wdrag
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Everything posted by wdrag
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Not changing the thread title. it's good enough and rode it from start to finish. OBS in here as well. Thanks, Walt
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I think media is underplaying impact and amounts... almost certain to have a band of 3-5" just west of I95 into ABE-SWF axis. NYC might end up with 3". Their first 2 inches should be on the ground by 7A Tuesday. ICE is coming too along the I95 corridor.
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Looking good NYC for 1.5-3" and a little ice from a 12 to possibly 18 hour event. Persistence from mesoscale models suggests a band of 3-5" eastern PA up the I84 corridor including nw NJ but ice temps eastern CT northeastward.
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This post is at the seeming urging of multiple models this weekend offering a period of snow to the NYC subforum. Presuming it occurs, it could begin late Thursday the 18th, or it could linger into early Saturday the 20th. The coldest air of the season so far in NYC, may follow on gusty northwest winds next weekend, the 20th-21st. There doesn't seem to be anything definitive per this Jan 14th issuance, except that a period of snow is expected for at least a portion of NYC subforum on Friday with below normal temps. It's a strong positive tilt trough that approaches from the Great Lakes-Ohio Valley late this coming week. Attached the 12z/14 GEFS 500 MB mean left panel and 500 MB ensemble membership right panel. The NWS Sunday 'day' shift ensemble chance of 1/4" or greater snow-ice is attached as well as the 12z/14 EPS 24 hour positive snow accumulation ensembles ending around midnight Friday night. The 18z/14 GEFS was lighter for the same period so I extended the 24 hour positive snow depth ending time to sunrise Saturday whereas the CMCE was faster with the snow so I ended it 00z/20. Overall this Dec-Jan winter, it is my impression the GEFS tends to be conservative forecasting snow, the CMCE more liberal with more abundant qpf as well. I may have to add rain in the tags for the coasts as we draw closer to the proposed thread day... for now the colder solution was favored but uncertainty exists. Title addition 1/17/24 503AM: Event OBS. Tags: added rain/snow mix.
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Eastern PA power outages wayyyy up. 86,000 meters out in PA now, only 2300 in NJ as of 215PM. I think I saw 51kt at KMDT Combined snow showers and wind risk...useful thread.
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Mid level warming. EC doesn't have it. RGEM does. I think we need to pay attention to RGEM-NAM blend. EC and GFS flagged a significant event when the Tue thread was started then disappeared only to slowly return. The global models (EC-GFS) probably handle closed lows situations better then general WAA overrunning. Someone with knowledge of the models are welcome to check me on this.
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Hi! I'll set up hopefully a carefully worded snow thread for Friday (late Thu-early Sat). Enough modeling has a cdefinite period of snow, or a moderate snow storm, take your pick. I'll check the ensembles this evening. I think we can wait on this a bit longer til this evening, before getting ahead of ourselves especially since ensembles are as of yet not more than 2". I kind of like a reasonable chance of getting snow accum in NYC and/or a 6+ just west of I95 for our I84 Pics/nw Nj slot before getting the thread going. Thanks for your patience. Walt
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ALB 50 kt, LGA 40 KT. EWR 37 KT. Snow squall warnings might have been a little liberal east of the mountains. Really need those bright yellow returns, partly indicating ice and or large flakes. A couple hours of gust 35-45 kt then it calms down a bit near sunset.
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I haven't checked but its verification last year was #2. Also, its' steadfast performance on the previous big inland event and the current one. It's a winter very good snow model. We must disagree. Most folks dont pay attention to the CMC... so they dont really know. It';s how you use these models. I'd say EC and GFS are a little shaky this coming event, Differing input? Go for it.
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1/4 SW+AVP and KMPO recently. KABE nothing. I think radar is going to have show yellows coming at you for decent snowfall.
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Altoona 52 KT, DCA 49 kt last 3 hours, 40 KT AVP. Power outage just w of the subform (west of the Poconos). Power outages NJ at Noon just 259 which is routine and unlikely from anything now.
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Its the GFS. Please incorporate Canadian into the thinking. A period of snow yes... snowstorm too soon to know for me.
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No
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Not threading today, at least not yet. Too much melting much of the NYC subforum I95 east but its going to happen with a burst of snow (rain to snow LI) and winds during or within 2 hours after CFP, gust 45-55 MPH with iso power outages. Will look at this more closely once it gets out of the Poconos at 1130A.
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This because they buy the GFS. I dont think the GFS is worlds best model around here. Canadian is better and it hesitates next Friday. Also, need to talk about today and Tuesday first. Then whatever we get after that is icing on the cake.
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No thread from myself until at least 830AM for short fuse snow squall gust 40-45KT even 11A-2P Pics and NNJ and 1P-3P NYC-CT. Slightly less modeling support than yesterday though I think it will happen. No thread on Friday til at least tomorrow afternoon... a little concerned the ensembles les are favoring I84 for decent snow.
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A couple of NWS probability graphics and my take on this based upon modeling through 06z/14 I 84 corridor inclusive of everything I78 north on Monday night-Tuesday evening. Hazardous 2-5". Periods of snow develop later Monday night ending Tuesday evening. Delays or even a few cancellations expected Tuesday morning rush. A little ice may mix in across NJ. Ground will be frozen as temps remain below freezing from sunset today-at least forenoon Thursday. NYC. Hazardous snow 1-3" and possible ice-rain. Tuesday 1AM-8PM. Steady snow early Tuesday possibly changing to ice or even rain? Treated surfaces Tuesday should be just wet during the daylight hours but travel delays possible for the Tuesday morning rush hour. Max snowfall a little uncertain due to ice/rain and modeling was trending heavier
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Seems to be caving.. and we're not done yet. GFS too. Event hasn't happened so will have to wait til 00z/17 to know for sure. I continue with the RGEM/GGEM/NAM/HRRR blend. If the Canadian drops it... then its over. Some of the modeling is showing 6+". axis should be near I95 or just northwest but we'll see. Definitely higher fluffier powdery snow ratios inland. Staying with 1-3" NYC...but no guarantee 1".
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Am in full agreement, and after Sun early AM review will probably start short fuse NOWCAST OBS thread for this. Adding on a couple of graphics for the wind, including R#. Looks to me like this will maximize in our subforum and for now, the guidance favors power outage producing 2 min whiteouts (Trace -0.3") and damaging wind ~I80 south including LI (50-60 MPH per Bluewave), while longer duration squalls to the north of I80 where roads will be come suddenly slippery with 1/2-2" amounts and wind gusts more or less 40-50 MPH. Tsecs for LGA using the HRRRX
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No Friday the 19th snow thread for NYC subforum til at least tomorrow evening. Want to get through tomorrow's midday squalls first, then be sure about the happenings for Tuesday and set it up from there if its more than 1" snowfall.
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Modeling is constantly improving. Some of the old rules of thumb are not nearly as necessary
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Y HOI e is Canadian. It’s usually slightly warm. Higher qpd less snow. We have time. I
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So the 12z/13 NAM and RGEM have an event. modest, bu west of I95 hazardous, with a band of ice somewhere just west of I95 and decent snowfall ratios and powder I84 corridor. Let's see what other models say. Just have to ride this out a while longer but something is coming Tuesday. Not necessarily more than a light event but looks extensive to me.
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CoCoRaHs data as of 10A today...most obs before 8A. Red the biggest. click for clarity. NNJ rivers escaped a significant weekend rise since the 1+ inch was in the Poconos and east of I95. Still folks without power nw NJ and eastern NYS among the states.
