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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    A couple of things bother me about data use: Poweroutage.us... not many media are aware, or I'm in error: The listing is meters without power. That equates to a larger number of people without power (the going relationship is multiple 2.5X, though may be a little high). Still, unless clarified otherwise, power outage map reflects meters out, but the number of people without power higher. I personally like the percentage of the state being without power better... in this case nearly 30% at peak outage yesterday. A lot has been made about the Number of TOR warnings issued for this event. While the data is still incomplete (storm data), I checked via IEM COW, preliminary verification 12z/9-12z/10... and give or take depending on your resources... in this 24 hour period there were 120 TOR warnings (MLB, MIA, TPA combined). My concern is only 37 verified as TOR's (so far). Again, when comparing days of TOR's and the various EF against the background historically (only the last 35 years since the 88D came into existence), we have amped up verification with better supporting documentation. I prefer tempering # of warnings (TOR's are a difficult hazard to verify) as a severity indicator and just going with the reality. No doubt it was a big day with killer storms from multiple hazards embedded within the excellent Milton tracking (cone) by NHC. I say the same thing about Extreme Wind Warnings: This is only a very recent addition (~2005) to our hazards.
  2. wdrag
    From CPC yesterday (10/10/24) on the unfolding La Niña: This posted just I. case it impacts your predictions for snowfall at CP this winter, (ne USA). The IRI plume predicts a weak and a short duration La Niña, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C [Fig. 6]. The latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts were warmer this month, but still predict a weak La Niña. As a result of the warmer predictions and the recent weakening of equatorial trade winds, the team still favors a weak event, but has lowered the chances of La Niña. A weaker La Niña implies that it would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks). In summary, La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (60% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025 [Fig. 7].
  3. wdrag
    Below sometime since about 1230Z... I didnt check the obs time specific. From MOE-Bob Hart extreme wind. KEYW: Key West, Key West Intl Arpt, FL, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KNQX: Key West, Naval Air Stn, FL, United States [44kt, 23m/s]
  4. wdrag
    Manatee County FL 13000 meters without power. No storm report. Cause unknown.
  5. wdrag
    fwiw...noticing much of the w coast of FL, NOS Tide gauges running nearly a foot above predicted, already.
  6. wdrag
    Nothing to do with todays weather here... but in response to Helene flooding, Ben Noll produced this recent historical PW graphic, for future general reference. Presuming the overall ever warming world continues, these PW MAX values will increase. I already am on alert when PW exceeds 1.75", and occasionally we'll get up to 2.5 but a 3" for more than a few hours would be more than alarming. Here's the graphic... reliable resource. Just thought the share would be worthy to store away in the recesses of our references. Have an enjoyable two weeks up here.
  7. wdrag
    Minor interest example: big forest fire in WY as seen in pix yesterday and the 06z/30 HRRR vertically integrated smoke, plus its modeled east and south spread by late Tuesday night. Click for clarity and see the legend info. Vertically integrated implies where coverage is heavy...hazy sunshine... but does not reflect near surface smoke which is expected to be confined to WY and possibly w Dakoas.
  8. wdrag
    What about the Hurricane of 38 (New England)?
  9. wdrag
    I'm interested in knowing which two models performed best on track from FF-GA, and intensity? I dont need timing assessment. There's quite a few pages for me to wade through. Is there any general consensus. Thanks, Walt
  10. wdrag
    Took the liberty to share the WeatherBell winter snowfall outlook, and the link for more details. https://www.weatherbell.com/a-look-at-winter
  11. wdrag
    Added 9/21/24 from CPC - the Sept 19 updated 3 mo outlook: Looks like an OH or Tennessee Valley storm track nearby... everyone on this post is pretty conservative for the winter snowfall (so far). Good timing of a storm and cold enough vertical profile would be welcomed by snow lovers... I'm not giving up yet. CPC Sept 19 DJF below:
  12. wdrag
    I just took a look at the ECMWF ensemble predictions through JFM2025 northern hemisphere. Depressing if it verifies. Above normal temps coast-coast with best chance below normal near the Canadian border of the ne USA, and a dry start turning to a normal or wetter than normal JFM, as ensembled around Sept 1. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A[]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Long (Months)"]%2C"Type"%3A["Forecasts"]}
  13. wdrag
    I will add CPC seasonal outlook updates around 9/21 and then the big one for CPC around Oct 17. Here's from the ACCU-WEATHER supported OFA... a general temperate milder than normal winter in the USA. For our area: Region 2: Atlantic Corridor This swath of land along the East Coast covers portions of seven states, including New York, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, as well as major cities from Boston and NYC to Washington, D.C., and Richmond. How Cold Will Winter Be? Not bad! Temperatures will be average to slightly above average during winter (though 2% colder than average during February). The region will also experience shots of cold in mid-December, early and late January, and late February. Will There Be Snow? Precipitation will be slightly below normal this winter. In this region, snowfall will be below normal in the north and above normal in the south. The most snow is expected to arrive in late December and late February.
  14. wdrag
    Better than last 3 seasons eh? I tend to agree w you on below normal but a little better than the past seasons but my take is not through stats/patterns.--just a guess. One of the factors I failed to mention in the topic introduction--- marine above normal cool season warmth which has probably played a role in more mixed-rain in our subforum, instead of predominant snow.
  15. wdrag
    Regarding the coming winter snowfall. As of August, 2024, CPC had us above normal temp for DJF, and near the storm track - indeterminate regarding above or below normal precipitation, as apparently we progress into a La Niña per their headlines-guidance. Attached are the SEASONAL (Nov 1-March 31) snowfalls in CP (with usual measuring uncertainties found in many datasets not directly associated with NWS office measurements). Also attached is the latest ENTIRE seasonal snowfall per official climate assessment, with 0.5" outside the Nov 1-March 31 primary window. I think we can acknowledge from the datasets presented, that a CP December of above normal snowfall bodes well for an above normal winter of snowfall. I have checked the regional boards adjacent our NYC subforum and have only seen winter outlook discussion on the New England subforum. Posts don't have to be many pages as I think the longer they are, the greater the uncertainty-caveats. However, anything posted in my opinion should be self assessed around March 31, 2025. I'll venture to say anything between 25-35" snowfall is near normal for CP (2013-18 seasons ending March 31) but others will probably disagree. The idea here... it's been awhile (2020-21 season) for an above normal seasonal snowfall in CP and generally in the NYC subforum (Wantage NJ 60" that winter) Seasonal forecasting specific parameters is not easy and statistically less reliable than a 1-3 week period from (T0), the moment of issuance.
  16. wdrag
    Minor good news (from my perspective) regarding the NAM: Due to the fact warm season mesoscale modeling is not showing major rapid improvements in potential qpf, the NAM retirement may be delayed due to the lack of an adequate replacement.
  17. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 8 s High Point NJ, 0.64" officially so far with max rainfall rate 1.2 at 11A. My AWN like many automated gauges runs high and recorded 0.73".
  18. wdrag
    Drenching rain SC in nw NJ since about 1025A... at least 0.4" in places..am approaching 1/2" here in southern Wantage NJ.
  19. wdrag
    Stark contrast in Sussex County NJ... Count me in for 1.16" yesterday 250-7P in southern Wantage. Click attached for clarity
  20. wdrag
    So far... From what I can see on EPS GEFS, NHC will probably have to start TWO sometime between F 9/1-Sun 9/3...based on the two ensemble pix provided. While early model speculation suggests recurve out to sea s of Hat next week, lots of room for change. By the way on Ernesto, I was tandem kayaking Frenchman Bay-Gulf of Maine Wed 8/21 in residual subsiding 3' swells. That Acadia NP vacation prevented me from looking things over carefully for a topic regarding the killer flood ( 7+" )near Southbury in sw CT last Sunday the 18th, when I was traveling up there for a 19 participant multisport.
  21. wdrag
    I attached the OKX digital STP. The highlighted color is over 2". The PHI Digital STP is more accurate from our home on Linq. I also have STN Park in Sparta and WHT - Wheatsworth in Hardyston in 3 letter ID's which I've added as locations too my map. (ball parks I play senior ball in)
  22. wdrag
    fwiw: This part of southern Wantage NJ at least 1.14" 250P-7P with multiple showers and tstorms (my Ambient rad 1.28 but like most home weather stations, these read too high in intense rainfall. EC was nil. Best indicators of potential were in my opinion (looking back at multiple days of guidance... the 12K NAM, HRRR, and very weakly the SPC HREF which vastly underbid max amounts, by I suspect 2" since I was not in the narrow 2+" spots on the Digital STP, as seen on radarscope. ,
  23. wdrag
    I'd considered a thread for iso 5" FF rain tonight-Tue but I'm a little caught up in other things so it's as always, yours to comment. I'm lowering our pool, if that means anything here in in NJ, to allow for 21/2" to fill skimmer..
  24. wdrag
    Seems a little interesting to me next weekend IF the possible Ernesto has slowed to the slowest cluster off the Carolinas, then it would be interesting up the coast as at this time, the GEFS is sharpening the trough along 80W. Depends of course on Ernesto actualizing per the seemingly multi models, and then running slower than the mean. Check 06z/11 180-192 hour GEFS 5H.
  25. wdrag
    CpoCoRaHs amounts where there were reports overlapping 8/4-10/24 to match up with the original post WPC. Not too bad in our area by WPC and it would have been a much better fit but Debby ended up much further west D5-6. The first image shows the max amounts (reported in gold and red). Then the break down in our NYC subforum. Pockets of 5-7" evident in NNJ. Click for clarity. Wantage NJ (this part ) 4.81".
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