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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
    Prep it and have gas on safe standby to repower if you need it ,and of course, have it ventilated. No promises on specific locations but this seems to be a useful generator storm
  2. wdrag
    Just want to pass this on: There is no doubt in my mind about moderate to major impact for virtually all our area Monday, with power outages and moderate to major flooding of some streams lingering into Wednesday. 90-100 knots of 850MB wind over NYC-LI se New England for 3-6 hours tomorrow morning has to cause a fair amount of power outages (80 knots at 850MB in WAA is my trigger). Additionally, if your sump needs electric, better think about safe options. Safely: your gutters that might be leaf clogged, might be good to clear the dgutters-downspout ingest area now... again you are your own best safety. Can't risk a falling off a ladder or roof. The Passaic and Ct River are ensemble based (NAEFS and GEFS) qpf forecast to go into moderate or major flood stage Tue-Wed at couple of locations and many streams seem destined to go at least minor, providing the reality of 3" is realized. That is going to mean problems for those of you near these, detours etc. Again: this only occurs if 3+" falls in the basin. I continue to think spotty 5" in 18 hours by Noonish tomorrow. Follow hydro briefings from the various NWS offices and post here if you wish. My main concern is the SPC HREF has been lagging on this 3+" amount... I'd like to see this 12z run beef up to at least 3" basin. Now is the time to getable preparations done, before nightfall and before rain-drizzle becomes widespread with the damage developing toward dawn Monday. I'll be up monitoring wind reports early tomorrow and as best I can rainfall reports. Finally: the snow for Tuesday... in and out on the various models but don't count it out and early in the day. 12z/17 NAM and HRRR still have it. The 00z EC did, but lost it at 06z. Interim, especially 18z GFS cycle are not recently deemed as reliable compared to other cycles.
  3. wdrag
    Good Sunday morning everyone, It is Dec 17. This thread will also serve as observations for all the nasty weather ahead. My expectations below...probably no different than yours. Follow all NWS warnings-advisories-statements. Pockets of 5" across interior NJ/e NYS/w CT...least rain probably e LI. That will probably cause quite a few small streams to rise into minor flood Monday. Rain quits Monday afternoon. Coastal tidal flooding will be a problem at high tide Monday morning-midday. Squall gusts 50+ MPH for LI/CT/maybe coastal NJ to near Boston Monday morning along with many power outages out there-be prepared for no power from near Atlantic City to near New York City and near Hartford out to the eastern tip of Long Island and Cape Cod. In some cases---power may be out for more than a day... that is still an unknown as power outage prediction is not always accurate-too many variables involved. High wind warnings are already in effect for coastal southern New England. Tuesday morning I84 corridor northward: It turns much cooler with a 3-9 hour period of snow or mixed rain snow in the morning-early afternoon. Untreated pavements above 1000 feet should become slippery by sunrise Tuesday for only Poconos/ Sussex County NJ and Orange County NY. Valleys little or no pavement accumulation otherwise am expecting 1/2" to at most 3" of wet snow much of the I84 unpaved hilly terrain (grass). It is possible most of the high terrain accumulation in CT/MA occurs late Tuesday afternoon-evening. Many NJ/CT/LI coastal locations should see a short period of mixed snow rain but expect it will be too warm for pavement accums. Am expecting delays and cancellations, especially near the coasts Monday morning. Follow all NWS warnings and statements.
  4. wdrag
    Well, at least the front storm will occur, albeit further west than anticipated in the Wednesday morning (13th) thread issuance. Title update to hopefully more accurately reflect the expected reality. Added damaging wind gusts-squalls to the tags and general timing/wind gust restrictions. Still lots to be determined but for those who want nothing burger <3" of rain...you probably will get that if you live LI. I think best chance of 3-5" 24 hour rainfall is along and west of the eventual path of the storm probably just inland a few miles from I95. Squalls however may change your mind about value of lead time, with power outage potential anywhere near and east of NYC including CT. Of interest to me is the max gust potential in the 4A-10A Monday time frame with squalls, but the backside westerly on eastern LI maybe just as powerful in the early afternoon. Power outages always very hard to predict, predicated on sodden ground and/or wind gusts but I suspect a fair amount of those LI/CT. Should be a bit of a difficult commute. If you have to work, recommend leave early and also plan for some airline delays Monday. Snow mixed a bit with the cold frontal rain showers Tuesday morning, only sticks I84 corridor high terrain where 0.1-1" expected. Please note late Wed-Friday (20-22) morning for LI/CT eastward... There will be another ocean storm developing Wed-Thu that could graze LI/CT with a little snow-rain. Models are temporarily going back to that, but timing is beyond the fairly powerful event coming up Monday morning and not the primary reason for this thread. Thanks for your patience with this. 618 AM/16
  5. wdrag
    After reviewing guidance tomorrow morning, around 8A, I'll probably adjust one tag adding damaging wind. Sort of waiting on NWS commitment.
  6. wdrag
    BOM is LI/CT only with 60 MPH gusts 12z Monday. Will attempt a decent consensus update tomorrow morning 8AM, but I think you all are on top of it with your posts. Regarding snow. Depends if the CLOSED LOW at 5H can' maintain south of I80 Tuesday..if so, then inverted backwards trough from near ACK sfc low, FGEN and teep moist unstable lapse rate will produce some interesting grass accum. Too early about 5H. Odds are it will open to our north... but... jury still out.
  7. wdrag
    Record for CP on Monday the 18th. 63-1984. Did not check any others but think near record warmth possible midday before chilling in the evening,
  8. wdrag
    There will be substantial impacts in parts of our area. Wet ground...gusts 40-50 trees slop over. Power outages again, this time I think more in NJ/CT/MA than back ion NYS/ne PA. Flooding rainfall for parts of the area. So unless the track slides west through PA, there will be plenty to observe Sunday-Monday. Not sure if anyone saw the EC 90 hours 525 5H low in Ohio. Swift changes ahead for Tuesday morning. In my mind,no doubt an active 3 days (Sun night-Tuesday).
  9. wdrag
    Back to this two event system: Modeling seen through 06z/15. Looks like a narrow stripe of 4.5", 24 hour rainfall, along just west of the eventual track of the near STS (wherever that track ends up) mentioned in the post above..with amounts maybe near 1" in 50 MPH squalls eastern LI to 1.5-3" remainder of the NYC subforum. Ensembles (GEFS/NAEFS) seem to have as many streams into minor flood as last Sunday-Monday and a couple moderate (actual rain will determine). Monday morning Impact could be larger due than last week, since it dumps in a shorter time frame, IFFFF the rainfall mentioned above occurs Track looks fairly solid within 60 miles either side of NJ/Hud Valley. For now max rainfall axis somewhere near I95 VA-NJ, to adjust in future modeling. TT briefly near 50 Monday morning so isolated thunder possible. This is a negative tilt shortwave rolling newd from GMEX on this one. Note sure of records for Monday but 60s NYC? Regarding the second event: I am pretty sure I84 corridor will see some wet snow Tuesday morning-midday, and a rain-wet snow mix to the coast (no stick on coastal pavement). It's far into the future but when we toss all this Monday morning RH/warmth back into the Appalachians and then sharpen the 5h trough quite noticeably into PA by Tuesday morning, I have to think there will be a band of FGEN with deep unstable moist soundings to 600 MB crossing the region Tuesday, offering a 3-9 hour period of generated precip. Amounts probably under 1/3rd inch. Not impossible to see spotty 2-5" snow fall Poconos/Catskills/Adirondacks/Berks/Litchfield Hills with pavement treatments needed above 1000 feet. Even nw NJ hills to MA Worcester Hills could see a slight grass accumulation. Just too early to be confident except I am expecting a little snow in those areas-accums debatable and best to think less than 1" for now. Just too much leftover moisture in my opinion to not are wring it out as it turns colder. If the 5H trough doesn't sharpen (neutral 5H tilt as cyclically modeled) by the EPS and GEFS, then this second event won't happen. So for now, one event at a time. This first one I think will result in flood hazards (inland) and coastal flood (partly because of e-se inflow ahead of the trough, and partly because of lowered pressure (990 MB)... both probably minor but not impossible for spotty moderate. Timing and inflow determined.
  10. wdrag
    Storm #1: added the 07z/14 NWS Blend of Models through 7PM Monday... a decent start at this long lead time.
  11. wdrag
    Well, I sure hope the EPS change to stronger and slower this 00z/14 c cycle is correct. If so, we're in business Tue-Wed-Thu. Before that... Monday morning should be a little rough with wind gust 40, coastal flooding (minor?), a significant 6-12 hour dump if 1-3" which I think would produce some flooding, certainly impact early morning travel.
  12. wdrag
    My take based on all primary models through 00z-06z/14: Sunday afternoon-next Thursday I84-I95 corridors (17th-21st), a large storm will produce heavy rains NJ-se NYS-LI-CT-MA by Monday morning (roughly 1-3"), then abate and temporarily be very mild Monday. Then the precip "possibly" redevelops Tuesday or Wednesday as a period of mixed ice or wet snow from NJ-PA northward to NYC-Boston. Snow accumulations will be elevation dependent (as usual)... for now, the ensemble snow accumulations (snow depth change) are small... generally under an inch in our area. Tue-Wed is fraught with uncertainty... does precip occur or not? If it does, then I have high confidence it would be wintry...just not sure if precip redevelops. Ensembles are spreading out the wintry stuff a little further south. EPS is much sharper with the trough here in NJ next Tuesday... that will be critical. If it's mushed out with wsw 5H flow instead of ssw flow, then part two is probably offshore. Just too uncertain for me to express confidence on part two. Also, am aware that part one Sunday night-Monday won't be a nor'easter but instead probably an inside runner. Basis for wintry is scrolling through "24 hours snow depth change" on CMCE, EPS, GEFS. Will check back Friday to see how this unfolds. (as some say, am a Modelologist- it isn't like it was 30-35 years ago when two model runs/day and couple models to monitor-dig into--- now it's speeding through many general model ideas, counting on model intelligence to lead me-us down the right path)
  13. wdrag
    Just have to ride out all the model variations the next couple days. I think we'll settle in on a big Monday event, secondary Tuesday, and then ebyond that.... ?? I don't think the models are near consensus yet on how Noon Sunday-Tuesday plays though it looks very wet at times. I may not comment again til Friday afternoon. This is a good week to continue outdoor cleanup.
  14. wdrag
    Another significant weather event is headed our way, about 7-8 days after the last. By the time the first day of winter officially starts, we may see a little snow or ice for the interior and substantial rainfall that could prompt flood and coastal flood statements for our area. Sunday-Thursday "potential pair" of wet events that could eventually change to ice or wet snow, especially I84 elevations Tuesday-Wednesday. Substantial rainfall is outlooked... probably at least an inch for virtually the entire NYC subforum and possibly """isolated 6"""" worst case. Not saying 6" will occur but it's in some of the advance modeling and it could end up over the fish. Persistent northeast winds for possibly up to 4-5 days could be a coastal flood problem. A disturbance in the southwest USA today-Wednesday 12/13 migrates east, ingesting short waves from the northern stream and a juicy one out of the Gulf of Mexico. Then it apparently plods northeast along the east coast. How close the upper low comes up here before fading east is with the traditional uncertainty and TBD, but it will be interesting to monitor. There could be a significant banding signal well to the northwest of the upper low and if that upper low holds together longer and eventually makes it up to the south of LI by the start of winter., it will have produced quite bit of impact here. That is still very uncertain and not a lock. Modeling seen through 06z/13: EC-EPS is basically one and done by late Tuesday, but it even flags interior snowfall, the GEFS is most robust for wintry weather and the CMCE, a slightly warmer model, also has some wintry stuff a little further north of I84. All ensembles agree on accumulations Adirondacks. This is another El Niño event, that is particularly juicy (see FL coast pressure intensity), and has a noticeable RRQ of the upper jet near the Canadian Maritimes (southern-northern stream merge) to assist upward motion. Will there be two events next week? or just one centered on Monday? Title update 6AM Saturday from the original that follows: added Damaging gusts LI/CT. A single or pair of nor'easters Noon Sun Dec 17, 2023 - Thu evening Dec 21. Potential: flooding rain I95 corridor, persistent gusty ne wind driven tidal flooding episodes next week, change to ice or snow interior elevations by Tue morning.
  15. wdrag
    Good Wednesday morning... I'll probably start a thread around 9AM for the Sunday-Thursday "potential pair" of wet events that could eventually change to ice or wet snow to I84 Tuesday-Wednesday. Substantial rainfall is outlooked... probably at least an inch for virtually the entire NYC subforum and possibly isolated 6" worst case. Persistent northeast winds for possibly up to 4-5 days could be a coastal flood problem, but far too early to be sure.
  16. wdrag
    Waiting til at least tomorrow morning before a thread start... my trying to be conservative at distant time with uncertainty on UA low track evolution, possibly a two part storm over 4 days, and how much of the area might get some snow?
  17. wdrag
    Prepping for a likely (70% chance in my mind) topic issuing either this evening or Wednesday for the period late Sunday the 17th through Wednesday morning the 20th. Looks to me like a sizable nor-easter with marginally cold enough air (850 MB and surface temp ensembles) nearby to the north and northwest for snow potential at least down to the i84 corridor inclusive of nw NJ and maybe trickling down to the CT coast at the storms end. But the main story probably is rainfall potential... I've added the EPS probability of 1" or greater rain in 24 hours centered Monday the 18th. This event could put out isolated 4" rainfall for some part of our area. Wind gusts will be a concern but as most have noted, model guidance tends to be a touch high... still I would not rule out a wind hazard for the coast. For initiating this topic... prefer to give the ensembles at least another 12 - 24 hours to agree a little more and for the EPS to be consistent (GEFS-CMCE not quite as far west and that is my concern). No matter this southern system will be a big wet one for at least Texas, and probably the Gulf Coast, and in my opinion up the southeast coast to our area. Ensembles probably not holding on to the upper low long enough as we go into the middle of next week. This won't be a big deal if qpf remains at or below 1" and little or no snow... but potential exists for something significantly larger as a nor'easter. Compared to this past storm... way too early for me to express confidence one way or the other. Depends on eventual track of the upper low so I have to wait... it's about potential and I think this event will have plenty of interest up here in a few days. Can it get up here as per the EPS or does it get deflected out to sea?
  18. wdrag
    I continue interested in a decent widespread weather event 17th-21st... if it all plays right, enough cold air to the north as short waves seem to be digging a little more across the northeast USA than modeled a few days ago (mid week and early this weekend) and that could leave the nw fringes interesting, as a large Southeast USA coastal storm heads northeast. Long long ways to go... We'll have to see if the GEFS loses its very nice late weekend-early next week 5H flow pattern.
  19. wdrag
    Maybe so... for now, jury out on specific rain impact on Bronx building collapse all over NY media this evening. Very good lead time by NWS on flood watches... I know it wasn't major river impact but nevertheless... a sizable rainfall event.
  20. wdrag
    Finding out ore as we go. 2.5" 900' in Stillwater NJ, High Point was 5" at 1500. eastern Sussex County high terrain did not do as well as the western part of our Sussex County. Probably related to FGEN position as checked through the HREF.
  21. wdrag
    Two CoCoRaHs sampler rainfall maps and one snowfall for the NYC subforum. Please click for clarity. The only element that didn't pan out was the wind... also. note that there are power outages affecting areas with seemingly combined 4+" snowfall and decent wind gusts shaking the wet snow off the branches (and probably breaking them). It looks to me like everything ab over 1000 feet picked up an inch or more of snow with the break point on Trace snow mush covering deck, maybe somewhere between 500 and 800 feet MSL.
  22. wdrag
    Possibly worthwhile to monitor Sunday(17th)-Thursday (21st) of next week. Something looks to be coming and it may again be marginally cold enough... embedded within a general warmer than normal period. I'll add a sampler of snow and rain totals on the Dec 10-11 thread.
  23. wdrag
    No changes to add. Enjoy the storm. Suggest for observations add only rainfall above 2", wind gusts 45 MPH or higher, power outages, downed tree limbs, unusual flooding, and any snow-sleet accumulations A good multi faceted storm and travel will be impacted. Brunt still 5P-5A. I may not be posting between 945A-7P.
  24. wdrag
    Looking at just about everything I can...I would now follow the HRRR, RGEM, 12KM NAM closely, realizing the RGEM and HRRR can run a degree or two warm, affecting ptype and snowdepth. Also HRRR wind gusts can be 5 MPH too strong. Right now they are less than the EC which has 50-60 E LI on the 18z/9 cycle. I'd keep the door open for grass snow acc near I95 including metro NYC. How much on pavement and snow boards is questionable. Not saying this will happen but I think it likely there is at least a mix of sleet-snow for an hour or two 8A-Noon Monday. Will check back at 645A Sunday. Have a good night.
  25. wdrag
    I may not be able to add anything to this until tonight. Everything is more or less the same. Am a little doubtful of 50+ wind but it could happen. The snow seems to be getting closer to NYC and I can see an inch or two elevations of southeast NYS/nw NJ but it melts fairly fast after 8AM Monday. At least we know Nino is producing.
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