wdrag

I may not be able to add anything to this until tonight. Everything is more or less the same. Am a little doubtful of 50+ wind but it could happen. The snow seems to be getting closer to NYC and I can see an inch or two elevations of southeast NYS/nw NJ but it melts fairly fast after 8AM Monday. At least we know Nino is producing.

Please follow all current and future NWS watches, Warnings and statements. This thread can serve as the one stop shop for both forum participant expectations and observations. Already as of Friday afternoon December 8, flood related watches have been issued for a wide area centered on the I-95 corridor with wind damage potential expected to lie east of I95, excepting possibly in isolated severe thunderstorms later Sunday. Wet snowfall accumulations could slow travel in the Poconos northeastward Midnight to Noon Monday morning. 19Z/8 December Blend of Models snowfall and and rainfall through Monday has been added to show some of the basis of the watches/concerns. Wind guidance has decreased during the past couple of days as the cold front and associated low pressure system drift across the NYC subforum late Sunday and intensifies a little slower. GEFS 18z/8 wind guidance for 50KT gusts as seen through Polar Wx is less than 40% for the eastern tip of LI. This lower wind expectation may also limit coastal flooding to more of a minor event. No matter, there is time for the models to adjust the expected results. So we have an event...not sure how serious but it will impact travel over our area. Continue monitoring the models, including ensembles and of course NWS products. 820P/8 At 851AM Monday December 11 posted review data. The wind did not work out on 50 knots gusts. The rain and snow did. So far, I've seen about 20 streams or thereabouts from southern New England to Philly to either be or forecast to go into minor flood, and one or 2 may go to moderate. Power outages were mostly NYS and ne PA where wet 31-33F snowfall exceeded 4" and wind gusts may have added to power outages. High Point NJ had 5" at 1500'. Modeling was overall good... especially the elevation dependent clarity on positive added snowfall. 19/

At 8PM I probably will start a thread on the storm based on the watches already posted. Need some more time to digest the ensembles and add my primary concern. Til later, Walt

Based on 00z ensembles and op cycles, not going with a thread. Nice rain storm with wind gusts 55-65 MPH e LI-coastal eastern New England. So power outages-damage drama, if any, restricted to a small part of the geography population for the NYC subforum. Backside CAA w-nw gusts probably NYC subforum widespread 40-45 MPH Monday after sunrise. I see the continuing slower-colder-bolder 06z/8 NAM but not quite buying into it, however It does highlight for me, the potential for as much power outages-tree damage in elevation related 4-8" snowfall swath expanding new from a small segment of ne PA to the Adirondacks Monday morning as compared to e LI-coastal New England power outage gusts. Added the 00z/8 EPS snow depth change. Blend of Models is similar. Not the worst storm we'll see this winter but worthy of monitoring for travel etc.

Not starting a thread for this yet... however, per GFS/EC --am pretty sure scattered wind gusts 10 Mph higher than what I see here for LI-CT (55-60). Primary reason for no thread is that affected population (mainly e LI/CT River eastward) and max gusts look a little southeast of I95. I did see the 18z NAM and EC are slowing a little. This I think is a good sign for more action but will reconfirm (or not) Friday morning 630AM. I see by the time 850 Jet develops to e LI, speed is up to 85 knots. That's a good sign despite neutral lapse rate. This weenie is satisfied with two days of spotty measurable snow in the NYC subforum higher elevations.

You should get a period of light snow or flurries midday. Interesting that one major channel in NYC had no mention of snow this morning in their forecast for today, the others did. Interesting if they have another model that dries it all out? HRRR continues to bring it on into NYC as of the 11z cycle.

Am not starting a 55-65 MPH wind threat thread for Sunday night yet... not a lock despite GFS amping up a bit on 06z/7 cycle..the EPS is down a little bit from yesterday and the Canadian is routine. I don't want to post a thread for only eastern LI verification where I'm pretty sure we'll see a 1-4 hour period of these 55-65 MPH gusts. SVR threat still lingers coastal NJ-LI. Would rather have a good look at this around 730PM tonight inclusive of ensembles etc. Have a day including forenoon-midday flurries with measurable just west of NYC though roads just wet where a little measurable.

!2z version of this 00z/6 post is about identical. Watching the trend overnight, ditto Canadian and GFS for a possible threat start tomorrow..mainly wind damage but rainfall looks 3+ for a small portion of our area if deepening occurs with stationary frontal position for 6 hours late Sunday. Still lack of consensus, especially Canadian.

The moderators can confirm one way or the other. I think it does.

Not impossible, but not probable... NYC CP first 0.1" of the season Thursday morning sometime between 9A-Noon ? Not probable but like the flurries that occurred in NJ overnight, NYC has a pretty good chance of flurries tomorrow morning...but not necessarily measurable.

Am not starting a wind damage thread yet...but EPS ensemble max wind gust mean is increasing. Here is the 00z/6 version for later Sunday-Monday morning. GEFS less. Click for clarity.

Just to perk up the I84 corridor which includes Sussex County NJ northeast to Worcester MA. Third and last of the strong short wave troughs to pass through the northeast USA between tonight and Wednesday should yield a period of light snow or flurries Tuesday night-Wednesday morning for parts of this area. Amounts very light since all ensembles through Dec 12 have less than an inch for us (I84 corridor). Might have a warm frontal flurry Thursday night. Ensembles disagree so not worth taking to the bank. If the Canadian ensembles didnt cyclically continuously offer this, I would not have posted.

First Trace of snow and first freeze occurred NYC-CP. Here is the basic TT/QPF evaluation for Nov excepting missing Nov 1 Pacific Northwest coast. You be the judge on the monthly outlook verification. (not stellar on both Temp and QPF).

Just added the new 30 day outlook by CPC to the p1 post and for comparison...its shifting the axis of max warmth slightly west from 2 weeks ago. Still wet se USA. Looks interesting, imo, for marginal snows eventually sagging down into our NYC subforum.

HPRCC Nov national T/qpf departures will be added here and P1 to compare against CPC Nov outlooks---reality check.

Agreed... actually glad the Conservancy stepped up.No oe wanted to make a big deal about it...but you have to start somewhere. Monitoring next Tue-Wed for first CP measurable. Long ways to go... pretty sharp short waves carving out the trot along the northeast USA coast.

Added CoCoRaHs reports from our area yesterday... not enough traces here cause many reporters probably at work. Flurries yesterday were widespread in total. For fun added the two day Old Forge area where snowmobiling is popular. 13" on the ground there this morning (snow mobile trail groomer report) with probably 15-18" powder having been deposited. Note the 30" CoCoRaHs report near Redfield... I saw an LSR of 33" nearby and finally.. the north side gradient down to Trace. Wow! I kind of agree with many posters... different than last year at this early stage. Seemingly better. Click for clarity.

So, apparently first Trace of snow is out of the way per NYC CP CLI. What's next...Brooklyn will be upbeat. So far the attached 24 hour snow depth change does not have CMCE/GEFS support for NYC but the EPS is a little bullish in comparison. For now, I am not locking into first measurable early next week but keeping an eye on this for 12/4-5.

Please correct me if I'm wrong: NYC-CP and PHL have climate summary for yesterday as Trace snow... but I. must have missed this in the obs... no SB/SE, and I see the CF6 monthly summary that shows the dailies in PHL has no T pcpn and no T snow. Still waiting for NYC. Not sure if controversy is looming on such a minor event but I might have missed something. It's possible le local observers that supplement the snowfall data had an override. Unofficially, in my mind, it would seem both cities had brief Trace flurries but I might have missed something at the ASOS. If you find it, just let us know. Thanks. More on possible first measurable in the Dec thread.

Looks like the HRRR was too heavy, the EC, RAP, RRFS decent for chances of brief measurable snow.

EWR, PVD, LGA, BWI, TTN T. Can't believe PHL didnt. DCA didnt nor BOS. Will be interested in the minor amounts in tomorrow mornings CoCoRaHs reports. Presume everyone has seen the large snowfalls Lee of LONT, Erie. Haven't seen an official JFK flurry report yet...

NYC CP did not report snow in its 1851z past wx.

Newark had a flurry. I see MPING Manhattan a couple of flurry episodes but so far ASOS nil.

3/4 mile in big flake snow shower now in Wantage NJ.

Riding this out. Snowgoose may be right about not enough downslope taken into account e of App by the HRRR, but with the instability change and wind shift 22z-02z, I think there could be one good band of snow showers to wash eased across the metro area late this afternoon or evening. No guarantee. But already you see traces up and down the I95 corridor this morning vicinity DCA-BWI-PHL-NYC-PVD metros, yet to arrive in NYC. We'll see what happens. chances where 20F spread T/TD no snow. occasional flurries Sussex County NJ since 11A. whitening of the dirt/wooden features here. Calling it T here for now. May be my last til tonight.