wdrag

12z/30 NAEFS still pretty dry... bothersome. Walking the dog, eating din and then maybe start a chancy-likely minor northern fringe thread at 8P for 1/6-7 event which still could end up dead on but for now. I think conservative is best policy. I cant buy into an event 1/8-11 atom, though it still can happen but best for me to shave off the back end event potential. Uncertainty.

Yes I did see it and have seen ensembles through 06z/30. Was going to issue this morning but the NAEFS has me bothered overdoing this. 1/2" snow in CP won't do it for the forum interests. My own opinion is that several inches of snow will fall here in that 1/6-10 time frame but LI might be melting a lot of it. Modeling all over the place. Am thinking of just going with 1/6-7 late today and let the second one ride on its own if it's still there (the old Friday 12/27 CPC probabilistic chance of S+). 06Z/30 GEFS 500 looks a little flatter to me, favoring us on the northern fringe instead of dead on with a storm. This is a D7-9 outlook... just a little too soon for me to guide it to more realistic potential and it can still sharpen and track too close. At least we're in the ball game, and seeming to be so for the entire month. In the back of mind is preseason outlook snowy area this winter north of I90 and we're shaky on the edge of unknown but long overdo for at least a 4" event in CP. If we get a couple events this month, they still might add up to the CP monthly average. Certainly so far for me not a KU pattern. Those are rare. Snow in this pattern after Jan 4 would be long lasting -- I'm an inpatient person sometimes but I've got to hold back. I know my mentors would not be pleased that I'd not learned anything after 2005 (use of ensembles). Back at 630P for hopefully a useful thread.

Good morning. Jan 3-early Jan 4 I95 corridor: Strong short wave, unstable lapse rates and possibly some dustings of snow leak out of the mountains and make to the I95 corridor. Any scattered amounts under 1/2". Jan 6-7 no thread yet due to NAEFS being conservative on probs for more than 1 tenth of an inch in 24 hours, less than 40% and less than 50% over 48 hours. Will monitor day runs. I want to see more emphasis northward in the Canadian modeling. I am discarding the idea of a large 5 day window to track. Whatever happens after Jan 7 can have its own storm thread. For now, I want to see Jan 6-7 look a little better for our area before committing a thread.

Good Monday morning all! My thinking on all that is coming: Entire I84 corridor Thursday: Windy with a few gusts around 45 MPH and possibly a few flurries. Isolated power outages expected, mainly NYS and southern New England. Entire I84 corridor Friday afternoon-Saturday morning: Blustery cold with scattered snow showers - dustings to possibly 1", mainly the hills. This also begins what could be at least a 10 day stretch of continuous subfreezing temps in the hills, only barely above freezing in the valleys during the afternoons. Pond ice should be thick enough for safe ice fishing by mid month. Jan 6-11 Especially I-84 corridor - and possibly the I95 corridor from NC northward to Boston: One or two storms should deposit widespread hazardous amounts of snow and ice with travel delays. The first storm around Jan 6-7 should be mainly limited to the I84 corridor south through PA-NJ. A second storm toward Jan 10ish could involve the I95 corridor from NC to MD NYC-BOS. This Jan 6-11 segment is consistent with what we've seen for a few days although targeted areas differ dependent on the modeling. Have a good day monitoring-anticipating. Walt

My feeling, NYC subforum should average an inch or 2 minimum between 1/6 and 1/10... if not from a storm system, then on a brief period of southerly flow WAA ahead of the next fronts with unstable moist south-southwest flow, since it should be pretty cold around these parts by 1/5. There could be parts of LI less than 1" due to warm adjacent waters. Eventually I will probably start a 1/6-10 thread but am waiting it out 12-48 more hours---trying to be a little more sure about the basis (1/6-10). From what I can tell in the 24 hour ensembles, we wont be nil qpf here... For now from my review (may have missed something) , models disagree on qpf. It's difficult to believe mainly nw surface flow 1/2-10. There has to be a front or two (low pressure systems) in there with those short waves. I continue curious about the 12z/29 GEPS-Canadian attempt to bring a period of light snow to the NYC subforum this Saturday 1/4. Right now, all other modeling is nil so probably no go, but I'd like to give this another day or two to be sure Jan 4 is an absolute nil with dry nw flow - scattered non measured flurries around our coastal plain. For whatever this is worth and view with grains of salt, I took a look at the GEFS 00z/28 SD... I84 corridor once 2" gets down (presuming) by 1/10-11, the snow hold for the rest of January with occasional additional accumulations. I'll check back tomorrow morning.

Heading for some 10's as BlueWave noted a few days ago. Already many 8"s on LI since 11/20. if interested click for clarity.

New 12/29 EC ensemble eased a bit on its 12/28 insistence drier than normal here. Below to compare.

Obviously no thread from me tonight regarding potential 1 or 2 snow-ice events 1/6-10. Just need to wait it out till consistent consensus for 2-7". This will calm (I hope )posting of any operational snow amounts beyond 168 hours. I haven't seen 12z/29 NAEFS nor CMCE but enough for me already to postpone any thread for 1/6-10. Sure looks good for making ice on the ponds, and this time plenty for ice fishing once (presuming) it gets thick in mid January. We are lucky to see single model guidance beyond 7 days, but there must be a personal responsibility inherent with posting--- the idea is to be in the eventual ballpark of reality and careful about buying into the excesses. I'm pretty sure we will all see some minor event between 1/6-10 but when and how much... unknowns for me. Adding on at 224P: NAEFS and CMCE pretty steady from the 00z/29 cycle so it says an event No access yet to the probs for 1/4" qpf.

Pretty impressive opportunities Jan 6-10. Snow depth change trend on the 00z/29 cycle allows for 2+ w Li and overall 00z and 06z ensemble cycles continue 2-7" entire subforum Jan 6-10 (10 to1). Realizing this is still 8+ days in advance, this can disintegrate for some of us but probably not all of us. It's difficult to believe that there wont be at least one accumulative snow event for most of the subforum in that Jan 6-10 window. For now I think the CMCE is the outlier throughout its 00z/29 forecast cycle. It's much slower processing the NY eve T-square rain event, dragging its heels out of here around daybreak NY Day; and also with a low prob opportunity for snow along the I95 corridor early Saturday Jan 4. From what I can tell, both those solutions will be incorrect. Presuming those are incorrect, then the CMCE ideas Jan 6-10 are back shelved in favor of some sort of EPS/GEFS blend. So, as others have said, being specific beyond D7 is fraught with error. The CPC D8-14 is not enthusiastic for normal qpf here, and so despite the CPC Jan 4-10 probabilistic chance for heavy snow here, I cant be sure what will evolve for Li. Unless the 12z/29 ensembles fade for the 6th-10th, I'll probably post a thread near 7PM today, for the 6th-10th. That might shift tracking from this Jan thread. Presuming that thread starts, it will also be an OBS thread for either one or the other event (or non event). If we get the first one, then the second event will split off from this thread but we're along long ways from knowing what will happen. It seems difficult to avoid hazardous snow amounts in this subforum save for LI. At least the nearby water SSTs are not above normal. nwNJ: Fingers crossed on 2"+ snow depth returning in this Jan 6-10 period with staying power sometime (possibly for the month).

Toying with a 5 day post Jan 6-10 five window to pick up widespread 2-7" of snow as now 10 to 1 ratio base amount ensembled by the 12z/28 CMCE and EPS, and 18z/28 GEFS. That would focus snowfall opportunity tracking for 1 or 2 events. I've not seen enough similar ensembled qpf-snow predictions to see how this can fail but I'm sure it can, so am holding off-thinking on it for at another day or two to see how the ensembles depart this baseline. Failure clue is the Total Snow Depth Change in that time frame which shows much of LI 1" or less. The NAEFS with the QPF axis well to our southeast, still is with about a 30% chance for 1" qpf in that time frame. That's pretty hefty considering its still 8+ days in advance of Jan 6. The chance for 0.4" qpf in that time frame is about 55-60%. Attached is an example from the 12z/28 version of the 50 member NAEFS for > 10 mm/ qpf in the time Fram 00z/6-00z/11. If this does fail, the ECMWF long range still allows opportunity after the 11th for several weeks though I need to limit enthusiasm (apply skepticism) on outlooks beyond 2 weeks. No new threads from myself for at least a day, possibly not at all if the ensembles slowly lower amounts.,

Thank you for unpinning. I've added a link for mPing past 2 hours showing sleet in nw CT, and still;l a little ice reports NNJ. https://mping.ou.edu/display/. That link should loop the past two hours of reports. Go to layers and change to top. You'll also notice the time in GMT upper right.

The following ASOS METARS nearby NYC reported Trace or slightly more icing overnight...I group (among those I checked) IJD-Willimantic CT POU-Poughkeepsie NY FWN-Sussex NJ CDW-Caldwell NJ

Very few reports for this event. NOT widespread ground truth but am sure in parts of the area, there were slips and falls. Of course ice midnight-6A is not what most winter enthusiasts like to check... especially sleep time. However, the interior advisory for contact icing on stone surfaces was probably a winner...may have saved a few ER visits-broken wrists etc.

I cant reach beyond ensemble modeling so am limited to Jan 11. Maybe Jan 10ish for a decent snowstorm but I dont know. Before then, I'm pretty sure we'll a little snow shower activity Jan 2-3 but no or negligble amounts in the city and then we watch Jan 6-11 time frame but what then?

Good Saturday morning everyone, it's Dec 28. I84 corridor through 930AM: Icy pavers and driveways where it's 32-33F will become ice free around 930AM. Treated roads are just fine and most decks-wires are ice free. Just be a little careful stepping outside early this.morning. Most of the icy conditions were in Warren-Sussex and Orange Counties here near the tristate corner of PA/NYS-NJ with spotty ice in ne PA and interior CT. Sunday-Monday I84 and OF: A mild and occasionally foggy snow melting rain will occur with temps into the 40s and maybe the 50s at times. Later Jan 1-3 I84 corridor mainly hilly terrain: Bands of snow showers will cause brief periods of scattered hazardous travel on untreated roads. Jan 6-11: I-84 corridor and possibly the I95 corridor from NC northward to Boston: One or two storms should deposit widespread hazardous amounts of snow and ice. The first storm around Jan 6-7 should be mainly limited to the I84 corridor northward. A second storm toward Jan 10ish could involve the I95 corridor from NC to MD NYC-BOS?

This thread should be unpinned at 9AM when the OKX advisory ends. Not much icing appeared to happen near the city. Truth is I'm unsure what happened (contact icing) except here in nw NJ with the above temp map.

Wantage NJ 8S of High Point NJ: 545A report. Freezing drizzle on contact with untreated pavers-driveway (ICY), but all other surfaces just wet at 32.4. Salting has been in progress up here since before 4A. Our early morning low has been 32.2. Dewpoint 31.8. 0.08 liquid since midnight. Walt Added a map of NJ Climate reported temps at about 540A... anywhere where 33 or lower, my guess is the untreated paver-driveway is icy (feet from under), but otherwise all other surfaces at 32.2 or higher are just wet. This is purely a contact with previously frozen ground problem... not trees and wires, at least not here.

Not sure if anyone is noticing the past 3 cycles of the GFS and one or 2 12 hr cycles of CMC, backside measurable snow down to I84 on Jan 1 as rapid intensification occurs with the neg tilt shortwave near LI. I see the latest GFS op has heavy snow Catskills on Jan 1. Gonna be a chilly rain in Time Sq NYE.

Attached is the NWS map for the winter weather advisory for icing tonight on untreated surfaces. Most of the icing should occur just northwest of I95 but spotty icing could occur even near NYC and on Long Island dependent on max temps this afternoon, and maybe a 2-3 hour window of radiating chill at sunset before clouds thicken and temps respond upward. Even if that occurs, wet bulbing and frozen ground could permit icing on rain contact with the frozen ground just a few miles away from NYC.. Canadian modeling and the SPC HREF have been leading the way as well as the HRRR. The ECMWF and GFS global models have been largely devoid of ice tonight. I've also added NWS probabilistic chance of .01 freezing rain and .10 (brown 5% chance).

Regarding threads: NWS PHI already is onto the probable ice via an advisory (frozen ground even if air temp at 5' is 33-34). I think the RGEM and WSSI-P are leading the way with support from the usually colder and sometimes too cold SPC HREF. I may start a thread on this tomorrow morning. It appears to me it will radiate a bit between 5P and 7P then temps level off as the lower-mid clouds arrive. It would not be impossible to see ice 5 or 10 Mi w-n of NYC and then spotty on the island with freezing rain-drizzle developing near midnight or whatever you think from the modeling. EC op devoid through the `2z cycle but it's ensemble has a little ice. I'd be careful about any warmup Saturday... only if the drizzle quits. There wont be much wind til Sat night or Sunday. My long shot of 5H undercutting a closed low to LI and backside sleet-snow arriving NY eve is probably a non player but still monitoring. For now, no thread on that. Rainfall: Solid 1.5-3" by NY day... the drought monitor finally ticked down a bit in NNJ...still moderate as of 12/24 Appended rainfall from CoCoRaHs since 11/20 which shows a general 6-9" over our area in 5 weeks.

I saw a couple of comments and I'm replying here. on NOHRSC snowfall... you may find a few discrepancies with your snowfall data but overall I trust the inputs are doing good job of servicing and commenting on model guidance results. I didn't take the time to check but maybe reviewing the output 12 hours later might have found that particular discrepancy was resolved. on WSSI-P... probabilistic slices that lower have probs than elsewhere could be for any number of reasons but the ensemble (60) does its best to integrate the base Blend of Models snowfall and ice data and go from there on WSSI-P. In this case, I did not check back...again, time limitations as I still part rime work and have plenty of daily activity going on, but it might have been land use. I'm leaving this link for you to review...it's 17 pages but gives you some background. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/WSSI-P_user_guide.pdf As you may know, it tends to be too conservative inside of 3-4 days and can abruptly change at D6-7. Nevertheless, I think it's an important addition that needs to be incorporated into approach on winter events.

Added for Saturday morning concerns near and inland from I95. A bit of hazardous ice on all untreated surfaces due to the many days of frozen ground. Note this brings the ice risk pretty close to the big cities Philly-NY-BOS.

We'll see if the EPS trends same latitudinally or trends south the next 24 hours for the NY Day storm. For me, its getting interesting for marginal elevation snow and ice I84 as wet bulbs could cool if the 5H cools enough. fwiw...Canadian and now the EC have ice to near NYC Saturday morning the 28th. No threads on 12/28 or late 123/31, yet but monitoring (even if most folks dont care about ice).

Icing coming to I84 the 28th... it's a start to what may turn out to be an interesting NY eve. WSSI P- low prob minimal impact ice on the 28th (image) led by the RGEM (a typically warmer than USA model). EPS mean SD change has .1 to NYC NY eve. Might be a chilly rain to sleet? LONG shot. I'll watch how far se that second short wave digs across PA/MD (neg tilt) and how much low level marginally cool air is left behind on the 30th-31st.

NOHRSC snow depth this morning.