wdrag
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Everything posted by wdrag
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Wow... 8.5"!! beautiful Vernon high terrain. me---this southern part of Wantage at about 740' MSL - 215AM 0.7", less slimy slush on untreated pavement. snowing steadily 33F. Last winter we didn't have our first 1/2" till the big 1 foot snow storm of Jan 6-7, 2024.
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Morris County NJ.. several reports of snow or snow mixed w rain.
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Mt Pocono 1N report of 1.3" on the ground at 7P per PHI FB and their posted storm report.
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Saw a PHI FB report from near 1500' vicinity High Point NJ..snowing there.
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Already at 530PM 1" of wet snow on the ground... and a little less on driveway at Mt Cobb, Exit 8 on I84. about 2000' elevation (Jefferson Township PA). Models are too slow in the higher elevations for snow depth CHANGE, which is what I use as a base. HRRR 3K NAM look good but am a little cautious because 12z EC nwas ot as robust as I'd like to see.---too much mixed snow sleet rain overnight in nw NJ. Temp here in Wantage at 537PM down to 37.4.
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El Patron. Good Mexican food. They should accumulate
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Been modeled by many models for two days. We’ll see what happens. Elevations good for sccum, sleet could rob 1-3” of potential snow accumulation
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Sleet rain snow mix over to accumulative snow overnight. Haven’t seen 12Z ec positive snow depth change. Have to think slippery and plow able even down to 800’. Heading home from work now. Should be getting slippery in Poconos now above 1800 feet. Nice backside band developing in radar e central pa western nj. Should be our sleet snow changer thus evening
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about .76 here in this part of Wanrage at 6A. 41.5F r/s mix in parts of e PA high terrain, Poconos west. We should in nw NJ high terrain start accumulating around 7-8P, and 1-3" high terrain by midnight... IF NOT, then my faith in modeling r/s boundaries is degraded. 06Z EC and 09z HRRR continue. am still looking for 1" Newton and 4-6" by sunrise Friday Highland Lakes/HP high terrain stretches n SC. Colder air seeping in... has to be some slippery untreated roads tonight. Will be more difficult to accum on roads tomorrow at 32F but grass/trees should add more at time of heavier rates.
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Last 3 hours max wind gusts with the lines of showers and thunderstorms moving east through NYS/PA/VA. KDKK: Dunkirk, Chautauqua County, NY, United States [55kt, 28m/s] KPIT: Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh Intl Arpt, PA, United States [50kt, 26m/s] KROA: Roanoke, Roanoke Regional Airport, VA, United States [51kt, 26m/s]
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I dont have much urge to start a thread for heavy rains most of our NYC subforum, then ends as a rain/drzl/barely noticeable wet snow mix. Could be more gusty than anticipated Th-Fri and I see some modeling is spotty 50-60 MPH just of LI to Cape May-Delmarva. Isolated 3-4" melted qpf tristate corner of pa/nys/nj. Still concerned about upper low redeveloping s of LI which might mean a little more action than modeled for Fri night. 12z/20 HREF looks a little cold. A n-s axis just east of AVP might be heavy damage. 12z/20 attached WSSI-P is the probability, in this case for MAJOR damage. This n/s axis has been cyclically repeating as the area to monitor for big wet snowfall and imo, heavy damage-power outages. Gusts to 30-35 MPH expected parts of that areas as well. Caution: It's where I monitor but the prob for major is below 40%. WSSI-P is something new for me this year so can't assign confidence regarding its value added. and now with the attachment WSSI-P.
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Holding off tiI.I get back home at 5PM and reevaluate... that will give modeling time to calm down. Power imo is a big problem ton consider ne PA/maybe nw NJ. No action for me... most of NYC forum a rain storm gusty winds 35-45 MPH (iso G 50) with tail end wet snow mix.
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The heavy qpf and wet snow is primarily Pocs and Cats, into nw NJ. Not really the bulk of the NYC metro. That's why I've held off. So---I dont want to over focus NYC metro on what will be mainly a rain event. An extreme storm was occurring overnight near Washington State. I tend to find extremes occur close to each other. Remember the Oxford Flood of Aug 18, then the 11 week drought Sept-now, and now multi modeling is offering spot 4" 48 hr qpf nw NJ/Pocs/Cats Tri state corner. From one extreme to another.
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Do we want a thread for this storm. It will snow in NYC but probably no accumulation or less than 1/2" Friday night. This storm is focusing quite a damaging punch for the Poconos/Catskills and extreme nw NJ where spotty 4" rains are possible and certainly think 2" can occur NYC by 7AM Saturday. Your call.
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Anyway, maybe my first time noticing but Pivotal now has 6 hr ECMWF op forecasts and all parameters out to 360 hours since the 12z cycle yesterday. (12z/12). Maybe I'm late to notice.
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Looking interesting for TC Cuba-Fl northeastward about the 20th... 00z/11 GEFS solid D9 signal.... GEPS a little bit, and EPS again lagging.
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Not convinced EPS will be correct... think we in the states would like a recurve per the preponderance of track guidance... even if it shears... we can use the rain VA northward. Also, intensity guidance seems to hang up above 35 kt. Uncertainty of course, but I am monitoring future course of the decaying Rafael for the Gulf coast. At least GEFS/GFS was correct Oct 20-24 for TC development, advancing the idea of a storm down there, though 3 days too fast on the process and may have been wrong on a US mainland landfall though am not convinced we're done.
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Caribbean storm coming into better focus and may have an impact here (rain or squally rain?) around Nov 11-12? A large percentage of autumn rain here I think tropical related. Looks like we'll get something here with very minor tropical RH contribution Sunday night.
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Checking back I saw isolated Trace nw NJ, s CT for this supposed 0% event... which verifies 0 percent officially but I Think a 5 or 10% would have been a better indicator. of the daily risk changes. I just saw a forecast on NY TV for 0% chance of rain through Friday? Decision making must have omitted the RGEM/NAM. It's murky light rain/drizzle tomorrow night or Tuesday morning, but to say 0%?Chec
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SW Caribbean is 80% prob now in 7 day, 40% in 2. N central Atlc is 50% per 8PM TWO.
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Thank you for posting your numbers. We'll check in on finals this April 2025. Hopefully there is a bit of winter. 11/1/24 537A EDT.
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2PM TWO 10/31/24
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Less than 2 days to offer your amount. Then we can look back in April and see how we did.
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A late season TC-Hurr may still yet form in the sw Caribbean, but it's not going to my posted thinking of at least a week ago, occurring prior to Election Day. MY wrong interpretation and unless something changes in. hurry, my buy in to the GEFS mid range was probably wrong for initial TC development near Halloween, as others indicated herein. Patience I'm sure but whatever it is, seems like if any se USA impact, it would be later than Nov 5, NJ-PA: 00z/29 EPS/GEFS 5H pattern is quite different toward Nov 9. We need rain up here in NJ/e PA... for now, doesn't loo like any TC related rain before the 8th. A good portion of our autumn rain up here is TC related. Not a good situation for NJ/e PA. Will keep monitoring but my confidence has dimmed a bit.
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00z/24 GEPS-EPS lackluster and I'm not sure if that will hold back NHC issuance of a TWO today somewhere in the Caribbean shores between Panama and Nicaragua but a 0% 2 day, 20 or 30% D7 seems warranted to me, especially considering repeated GFS op suggestion of a big storm down there. Once a TWO issues (only my presumption based on repeated GEFS suggestion), I'm out of this Trop Forum and will briefly revisit near Nov 7 or sooner, after all is said and done, whatever the outcome. All I ask is there any evidence that EPS is a better predictor D7 than the GEFS? Posters on here have all the options very well covered the past two pages, and always all the storm invests/tracking/potentials.
