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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    I'll get a CoCoRaHs map up at 930AM which will be supplemented by other reports gathered by our group.
  2. wdrag
    Havent followed the Feb thread closely recently, but regarding Sat... please see attached. I saw only the posts this page and their snowy interest for Saturday afternoon is also mine. The plan is to start a tracking thread at Noon for an I95 snowstorm/event Feb 19-20, (maybe better than what just occurred). ALL 00z/12 Global Ensembles that we normally use, continue recent days suggestions. The idea as to get us over the Central Park 10.1" normal February snowfall... I think we're on our way. Finally: I think we have at least a wind advisory event Sunday night-Monday for much of the eastern USA, a period of 45-55 MPH gusts.
  3. wdrag
    Wantage NJ in far northern Sussex County... just had a few flurries-T, so far. I think we get some later this morning-evening. At 410AM have extended the headline into the second event since this reduces thread bounce, AND, I think that "parts" of our NYC subforum including LI, NJ, PA will see an additional few tenths of an inch of snow today with ice pellet very minor amounts this evening, and of course the obligatory icing well inland overnight. Don't be surprised at a little drizzle-freezing drizzle for LI and the NJ coast today. The additional snow may not stick very well during the daylight hours as temps rise. Still suggest cleaning the snowboard AT MOST once every 6 hours and see what you get. Thank you for all your shares. I am considering starting a separate 19th-20th snow storm-event thread late this morning.
  4. wdrag
    Over 6.5" in ACY per PHI CLI.
  5. wdrag
    OBS thread for Wed Noon-8A Thu wont issue (if needed) until late Wed morning, again if needed. Will rearview overnight. No extension of the current thread planned at this time, but monitoring if the weekend system trends sewd 100 miles. For now buying into the GFS/GGEM 12z/11 cycle without as yet a review of the 12z/11 EC.
  6. wdrag
    Looking at the weekend... complex. Looks cold and icy inland-especially I84- after a bit of snow Sat aft-eve.
  7. wdrag
    OBS thread for tonights event has been started... 4PM ish start time for the southern areas. Am expecting at least one more snow-sleet accumulator event, probably Sat aft-eve. Tomorrow night looks wet, possibly with a little sleet/dash of snow ice start NYC?
  8. wdrag
    Most of the snow tonight. Areas of light snow, flurries or possibly freezing drizzle may linger after sunrise Wednesday. NWS 08z/11 ensemble probs for 1 and 4" attached. At 734AM I added what I call the slippery factor--WSSI-P, run off 05z data... the red is 60% or greater chance of MINOR impacts overnight. I sort of like this product. Edited previously intended headline start time at 327P/11 At 410AM have extended the headline into the second event since this reduces thread bounce, AND, I think that "parts" of our NYC subforum including LI, NJ, PA will see an additional few tenths of an inch of snow today with ice pellet very minor amounts this evening, and of course the obligatory icing well inland overnight. Don't be surprised at a little drizzle-freezing drizzle for LI and the NJ coast today. The additional snow may not stick very well during the daylight hours as temps rise. Still suggest cleaning the snowboard AT MOST once every 6 hours and see what you get. I hope we get some decent rainfall overnight. Thank you for all your shares. I am considering starting the 19th-20th snow storm-event late this morning.
  9. wdrag
    Hi!. Will start the OBS thread tomorrow morning so no one gets confused with too many threads. Been debating whether to run it for two events but for now will probably be 4P Tue-Noon Wed, figuring no problems anywhere Wed afternoon except nw NJ hills into the Poconos. Have seen this before where a snow event occurs (tomorrow night), then the northeast wind saturated lowest 5-10k keeps spitting pockets of pesky light snow, freezing drizzle-drizzle (temp dependent) through the day Wednesday. Below what WSSI-P is saying...minor travel problems for s LI. So it occurs at night when fewer are on the road and below criteria for an advisory, but this to me looks like slippery stretches at times up to I80, NYC-LI as the northern edge travel issues. I'll check back tomorrow morning 630-8A.
  10. wdrag
    These are self explanatory from this mornings 4AM cycle. I'll add the OBS thread for tomorrow at 8PM tonight.
  11. wdrag
    It is snow and ice. I've attached NWS storm reports also showing multiple 1.2" near New Brunswick. Is it possible you missed a 45 minute period of heavy wet snow? Best I can do for you... I'll accept CoCoRaHs any day, except if a decimal point mess up or combining two days in one. CoCoRaHs is accepted for Climate reports. This may not help, but best I can do in a hurry.
  12. wdrag
    No changes tonight to the headline. Not worth it. Keep on going.
  13. wdrag
    Not title change til half time tonight or 7AM Monday. Probably read "At least some snow accumulation from 3 wintry events Noon Tuesday-9A Wed, 3P Wed-Noon Thu and 3P Sat-7A Mon 2/17". Want to review more guidance for next weekend. I dont prefer the warm inside look of the 12z/9 EPS but it's an option that needs consideration. 12z/9 NAEFS is a little colder with max axis qpf continuing over or south of our area. I think 2" qpf is probable by 12z/17. How much is snow ice rain? We could get our monthly snowfall up within 2" of the entire Feb avg.
  14. wdrag
    You all humor me from time to time... thanks for your comment(s). Inexact science, but pretty darn good when you consider the potential for lead time Preparatory information to the public mitigating hazard impact. That's why our road departments are generally on top of the situations and able to minimize disruptions. returning after 4P.
  15. wdrag
    Keep looking... posting. OBS thread for the first event will probably be posted Monday evening or at the latest Tuesday morning 7AM. Just in case anyone wonders why the entire next weekend will probably be incorporated into this 3 event thread... the weekend starts on the last day of the currently written thread, and as snow. Since it looks so complicated, I think it best to include the entire weekend (through 12z/Monday the 17th). This particular thread will probably shut down around at 00z/16 when all comments can shift over to the probable weekend OBS thread. Snow blowing now and probably not commenting again til 515P Below what I used for my FB hazard post, covering the 3 coming events. I'll update these late his afternoon. I forgot to highlight the state boundaries but you'll probably click and figure it out.
  16. wdrag
    This thread will continue as posted as I responded to complaints and incorporated multiple probable snow accumulators of some sort for NYC, Tue night(2-5), Wednesday evening (1" or less), and Saturday evening-possibly into Monday morning the 17th (large multi hazard event?). This was done to limit threads for clicking back and forth. This particular thread will probably be extended through the 16th or early 17th, in the late afternoon pre Super Bowl update, pending review of the 12z ensembles. This is your week. Have tried to keep this simple but you have to admit to being thrilled with snow action and an unusual train of wintry threats. I'll separate out the OBS threads for each of the next 3 wintry events. Also Next Monday we'll add up the total melted qpf which has a very good chance to be 3" in at least a fairly large portion of our NYC sub forum, between the 6th-16th. Already as of this morning is widespread 0.5-1.2".
  17. wdrag
    Hope we agree that the NAM and SREF are not always best... certainly not last night. This time the EC-EPS kind of nailed it, Canadian and GFS not too bad either, as opposed to last Thursday when the NAM/SREF prevailed. That is why pronouncements need to be counted in uncertainty. CoCoRaHs for last nights snow attached. Please click for clarity and unless your amount differs by more than 20% from these numbers, please accept this as reasonable.
  18. wdrag
    Wantage NJ final 3.0 for this part of the community.
  19. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 4sw. 2.3" of snow-sleet as of 10P. 24F. Began as sleet around 707P, over to snow by 8P and snowed mdt-heavy roughly 830-930P. Will check in the morning with a final. Walt
  20. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 1" at 845P... moderate snow. I think the next 1 hr or 2 is our worst. when it lightens up via radar, that should allow the warming aloft to change snow to ice. Once it mixes with ice pellets, I think the main snow show is over.
  21. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 0.2" at 8P 25/22.
  22. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 0.1" snow-sleet new on the ground as sleet to start has become mostly small flake snow. 28/19.
  23. wdrag
    ice pellets to start in Wantage NJ... 29.1F. 707P/8
  24. wdrag
    Quite the challenge tonight... how much qpf before an above freezing layer between 725-825MB arrives and turns snow to rain/sleet.freezing rain. There could be quite a gradient of ice to heavy snow between DXR-HPN, POU-MGJ. I should be sleet here at 10PM in Wantage per NAM. IF the HRRR is right... forget the sleet-rain. I'm playing cautious lower end of snow.
  25. wdrag
    Looking back at p1 starter... yes, as it was written below. I didnt get specific on snow amounts, just pointing out the overall impact and concerns. It takes time (for me) to think these starter threads out (1/2 -1.5 hours), so that they don't overhype, and try to keep a general perspective on the upcoming reality and concerns but also point what I think are modeled expectations, that do not get communicated very well beyond the WWA process in the NWS-WPC, which OVERALL tends to be limited to 60-72 hours. Our HWO's used to permit raising flags well in advance (beyond D3) but no more (to my knowledge). Posted Monday at 07:47 AM This coming weekend Feb 8-9 NORTHEAST USA near and west of I95 through the 184 corridor: Another mixed wintry event with delays and cancellations likely, especially later Saturday into Sunday morning. Timing might be in error as we're 5 days in advance. QPF is ensembled similarly to the 2/5-6 event, somewhere between 1/4-3/4". For now the attached ensembles favor I84 corridor down to the interior of I95 with more risk of rain and melting NYC-LI. The presented ensembles can be in significant max latitude (n/s) axis error 5-6 days in advance of the occurrence. It is a trackable event, in what looks like a train of events for February...some of which can veer off and disappoint but we're at least in the wintry mix game.
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