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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    fwiw: The two storm thread is available and will continue til the OBS thread for that storm starts around 7A Tue. I am considering a MDT impact event for the 13th, but for now the snowstorm part is I84 so wind and extending the river flooding rain will have to be the drivers for I95. Another possibly behind that on the ensembles 16th but no thread consideration for that one. This 6th-13th period is probably fairly unique in NYC subforum history with this more wintry event, followed by a flooder and power outage event, followed by a possible wintry event inland flooder-power outage event coast. Dont want to overplay the 13th yet so not threading til Monday morning, if then.
  2. wdrag
    Blessed!
  3. wdrag
    Map of amounts posted by the NWS. They dont have mine in there yet. Anyway... very difficult forecast with a very large gradient. After all is said and done I'll get a map of amounts up here Monday morning. This is one is not done yet... impact is major out here in the sticks. More to come this storm and even for you NYC I think between 9A-2P Sunday. Also, can mix talk of the next storm in here as appropriate... I'd probably wait til late Sunday, but this is winter, and it looks like much more to come.
  4. wdrag
    Wantage NJ (this prt at 740'MSL): 1030PM obs 11.5" of snow since it began 230PM. Most of that (9.8") in 3.5hours (7-1030PM. Mdt snow still at 1050PM 27.5F. Walt. Corrected 3.5 hour amount at 1056PM. Sorry for my calculating mistake.
  5. wdrag
    Road treatments make a big difference. Suspect Metuchen was saving money? or no people to run the trucks or their policy? I know county DPW's and their subcontractors get onto this stuff pretty quick. That's the way your report sounded. State and County on it.
  6. wdrag
    and you said?
  7. wdrag
    Well done! The record will probably keep on going but at least a little snow fell.
  8. wdrag
    I find it hard to believe we'll exceed 10". my guess is we be satisfied with 5-8" and get out of here. Its least it was slippery for a few hours. icing overnight then back to another inch or two of snow tomorrow, I hope.
  9. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 740'MSL. 1.7" snowing steady light. 27/26
  10. wdrag
    1.2" this part of Wantage at 550PM. still small flake snow., 27/26 light northeast wind.
  11. wdrag
    Hold on... I hope you're right but when the max UVM passes by, especially after the first radar bright band, I suspect slight warming aloft will change to rain. I am rooting for snow and the EC and some other modeling has hopes for brief pockets of moderate mixed snow-rain/sleet through midnight on LI. The good news, its not an easy wet snow give in to rain.
  12. wdrag
    0.5" at this Wantage Nj location 440P. SB in earnest around 230P. still small flake. The thump coming up on radar south to s NJ- Dover DE is our evening lift. Am hoping that where sleet and freezing rain it can mix back to snow around I78 and keep us snow longer I80 north. Even though sleet is coming to ne NJ... the snow part might be done, but you might get your self a healthy sleet accum over a 3 hour period? slippery.
  13. wdrag
    Heavy snow discussion is out for NNJ. doubt 430P. Probably not east of I95.
  14. wdrag
    Booked it... thank you!
  15. wdrag
    I can't keep up with the forum..but I've checked MT Holly reports and I'm hearing slight grass cover in North Brunswick and Edison in northeast Nj.
  16. wdrag
    Please keep us posted on webcam at 7PM and 9P. After that's for sure all rain til maybe 10A Sunday when its too late. Haven't see PHL and BWI reports but my guess at least 0.1" there---just via sleet.
  17. wdrag
    I always worry about sleet... HRRR is seeming to lock sleet to just up to Stanhope NJ-Scranton PA at midnight... if so, you're good for 6-9" by midnight. EC very very steady cyclically on qpf near .7 today and .1 or .2 tomorrow morning. Should be some freezing rain-sleet-freezing drizzle in SC 1A-7A Sunday then bands of mainly light snow for 6 to 10 hours and another inch or so on the snow cover but pavement probably mostly wet tomorrow. I hope you get a foot. I'd visit but already take too much time away from family with this computer stuff. You're about 20-30 min from where I live. Go to Granny's for Breakfast on SR23 in Hamburg. Very good.
  18. wdrag
    12"? I dont have a forecast that high for SC. May occur but worried about sleet freezing rain mid-7A, then back to snow. I hope we can get you 10". We'll know. by 10 or 11 tonight.
  19. wdrag
    Took care of the OBS conundrum in the edited title and added tags sleet, obs. Thanks for understanding the idea of continuity on this dual storm thread.
  20. wdrag
    Am on the road but prefer organized as one thread. Thats been the thread all along. Snowing east of PHL. Probably won’t last long
  21. wdrag
    Prefer ones here so we can keep this storm as I package
  22. wdrag
    HRRR has no acc NYC. Most models and BOM less than 1/2" if anything NYC. We'll soon know. Model warm nose is minor early and can be overcome by 1-2 hours of Strong UVV in the dendrite zone, if that thump occurs this far northeast of the low. I am sure we'll see lots of sleet/snow reports on here by 430PM.
  23. wdrag
    Yes...obs here... coming soon. already sleeting Baltimore area. I think snow issuing to break out mid morning PA.
  24. wdrag
    Regarding Tue-Wed; No changes. Right now ensemble guidance is projecting about 8 river forecast points from Philly to ne NJ moderate flood, and 3 potentially major. Additionally if 3.5" qpf occurs by 00z/11, and we add another inch around the 13th (ensemble total 4.5)... The Passaic at Pine Brook would probably be at a minimum in moderate flood 10th-15th. All this predicted on how much rain. Ensembles predictions of river response for NJ is pretty good. That same guidance is giving a bunch of streams in CT minor flood.
  25. wdrag
    No plans for a 13th snow event post, though it looks like I84 corridor can do decent, but not the city. 715A/6
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