wdrag

No change from my perspective... concerning yes, but this is where I ride it out on messaging. Models show me no consensus except two events threaten NYC, one light snow the night of the 19th-morning 20th, then the latter late 21-22. Will check back after 4P.

No answers...modeling variable but pretty sure of minor light snow event for our NYC subforum Sunday night-Monday. Light overrunning qpf of mostly under 0.3"... decent more than 10 to 1 snow ratios. Generally suggests to me a minor snow event that lasts a few days to a week in NYC (again presuming I'm not radically overestimating the chance of an inch of snow in CP from this cold transition back to what might be the coldest day of the season next Wednesday?). Lets presume we get an inch or 2 in CP. Try not to get bummed if it isnt refreshed for a while and looks dirty after two days. I'll have more to say on any Monday Inauguration Day snowfall, if it looks like a cant miss 1-2". For now, I find it difficult to believe we will miss a little snow..nickel and dime I know. Thread the needle so not a guarantee. I just think there is too much jet dynamics next Sunday-Monday. The jet is already very strong over our area now. Anything after 05z/20 is all snow or brief ice to snow and probably a fairly dry snow. Will check back tomorrow morning for sure. Thanks for keeping the faith.

Should I throw in the towel? Sighhh... NOT. I'll attach 3 different countries ensemble modeling, totals by Noon Wednesday the 22nd. You figure it out. What I'm seeing is the USA is very conservative, the Euro in between and the Canadian gangbusters, especially considering since this is all POSITIVE SNOW DEPTH growth, taking into account temps when snow falls. This is not the larger 10-1 ratios. Nevertheless, the cutter rain this weekend follow by little or,no snow option still lurks. At the same time I cant quit on the 21st-22nd since something will be on going in the southeast USA. Therefore no change in the headline though for up here and I84, I think Sunday night looks to be my primary risk time. That can change as we draw closer but D5 ensembles start with 12z/14 Tuesday cycle so am hoping the front end of whatever occurs is more or less resolved when we check later Tuesday. I'll check back late today but offline most of the day after 8A. These 00z/13 maps dont have the legend attached but light blue 1+, darker blues 3+, magenta 6+. More or less like that and NOT the heavier 10-1 ratios.

Thank you.

fwiw: Checking more 00z/12z Jan 12 EPS guidance. I am thinking that we might need to get what we can from the first event 19-early 20 and may need to watch the bigger snow event pass off to our south around the 22nd? also fwiw... thinking 0.25-0.50 in that 19-22 date time frame so am asking for some of it be snow and useful. This could change since we're 7-10 days out but I think conservative is best on dreaming snowfall and hope for good snow ratios when it does occur (presuming Sunday ish). Am pretty sure it will be cold enough to stick in NYC Sunday night, if indeed qpf occurs, which is maybe the more important uncerainty-timing. That said: have no plans to upgrade the thread title beyond what it is now (mainly minor event-possibly moderate), and hopefully eventually focus on one event when Thursday morning arrives. I'll check back Tomorrow and hopefully we're still in the game.

From WPC web page: Dont know when it posted today and dont know what that means for any modeling etc.. Please note: Due to a water outage at our building, many computer systems have been shut down. Some of our products will not be updating until this problem is resolved. At this time, there is no estimate of when our systems will be back up. Thank you for your patience during this outage.

Is that personal observation today or recent events in January. I haven't seen anything on verifying the EC AI. Thanks. For those who like cutter then cold and no snow. Could happen .. we here in LI/NJ seem to be between axes of heavier qpf (to our NW and SE) but am leaning that most if not all of us will see sort of snow acc. Therefore the thread. Yes... snow could miss us. No guarantees. Am keeping that in mind as we head to D7 ensembles.

Before we get too far ahead... some 12z/12 ensembles offer 0.1-0.5" snow fall to NJ/LI/se NYS, among other nearby locations this Thursday afternoon-evening for the sewd moving short wave across the Great Lakes that may help limit warming here next weekend and enhance our opportunity for mixed wintry to snow on Sunday the 19th(at least the interior).

Hi... The 3PM CPC 6-10 day... while not guaranteed, I think we're good for CP snow accumulation.

The fact that the EC has two different 4+ snow events for the east coast in 84 hours tells me uncertainty and not placing all my marbles one storm. Back at 5.

You all now have the snowy 12z/12 EC op. many more changes-possible delays on the way including noticing a 12z/12 EC 12 hr 5H 12 HR HFC moving down the Rocky-intermountain west Monday morning.

Yes... I hope that's acceptable for the thread window. All I want to see is NYC get 1-2" snow in that 4 day window. How this evolves is for me unknown, but I wouldn't rule out the 19th. I think folks outside AMWX have gotten too confident on what will happen in that 4 day period (I see some folks saying no way snow on Monday in VA).. I think this is a mistake. Yesterday I saw a NYC 10- day dry. now they have precip D8 and 10. The 12z/12 GFS probably did one of its common errors, latching onto the front end short wave as primary... there is a little too much troughing hanging back in the Miss Valley Monday morning imo, to deny a second wave ... that's where it may become a thread the needle where we might be on the northern fringe. Just my perception. so early and we're seeing the run-run variability and the wind shield wiper N-S. I think its best we consider ensembles as primary guidance beyond D6, and use their trends right now NOT JUST cycle to cycle but maybe a trend over 4 cycles. Only 1 cycle trend (so this could fail) on the 12z GEFS, a touch of snow on the ground BOS-NYC-DC (less than 1/2") and an inch is ensembled close to I95 Sunday night. Others have posted their observation that if there is a vast difference in modeling, something jogs everything into much greater consensus around D5. For me, I wait it out. 12z/12 Canadian (maybe its not right but I wont count it out yet) has a large difference in the jet pattern in the northern-southwest USA... offering a connection to a sw USA short wave Monday morning. Both models seem to have dual 5H jet core structure. I monitor.

As Well as 06z EC AI. Huge difference between rain then cold dry 12z GFS (big diff with its snowy 06z vsn) vs the 12z GGEM. Unresolved and up in the air for me. Just have to wait it out. Still D6-9.

My 2c next 10 days: Tuesday-Wednesday. Windy and much colder with scattered flurries: A few small 1/2" dustings possible for the I84 corridor. Wind NOT AS STRONG as what occurred this past week. Thursday PA-NJ-NYS-LI-CT: A period of flurries likely which will dust a few locations with minor amounts of less than 1/2". Primary target not yet known. No change on the 19-22 thread, most of the focus 20-21. A reinforcing wind driven cold, equal or colder than what we've had this winter so far will follow here the 22nd-24th as per initial Bluewave note a day or so ago. Will recheck late today.

Multiple event opportunities 1/19-2/10.. possibly our time to see that elusive 4+? On BOM, I agree w psv88 it seems a little conservative but the BOM gives me a starting point regarding what to think about-investigate--ditto for NWS and decision makers.

Also fwiw: I'll be monitoring trends of the EPS freezing rain qpf. Does it shrink southward due to less qpf, or colder temps (snow), or does it shift west or east implying warming aloft shifting its northward rajectory either up the Apps, or offshore. Interesting to monitor this far out. On the 17th morning, I will probably adjust the headline to whatever looks to be a more likely solution than what is threaded now. I hope at that time we're still in the hunt. I did check snowstorms >4" on LI and the average is 2 or 3/season. Been awhile.

Just posting todays D6-10. Added a comment at 430P that the 12z/11 NAEFS has two distinct events here, one near the 19th (Rain LI), and the other centered near the 21st & that one is colder. 10 days away... plenty will change.

I figure they are a D10 start.

First cut Blend of Models through hr 239 without the 1/10 early 11 snowfall. Yesterdays BOM was pretty conservative (underdone) in our NYC forum.

Glad you posted this. Somewhat similar to various 12z/00z EC op's the past couple of days. = If the GFS smooth rounded base verifies, it wont do much here after the 19th but I'm thinking we now have two 12z/.11 op runs through 240 hours that have something going on. Trough might sharpen-warm (ice) but for now we're in the game for something. Attached image of the smoothed out GFS 5h still has a dual jet at 5H, RRQ of the departing core (yellow 120 kt) east of New England over the Bay of Funds and LFQ of the approaching trough in the Miss Valley (115KT GA). LOTSSSS can go wrong including...too many shortwaves - too closely spaced, or just one event that is wet and then blows colder air over us with no digging trough. WPC D7 now expanding qpf in here. It's going to waffle and so we might know that much more til about Monday or Tuesday of this coming week.

Love this photo... gotta be in the Mountain West. Rainbow and snow cover and a path to an end. Ive lost about 40% of my snow cover from this mornings event... and at 29.5F now.

I'm 74... my Dad had a TIA maybe near age 80. My Mom had dementia in her 80s. There's always something to take us out of the ride. You just don't know, like weather and ejust about verything else. So, I try to leave behind something positive, in case I cant contribute or folks move on to other communication platforms. As of this moment---all very very good.

Good morning LibertyBell, Try this attachment and in case I become incapacitated... help yourself to looking at the data via this link https://maps.cocorahs.org zoom in. Go to map options and change precipitation to snowfall and then go up to the green part of the menu and UPDATE MAP. I hope this helps, Walt

Not. Though I will be away for a part of the new thread... fortunately I saw a note on TV that no storms site for the 10 day so I dont have to sweat a flight back on he east coast the 19th-20th. Not sure what was going on my remaining brain. In a hurry for sure. Thanks for the fact checking. Yay!

If you wish a thread started for the period Jan 19-22