wdrag
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I did note no FFW's overnight... NWS win but imo, wasn't the best choice where modeling emphasized 3+" in 24 hours overnight. However, it is noted no big problems in that zone, to my knowledge as of 9A/25. Conservative wins on my awareness concern.
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Via CoCoRaHs climate two day storm totals as someone else said 1-5". The 13.31 in sw CT is obvious typo. Southern Ocean County NJ had a 5+ and undoubtedly with more coming into Tuesday morning, some of these amounts will go up. Many reports 3-4" overnight ne PA arced across just to the north of I84 in NYS-CT. Modeling by the GFS for this entire event was woeful... just not very good. Remember early NAM etc had 4" Hud Valley. Watch the NAM and RGEM for clues on modeling for the 28th-30th. More on that in the Sept thread.
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So tomorrow morning we'll know whether another small but significant FF event has occurred without a watch se NYS/extreme ne NJ. AWARENESS, especially nighttime is quite valuable and especially when modeling is giving an option of spot 4-6" up there. Sure looks like big delays tomorrow morning coming into NYC from NYS, maybe northern NJ too.
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More background... Ophelia leaves behind an impression at the surface, but a new short wave cutting across CHIcago 12z Wed, sort of gets absorbed into the remnant trough aloft off the mid Atlantic coast with subsequent building heights in southern Canada forcing the trough to become stronger and possibly sag west or southwest. Upwelling from recent Tropical systems still leaves behind 70+SST off the mid Atlantic coast, and with the system lingering over those 70+SST waters Oct 1... I could see this starting to transition to at least partial warm core, if not Sunday..maybe Monday or Tuesday. Hope this is of value. Don't like wasting time. I see 12z Modeling keeps this option open. Right now, it's further south than I anticipated. However, if this does go subtropical and lingers long enough over those waters, it eventually heads north or northeast. Anyway, I think it bears monitoring and I wouldn't put away the sand shovels yet along the waterfronts, nor leave my car parked near the break wall, thinking this weekend was the worst. Just don't know.
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Uncertainty but I think there will be substantial northeast-east isobaric gradient developing sometime in this time frame with tides starting out 1/2-3/4 foot higher than than that of current Ophelia impact. This combined with the continued daily constancy of onshore flow that began Sept 22 for NJ-DE-MD suggests to me increased beach erosion-coastal flooding """potential"""" beyond that of Ophelia Questions: If this low pressure system does form, can it muster subtropical characteristics and la-lo track of the center. Worthy of monitoring. Right now I can't grab anything from the FSU web site to check phase diagrams. I added the EPS 24 hr QPF ending Saturday morning suggesting something going on late this coming week.
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Adding this for a a late week tease by the EPS
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Started thread because of my concern for a higher impact sub tropical storm off the mid-Atlantic coast combining with tides 1/2-3/4 foot higher than what we saw for Ophelia this weekend of Sept 23rd-24th. Would compound damage from Ophelia, especially beach erosion with constancy of northeast wind from Sept 22 through probably October 3rd.
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Added the CPC October outlook as prepared Thursday Sept 21.
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Following up on the 748AM Saturday post above: NJ coast is possibly in a period of a two week repeated tidal flooding-serious beach erosion in spots, during the highest daily tide cycles. More on that in an updated post here or separate new topic post coming around 9A which will include my 60-70% expectation of gale-wind-rain NYC subforum between Thu the 28th and Sunday Oct 1. Timing uncertain but my confidence is increasing despite model disagreement. If this gale occurs for NJ coast, it will be a more serious damage event than the current Ophelia event. Also, per modeled upper air weakness this is not the last of the potential for a tropical system to the mid Atlantic coast in early-mid October, beyond whatever possible hybrid might occur Sep 30-Oct 1.
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WPC FFG through 12Z Monday, and I think this has a decent chance of realization ne NJ, extreme se NYS, with a lower chance CT but these locations are where I think spot new 24 hours 4" can occur by 12z/Monday with slow moving upper low, and PW near 1.65", possibly permitting focused 2-3" of rain in 6 hours above mentioned areas. Axis of max rainfall I suspect will be north of I78 next 24 hours so the 4-5" in Ocean County NJ as seen on this two day CoCoRaHs total will probably remain below 7" with max rainfall arced somewhere between 180-184. See Sept topic for what I think is a likely gale NJ coast late this week, the uncertainty...how far north...does it include the NYC subforum a little further south? On the graphs: click for clarity. Thanks.
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Easterly gradient and tidal flooding Thursday Sep 28-Sunday Oct 1. Multiple tide cycles have a chance of minor coastal flooding, with moderate possible on one or two cycles as tides runs high in this time frame. Modeling is trying to develop low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast with a fairly strong high over New England. Could be of future interest for tides/gale/rain for NJ/LI?
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As of 11z/23... GFS is short=LOW on qpf NJ/PA and modeling forward looks to me like any combo of other models and their ensembles will be more realistic in results than the 00z-06z/23 GFS-GEFS combo. That means for me... spotty 5" rainfall in NJ (and possibly LI portion) of the subforum by 18z/Monday the 25th. Minor flooding at the higher of the high tides this weekend. Max wind axis more or less where it is now...maybe drifting a bit north which favors 40-50 MPH gusts southern edge of the subforum -southern Ocean County. Canadian modeling tip: RGEM when it shows light precip...that often being drizzle; whereas HRRR does not tend to show drizzle but performs fairly well on axis of heavier qpf. Already measuring here in extreme nw NJ. Commenting on Sep 28-30 in that topic.
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May be time to get this into separate subject... now that NHC has it as a disturbance eventually turning out to near the benchmark. I won't be able to do anything with this after 4P and for me probably needs another ensemble cycle (00z/22). I sure hope this isn't another (as in the 7th-14th of Sep) non watch FFW situation for PHL/NYC metro areas this weekend. General stream flow potential is low but it seems to me that 6 hr FFG for ne NJ is under 2"= vulnerable. Monitoring
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Good to know the general stats and agree w you on need for more dstorm track detail! I tend to support the GFS in summer due to convection being handled pretty well by the GFS but this is more of a winter synoptic pattern so the CMC has a good chance of being reasonably accurate as compared to GFS/EC op. Ensembles have saved our bacon, I think, in too much trimming northern fringe. Other short term modeling soon comes into forecasting play by this time tomorrow.
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Checked a few of this pages comments and agreed... imo, EC-GFS may not be doing too well in the longer ranges with qpf here in the NYC subforum with overall GEPS seeming to be better allowing soaker 1"+ up to I90. Not a done deal north of I84 but sure looks like a somewhat nasty 5-7 day period Sat 23rd-Fri 29th. Spot 4-6" NJ-LI/e PA seem probable. Rainouts of MLB games possible NYC, PHL, DCA meaning some might be doubled up on a day or not played at all depending on MLB impacts.
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Hmmm.... last two weeks not quite zero on action. As posted just a bit earlier in this thread, spot 4" Hud Valley Monday the 18th, and EPS has quite a trough se USA last week of Sept that I didn't notice 24 hours ago... that would be wet and tropical plume if it were to occur. Monitoring... 936A/16
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Quick review on Sept 7-14 rainfall: Was 1-2" lower than long range guidance anticipated with max amounts in our NYC subforum 6-7.5" (not all data probably in CoCoRaHs but enough to demo the FF near AVP, PHL, Ocean County, CT/MA). Were there any 10's in our subforum..probably NOT. Our home here in Wantage NJ was a paltry 1.41. Here's the always subdued multisensor smoothed data from the NWS, and CoCoRaHs. Click for clarity. Lee and its scraper impacts coming to coastal New England as well modeled - well in advance. Nothing else excites me about extremes the rest of September around our NYC subforum.
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A tease for the 00z/11 EPS... e LI around 35 MPH in the median ensemble and 60 MPH ACK Sunday afternoon.
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9/11: not a good day Probably not posting after 9A today til Tuesday night... but for what its worth over 5" last night in extreme sw NJ and 4" NYS mesonet week total just n of NYC. I'm seeing a fair amount of FFW's without watch past couple of days. Note sure what that is about. For me its's AWARENESS. That helps in difficult situations. Most of us will be near 2" by 00z/15 except maybe less e LI. however, looks to me like spotty 6" CT/NYS/e PA/NJ with isolated 10" still possible dependent on what happens this afternoon-eve and then the Wednesday bands of heavy rain. Always uncertainty but not benign, in my mind. Interesting Lee tendency on the 15th-16th... probably just a scraper for coastal New England with northerly winds and some rain, this per WPC and modeling. Still a worthy monitoring situation and I don't want to look at 23rd yet. Walt. 719A/11
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Continuing personal theme of Sept 7-14. Amounts as posted by NWS in the subforum seem to be missing 'isolated'big amounts 3-4.8" so far, as documented in state climate data or prior LSR's. This is becoming important in assessment. My concern is not only north of I78 in NJ/PA, se NYS but now CT, through Wednesday evening. Scranton area: There have been road washouts/bridges out/injuries/ and at least 1 fatality vicinity Scranton PA and while that is not in the NYC subforum, it does suggest isolated potential in the subforum... this afternoon-tonight, and Tuesday night-Wednesday. See attachments for documentation of FF ( tiny sampler), FFG which I think in our area if exceeds 2.5": in 6 hours, you'll get FF (NOT talking the general river flooding, but what I feel is the more dangerous isolated hillside/urban runoff/creek FF). and added the 12z/10 SPC HREF MAX rainfall potential which is not necessarily very reliable but suggests renewed heavy convection later today/tonight with potential for "isolated" max amounts 3-5", ne PA/ This is not a benign pattern, though many in our NYC subforum will only nickel and dime for the next day or two. and this is only with PW of near 1.75" through tonight and again Wednesday morning.
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Am continuing theme of spotty life threatening FF, road washouts along and N of I78 PA/NJ into se NYS, especially metro and hillsides by 00z/15. Already spotty 3+ from what I can tell ne NJ and these two weekend afternoons-evening will be vigorous. Looks like Wednesday the 13th is the packed PW axis in what I think is LEE assisted ULL jet structure/convergence---6 hour 2-4" event somewhere near I95. Thereafter, presuming Lee gets lost in the northward shuffle and does not accelerate, then problems develop next weekend as GEFS/GEPS/EPS guidance are increasingly going with a deepening trough in the Great Lakes and multiple ensembles have decent 24 hour rainfall near the 17th e LI e New England. So for me, I wait before saying expanding Lee wind-pf fields not scraping e New England. We should know more late Monday the 11th. Not starting a topic on this 7th-14th heavy rain period, until I'm absolutely sure of more than "isolated" 10" in the NYC subforum. Note the LSR's from OKX/PHI on the rain reports. For now, SVR dominates the past two days in extensiveness. That should change this weekend. Also 00z/9 CSU Machine Learning GEFS Probs are of interest next weekend on FF. Day 7-8 has a good chance of failure to produce but it is of some interest to me as this pattern unfolds for the northeast USA. I'm not tossing a bunch of graphics out since I won't be able to find-verify, since expect many future comments coming. For now, I think the potential around here is a bit underplayed. Walt 951A/9
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Was thinking a topic for widespread 2-5" rainfall with isolated 10" would be some of value for the period 00z/8-00z/15 but held off due to FFG, ensemble river stage forecasts being conservative. Still, I think by the time next Thursday night comes around, isolated life threatening flooding-infrastruture damage will have occurred in the NYC subforum due to repeated 1-4 hour R+ events. Enough spacing between events permits the recovery needed to probably forego widespread flood damage problems but needs monitoring. This pattern between tonight -Monday, and then reenergized by northward moving Lee interactions with the UL jet Ohio Valley to Bay of Fundy next Wed-Thu is going to result in some significant problems. Where/when is more of a question for me. Fairly certain damaging wet microburst severe embedded-so monitoring SPC/local office statements is worthy. On Lee: if it crosses 70W as it comes around the western Atlantic ridge ahead of the uncertain amplitude of the approaching 5H trough middle of next week, then a New England scraper would be possible. Lots of uncertainty on the shape of the approaching trough middle of next week. Added WPC 7 day contoured forecast issued early this Thursday morning 9/7/23
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Rainfall NYC metro, imo, probably ranges from 1/4" e tip LI to maybe spotty 6-8" nw NJ-nw CT/ne PA between Thursday evening the 7th and Wednesday evening the 13th, as modeling from vicinity Aug 30-31 continues excessive potential. This does not include the LEE interaction of Wed/Thu Sept 15-16, if its delayed that long. That interaction would probably be enhanced RRQ upper level jet se Canada and some packing of PW along the I95 corridor near CF, for a band of 6-12 hour potentially excessive... but that latter 9/15-16 still just a model suggested vision which adjusts in the future. In the meantime: probabilistic guidance probably not seen by many... but added here to show potential in GEFS guidance for SVR D1-8. Brown is very low prob but still notable for not discarding the possibility. I think this is useful for consideration. Have a hot enjoyable day. Walt
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Modeling that I like to review is staying on target... I think lots of rain coming up 9/8-15 for the NYC metro into PA/NYS/NJ/LI. WPC is growing its area of general 1.5+ through the 12z/4 cycle. How the probable strong TS interacts along the mid and n talc coast is still up for debate. For now, am not ruling out contribution to rain along the coasts as suggested by ensembles---too much uncertainty to be sure right now (for me). Ensembles have been consistently offering a separate R+ area just of the mid Atlc coast to the s of LI near 9/15 in the ensembling via tropical tidbits. Long-long way to go, in part dependent on the probable TS strengthening and building the 5H ridge to the east-northeast of Bermuda, and in part how the southward extent of the troughing at 5H in the Great Lakes-Tennessee Valley evolves 12-17 time frame. I would hope that mariners are monitoring potential for a storm along 70-65W next week, hoping that future trends shunt east of 65W.
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D6-10 and 8-14 from CPC issued this afternoon continues a wet second week of Sept around here. Troughing: still plenty of time to turn the flow more ssw at 5H instead of wsw, and draw the offshore tropical system further nw. Current little dry spell beyond Wed the 6th = decreasing chances.
