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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
    Hi! I want to think things through before probably posting a topic at 5PM, including check of 12z/1 ENS (GEFS/EPS/NAEFS) upper air patterns and the 850 wind flow. Modeling is favoring another storm of power outage potential (wind, perhaps 4+" wet snow extreme nw fringe of our forum with backside wind gusts 40+ MPH) and travel issues for late Friday into Sunday. Unsure how it evolves... NYC probably all rain til flurries at the end...I84 more complex. EC wind gusts 50+ now both front and back side for portions of our forum so power outages may not be much worse than yesterday but still a consideration. If the storm runs slower and max easterly inflow is midday Saturday, then a tidal flooding problem would develop. Thanks for your patience.. Walt 156P.
  2. wdrag
    fwiw: northern and eastern OH still 60,000 meters without power, equivalent to about 150,000 people..most of it near and east of CLE where 6-12" of snow has fallen and they continuegetting hit pretty hard with another 6+ on the way some of that area. Wont surprise ant near 20" east of CLE high terrain. Bummer for power out and 30F air temp.
  3. wdrag
    Yes, though I'm not quite sure if this intensifying trough will close fast enough (PA) before reaching our longitude (LI). BUT.... the backside wnw wind cold air advection(CAA) might provide at least 40-45 kt (wind advisory) gusts... possibly higher, depending on cloud cover and lapse rate... It's usually bit easier with 50-55kt 850MB winds to transfer in CAA during the day, whereas to have yesterdays southerly WAA wind, you tend to need 70+ knots at 850MB.
  4. wdrag
    It's a member but I think its far too slo.
  5. wdrag
    I corrected my prior RMOP post with adding the proper previous cycle forecast for 00z/7 as the 3rd frame. Now you can see the difference. Also put it in here... Finally...here is the 06z/1 500 MB GEFS. Pretty confident membership on something sizable PA or NYS (upper low) for 00z/7. Which is it? north of us...probably, but I think there will be a triple point low off NJ.
  6. wdrag
    Hello again... as of around 9AM... here are some numbers. Here's a snowfall map for Ohio this morning via CoCoRAHS, and power outages now up to 55,000 meters as wet snow accumulates ne OHIO above 4". And then rainfall via CoCoRAHS and NYS mesonet, general 1-3" with a number of 3-3.5" in nw NJ and interior se NYS. This will have been a fairly large impact storm for the coastal ne USA, and northern Ohio.
  7. wdrag
    Of interest to me and for I84 northward winter weather interests. Note the side by side forecast for 00z/ 7 RMOP confidence (for Sunday evening). Two things... heights are 60 meters or more deeper on the 1/00 run than that of 00z/30. Two: vort max passage s of LI and likely triple point low s of LI... and position of the trough. This increases my confidence on a sizable event and winter weather down very close to I84. added the 3rd frame...the side by side of the previous 11/30 cycle for the second frame, same time. Now you can see.
  8. wdrag
    Good Tuesday morning everyone, Dec 1. You may be in the mix for some ice or snow this weekend... marginal chance, but I think some ice or snow is possible. Please see details on the December topic 544A post. I'll shift everything here in the future, IF NYC is completely out of tail end trace snow and we are still in the mix. Probably won't happen til Thursdays posts.
  9. wdrag
    Good morning everyone, Tuesday Dec 1! No topic yet... but the 5th-6th -possibly into early 7th, looks like a rain storm for most of the forum but may have a little ice for the nw edge of the forum I84 region, ending as an inch or two of snow, especially later Sunday the 6th. Overall a short wave dropping south in the Rockies this morning closes off and marches east this week, opening up a little over the Midwest then closing as it goes by LI Sunday with a surface low modeled-ensembled through PA-LI, intensifying as it moves to the northern New England coast late Sunday or Monday morning. NAEFS 52 member 500 MB heights are modeled to deepen 120 meters/24 hr period between the 5th-7th with the 500 MB vort max of the deepening 500MB system crossing NJ Sunday. The 00z/1 EPS does not have this, leaving too much of the lead short wave behind in the sw USA. It could be right but I don't think so. I expect the future EPS to gravitate to the GEFS/NAEFS solution at 500 MB. New 00z/1 RMOP not yet available to do a reality check. So, despite the 06z/1 GFS OP run, I think this deserves some monitoring - just can't topic it yet due to less severity, wind and storm totals wise, than what occurred yesterday-Nov30. Snowfall, mainly nw edge of the forum---IF that far south. I am looking at it carefully. As many will say, probably not much if anything wintry up there near I84 but I'm not so sure---certainly can see a period of hazardous minor ice or snow. 544A/1
  10. wdrag
    Good Tuesday morning all, I'll add a little more wrap for D1 of the two day topic around 1245PM? Just for the record: aside from the modest # of power outages in NJ/PA yesterday, minor in NYS, but more significant newd thru CT, higher still MA and 100,000+ in Maine right now, also now up to about 29,000 power outages in OH (minor on the grid) but still significant---out there due to wet snow. I don't know full scope of amounts as of this writing, but has to be 4-* wet in some parts of northern-western OH. Our part of Wantage NJ, D1 only, was 2.35".
  11. wdrag
    Need to refire my engines Wednesday morning looking to between the 5th and 8th, seeing if there is any predictability, and.... close out the wind/rain topic (ending as snow Poconos).
  12. wdrag
    Wantage 2.28" storm total. Began around 7A... 11 hour rain.
  13. wdrag
    Lightning here in Wantage NJ---rolling thunder. Up to 1.78 and pouring.
  14. wdrag
    power outages... mostly a CT/MA/LI event, so far.
  15. wdrag
    still not seeing reports of anything... if you see damage 58 mph, please alert us
  16. wdrag
    53 KT at GON CT... and these for the record in case there are no summaries. KBDR: Bridgeport, CT, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KBID: Block Island, Block Island State Airport, RI, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KCLM: Port Angeles, WA, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KCPR: Casper, Natrona County Intl Arpt, WY, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KCTB: Cut Bank, Cut Bank Municipal Airport, MT, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KEKS: Ennis, MT, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KEWR: Newark, Newark Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KFMH: Otis ANG Base, MA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KFOK: Westhampton Beach, NY, United States [48kt, 25m/s] KFRG: Farmingdale, Republic Airport, NY, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KHFD: Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KHPN: White Plains, NY, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KHVN: New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KHWV: Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY, United States [48kt, 25m/s] KISP: Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KLGA: New York, La Guardia Airport, NY, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KMMK: Meriden, CT, United States [49kt, 25m/s] KMQE: East Milton, MA, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KMTP: Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY, United States [42kt, 22m/s] 18000+ in CT without power, NYS holding steady around 12K so far. Nj coming up to about 9K.
  17. wdrag
    Past 3 hours max gusts in our area... KFRG: Farmingdale, Republic Airport, NY, United States [52kt, 27m/s] KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [50kt, 26m/s] KACY: Atlantic City, Atlantic City Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KBDR: Bridgeport, CT, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KBID: Block Island, Block Island State Airport, RI, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KEWR: Newark, Newark Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KFOK: Westhampton Beach, NY, United States [48kt, 25m/s] KFRG: Farmingdale, Republic Airport, NY, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KGON: Groton/New London, CT, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KHFD: Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KHPN: White Plains, NY, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KHVN: New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KHWV: Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY, United States [48kt, 25m/s] KILM: Wilmington, Wilmington Intl Arpt, NC, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KISP: Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KLGA: New York, La Guardia Airport, NY, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KMMK: Meriden, CT, United States [41kt, 21m/s]
  18. wdrag
    Rainfall today 1-2+ inches our forum area of NJ. Wantage NJ just had a G25 mph with band of R+... now at 1.17"
  19. wdrag
    Just crossed 1" at Wantage NJ.
  20. wdrag
    In the last hour the power outages have increased considerably NYS, OH, NC.
  21. wdrag
    NYS mesonet now max G 54-60 MPH Queens east to the tip.
  22. wdrag
    LWX is warning. Doesn't mean there is verification posted yet... but enough for the radar operating team to issue.
  23. wdrag
    MANYYYYY reports 40-52KT now on LI coasts into the Norwalk Light area of sw CT... per the generous courtesy of Weather flow.
  24. wdrag
    4 NYS mesonet sites with 50-54 MPH max gusts on LI...Queens to the e tip.
  25. wdrag
    I just checked 12z/30 NAM 3K with R# and wind... think we can do some more of this NYC area next several hours. LI...I dont have an r# so cant promise but it should come up there too.
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