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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    KU top 10? I'm not thinking this, nor a beast but a snowstorm seems ahead for parts of I95 corridor and probably inland. Some signs of development a little too late. GEFS/GEPS have a good snow event but a little concerned about GEPS/GEFS/NAEFS offering only a general 0.4-0.8 qpf. Could be too low and undoubtedly there has to be accentuated snowfall on the inside edge of the comma head, wherever that may be nnw of the closed low. Adding a bunch of guidance: WPC stat prob of 3+" in subsequent days. Back tomorrow morn.
  2. wdrag
    Can't keep up w all the posts. Old news and comparative non-news. NYC CP coldest since Feb 1 2019 seems possible/probable Saturday or Sunday morning?? About 12-13F? May be preceded by a narrow band of squalls early Friday (prior to sunrise?), especially se NYS/PA/nw NJ. Lots of hazy white virga all day Friday per cold pool aloft: Northerly flow after secondary CFP early Friday leaves this dry sourced and unable to get more than passing flake to the ground during the daylight hours?
  3. wdrag
    CoCoRAHS summary posted after 930A/27 for the northeast USA. I thought this had a decent "initial" 19th issuance handle on the widespread wintry event (north of I78) which occurred predominantly 10A/26-5A/27 (was initially too fast by 24 hours). Models were not far enough north on primary qpf axis and heaviest snowfall (I90 widespread 4-9") since the short wave appears to me to have been stronger and further north. midway into the event daily runup. Snow predictions on my part were wayyy too high. Essentially this was a widespread 1-3" event north of I80 to I84 where it transitioned to 2-5" event in far northern part of the NYC subforum. QPF was less than modeled along and s of I80 and and a little heavier than modeled I84 northward. Snow ratios less than 10 to 1 s of I84 where mixed pcpn and I think 10 to 1 or a bit higher to the north of I84. NYC recorded it's first snowfall of the month. Yes exceeding minor but it all counts. So the topic worked okay but the amounts were too high due to northward translation of the short wave. A disappointment for many but for me, I see this as another successful synoptic scale event flagged again 6+days in advance, by the modeling. The overall modeling continues to improve. Thats the researchers/data platforms/computing power that make this happen.
  4. wdrag
    CoCoRAHS summary after 930A today: snowfalls from n MD (sleet/snow) through the forum to northwest of the forum. Also forum water equivalents.
  5. wdrag
    Model runtime logistics... it will happen... and maybe it will happen closer to what was previously discussed? They'll get it all worked out. I'm pretty satisfied with what we have now... If the models improve too much, lots of folks will need to reinvent themselves. Realllyyy - look at the lead time in topics of impact events. Consistently 5 days +.
  6. wdrag
    GFSv16 implementation probably delayed til mid March.
  7. wdrag
    Hi! I'm not an analog expert. I don't try to use them. I just go on patterns, and look for the opportunities on whatever light-moderate-major winter event. However, do share with others herein. They may have some helpful comments. Sorry i can't be of more help. Walt
  8. wdrag
    Feb 7-9 has been on my radar for a day or so...continues but no topic for another day or two. I want to see some NAEFS growth. This should be after the warmup of Feb 4-6. Could be an inland runner. At least we have options... probably good to wait and see how 2/1 modeling evolves.
  9. wdrag
    Just too early. If it's a hugger, it's not suppressed. On wind... too early for me to say 50+ but we have it as a possibility. GEFS has a 30% chance gusts 50+ eastern Li late Monday. Will work on the topic header either late today or Thursday as by that time we should have more consensus.
  10. wdrag
    If it's a hugger, it could be a lot of rain. Predominant track is debatable... suppression is better for the coast. What I do think is that half a foot or more is likely wherever the best track of this long duration event is (VA-northeastward). That's why it's good to enjoy these small events that we just had the past 24 hours; no guarantees on the next decent snow. Pattern evolution looks good to me. Probably good to be enthusiastic about a nor'easter but not locked in on the big snow axis. Fingers crossed for whatever the forum wants. I just hope to surpass my very low 2019-20 winter total by Feb 3 here, which was about 20.7". Just need 2.8". Think we can do that pretty easily near I84 but if suppression dominates and shoves the track axis further southeast, then that could be in jeopardy. Just too early. I think WPC has a decent mapping.
  11. wdrag
    Where is here... I can never tell for sure from the member locations that sometimes differ from actual. Thanks and I apologize that I don't recall-- so many members. Thank you again.
  12. wdrag
    Postied overnight basics from WPC. 00z/27 EPS very steady 6+ inland w of I95 DC VA northward to new England (despite the op member), GEFS a little less northwest but fairly steady, GEPS-GGEM and UK op appear suppressed southward and of course the 00z/27 EC op suppressed as well. Plenty of variable solutions on the table. NAEFS is steady on this being a decent snow event for at least a part of the I95-I84 corridors though slightly slower onset (late 31). The graphics are WPC's ensemble confidence of 3+" of snow for the 24 hour periods ending Feb 1,2,3.
  13. wdrag
    Will do a CoCoRAHS summary and eval around 10 or 11A. Should be basically 1-2" with a little zr- or zl- just s of I84 to 2-4" n of I84 with only spotty zl-. Maybe some 5s"? Catskills to extreme n CT High terrain?
  14. wdrag
    Wantage NJ (this part). 1.3" with flurries in progress. 27F Lovely morning here. 27F.
  15. wdrag
    Wantage NJ (this part) 1.0" steady estimated 2-3Mi s-. slowly adding on a bit. 26.1. cooling very slowly from the 11AM high of 28.0F.
  16. wdrag
    Don and others (Bluewave etal) who may look at this predictive data a lot... has the EPS or GEFS been better at LR predictions of the AO, NAO, PNA, EPO lets say at 10 days, and 16 days? I see some differences in the these ensembles...the GEFS overall a little more favorable for winter. Not sure who said winter over? Doesn't look that way to me yet into mid Feb. Maybe it is over, and I don't/didn't realize it??? Thanks, Walt
  17. wdrag
    @donsutherland1 and others (@bluewave etal) who may look at this predictive data a lot... has the EPS or GEFS been better at LR predictions of the AO, NAO, PNA, EPO lets say at 10 days, and 16 days? I see some differences in the these ensembles...the GEFS overall a little more favorable for winter. Not sure who said winter over? Doesn't look that way to me yet into mid Feb. Maybe it is over, and I don'/didn't realize it??? Thanks, Walt
  18. wdrag
    Yes...it's going to build a bit more through 6 am. Intermittent. For CP: Finally!!! ...THE CENTRAL PARK NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 26 2021... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1869 TO 2021 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 34 356 PM 72 1950 39 -5 46 MINIMUM 31 127 PM 2 1871 27 4 38 AVERAGE 33 33 0 42 PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.05 2.19 1986 0.11 -0.06 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 2.14 3.09 -0.95 1.91 SINCE DEC 1 6.75 7.09 -0.34 9.00 SINCE JAN 1 2.14 3.09 -0.95 1.91 SNOWFALL (IN) TODAY 0.1 12.3 2011 0.2 -0.1 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 0.1 5.7 -5.6 2.3 SINCE DEC 1 10.6 10.5 0.1 4.8 SINCE JUL 1 10.6 10.8 -0.2 4.8 SNOW DEPTH 0
  19. wdrag
    Wantage: steady light snow the past 45 minutes and 0.2" new with 0.7. roads coated 26.8F.
  20. wdrag
    Is that 0.6" total?
  21. wdrag
    slippery anywhere... did the advisory return?
  22. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 8 s High Point: had 0.5" in 6 hours topped with a little freezing drizzle. now snow has started again at 330P 27/26. Route 206 into southern Sussex County NJ through 145P was about the same, a couple degrees warmer in Byram, just n of I80. TreatEd roads were wet except once in a while slush covered in the short showery bursts of snow. Untreated roads are being plowed up here in Wantage. (that's the way it is done here).
  23. wdrag
    Thanks for all the obs now and future. Been a discouraging start in Wantage with lots of grauple but finally 3/4s- moderate side flake snow and 0.2" here now. 27/20. all surfaces covered except retreated roads wet with slight cover on edges where un treated. Unsure how long we'll last as snow here in Wantage. I've checked back on the NAM and GFS forecast soundings from 06z and a little perplexed on the snow pellets at a max T of -2C in the Sparta sounding. So.. 3KNAM continues colder than the GFS. Am thinking the lower end of my ranges, due to poor start. Bottom line: mixed slippery event in progress at least NW of NYC.
  24. wdrag
    10A... steady light snow and snow pellets. Vsby down to ~ 2mi. Trace visible on the ground.
  25. wdrag
    Wantage Nj: flurries and mostly small snow pellets began around 9A. 27.5/15.4 vsby still 7+.
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