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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
    Should this storm be named for our purposes??? Ophelia Reflux? We need to go back to Tuesday and look at the north edge suppression of PW 1.7” and see if it was shoved south to 35N70W and popped back up this morning to s if LI. That’s number one item.
  2. wdrag
    Snapshot of 2-4.3" that has fallen via this CoCoRaHs climate reports this morning. Click for clarity. Be smart crossing roads where water flowing quickly over roads, especially after sunset.
  3. wdrag
    Thanks for all the useful posts. Now 2.5-2.75 coastal Monmouth into Queens. If I get a chance I'll set a 24 hour NJ CLIU at Noon and then add up new from there as first dribs and drabs began midday yesterday in NJ.
  4. wdrag
    For now, staying in tropical (sub) for October posts, but first week of Oct looks interesting to me off the SE USA coast tracking northward ahead the next weekend cold front. No blatant signs but modeling does have low pressure strewing off the se coast USA and for me it's a worthy monitor for developing another significant rain event here Friday the 6th-Sunday the 8th...at least LI/CT.
  5. wdrag
    Thanks for this... did spot check just now. Let's talk again when our 445P CLI rolls in for the traDdtional long term sites.
  6. wdrag
    I just checked BDR, ISP and CP. 24 hours top 10 may be in reach depending on which 24 hour period you use. #10 is around 4.5-5". Two day looks like 6-7.25" will put you in top 10. Wont post those details til we get within an inch. So, wasn't looking for the month. Looking for the event. Glad you have the month tucked in somewhere. Can't keep up with this and Homelife. You all have it.
  7. wdrag
    Yes, the way it looks to me is many 5-10" reports in the prime zone near NYC-LI northward Hud River to the Ct River. Also need to check all time 24 hour and 48 hour rainfall CP for starters, maybe POU and BDR ISP to see if we get top 10 historically-Bluewave check? And power outages could become a problem by tonight-sodden group tree up roots? Finally, most dangerous time for travel could be this evening-night in the last big pileup of flooding rain. This graphic is from 18z/28 but looks pretty good to me for best areas to monitor. T
  8. wdrag
    For what its worth...have checked some Climate station data NYS Mesonet and NJ meson, plus our house in Wantage of far nw NJ. The OKX and BGM STP's (Derived storm total on the Radarscope APP) look accurate. Am over 1/2" in Wantage and over 2.2" parts of w LI. I'd be checking that for reality and kudos HRRR and NAM/RRFS late yesterday for honing in on primary threat FF zone.
  9. wdrag
    So what I'm following in the modeling this weekend and to whatever it is or isn't early next week. Attached 48 HRRR satellite and gust prediction--a model individual cycle snapshot for 18z Saturday Oct 30. Gusts probably 10 MPH too high at 48 hours but worthy of monitoring?
  10. wdrag
    So this is what I'm going to follow in the tropical discussion as this gale center possibly transitions in its se-s motion away from us Sunday. It's modeling and the HRRR could be 10 MPH too high on its 48 hour 65 MPH gust prediction for early Saturday afternoon but with showers there... I wouldn't want to be sailing. NOT smart, imo. 18z Saturday satellite simulation from the 18z/28 HRRR and its gust prediction well south of LI/RI
  11. wdrag
    Smattering of 0.01-.02 se NYS and NJ so far since midday including Wantage NJ. Global models not changing too much on amounts...general 1-3 spot 4. Blend of Models, 13z/28 version, finally hammered NYC/e NJ etc with 4-7" but this takes into account the the mesoscale models. Those mesoscale continue bullish, though I think shifting east to favor more LI/CT, NYC/Hud River and extreme e NJ... their amounts seem so high for a cooler surface temp/dewpoint. My guess is the RRFS is too far west with BOM near NYC and the HRRR SPC HREF more CT/LI eastern NJ/NYC seem to me more probable, at least at this juncture, but could still shift a bit. I added SPC HREF chance of 3" in 6 hrs ending 18z/29 (grey-20% chance), and its overall 48 hour mean and max. These are big numbers... but for me disturbing that the globals including SREF are considerably less. Click for clarity.
  12. wdrag
    NON TS expert comment. Just using guidance. Will review much more closely on the 29th when our low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast is becoming better defined. All I see on FSU multi global model phase diagrams(00z/28) is opportunity to become a warmer core by Oct 1, with track Oct 1 onward having opportunity to drift south to southwest but still well off the Carolinas. For now it's nothing and good to keep a lid on what I see is as a meandering potential tropical system early next week off the se USA coast. If this does happen, then it eventually picks up in a NNE track by the 7th. Still of interest for me...but thinking will know much more late Friday on it's potential evolution to a warmer core. Just need to monitor. 8A/28.
  13. wdrag
    I'll add my 2c at 5P... suggest mowing completed today. You may not like your soggy ground even on a rain free Sunday I84 corridor southward NJ-seNYS-SNE-LI. My guess is that NWS is waiting on any FFA because the GEFS/SREF/NAEFS are much more conservative than the GEPS-EPS 2-4" event and as you've all posted the iso 7" on highly resolved mesoscale guidance. Also, NWS may be holding off due to no ensemble guidance showing minor flooding which is because these river forecasts use the ensemble output which seems to me wayyy too low. More at 5P after mowing.
  14. wdrag
    I think our WFO's tend to stay close to WPC beyond 12 hours... one NWS voice. They also had the conservative GEFS on their low side. Just saw the 18z EC OP... continues bullish-attached. Uncertainty with RRFS/NAM tending more NYS or west of NYC, while EC is definitely east of RRFS. Time to iron this out and also figure the confidence of seeing any 6's. NWS Blend of Models also much less than EC/EPS, GEPS, RRFS/NAM. Walt
  15. wdrag
    Periods of rain, some of it heavy at times is destined for most of the NYC subforum Friday-Saturday as low pressure develops off the mid Atlantic coast into a vertically deep slow moving cyclone. PW increases at times to near 1.7" in warm advection along the inverted trough Friday then the pinwheeling PWAT circles back around our area Saturday. Gusty northeast-east winds Friday morning to 35 MPH and the constancy of northeast flow this week at the time of the highest tides in Sept should yield at least minor coastal Flooding within 2 hours of high tides Friday and possibly moderate coastal flooding at the highest tide cycle Saturday or Sunday as the backwash of the offshore storm shoots some 45 MPH north-northeast winds down the NJ coast by Sunday morning. The previous 3-4 day rains are attached, and the numbers for this coming one may exceed 6" again in parts of the NYC subforum. If so, where? It's possible, despite all this projected rain, that flooding might be imited to a few small areas. Too early to be sure as of 447PM/27. The EPS has been most aggressive with this system since 9/24 cycles and the 12z/27 EPS mean rainfall is attached. These values are quite high and much higher than the GEFS 12z/27 cycle with the GEPS midway between. If it causes fresh water flooding---where? Not sure this will be very much freshwater flooding except possibly NJ/CT/urban LI. This topic should serve also for the rainfall reports. at 505PM added the tag power outages. If this rainfall develops per the more aggressive 12z/27 EPS mean, rain softened ground from this past weekend combined with new 2+" rainfall may allow spotty power outages due to tree uproots of still fully leaved trees.
  16. wdrag
    Have waited this out and so as a NON-expert in tropical storm genesis... but using extra tropical ensemble upper air guidance and the surface response off the mid-Atlantic coast late this week, I think we'll see a significant low roughly 37/72 by 12z/30, meander east-then south or south-southwest in the following days and go through a phase change over the warmer SST's between Oct 1-3. I'll leave it at that since I'm not an expert but I think the western Atlantic is interesting, not only from the cold core development 29th-30th, then thereafter the possible evolution the first week of October. Just looks to me like the door is open off the southeast-mid Atlantic coast first week of October. I don't know how the currently modeled tropical systems south central Atlantic play into this.
  17. wdrag
    I agree: I can get this going at 5PM, pending 12z cycle. I see the 06z/NAM has gotten back on track... probably too far west but at least its sending pockets of heavy rain northward into the NYC subforum. The 06z RGEM continues on track with its 00z/27 predecessor and from what I can tell...combined with the persistent EPS (EC op has been a little east), I think this is looking like coastal NJ/extreme se NYS/LI/CT-SNE storm where widespread 1-2" with iso 4 or 5 possibly ble. The 1/4 stuff I think is reserved for e PA/Catskills, I90 and maybe extreme nw NJ. Coastal flooding minor per NWS, but I'm thinking this evening and Wednesday evening and then potential worst of this last half of Sept, occurring Saturday mid morning high tide cycle (MDT), and possible ditto Sunday mid morning.
  18. wdrag
    Just re-running this post from 9/24. Other than the 00z/27 NAM, this looks to be correct for what seems like a pretty big event Friday in the NYC subforum, particularly se NYS/CT/LI/coastal NJ with a potential for mdt coastal flooding at the highest of the high tide cycles, as well widespread 1/4-3" of rain with isolated 5'? 00z/27 RDPS has 6". Best axis of max rainfall uncertain but it looks like PA/Catskills least likely for R+... nose of the inverted trough and organizing low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast the culprits. EPS from 18z/26 is even larger than what am showing from last Saturday. Also, it still seems to me that we're in general onshore flow here in the NYC subforum, especially NJ/LI through the first week of October, although I could see a day of north or north-northwest.
  19. wdrag
    3 day totals per the CoCoRahS sampling. Note the 5's and 6's in parts of the NYC subforum central coastal NJ, nw of Port Jervis NY, near POU and HFD. Then as many times, little as sampled near BDR. Most should be satisfied with the short term (NAM etc) QPF guidance and some of the LT (Canadian, EC and then the least...the GFS).
  20. wdrag
    Raining 0.03/hr here this part of Wantage (see TEWR) and passing 2.2 at 750 PM...much less than that which has occurred along the NYS border northward.
  21. wdrag
    More coming...maybe a stripe of 1/4-1/2" between now and Noon Tuesday parts of CT, LI, NJ. FFG has decreased to generally 1.5-2" in 6 hours se NYS, portions of interior CT and NNJ. So that won't improve- dry out for a while. Additionally at least two models (18z-GFS and 12z EC have spotty 2-3" the Night-Fri) at the nose of the inverted trough. Interesting through Friday for wind/rain/(coastal flood episodes at the higher of the daily high tide cycles in NJ) as well spotty minor river flooding CT/NYS. posted 634P/25
  22. wdrag
    2.12 at this Wantage NJ location at Noon today, which is less than my CoCoRaHs neighbors. I think more coming into Tuesday morning and then again Thursday or more likely Friday NJ/NYC/Li. Not counting on the GFS again late this week regarding its progressive look, as it did repeatedly for this past weekend. Does look a little interesting for the first week of October as well, but that is for another thread post later tonight or tomorrow. Coastal flooding of some sort seems to be on the books every day this week for NJ. Walt
  23. wdrag
    For your review in a CNN headline on-line today September 25, 2023. https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/25/weather/el-nino-winter-us-climate/index.html I'd like to see all long rangers participating on American Weather, post their winter Outlooks (DJF) by 830AM October 19, 2023 when the NWS tends to release their official winter outlook--around that date. Below are excerpts from CNN as posted today: Gives us a chance to monitor strength of El Niño and possible impacts. I'm hoping Don Sutherland and others who normally participate on American Weather and/or other forums, and not necessarily locked into the NYC subforum, would be able to comment on the potential. Myself: I accept long ranging as less confidently reliable than our week one-two forecasts, but this science will gradually improve as more research and capabilities are applied.
  24. wdrag
    CoCoRaHs two day totals as also posted under Ophelia topic. Ignore the 13.31 typos in sw CT. Undoubted some 5+ on the southern and northwest edge of of the NYC subforum... so far.
  25. wdrag
    GEPS the only model on board for this significant additional coastal flood/rain event as GEFS has progressed seaward. EPS still an option but I haven't seen the 06z/25 EPS trend. For now, I keep this potential on the table as a likely event for NJ/LI southward. There is the option for a non event but what I'm seeing right now even in the GFS...daily minor coastal flooding NJ coast for the week, with a chance for a moderate Tuesday afternoon-evening high tide and this without the mid Atlantic low pressure at the end of the week.
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