wdrag

Wantage NJ (this part 3.4" final but I've seen northern Wantage 4.1. My season total 7.5. I'll take it. This is actually a halfway decent start to winter out here.

Wantage NJ 8s High Point about 0.8" snow in 1 hr ending 5A. 3.4" so far though settling snow depth 3.2. 31F. still snowing a bit at 5A. Frankford Township DPW 3.5" at 4A, also Sussex County NJ. GEFS was TERRIBLE for this current event. CMCE and EPS much better. Regarding Fri-Sat of this coming weekend... am pretty sure of a light snowfall and maybe stick for first measurable NYC. Can't quite yet start a thread. I want to get to 96 Hours with same scenario but probabilistic has been showing the potential for several cycles. See attached graphics from 09z this morning. Will go with CMCE and EPS for the coming weekend. I foresee a bit of snow with entire I84 corridor Fri-Saturday followed by possible wind chill advisories either Sat night or Sunday night for much of I84 northward with as previously mentioned, the coldest air of the season so far. WSSI-P graphics attached. Pocket of light blue near NYC is risk of a moderate event. The more extensive graphic is the still low probability for a widespread minor impact event, with the lighter blue hues in MA-NYS higher probability. Lets see what evolves but I am not dismissive. No further comment from me on this til tomorrow morning.

Wantage NJ 8 s of high Point... 2.6" at 4A. 31.1F no wind

SB in Wantage NJ around 730P.. 30.0/23. No obs thread from me since not a big deal for NYC but it will be slippery untreated pavements overnight not too far w-n of of NYC-frozen ground.

uh oh? allow this short wave to dig and sharpen. Still time. lots of changes coming... ICON and Probabilistic WSSI-P also leaning for a minor NYC event event 20-21st. We'll see if it holds or goes away. For now in play as a small possibility. Mostly favors I90 north in NYS-MA.

Noting weeklies recent trend showing cooling east coast through the end of the month and also seeing 5H blocking developing eastern Canada. Greenland is not the only places where blocking is more favorable for us. Added the 09z/ WSSI P for a moderate wintry impact event around 12/20-21. Probably related to yesterdays EC OP, and I'll expect this to fade but not sure it will. It is a very low prob but developing high amplitude trough does offer the small opportunity.

Thanks Matt, never really sure where all the NY Subforum posters are located... I tend to start at I78 north.. but understand south of I78 as you pointed out in the stats. I am concerned the drought monitor is not nearly responsive enough (flashy trends both ways).

Nov 20-Dec 12...CoCoRaHs rainfall looks like general 5-6.5" over the area in 3 weeks... that to me is easing the drought. Also...am pretty sure of a wintry hazard I80 northward in NJ into se NYS early Monday..light snow and ice...minor hazard but prior frozen ground assists with temps still near freezing at 7A Monday the 16th.

I84 don't look too far ahead. Probabilistic hazard for this Sun night... (EC 1-2"). Relatively consistent EC-GGEMlast several runs. NYC- no luck yet. Lets take the rain that comes Mon-Tue.

Following up: I know the 4-5" amounts occurred RI per the attached CoCoRaHs reports (east of CT-LI) and the wind was about 10 knot less than generally modeled for our area with the conservative HRRR and SPEC HREF MIN gust best found in the fire weather section. EC far too far west on big gusts. If interested,here are the CoCoRaHs rainfall reports (click for clarity). Poconos also topped off with about 1/2" snow as far as the 3 CoCoRaHs reports indicate at 8A today.

Stoneybrook NYS Mesonet on LI about to cross 1". (0.99)

Headline basically good: Already as of 4AM spotty 1/2-3/4" amounts NNJ and near NYC. The 4" if it occurs probably CT or LI My only addition is for those who like snow. A short period of 1/2-2" hazardous snow will follow for the Poconos near or just after sundown today-ending at midnight.Maybe a slightest covering of 1/2" snow high terrain (above 1000 feet) of nw NJ/se NYS/nw CT Hills occuring sometime beteen 7PM-midnight. Warm ground and rainfall today may prevent much road accumulation except am pretty sure it will become hazardous in the Poconos...especially Mt Pocono-Mt Cobb(exit 8 on I84) westward and northward between 7PM and midnight.

00z/11 HRRR teasers. (4"+ axis in yellow?) and late afternoon squall-line developing--certainly a wind shift via 21z image.

Hi everyone... this may be OLD news... but mPing--what I consider an important up the minute crowdsourcing ground truth observation platform is out of service for a while longer. A major power failure Saturday night rendered this lower priority program, a delayed return to service Unsure when it returns but I do appreciate NSSL letting us know. Storm looks on track per the mid and day shift NWS office updates and multiple model guidance through 18z/10. Poconos might have a small snow hazard at the end as temps plummet to freezing at sunset Wednesday. Walt

Good Tuesday morning Dec 10 to everyone... I'm hoping patience works for winter snow - NYC metro. In the meantime, a fairly high impact storm is likely with potential for a squall line forming NJ coast into w CT during Wednesday afternoon contributing to downward transfer of some of the 80KT Southwest Jet. OKX already has High Wind Watch for the primary damaging wind threat area. I've added a few starter graphics-click for clarity. Includes base maps of NWS rainfall, wind gusts and also somewhat differing opinions of the Excessive rain potential from the 00z/10 guidance. One personal note of concern: Drought monitor and excessive rainfall potential don't seem to be a coherent match but I haven't checked everything regarding the monitor. 8A/10

I'm in agreement on EPS weeklies etc... grain of salt at best. Our long range models just can't pick up on the extremes that occur week 3 and beyond and they're not outstanding week two. Example of EPS large shifts below for temps the period Dec 9-16. NAEFS closes it out from Dec 2... with a much better solution--OVERALL near normal where the EPS has chilled greatly compared to Dec 3. Wish it were true that our modeling can reveal the abnormal departures beyond week 2... I dont think so.

Good Friday morning everyone, St Nicholas Day for the European background. I've attached the snowfall via CoCoRaHs for what is my second snowstorm of the season (I84 west end 11/21 (10-20" far nw NJ and Poconos) and the ne end 12/5 (a solid 4-8" n CT and interior MA). The big snows to the Lee of the Lakes all supports the unfolding weak La Niña snow north and uncertain against going over averages for I95 (this presuming all LaNina assessments will make it to weak status). Bummer for us so far in NYC. I was contemplating a thread for yesterdays miss in NYC, and again for the coming probable miss this Saturday night. The 12z HRRR and ICON make it close and it's at night but just not enough confidence to get this first measurable snowfall of the season going for all NYC climate sites and BOS itself. Will re-review tonight and Saturday morning. The article snapshot below was dated 11/25...of interest how it showed above normal snowfall interior CT/interior MA, much as it happened yesterday! How A Weak La Niña Could Affect Winter Snowfall Jonathan Erdman

Snowfall analysis through 7AM for this overnight event... yellow starts 6". Sussex County mostly an inch or less and part of the Poconos ditto but some of northern Poconos 4". N Ct interior MA had the most. Legend will help. Click for clarity. Wantage NJ 0.6" Was thinking of a thread yesterday but I wanted to be sure CP measured. Who knows when now?.

Wantage NJ at this elevation of 740' MSL 0.6" with 1/2" in 30 minutes ending about 545AM. 31.8F

A couple of thoughts: As long as the ridge remains in AK, I would think cold shots can reload sewd from Canada east of the Rockies. These will probably be transient until ne Canada blocking can return after mid month (if it returns?). For me, the good news is continued ridge in AK in the ensembled modeling through 360 hours... and while there is broad western Atlc-east coast ridging - that suggests to me qpf events. The other thing I noticed, which Don used in his recent post above.. Unless I'm mistaken ECMWF weeklies update daily... I can be corrected on this. Looking back, regarding extremes... This particular week upcoming... EPS did not have a clue as to extremes until about 7-8 days out. We see ensembled broad based ridges-troughs but not the potential embedded stronger SW troughs-ridges that make the weather that will eventually develop.

Sort of to wrap up the rainfall Nov 20-28... attached, click for clarity. Sort of hard to believe the Drought Monitor didnt improve a bit in its Nov 27 posting. Maybe in the Thu Dec 5 (corrected date) post? I can't quibble with thoughts expressed this page regarding upcoming snow threats for the NYC subforum. I kind of think the LaNina pattern - storm track roughly OH Valley-New England is on course with the two storms between the 21st-28th of November giving us an idea.

Probably noticing a southward shift to the coming snow event for I84 (mixing with or changing to rain at times) on Thanksgiving. Glad the GFS op is finally back in the event boat... can't understand why it dropped out for a couple of days. No thread NYC forum on this one but the distant nw suburbs will see a little snow Thursday morning...probably slippery on untreated surfaces in the elevations of northern Sussex County through the Poconos--- I can see spotty 6" highest northern Poconos if the recent southward trend in the modeling is correct. At least that option has returned. Fortunately power has returned to all but 3000 customers there in ne PA. As for longer range: I know CP did not see any wet snowflakes on ASOS for 11/21-22... (NYC suburbs and parts of LI did), I think odds favor minor accumulations (mainly nighttime) for CP sometime between Nov 30-Dec 14 (at least 0.1"). It could just be from nw flow snow showers (Lake Effect snow streak) or maybe a more general snow at the beginning of a larger scale event. I'll check back tomorrow and if I can remember, I'll post CoCoRaHs 7 day qpf on Friday around 10AM. The drought monitor on Dec 3 (corrected date) should reflect more improvement above whatever is posted tomorrow-Nov 26.

In agreement... I don't like anyone using records less than 50 years old. Records will always be subject to doubt (CP, all the metal sites and how cli sites move around). I used to publish climate records (NWS days) but I stayed away from the short POR or noted. Now that we're seemingly in warmer wetter wilder environment, I'd probably stay away from daily records unless out of season, and move to monthly or seasonal records-perspectives. Just too many words that dont mean much to most listeners (except maybe for you and I). Maybe we can do records with environmental factors considered... just the out of season norm such as warm or cold thicknesses, PW's out of range. In other words...a 565 thickness that used to be rare in October, might be a little more frequent now, permitting heavier rainfall, warmer temps.

Note CoCoRaHs reports incomplete high terrain PA/NYS/nw NJ due to snow related comms itterruptions. Have added general obs to show the hole, plus the power outages maps as of 6A. Also added 3 day qpf maps as a general idea (CoCoRaHs) and the snow fall maps (most out of our NYCsubforum For my own experimental record... whenever a winter event has a NWS Warning near the subforum (in this case I84 corridor) I'll identify it as an event . I've called this for my own tracking SS1. If you want closer look, please click the graphics.

I am not starting a thread, at least not yet...since again the NYC core portion of the subforum may see only rain... but for what its worth... P-WSSI for late Thanksgiving-Friday of next week. I made some comments in the graphic...just click it for clarity.