wdrag

In case anyone was looking. No second thread from me for the 22nd, but another pretty decent short wave at the bottom of the departing polar vortex moving ne of the Great Lakes will whip through here. For now, not worth a fringe outlook but will revisit tomorrow morning. I'm more interested in the 24th which will clearly have backing flow up the east coast as the PV moves to Baffin Bay Area. Not starting a thread for that till more consensus and its 8 days away but it looks fairly juicy to me. Will recheck Friday as time allows.

No second thread for the 22nd, but just so you know another pretty decent short wave at the bottom of the departing polar vortex moving ne of the Great Lakes will whip through here. For now, not worth a fringe outlook but will revisit tomorrow morning. I'm more interested in the 24th which will clearly have backing flow up the east coast as the PV moves to Baffin Bay Area. Not starting a thread for that till more consensus and its 8 days away but it looks fairly juicy to me. Will recheck Friday as time allows.

Wantage NJ 0.2" at 7P small flake snow still in progress.

New thread delayed til 7P. Hope that’s. It a problem

Just updated thread title Discussion-OBS minor-mdt 1-7" slippery impact 7-14 hr snowstorm mainly btwn Noon Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. Heaviest axis near or just inland I95. New thread for next unknown snow amount event with a large range from fringe 1" to at least moderate 1/22-early 1/24 begins about 530PM. Our 1/19 event that the NAM is trying to find for the first time in its 18z/16 cycle is fairly well produced now by all other modeling with the axis of greatest accumulation still a bit uncertain but seems to be shaping up near or just west of I95 to possibly as far northwest as I84. I added 7" in the title because I'm pretty sure we can see a stripe of 7" but where. C park????? may see its first 4" snowfall since 1/29/22 (thanks to our XMACIS experts). There should be some pretty good banding for a few hours near or after sundown Sunday, and for now seems to locate near or west of I95. Snow ratios should be a little higher in the colder air. You have the ensembles and we'll see how this works out. Had a bottom number 1". It's possible that the Island might have some melting and also a little rain so cant promise there, but this looks to me like we'll see snow everywhere, just how much. Above freezing temps I95 corridor eastward permit melting on contact during the afternoon I95 corridor and LI but after sundown, presuming its snowing, travel conditions can deteriorate rapidly. The good news is that Monday is our Martin Luther King holiday and Inauguration Day so traffic should be less. WPC midday significant snow map attached. The post events temps should still concentrate on the January thread. I'd like to see the 18z GFS regarding the second event which has a pretty good chance of getting fringe snowfall up here 22nd-23rd. That one wont thread til about 530 PM.

Will make a decision on thread wording (probably removing doubts for Sunday evening) for 19-20 at 430P, and I see 00z/16 ECAI NOT mirroring the too fast 00z/16 EPS for the 22nd. That latter one still undecided but likely just northern fringe at worst here late 22 or 23. Beyond that on the bigger se USA threat, just not sure except WSSI-P is big on it being a large scale storm se USA up to NJ. Have a day -my last til 430

06z/16 GFS finally shifted the surface low on Sunday morning further s, allowing better overrunning and now more similar to the other modeling. I expect EC will come around. Its not over, but we're still in the game for a slippery Sunday evening.

No thread for this afternoon-night buts plan on placing your obs here... Widespread flurries, patches of snow showers. My guess is CP T-0.3", eastern LI-e CT may see 1/2-1" amounts in some places (ocean enhanced a bit). Poconos an inch or a bit more. Spotty 1/2" amounts into w NJ/se NYS. Enjoy the flakes.

Good Thursday morning, I've no changes to the thread headline this morning and our anticipations. You're all over it... until the RGEM goes away, I'm staying right with earlier thread notes. Melting on pavement Sunday afternoon, till just after sundown... then potentially very slippery. I was surprised to see the EPS so fast for the next one around Wednesday so, no headline change. Two events should give us some snow. NOTE: VERY cold Mon night-Wed which I think is being discussed in the Jan thread. I've no thoughts beyond the 24th... too many model uncertainties before that.

Suggest following the RGEM vs the prior cycle CMC to see Canadian trends. No thread title change and no split into two events til tomorrow morning, if it looks possible. I continue sure that we'll see 1-2" NYC CP Sunday afternoon evening (I definitely can be wrong) and then I think the way the 5H vortex flies north mid week, and the flow backs on the east coast that a large scale event is probably coming up the eastern USA late 22-24. Dont want to mislead so follow the models and your own expert reads-ensembles, NWS and CPC guidance etc and go from there. My next post probably tomorrow morning. The downer side: daily weekly EPS continues dry axis here 1/20-27.

Perfect Don! Thank you very much. Walt

Hi! That's wayyyyyy back even before. my last move BOX got PHI in June 2010 (HOT summer there). Hopefully it's a good life for all participants hereon.

WPC now had a 10-30% >2.5" snowfall Sunday-Sunday night... first time in a while this close to NYC. I haven't checked, but might be good to check when we had our last 4+ in NYC. I just like all this cold. If ends up 2" or less, it will fit past disappointments up here but I think we have a chance of something decent.,

All yours down there... thank you for all and you have to like your'e in the game for something the next week or two!

Thank you very much to you and Etta. The article had what I needed. Regards, Walt

Good Wednesday morning everyone, Jan 15. What I'm thinking. If the afternoon ensembles confirm, I'll spit the headline into two threads..., primary Jan 19-early 20 and then later 22-24... but that one still is undecided for me. Not a guarantee but to me this looks like a 1'- at worst 5" snow event, probably mostly Sunday afternoon-night, with a delayed ending possible Long Island/CT into midday Monday. NYC seems destined for an inch or 2 with initial melting on pavement Sunday afternoon, but becoming slippery after sundown. I84 corridor for sure an inch, and maybe as much as 4 or 5", especially CT. Much colder Monday-Tuesday. Next Wednesday-Friday Jan 22-24: a southeast USA winter storm likely with a potentially large amount of snow or ice. The northern fringe of the snow has a chance to eventually creep up to NJ-LI-NYC Thursday ish the 23rd.

Good morning mid-Atlantic, Can someone alert me (or post a reply) if anyone there has been looking at Inauguration Day weather in of course DC. In particular I'm looking for information regarding this possibly being the worst wintry Inauguration Day since 1961 (Kennedy Inaugural storm). Seems to me--(my guess only) looks like Noon temps mid 20s with wind, a colder wind chill 10-15 and inch or 2 of snow still left on the ground? If that were true, did anyone review all the inauguration days for wintry conditions? Rain doesn't bother me for my information. Snow on the ground and temps below freezing are my interest. I see nothing in the headlines from LWX, but it might be buried somewhere--I just haven't taken the time to check. Thank you, Walt

I'll carefully look at the thread tomorrow morning and see if we need to split into two events (presumptuous on my part that we get one or the other or both0, but I need to carefully review all the guidance.

Snowman, Hope it works out. fwiw... Just outside the window of the threaded second event (Noon 22nd) ... EPS conservative posi snow depth change attached. This modeling is after 18z/22 into the 23rd. Here's the EPS, probably biased by the big amount in the 12z/14 op... but it's one of the better looks of 24 hr ensemble positive snow depth change in any 12z/14 ensemble the next 10 days here in the east. We have a powerful jet overhead above 500 MB, one of the strongest on record here in the northeast yesterday. While highly unusual, I wouldn't lock out the second event from speeding up 12 hours. I dont have time to add all the high level jet graphics, but I think about this. As you say, the greater non-likelihood is that this slides out just underneath us. On the other hand, while we get a good bite of cold 5H trough around the 21st, it may be pulling NNE so fast with subsequent ridging along the east coast allowing a more northward trend of the short wave emerging in the bottom of the trough That's the hope in me. Anyway... we're still in the game. Huge shift in the Canadian 5 days out in its 12z/14 cycle. IF the EC is to go away for Sunday-Sunday night, I think we'll know with 2 or 3 cycles. I kind of now think we're getting closer to consensus.

Thread continues as is worded... one event for sure...how much CP --will stay with 1-2 there, heavier west. The 22nd-early 23rd... unsure if that will be this far nw. Will rereview tomorrow morning,

Yes, I did see the 06z/14 EC op through 144 hours and that is encouraging...giving NYC CP 1/2-1" snowfall by 06z/20 and more inland with some 3-4 Poconos and nil through 06z e 2/3rds LI Just have to ride it out... cant conclude anything except I do think our snow time is probably Sunday night with second one behind it 121 or 22, probably too far south but threatening northern fringe.

No change from my perspective... concerning yes, but this is where I ride it out on messaging. Models show me no consensus except two events threaten NYC, one light snow the night of the 19th-morning 20th, then the latter late 21-22. Will check back after 4P.

No answers...modeling variable but pretty sure of minor light snow event for our NYC subforum Sunday night-Monday. Light overrunning qpf of mostly under 0.3"... decent more than 10 to 1 snow ratios. Generally suggests to me a minor snow event that lasts a few days to a week in NYC (again presuming I'm not radically overestimating the chance of an inch of snow in CP from this cold transition back to what might be the coldest day of the season next Wednesday?). Lets presume we get an inch or 2 in CP. Try not to get bummed if it isnt refreshed for a while and looks dirty after two days. I'll have more to say on any Monday Inauguration Day snowfall, if it looks like a cant miss 1-2". For now, I find it difficult to believe we will miss a little snow..nickel and dime I know. Thread the needle so not a guarantee. I just think there is too much jet dynamics next Sunday-Monday. The jet is already very strong over our area now. Anything after 05z/20 is all snow or brief ice to snow and probably a fairly dry snow. Will check back tomorrow morning for sure. Thanks for keeping the faith.

Should I throw in the towel? Sighhh... NOT. I'll attach 3 different countries ensemble modeling, totals by Noon Wednesday the 22nd. You figure it out. What I'm seeing is the USA is very conservative, the Euro in between and the Canadian gangbusters, especially considering since this is all POSITIVE SNOW DEPTH growth, taking into account temps when snow falls. This is not the larger 10-1 ratios. Nevertheless, the cutter rain this weekend follow by little or,no snow option still lurks. At the same time I cant quit on the 21st-22nd since something will be on going in the southeast USA. Therefore no change in the headline though for up here and I84, I think Sunday night looks to be my primary risk time. That can change as we draw closer but D5 ensembles start with 12z/14 Tuesday cycle so am hoping the front end of whatever occurs is more or less resolved when we check later Tuesday. I'll check back late today but offline most of the day after 8A. These 00z/13 maps dont have the legend attached but light blue 1+, darker blues 3+, magenta 6+. More or less like that and NOT the heavier 10-1 ratios.

Thank you.