wdrag
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Everything posted by wdrag
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fwiw..CPC mid afternoon issuance today has D6-10 and 8-14 above normal qpf our area... suggests possibilities of a storm.
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possible. laying low on this but continue to look at something week two Sept. Nothing obvious, for now.
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Does look interesting to me after Sept 7 for the tropics along the mid Atlc and northeast USA coast...... weakness troughing and tending to develop trough westward and latitudinally further south from the Atlantic and signs of storms in the w Atlc in ensemble members. Two sets of ensembles have in recent cycles shown above normal rainfall for NYC subforum in the period roughly 9/8-15. (EPS/GEPS).
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For what it's worth, I always follow up, good or bad on sense of what may happen. Posted p1 March whenever this thread started. Will March average within a degree of normal at CP... possibly less than the actual January 2023 average. Also, can March reach the 5" average for snowfall at CP? Prevailing impressions from the snow drought distraught are probably not. As it turns out... March was another dud for the winter. Mean temp: Jan 43.5. Feb 41.1. March 44.6. (PLUS 1.8F) Have a super summer.
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Did go back and verify. Last 9 days were 3F cooler in CP than the mid Feb 10 day period. Not much more I can say about general ensemble value, expect that its positive in a general sense week two-three.
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Wantage NJ in far nw NJ 0.2" and light snow at 445AM 32.2.F. most of the snow since about 3AM.
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Wantage NJ. 245A total 3.6". 2-3" on pavement. 31.8F.
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Wantage NJ 4sw (this southern part). 2.7" new snow since 640PM change over. Next measurement around 430 AM. 31.8F. Everything covered-draped in wet snow. Light snow continues at 1050PM. Good night.
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Wantage Nj 4sw: snow increase 1.2" past hour with 1.3" since it began all sow around 640P. All surfaces including unplowed-untreated pavements with at least 1" cover. 32.2F.
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Wantage NJ (this part) 0.6" on grass etc, none on pavement. Nothing like Bethleham PA above. 31F light nw wind at 4A.
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Wantage (this southern part) NJ 6.2" total with the dense small flake snow of 4A now becoming less dense but larger flakes. Down to 25.9F. I'm thinking this snow will survive the 50F attack on Thursday with a leftover inch or 2 in advance of Friday. Also, I don't think we're quite done today (may be another 1/2" here in far nw NJ) here but essentially storm over. Roads plowed and wet even here at mid 20s temp.
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Wantage NJ - this part of elevated Sussex County at 740' MSL. 1.5" since the 1245A report for a total of 5.8" and very fine tiny flake snow in progress. 28F
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Wantage NJ, this southern part at 740'MSL 1245AM report 4.3". Light snow in progress with 29F. Beautiful.
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Wantage NJ 0.3" snow 630-7P. sleeting since then. all untreated surfaces slippery.
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agreed.
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True. I just checked 00z/GEPS press 18z/2. the 12z/25 GGEM op is 15MB lower in MA with its 991MB low. Could it verify? Unlikely when all ensembles are much weaker. Trop tidbits has the ens MSLP and worth a check. Check Mon night and Fri-Sat. My snow at 0.7" in this in part of Wantage. I'm done for the day, possibly weekend.
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I don't think so. Look at all ens qpf. While EPS is still down, it has 1/2" qpf up here and some of that will be snow just w of I95. The 00z EC operational went pretty big snow in VA (check it) from nill all prior cycles. It's tasting the stronger short wave potential. I expect the GGEM to come on board by the 12z/26 cycle. If not, then GFS wayyyyy off but I give this time. GGEM 12/25z op likes the 3/2 event very strong and have doubts. If its not strong on 3/2, then this will probably drift to a bigger storm for the ne USA on Fri-Sat. I have to give this time to wiper back and forth at D6.
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good.
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I've grown bit more conservative in my 60th year attempting these forecasts (probably should have learned that 25 years ago). Forum can say and do whatever, though myself... I think whatever we say needs to be with consideration of whatever results. Thanks for your update.
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Not a severe change and not only that but reliance on the GFS as primary guide not likely best solution. Plus all the guidance I've been looking at including ensembles has suggested to me the following as locally posted to a set of friends early this morning. 3-6" for SC and Poconos northward to OF and Boston area. Cannot use literal amounts at 72 hours. GFS hasn't had much for LI/NYC as I've been monitoring it..less than 1". When the Canadian (warmer model than EC/GFS) dumps it... then I question. 12z Canadian continues south of GFS. I'll await demise when Canadian and EC quit.
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OK... suggest consideration basing assessment on not only GFS but Canadian and EC and not instant.
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? from what and where.
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Wantage NJ: SB near 9A. 0.2" at 1005A. all untreated surfaces covered including untreated roads. 19F after a morning low of 15.
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Will March average within a degree of normal at CP... possibly less than the actual January 2023 average. Also, can March reach the 5" average for snowfall at CP? Prevailing impressions from the snow drought distraught are probably not. Still worthy of keeping the door open for a while. These two CPC graphics issued 2/24 serve as basis for interest.
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A little look back at the steps the cool season is taking to knocking down negative snow departures to maybe less than 50% of normal by seasons end. Instead of 25" below normal, seems to me just 10-20" below normal. I am sure we are in a come back through at least the first day of spring. Can March follow the Jan to Feb temp trend and average less than the previous month? IE Feb a degree cooler than Jan. A normal March would be just a degree or above Feb. The current attached CPC outlooks are trying to imply a normal or below normal March barring unforeseen large + departures the first and last weeks of the month. I am surprised no major weather media - NOAA folks are talking about the mid Feb "start warm" and developing wintry impacts. Would make a buzz socially as did polar vortex. I guess it didn't happen in the midst of cold season so impacts not as severe. Nevertheless, while I haven't studied the strat warm results, it seems like a long duration change is in progress starting the last week of Feb and per latest EC weeklies recently posted plus the developing tendency for a +PNA and big AK ridge, while the more or less 50/50 low -NAO allows big cold air to resupply southern Canada and in spurts the northern USA. Looks like good sledding all across the northern USA the next few weeks, including the northeast, presuming we get normal or above normal precip after March 5. Adding a bunch of graphics: Two of them verify minor snow events of 2/21, 2/22, no mPing for the brief sleet-snow midday the 22nd in and near NYC despite ASOS not seeing sleet at 39F, the guidance leading up to Monday nights oncoming wintry weather (yes mainly rain parts of LI and s of I78) and what I think is a pretty good chance of a larger precip event here Fri-Sat March 3-4 (some of it wintry). Snowpack will be edging south and allowing colder air to hang closer to NYC. Witness the snowpack in northern MA now, and the results in tomorrow mornings temps up there. 2/21 and 2/22 cocorahs graphics... minor but slight impacts I84 corridor with minor snow and ice. WPC D7 prob of 3" of snow-sleet. Not too bad as its shaping up... gave us some support at interest. How about that Feb 15 CPC graphic and key messages. Note the heavy snow chance for the northern part of our NYC subforum, Todays 2/24 CPC issuances D8-14 from CPC and their week 3-4... Click for clarity, if interested.
