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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    fwiw... 4PM NWS collaborated snow forecasting experimental impact. For me, looks half an inch or so conservative I95 where I think an inch will fall but melt quite bit on initial contact 2-4PM. AFTER the initial thump goes by around 9P, it warms aloft for a few hours. Matter of temp during snow. If 33 CP Will get some whitening on the snow board. NBM and most models pretty conservative so that's the prevailing forecast. None of em are easy.
  2. wdrag
    fwiw.... T sections for NYC (LGA) when large dendritic growth shortly after onset arrives NYC on the GFS and 3K NAM. Temp lowest 25 MB in question and if its snowing...wont be more than 33-34 at 7PM Sat evening. 00z/7 CP ob may have some snow acc? Anyway, this is another way to look at a specific location vertical profile. On sample. Can do moisture, R#, wind profiles etc.
  3. wdrag
    agreed... RGEM NAM HRRR cyclic repeatable trends may be helpful. 06z/5 HRDPS is too heavy but its colder.
  4. wdrag
    Elizabeth warehouse fire right now ... on TEWR radar...particulate matter blowoff. 1/5/24 628AM post
  5. wdrag
    NWS 4AM snowfall forecast and resultant impact expectations if and when many of these forecasts verify Saturday night-Sunday. As you know I';ve become a fan of the base amount forecast to limit expectations, worst case double
  6. wdrag
    reality-- lets see what happens. I'm still with it as attempted to predict via these posts last eve.
  7. wdrag
    Yes... this combo event - I can't rank it historically but no doubt the runoff next Wednesday should have rocket rises of small streams with slower rises of large rivers I95 corridor NJ/PA. My concern if sump pump and power outages..then what. Detours and I think some evacuations in vulnerable flood zones may be necessary but we need to see how this plays closer to Tuesday. All I know, preparations as best as possible next few days which means cleaning storm drains today or Monday-Tues morning and just making it easier to mitigate what is coming in a 9 hour dump of 2-3" of rain, compounded in NJ by snowmelt.
  8. wdrag
    It will almost definitely start as snow or r/s mix, but pavement probably won't accumulate... and over to all rain by 11PM but back to r/s mix Sunday morning. Again... no one expected big snow I95 east but take what we can get. Am sure lots of reports will be coming in around 4-5PM Sat.
  9. wdrag
    am done for the night... flushing it for now.
  10. wdrag
    the 18z NAM looked off... something not right about it. It's companion 3KM looked better. Your stats seem to me to indicate 1" categorical NYC (not 100%). I have great respect for Cliff Mass (NBM) as I do for Lance. In the case of of the NBM, its at 0.6" as I interpret. That is splitting hairs. 1 hr dump at 33F and measuring at 05z could make it 1.5. The idea though... NYC from your stats should at least see a r/s mix for a while at the start and I think the bulk of Sunday, if not all snow at the start and end. and some sort of whitening of the CP ground. Now that we're at 48 hours away... from 2"- 8PM in Wantage NJ... I'm thankful that so far, that which makes forecasters queazy because of a sudden warm wet, or goodbye out to sea "probably" won't be happening.
  11. wdrag
    I'll be keeping this thread active through about 12z Tuesday, with obs for whatever happens this first storm embedded. At about 12z Tuesday, I'll get the OBS thread specific to the 9th-10th started as it is going probably be many pages (flooding rain, damaging wind, maybe front end snow west of I950. This storm as you're probably aware has potential for 2-3" in 12 hours (rain) and melting whatever water equivalent in NJ (mainly I80 south) is going to result in very rapid rises of rivers on the 10th. Looks to me like considerable river flooding of varying magnitude, awaiting reality. Passaic Pine Brook, IF 3" occurs total from these two storms, it goes to MDT flood on the 10th. Some our BOM guidance has 3.5-4" for basins. Not sure if it will be that much but if your sump pump dont work because of power outages... Worthy to monitor. Not Sandy etc but pretty significant.
  12. wdrag
    That in my opinion is correct. Canadian has to be on board for synoptic scale snow.
  13. wdrag
    Lets look at the 00z-06z/5 NAM thermal profiles for NYC. My guess is there will be steady snow much of Sunday NYC-northern Li but melt on pavement and have difficulty accumulating on grass during midday bit its all sub the about temps 32-34 and precip rate. For now I think odds are under 3" CP-northern LI and mostly likely 1/2-2" but I've been wrong before. I dont know if anyone has noticed the cyclic steadiness of EC and GGEM. Now I'm switching down to the HRRR, NAM RGEM.
  14. wdrag
    Watch CMC trends... it tends to run warmer than NAM. HRRR ag 48 hours tends to run warm and then as we trend close toT0 it should cool. Those two models are my overall operational experiences. Stats are helpful...they temper enthusiasm but sample size can also have new contributions that are not in the more plentiful solutions. NBM has been steady through all the recent dailies. Even 18z EC has only 33F NYC Sat night... good VV and timing with the midnight ob might yield an inch Manhattan. Think its going to be interesting NYC and northern LI. Nothing off the table yet...in my mind. I want to see if the 00z/5 12KM can settle on something more reasonable than its 18z predecessor. I'll be sleeping when it comes in.
  15. wdrag
    western USA looks like it wants to seep east. Seems like we have an interesting two months in progress.
  16. wdrag
    No more nail biting there, I don't think. Northern LI-NYC have a hard time with my expectation T-2" due to above freezing temps. You still have hope at the onset 5-9P Sat and Sunday departure 9A-3P. Just have to be realistic. Here's the Blend of models from 2AM today.
  17. wdrag
    18z EPS is within a tenth of an inch on its new qpf for the Sat night -Sunday morning snow storm. I've added an 18z EPS graphic 10 to 1 ratio chance of 4+. While I do not like using 10 to 1 ratio as a first guess... in the all snow region 10 to 1-Kuchera should work but always keeping in mind the base Positive snow depth change. I'll keep pounding this since it's the easiest way to reduce disappointment. For NYC... EPS Positive snow depth change is 2" now...so within there 1-4 bracket. We're still about 72 hour from the start... so I can't say its a lock yet but hope exists for northern and Western LI to break the less than 2" curse.
  18. wdrag
    That's because many are using 10 to 1. That doesn't work well with melting processes. Everyone in the longer range should start with a base of POSITIVE snow depth change. Then you can look at top end of the range with the 10 to 1, if no sleet/rain. Sleet is converted the same way as snow in the 10 to 1 so it biases amounts high along the warmer edge of the snowfall forecast. There will be banding and we can look at that more closely Friday, with greater confidence. I think we'll see clusters of power outages from wet snow and gusty northeast winds 30-40 MPH early Sunday somewhere near I78 if the snowfall there is 4" or more and falling at temps of 32-33F. Otherwise, I kind of think the original plan thread plan still looks reasonable. Impacts will be much more substantial 9th-11th with I think widespread river-small stream flooding up and down the east coast along the I95 corridor from NNJ southward to Philly and down to NC. Some rivers may go into the low end of the major flood category, provided two storm rainfalls exceed 3". This and wind damage potential looks pretty significant across the eastern third of the country for 9th-10th, plus of course 1/2-3" wet snow I95 west to start that second storm. Temps into the 50s on Wednesday the 10th I84 southward will add the snowmelt contribution up here in NJ southeast PA.
  19. wdrag
    You're welcome to chatter here about he 10th, but for sure after the 7th all that belongs in the current two storm thread. I have no plans to start a snow thread for the 13th-15th, until the 10th when we are solely posting damage combo 3" water equivalent snowmelt-rainfall/wind reports in the obs thread for the 9th-10th, that one I'll start the morning of the 9th. For now I'm now seldom commenting on modeling for both these next two storms in the primary 6-7 9-10 thread.
  20. wdrag
    Hi! Haven read anything since last eve... I'm sure there was consternation with the 00z/06z GEFS-GFS. Fortunately the EPS is back up as is the CMCE. No change to my own overall thinking since the thread inception, NYC 1-4" to be further adjusted if needed. Just caught Don's post about rations. Good post. Won't be back to post til sometime this eve. Was on call First Aid driver overnight with two calls. Enjoy as you can what's coming 6-7 (split short waves makes this a 24 hour event instead of one bombing 12 hour storm), 9-10 and now looks more and more 13-14. I know if you dont get 4" of snow, unhappiness. s LI looks worst chance 1". At least this was a tracker. It's coming but exact details of snowfall etc tbd.
  21. wdrag
    well done on the link explaining. Its a good start and should be paid attention to. Available via Pivatol Wx and probably other sources.
  22. wdrag
    For the record nationally: inclusive of our own top 10 wettest Dec, some climate sites top 5. Top 3 warmest. snapshot via CP, EWR, ABE for both temp/qpf vs yearly reality.
  23. wdrag
    Negate should read. Gently
  24. wdrag
    Can’t hope. Just have to work the ensemble pattern and negate smoothing out the cyclic changes. No one has promised more than 1 NYC
  25. wdrag
    Too tough for me. Guess 1-4 for a start. Just no lock. May not know til Friday afternoon
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