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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
    Will add CoCoRaHs rain totals around 10AM (where they reported) for the period 8/3-8 to know where we're at. Strongest flash flood/power outage potential along the PA/NJ border Noon-5P, and I95-eastward 5PM-10PM. Spotty 7-9" totals near Trenton so far.
  2. wdrag
    A TOR occurred near Newark DE around 712P. Philly.com story as well. Nothing major but...
  3. wdrag
    Fwiw: I saw multiple 3-4" reports on DEOS northern DE/Chester Cty area of se PA and multiple 5-7.5: reports on wundermap (no quality control of wundermap reports as I think automated home systems tend to run high when rainfall rates are intense). Friday will be interesting, especially evening bands in PW off 2.5"... think a few rainfall reports on our area of 1-3" in 1 hr. Walt
  4. wdrag
    BEAR, DE. 3.87" on the Wundermap... everyone else less than 1.5 so far... PHI with the FFW from earlier.
  5. wdrag
    May be worth monitoring the area of showers, some very heavy in DE, sePA sw NJ. Might be (VERY LOOSELY) signs of a PRE. We'll see if grows as it advances northward tonight through e PA/w NJ. BIG rains involved there. Weak sfcc boundary with 20C 850 Dewpoints nosing in on se 850 winds lifting a bit over the boundary near the De RVR, weak RRQ of the 2H jet over New England. Not traditionally located in the power point composite link. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/seminar_files/PRE_NWS_Teletraining.ppt
  6. wdrag
    My guess is rain shrouded with low LCL, possibly not well seen in squally rains. Not saying what will happen but am recommending to be cautious late tomorrow-tomorrow eve and monitor any warnings.
  7. wdrag
    imo a good post incorporating machine guidance... and I'm in agreement. My take only... mm pretty certain FFA needed for tomorrow in NNJ, e PA and maybe a wind advisory for the coastal plain. Showery bands will continue rotating n-nw from the Atlantic and our sodden area should not be downplaying-dismissive the potential impacts here by Friday evening. I have to think power outages by tomorrow evening from squalls, possible svr and excessive short duration rainfall. Wantage had more rain overnight than what occurred Tuesday evening... (1/2"). So for many this will be no big deal going forward, except if you can't get home due to flooding-downed wires. the HREF referenced abeve does not include anything after 8P Friday evening when the I95 corridor gets a pretty good slug of additional water. I'm following HREF, HRRR, RAP, RGEM, HRDPS trends. All of these could be a tad high but the max's and bullseyes will belpful.
  8. wdrag
    Not sure if anyone is noticing the 06z-09z/7EC op, HRRR and RAP (future forecasts though may be overdone at times). Lots of rain coming. This morning all the yellows on radar at least 0.1/hr. and I80 south should do ok in the bands... adding up. PW near 1.9" today -Thursday along and south of I80 and up to 2.6 Friday night. Modeling is trying to get some decent showers moving north tomorrow, maybe in clusters ahead of the warm front. I'm not one believing an inch or less the rest of the way NYC. Doesn't mean I'm right but this is just not time to let the guard down. Additionally coastal plain winds Fri afternoon gust 40-50 MPH with fully leaved wet leaves and sodden ground making it fairly ripe for uproots and power outages I95 eastward. Not even convinced so far west on the Debbie remains track. Also sever later Fri? PRE will need to be explored late today for Thursday afternoon or night. If the future HRRR/RAP back off, then my thinking is incorrect the relatively dry NYC comments will be correct but I myself am looking for 1.5-5" more inches NNJ/NYC/SE NYS by 18z Sat.
  9. wdrag
    Two 7" CoCoRaHs reports near Trenton and one 5+ in the Bronx and one in Bergen County per OKX PNS at 1131P last night. Haven't checked much else. Will shorten headline around 9A.
  10. wdrag
    NYS Mesonet official climate site at the Bronx 5.15". Several NNJ climate sites around 3.5". Rainfall of at least 0.8" hour beneath heavier bands I95 corridor.
  11. wdrag
    Wundermap..automated gages...probably read a little high but spotty 5-7". Not official HIGHLY variable.
  12. wdrag
    Keep us posted.... you should exceed 5" by midnight.
  13. wdrag
    Interesting. I'm thinking cellar apt flooding (absolutely not the king) Also, 22,000 meters without power in NJ now. Probably will get worse and reduce sump pump assistance if no generator. Also, EC and many models are. behind on what is occurring in NNJ/LI today... and...18z EC has 50MPH+ gusts in coastal NJ and LI later Friday-Fri night. Uproots and power problems, especially where 5+ this afternoon-Friday evening.
  14. wdrag
    Not sure if I missed something but maybe a flood emergency in the Bronx? Sure looks rough there to me dependent on already the spotty short duration excessive there. Not my call and maybe local offices see it with different data.
  15. wdrag
    For now am behaving and not posting on the event specificv link til 5" reports, but The Bronx climate site is over 4.25", and Oceanport in ne NJ 3.5". All those road closures and wind damage reports good to go on the 5-12" pocket link.
  16. wdrag
    fwiw... we already know of many 2-2.75" amounts in central-north central NJ, in the early part of this event. Am still looking for 3+" reports prior to 6P, since digital radar amounts have exceeded that in a few spots in the I80-I195 band.
  17. wdrag
    excellent use of guidance--- see those 5's and 7's tween i80-I78 and ne MD. the idea is there... might be off a little bit but we will know more tomorrow. Impressive amounts also on the RAP and 06z EC. Wont surprise me if a flood emergency may be needed for a few urban locations by Saturday morning. Not the worst ever, but life threatening for a few people for sure, just in my opinion. Now to pinpoint max's within 10 miles with 3 hours evacuation notice, if it gets that bad.
  18. wdrag
    No changes from my view, though tomorrow I may shorten up the yield to Saturday, but still not convinced its done by 21z Sat. This afternoon into tomorrow morning will be very large... 06z/6 NAM and HRRR versions I think are onto max amounts... placement always imperfect but close. Might have our first 5+ report tomorrow morning.
  19. wdrag
    Monitor NWS products including NHC and local offices from OKX and PHI. This Topic doesn't guarantee anything but serves as a platform for comment. Suggest starting with actual 5+" rainfalls, or unusual flooding. Note: WPC is already bullish on Tuesday's rainfall. Tropical Debby remnants-east coast trough-RRQ upper level jet related pattern this week had WPC intermittently forecasting 7+" of rain in NJ and possibly coastal CT/LI. PA and se NYS may also be involved in big rain. PRE conditions may??? exist late this week (Fri-Sat?) but uncertain in our NYC subforum. Added a few graphics. WPC overall has been advertising 5+ in its graphics for our area since 06z/4. Below is the WPC 7 day rainfall forecast based on ensembles etc. Sampler past 3 days rainfall via CoCoRaHs. Machine ECMWF EFI, Machine GEFS ARI and UFHS, WPC D2 excessive and their D5. You'll note the GEFS machine tools extend beyond D5. This weeklong accumulative event may be over by Sunday the 11th. FFG is very dry south of I80, so far. This could. change radically by Friday night. Ensemble river stage products right now are conservative but highlight I95 corridor in our area. FFG for now is most vulnerable I80 northward in NJ. What to do? Just think of what you may??? need to alter in your plans due to flooded roads/streams, cellars. Potential doesn't mean it occurs. 727A/5 Initial title Potential POCKETS 5-12" of rain by 18z Sunday. Suggest OBS Tue-Sunday only when exceeding 5".123411
  20. wdrag
    Just woke up and checked WPC... haven't seen anything else, but think ill get a thread going by 9A. Still need to digest.
  21. wdrag
    Compare the ECMWF Precipitation EFI from 00z/4 vs 12z/4b(bottom). About the same area but stronger signal...maybe a slight turn sewd on the 12z cycle. Will check this again daybreak Monday.
  22. wdrag
    I did se the 12z/ec op and its juicy all the way up to I90 but for now... think I'll wait on a thread so as not to too put too much emphasis on what may be coming to a portion of the NYC subforum, at least til I can more confidently express as per this mornings post, regarding the potential for damaging flooding.
  23. wdrag
    Attached shows WPC slipping the max axis a little southeast Probably no thread from me today on this. Will rearview early Monday. Also about 0.55" in 30 minutes here in this part of Wantage NJ (Sussex County of the northwest part of the state and still thundering) through 159PM (now) and still raining.
  24. wdrag
    Let's take another look at this around 630PM when a whole bunch of new guidance is available. I want to see ECMWF EFI hold firm. This is going to be a tantalizer, I think...slow moving. Different daily relatively narrow paths of 1-3" rainfall from this afternoon, & Tuesday onward. Not sure if anyone else is noticing the potential for a narrow line of heavy showers/storms moving seed in the 6P-midnight time frame Monday. There may are some thoughts to no-go so I'll review and think on it, pending new guidance. Thanks for the feedback.
  25. wdrag
    WPC 7-10" next 7 days in much of NJ on their3AM products. PRE seems in the mix somewhere between northern NYS to DE. Result: lots of flooding beyond the Debby 5 day impacts se USA (ie late this week or coming weekend). No more watering needed for a while. Wantage (this part) 1.44 on Fri and about 0.7 yesterday. imo, HRRR is not responding well to its supposed convection advantage, until a little too late, though it has had Monday evening pegged since yesterday (48 hr product). RGEM HRDPS are worthy of reviewing for big clusters and of course the SPC HREF, where I pay attention to the max bullseye. If you want a thread for the potency ahead, go for it or let me know. For now, I want to wait til late today at the earliest. NHC still not talking flooding in the mid-Atlantic-ne USA. Added all 00z/4 guidance: WPC 7 day total, The GEFS prob for flooding rain and the ECMWF EFI (extreme forecast signal-prob looks pretty high just south of NYC)... all modeling suggesting pockets serious east coast flooding potential NYC down I95 into the se USA. Use the legends for your advantage. Have a day. 641A/4
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