positive snow depth change ensembles look slightly better beyond that (21st-26th), but that could be climo and so can't put much weight on anything beyond the 20th. If everything goes zilch, the ensemble minor 24 hour positive snow depth change I84 corridor should disappear within several days.

Unfortunately 18z/10 GEFS has NIL NYC and 1" or less remainder NYC subforum, but we have to start somewhere?

Wantage NJ 740'MSL 7" to date. Normal SEASONAL winter about 40" give or take an inch. I'll accept an inch between Thursday-Sunday here on the edge of I84 corridor, if we can be so fortunate. Check back tomorrow. Still some hope for Sat-early Sunday, but not much. It's just 96 hours from possibly sharpening a little more than modeled?

Added CoCoRaHs reports of snowfall overnight: A band into Morris County and a second area measurable e CT eastward. I'll keep checking models, especially for the unlikely event to emerge but for now... snow drought continues.

A disappointing overnight of rain instead of snow I78 with any snow on the northern most fringe interior NJ to maybe just n of I80. Nothing here in northern Sussex County NJ so far, except possibly a flurry. We stand at 7" for the season and while one 00z/9 op run of the EC suggests snow Saturday, all 00z/9 ensembles are basically less than 1" snow even I84, through the complex weekend storm. Still not a shutout on possibilities but unlikely in our area for much if any snow. Just pathetic. Can't even look beyond 1/15 for awhile til we get a broad cold 1030MB high spread across the far n part of NYS-New England.

Something I worry about: socially false record's or deep snow alarming based on models beyond 240 hours could shutter availability. Probably can't now but really need to reign it in on all boards...show more care. Eventually the models will be good enough but I think for now it's a little soon...at least until we get some cyclic consistency and other model support. So that +PNA (relaxing e Pac Jet) and trend to colder that has been discussed in broad terms for days now.... evidenced in the 12z/8 384 hr... a 1050MB high for 12z/23 attempting entry into the northern Plains. That would be a surface idea of +PNA response. It won't be perfect but 'suggests' some legit subnormal or normal cold air may eventually arrive in the northern USA. Leave it as possible response and lets see if D16-23 can in reality flush out the Pac air for a while?