wdrag

Many suffering people this Christmas morning via 857AM power outage report.

Looks very difficult to see any significant snow the first week or so of January. So far all ensembles have less than 1" of snow for NYC through Jan 9. That can change, but unlikely to show much before Jan 6.

Upper air patterns. Will they eventually allow January 2023 to approach normal (via piecemeal snow events) for the month, somewhere in our NYC subforum?

And so, most if not all our posters are pretty fortunate right now. If we had no heat like the 545AM/24 outage report appended, we'd be talking life threatening, frozen waters pipes and many thousands of dollars returning to normal. Enjoy this wonderful holiday season being warm. Walt

Wantage NJ SB around 1252P ended around 215P. 0.1"; a little more on grass. pavement and boards were too warm to start, to immediately accumulate. Will try and let you know how moisture dries or freezes. Now 24.8F.

Wantage NJ at 740'MSL. 31.8F estimated 1.5MI S-

Flurries have started in this section of Wantage at 1252PM. 36.5F. max G today 27 MPH but even scattered power outages in Sussex County NJ. obviously much more widespread eastern USA. Saw some 60 KT gusts recently BTV BUF.

Lots of 40s (knots) w PA. Wind just now coming up in the east part of PA. ne PA inverted last night and so 850jet flew over the top. Ppower outages in PA attm tell the story of developing problems.

Please note CoCoRaHs snowfall map attached as well as NWS local snowfall reports and the CoCoRaHs 24 hour rainfall (not much LI, heavy rain focused Hud Valley). There was some marginal ice from Easton PA yesterday through nw NJ. Salting was needed and it still was a little icy at 6PM in Wantage where frozen ground kept it slippery despite temps of 33F We are not done, back end on its way today. Regarding big storms at new-full moon. No idea except with tide cycles more extreme, coastal flooding likely to be larger in a big storm, rather than mid cycle.

Please note CoCoRaHs snowfall map attached as well as NWS local snowfall reports and the CoCoRaHs 24 hour rainfall (not much LI, heavy rain focused Hud Valley). There was some marginal ice from Easton PA yesterday through nw NJ. Salting was needed and it still was a little icy at 6PM in Wantage where frozen ground kept it slippery despite temps of 33F We are not done, back end on its way today.

50 kt near HFD recently. Power outages continue to increase in this storm, (once in a generation)? how about Jan 20, 1978-yikes in my generation for that storm being worse than this for much the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region.. Need low pressure to come up from GMEX for these super storms (Moisture). Back around 1030A.

Add: HPN 46 kt and ISP 45 kt. Active day. NYC you might see 0.1" snowfall at 1PM. Power outages are increasing. Bad news if you're not restored by 6PM.

So far as of about 425A: NYS coming up in power outage. I've seen 44KT LGA, 47 KT PVD and 51KT ATL where the most power outages are in the USA (GA). Attached maps of mesonets as of 425A. I see a 56 MPH ne NJ and 61 MPH in w LI

I'll add 50 knotters if I get a chance overnight, otherwise a quick summary at 6A. Right now nationally on power.

As of 230PM. Negligible power outages in the northern USA. Should be more interesting tomorrow morning.

For what it's worth... Lords Valley in ne PA (CoCoRaHs), Poconos had 3/4" of snow in Pike County PA near exit 34 on I-84, before changing to sleet.

For what it's worth... Lords Valley in ne PA, Poconos had 3/4" of snow in Pike County PA near exit 34 on I84, before changing to sleet.

Southern Wantage NJ (8 s High Point NJ) had a mix of freezing rain, sleet, wet snow 11A-1P with a slushy slippery film on most surfaces. Newton NJ had icy spots in the County parking lot at 1PM tho the wet snow-rain mix had become all rain.

Southern Wantage NJ (8 s High Point NJ) had a mix of freezing rain, sleet, wet snow 11A-1P with a slushy slippery film on most surfaces. Newton NJ had icy spots in the County parking lot at 1PM tho the wet snow rain mix had become all rain.

Excellent! Thank you.

I continue interested in the fluxes with this storm, including front and back end snow here Sussex County/Poconos. Also with a a 970s low in the Great Lakes, hard to see how we don't see widespread 45 MPH gusts either Thu night or Friday. I know 850 winds are down from where'd I'd like and that the sounding is inverted or isothermal most of the time when 850 winds are more than 50kts, so this one may escape us without 65 MPH gusts (LI eastern New England) but I'm still looking. Regarding the apparently very warm shift middle of next week or beyond... I see it. Yet, ensembles still have hints of a minor snow over the interior from VA to BOS, 24 hr snow depth change centered around 00z/THU the 29th. I think the EPS still has favorable upper air with lagging 500MB trough to our west Tuesday evening... not so the GEFS/GEPS. So while it probably won't happen...it's not yet off the table til the EPS shifts the trough eastward faster. Yep, am grasping for straws... still this storm just ahead has my attention. FLASH FREEZE: I don't think this is defined in the Glossary of Meteorology. I'll try for an hourly 10 degree drop from above freezing to below freezing with precipitation ongoing through that hour. If someone is aware of flash freeze definition---please send us a note. Thanks

Not sure if anyone considered this... When surface pressure is below 1000MB at any location here, you can pretty much be assured that the sfc wind will gust at whatever the lowest model level wind is. I'll be looking at the the BL wind on the NAM FOUS61 tomorrow for a minimum gust at whatever it says. That is without turbulent-turnover transfer from above. So, if you have access to 1000mb winds today, I think you'll have an idea at minimum gusts Friday. After that. it's a matter of turbulent transfer whether it is from the low level lapse rate, or showery precip, or eddies of excessive wind aloft. I am looking for pockets damaging wind as early as 12z Friday, up to within 1 hour post CFP Fri afternoon. I am also favoring the stronger GFS on this. That could be my downfall. Glad I'm not flying Thu-Fri. Gone for the day.

EC doesn't have it (the Friday snow burst) yet, not clearly, but I trust the GFS. I think it's onto it. IF the GFS is wrong about the 975 redeveloping low in the Catskills Friday, then the snow burst is unlikely and a little less wind. I think the GFS is correct but maybe a couple MB too low. Meanwhile it seems the EC op is mostly onto the Great Lakes upper Ohio Valley blizzard. However, note the EC is getting colder and colder in the POCS newd Thursday. Check out the 06z/20.

So we are aware of wind, coastal flood threats with this storm in and near NYC and the 26th-28th period of snow or sleet potential that is seemingly coming back on board after a few days hiatus. The Thu-Fri storm may add some wintry interest: both front 9AM-3PM Thursday and back end 11A-5P Friday for Sussex County NJ to west of Hartford CT and of course the Poconos. T-1" snow-sleet front end, but back end looks much more potent to me, especially plunging temps and what appears to be a short burst of intense snowfall coating roads (0.2-1.5"). and NYC: I could see spotty slippery conditions developing sometime late in the afternoon with a short burst of snow (less than 1/2"). Modeling will help in the future confidence of any of this occurring. Will check back tonight or tomorrow.

D3 (Thu night) thunderstorm potential up here in the strong WAA pattern. Marginal risk is further south in e VA/NC.