wdrag

Looking for the official CP report...is there one? I saw the 2" of snow on the ground at KEWR.

Just waking up to a solid 4.4" event this part of Wantage NJ, fine flake snow in progress.

Wantage-this southern lower part.. 0.5" 29F

you'll double or triple what you have now, by 6AM Saturday.

Hi! Thought it might be interesting to check-speculate on a white Christmas (since I didnt see the topic earlier). Been watching the EC SNOW DEPTH guidance. I Another uncertain minor 2-6 hour snow event possible between 6A-Noon Tuesday the 24th, that should leave fairly large chunk of our area to qualify as 1" of snow on the ground Christmas morning (rounding 1/2" up). Temps in the interior will be at or below freezing by sundown today and continue possibly through 10AM Christmas Day. So where we exceed an inch today, we have a chance of 1/2" or more on the ground Christmas morning. Attached the op 12z/20 ECMWF attempt to predict snow depth. Grey is about 1/2". XMACIS 12/25 CP amounts attached. I checked EWR which also dates back to 2009 when they 4 on the ground in the morning. . Last time CP moe than 1/2" on the ground on Christmas Day...2009. Probably not going to happen but it might. Depends on tonight and Tuesday morning.

Wantage NJ 0.2" as of 1215P 29F. Roads wet, some driveway-sidewalk pavement snow covered.

no insights right now... bottom line... not sure what drives raw NWS snow forecasts, but the NBM I thought was supposed to be a first cut for the forecasters database? Any NWS forecaster comment? One thing I do know... to respond to model trends, you've got to be nimble or you'll probably be in error--- though NOT always. Takes ALOT of concentrated effort within 2 hours of issuance time (330A/330P). If you're committed to available data at midnight-noon, your briefings at 5A/5P could be missing something important? Again not always.

Something in terms of snow will happen. we're not going to go into the Saturday night arctic airmass without an event

Euro pretty weak compared to the 00z/GFS/CMC models. As you know I like Canadian models when they're stable from run to run.

Noon Christmas Eve (24th) - Noon Christmas Day I84 corridor: Looks to me like periods of snow and possibly sleet along and north of I80 in PA-NJ to at least I90 NYS-MA. Just too uncertain but several more inches of snow could accumulate by the time Santa has accomplished the mission Christmas morning. Even NYC might get a little snow. The does not take into account the 06z/19 EC OP which might say no way?

Good Thursday morning... as others have mentioned,,similar to yesterday. Good Thursday morning everyone-Dec 19. Similar to yesterday's post. A white Christmas is likely for a few spots in the immediate NYC metro (What do you want to use for immadiate = 10 miles??) from probably two minor events for NYC. I95 corridor from Baltimore to Philly and NYC tomorrow night-Saturday morning: Probably minor travel impact at worst but a good chance that you'll see your first slight measurable snow of the season... if it occurs, probably less than 1", enough to make spirits brighter and possible slippery pavements Saturday morning. Maps added are up through 4AM. The NWS model blender snow amount forecast for our area and also a statistical probability of more than 1" of snow and the NWS snowfall forecast before their 4AM issuance. I did add statistical probabilities for Central Park NY which are MUCH lower than what will happen along the NYS-NJ border.

Good Thursday morning everyone-Dec 19. Similar to yesterday's post. A white Christmas is on the way for portions of the I84 corridor from probably two minor events. Each could have a moderate travel impact, but where that is-yet to be determined. Entire I84 Corridor tomorrow-Saturday MIAINLY 11AM-11AM-a 24 hour period: Occasional light snow likely with 1/2-3", especially elevations. If it snows during the midday hours tomorrow, there probably will be pavement melting in the valleys. A different slippery story when it occurs Friday night-Saturday morning. I think pavement treatments will.be needed for northern NJ/eastern PA se NYS, especially Friday night into Saturday morning. Prepare for possible slower travel. If you have travel plans Friday-Saturday, still worthy of monitoring. THIS IS A CHANGE: Noon Christmas Eve (24th) - Noon Christmas Day I84 corridor: Looks to me like periods of snow and possibly sleet along and north of I80 in PA-NJ to at least I90 NYS-MA. Just too uncertain but several more inches of snow could accumulate by the time Santa has accomplished the mission Christmas morning. Even NYC might get a little snow. Maps added are up through 4AM. The NWS model blender snow amount forecast for our area and also a statistical probability of more than 1" of snow and the NWS snowfall forecast before their 4AM issuance. I did add statistical probabilities for Central Park NY which are MUCH lower than what will happen along the NYS-NJ border and eastern Massachusetts.

No guarantees on what will happen. Modeling showa a pair of closely following short waves diving southeast toward the mid Atlantic coast, sharpening the mid level trough. While too far offshore for a 4+" event, the 850 MB weak warm advection, 850MB vorticity from s central NYS sewd to NNJ and under running boundary layer northerly flow is going to produce a little bit of snow. For CP, think it needs to measure after sundown Fri. Outskirts of NYC from NNJ-se NYS-sw CT across LI should see 1/4" to maybe as much as 2", with potential for 3" near the NYS-PA nw NJ border. 4AM NWS has not posted any snowfall for NYC, so the probability (attached) for 0.1" in CP is very low (26%). Added 08z WSSI-P graphic and the NWS 08z/18 Blend of Models. If the system ends up weaker and not sharpening, then this modeled event fritters (850 vort trough just becomes general northerly CAA flow instead of what is modeled now). Should the miD level trough sharpen a bit more then that boosts confidence for NYC metro spirits brightened by snow on the ground Saturday morning. If PHL measures, that would be their first of the year. BOS already has measured. Reserving comment for Christmas possibilities to the general Dec thread for now, will we get through 12z Sat. Click graphics for clarity.805A Added OBS to the title at 748A/20 and one updated prob graphic for NYC CP

Also on lack of threads. I try to focus on the more important ones. Obviously snow brightens most of our lives. Trying to reduce MEH takes on events. So for many this coming event (or non depending where you live) may be a MEH. Tracking in one thread coming soon. I'd love to add Christmas event snowfall too but will reserve for potential separate thread after we get through daybreak Sat with whatever.

Prepping minor thread for first measurable of the season CP Fri night. Should be up by 8A. NO GUARANTEE on 0.1-1" CP.

My mistake... I present a daily FB post to members and Old Forge is part of that group. MY MISTAKE on deleting references to OF.

Good Wednesday morning everyone-Dec 18. I84 corridor winter featured through Christmas Day Entire I84 Corridor Friday-Saturday: Periods of light snow likely with 1/2-3", especially elevations. If it snows during the midday hours Friday, there would probably be pavement melting in the valleys. A different slippery story if it occurs Friday night-Saturday morning. Just a little too early for me to be sure but I think pavement treatments will.be needed for northern NJ/eastern PA se NYS Friday night and prepare for possible slower travel. The coldest air of the season, so far, will invade here by Sunday and Monday the 22nd-23rd with wind chill zero to 10 below Sunday morning.. If you have travel plans Friday-Saturday, still worthy of monitoring. I95 corridor from Baltimore to Philly and NYC Friday night-Saturday morning: Probably minor travel impact at worst but a good chance that you'll see your first slight measurable snow of the season... if it occurs, probably less than 1", enough to make spirits brighter. Just checking the 06z EC before starting a thread. Christmas Day I84 and Old Forge NY: Chance for a period of mixed wintry precipitation. deleted reference to OF (I think I got em all.). 735A

Probably starting a thread around 730AM for the possible first measurable of the season for CP and PHL too. At least snowman sees it. Agree with others on Xmas. Need another look. Saw the ECMWF updated long range. It's not far from normal temps Dec 23-30.

I saw the NAEFS and CPC prediction. Lots of things can mess this up. FOG-Stratus after the Christmas Day event. We might not get 60+ til we see a strong storm northeast into the Great Lakes which might not be til the 29th-30th? We've got snow risks Friday into early Sat, and also Christmas Day. After that? I may get a CP thread going tomorrow if trends continue to favor an event. Seems to me 1/2-3" Poconos across NJ w LI and also eastern MA RI. WSSI-P attached. Low probs for an advisory event (my interp)... this is a conservative product. LI and s NJ least chance of meaningful snow (daytime temps above 32F part of the issue)

To be sure but ... above normal dos not mean record. Potential exists for 1 or 2 days. Think we need to think backdoors in the northeast USA. Torch should be central USA before all this ridging shifts N to Canada and we start cooling in the USA with uncutting short waves near or s of 40N. . Shortest days of the year.

No thread (for now) on possible first measurable snowfall NYC-PHL Friday-Saturday morning. Plenty of uncertainty including Friday daytime temps=melting , if it does snow. Worthy of monitoring for what for us might be a minor event? ICON lost it. Once the CMC drops it, then I do too. WSSI-P attached snowing the potential area for minor impact snowfall...all low probs in a 24 hour period ending 18z Saturday.

Decided to post more clearly I84 corridor considerations that I send to a FB group earlier in the day. Less uncertainty what I'm thinking-ball parking. All ensembles have snow for us Fri-Sat. How much we dont know. Also ensemble 24 hr qpf has something going for us on Christmas Day but if its rain-ice-snow? I84 corridor Wednesday night-early Thursday. Rain changes to wet snow on I84 northward with several inches possible NORTHERN Poconos, northern Orange County across the Northwest Hills of CT and much of the western and northern Massachusetts. Meanwhile southern Poconos from Mt Cobb south into nw NJ and Orange County of NYS, as well as Hartford-Ashford... mostly rain, may end as a trace to 1/2" snow early Thursday morning? The accumulation edge is uncertain so this may change as we move closer to Wednesday. I84 Corridor Friday-Saturday: Periods of snow likely with 1/2-3" Poconos-se NYS-nw NJ and Old Forge NY, while the range of snowfall potential increases in CT-MA to between 1-6" in association with coastal low pressure development. FAR too early to be sure what happens except that the coldest air of the season so far should invade here Sunday and Monday the 22nd-23rd , with possible wind chill values down to 10 below, except 20 below Old Forge. Christmas Day: Small chance for a period of mixed wintry precip.

snowfall last night... CoCoRaHs. D yes not include multiple near 3" reports central SC in nw NJ. Good enough for me to say 2-4" of snow was widespread along and n of I80 in ne PA, nwNJ--se NYS titrating down to 1-3" w Ct.

In comparison to the elevations above 1000 feet listed a one here in Sussex County NJ, little Old Wantage at 740'MSL 7.5" for the season. We didnt have have over 7" last winter until.... Jan 6-7 of this year! I'll take it, plus for us here in nw NJ...temps down to 12F a couple mornings ago, WITHOUT snow cover. We're off to a good start. More good start coming including but not limited to 12/20-21 snow (whatever it is), 12/22-23 coldest pf the season so far. and 12/25 (signs of a short wave undercutting the ridge similar to what happened this past night) permitting snow/ice here. I'll add a CoCoRaHs snowfall map around 915A. Gotta shovel now. 32.4 in this part of Wantage.

06z EPS increasing snowfall since the prior two runs for the 24hr period ending 12z/Saturday. Doesn't mean its going to happen but continues to near watching despite minuscule 06z/16 op.