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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
  2. wdrag
    SRM doesn't look impressive on DIX for west chester...but bowing is pretty good. Have to think some sort of strong wind in that.
  3. wdrag
    Think there is possible damaging wind and rotation near West Chester PA... from what I can tell... BUT NWS has all the data and I'm just on radar scope. I could be wrong.
  4. wdrag
    49kt at seaside heights right now as these winds pulse up and down ne NJ and NYC next 3 hrs...then await a convective line of sorts 4-6P? How do I feel... overdone so far in NJ per posted reports... I think LI will do well by the time 7Pm rolls around. ""If"" convection gets going late we should get some 50MPH+ winds with tha scattered-broken line ...it's an IF it gets going. I'm glad we have something...just not quite as robust as would have liked to see verify. LGA has hit 41 KT.
  5. wdrag
    54 MPH Queens NYS mesonet and 51 MPH Lyndhurst NJ past hour. Brief burst, then eases then we get whatever is leftover late this afternoon NJ.
  6. wdrag
    Thanks... excellent post. One note... don't go only by the legend. see the 50 in sw NJ... i think there is a downward blend of all the data. Bottom line 45-60 MPH gusts are now occurring here and there the south two thirds of NJ.
  7. wdrag
    Note; past 3 hours of reported wind gusts 40 kt and greater. ACY-ILG among them. KACY: Atlantic City, Atlantic City Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KCHS: Charleston, Charleston AFB, SC, United States [48kt, 25m/s] KCRE: North Myrtle Beach, Grand Strand Airport, SC, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KGYY: Gary Regional, IN, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KILG: Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KILM: Wilmington, Wilmington Intl Arpt, NC, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KMRH: Beaufort, Michael J Smith Field Airport, NC, United States [45kt, 23m/s] I saw a 50 knot there more than 3 hrs ago.
  8. wdrag
    Logan Township extreme sw NJ 50 kt ~950A> NJ Climate station
  9. wdrag
    52.9 KT Ocean City south beach NJ near ACY at about 940AM ish.
  10. wdrag
    Don't know if Mt Holly will use the 59 MPH in the past hour at Fortesque on DE Bay (far southern NJ).
  11. wdrag
    Strongest warm frontal se wind now shifting to the central-southern NJ coast with reports of 40 knot.
  12. wdrag
    Ocean City MD Weather flow sensor 47 KT now, and Dewey Beach DE weather flow sensor has reached 39.8KT. Cranking up on the Delmarva coast and probably only increasing from there. HRRR op run now trying to form a convective line late this afternoon NJ coast. We'll see what happens. Meanwhile from near Nashville TN to near Lex KY many reports 1/2-1" snowfall so far. mping has the snow rain mess in OH etc.
  13. wdrag
    1215Z... gusts up to 38 KT on the VA coast portion of the Delmarva.
  14. wdrag
    Hope you're right... am a little concerned that this will be lower end event... BUT... too much wind in the sounding to ignore the potential. So far 48KT at MCN GA around 0839z, and CHS SC 44 kt at 1120z. It's just going to emerge-blossom late this morning in NJ and spreasfd newd from there. IF nothing in NJ over 45 MPH by Noon, then much less of a gradient event, then just counting on a convective line of some sort mid afternoon.
  15. wdrag
    Good Monday morning all, I don't expect this wind event to be quite as strong as Nov 15, but I am expecting power outages I95 corridor eastward and if svr occurs e PA/w NJ, there too. 00z06z/30 wind fields aloft seem to be down about 3 kt from yesterday but the FOUS from the 06z NAM is emphatic about an event this afternoon-evening (noon-9PM). First best chance of 50 MPH NYC area around 1PM, then again 5-6P if a svr narrow fine line approaches from the west. You saw the SPC D1 above. I'm including the latest HRRR gust forecast through 01z/1 plus the minimum SPC SREF gust forecast for today, both MPH. It's a matter of monitoring and seeing if we get a low topped fine line of convection 3P-7P. Strongest wind gusts overall continue for LI/CT. Still thinking gusts 45kt many of the airport NYC area east and northeast toward RI, some of it in gradient-showers, and others with thunder. nw Nj/ne PA/se NYS max gust 45-55 MPH, mainly near ridges. Follow NWS forecasts/statements/any warnings and monitor upstream developments, comparing with the models. Right now 16,000 without power in southern GA...minor yellow on the power outage grid from recent svr wx. Big snows expected from near DAY to CLE and ERI by Tuesday night. Much of the northeast 2/3 of Ohio could have snow depth of 6" or greater by early Wednesday morning. Let's see what happens. 525A/30
  16. wdrag
    Now this should be my last post til morning. 23z HRRR for Noon Monday... max gusts thru that time. NJ coast is cranking in Ocean County, ridges in nw NJ starting to hit 50 and NYC-LI etc should start hitting 50 MPH in parts of the area around 1230-130P. Rereviewing guidance tomorrow morning. By then we'll probably have a pretty good idea if svr broke out in the Carolinas and if ORF is up to 35KT at 6AM. This will be a very fast developer. HRRR has 89KT e of Ocean County NJ at 17z. Seems 10 kt too high. That could affect the sfc gusts... but In think the idea is here... intensifying as it moves closer to LI...
  17. wdrag
    NWS has to make the call... guidance I'm seeing says 50 - 60 MPH and multiple hours out there, iso 70 possible. Criteria for HWA sustained ASOS -NWS accepted mesonet wind 40 MPH or NWS accepted gust 58 MPH , or damage. Damage appears likely to me for parts of LI, but that's just my take on this evolution. I see the 21z op HRRR is starting to push gusts 45-55 MPH at 10 AM into s NJ. This is probably my last post til 630AM Monday.
  18. wdrag
    We'll monitor with some interest the 5th-7th... especially hilly nw suburbs... as all have said, doesn't look good for this one in the city. One event at a time...
  19. wdrag
    EC gusts 'roughly' as depicted... by the 12z/29 EC... these numbers are in knots..too small for my aging eyes to clearly read but it looks like lots of 50s coastal NJ into New England. Continues to look to me like LI CT hit hardest but if a low top line of storms develops in the wake of the warm frontal 2 hr torrents during midday, then the mid-late afternoon convective gusts could be damaging in e PA/NJ/and possibly se NYS.Not a lock but but worthy of monitoring. Also fwiw...to maintain self discipline... i use these at MPH instead of knots, trying to be conservative. The potential is there for these in knots but sounding's isothermal lapse rate is always a concern for suppressing potential. Also..fwiw... and probably too high, but I see the EC has 15-20" of snow near CLE by Wednesday morning and quite a large area of 6+ snow DEPTH in OH. Interesting. We'll see what happens. Off line til 530PM ish.
  20. wdrag
    Nog much change in the D2 SPC update... the reasoning below. ...Chesapeake Bay vicinity to Coastal Southern New England... Instability will quickly diminish with northward extent as deeper boundary layer moisture lessens and cooler surface temperatures are forecast. Nevertheless, a couple hundred J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings in conjunction with strong southerly shear. Forcing for ascent will also be maximized across the area, and low-topped bowing line segments will be possible in the high-shear, low-CAPE environment. Locally damaging gusts will be the main concern with this activity. A shallow low level inversion will likely limit tornado activity, however, this limitation could be overcome near the surface low and along the warm front, and a tornado or two can not be ruled out.
  21. wdrag
    Adding one 00z/29 GEFS RMOP graphic on next weekend... door not closed. Confidence on trough axis but not the trough strength .. note confluent flow to our north. While it may be rain here, I'm looking for a decent storm to eventually re-evolve northward.
  22. wdrag
    Adding one operational HRRR graphic for max gust...note 50-60+ LI... less western NJ/interior se NYS. Also the HRRRX is about 3 kt less than the 06z version... still pounds LI CT and se New England even a 70 E LI.
  23. wdrag
    Excellent supporting model guidance Bluewave! Still can be complications and lots of AMWX folks saying, what wind? . SSE or se wind for the first burst. The late afternoon burst might be bigger. Need more guidance from the 12z cycle but I ado think we're on track for a fairly substantial event.
  24. wdrag
    Yes... good for BOX. IF svr occurs Carolinas overnight or tomorrow morning, then redevelops VA/MD midday... going to be widespread minor or greater power outages Monday-Tuesday inclusive of what I think is probably coming for parts of OH, w PA with wet snow. Still tbd the intensities but I saw the GFS has been getting closer to the EC on pressure in recent cycles. Yes on soundings as you note.. lets see how good the guidance is. Suspect the presentations posted MAY be 5MPH too high, but not much more than that and they could verify. I don't know how your house behaves, but I'm also at about 750' in Wantage NJ and I'm thinking gust 32 possibly 45 MPH if convection rolls thru to enhance 3P-6P. Probably offline til 10AM ish.
  25. wdrag
    Good Sunday morning all, Preparing for a wind event near or just a little under November 15, I think is worthwhile. Model consensus still lacking... but from what I can gather, I'd prepare for two bursts of 45-55 knot gusts along the NJ coast, LI snd CT, with 40-50 kt gusts in the interior of NJ/se NYS where ridges seem a best fit for strongest gusts there. IF a narrow line of showers/tstms moves east late in the across the forum... damage will be accentuated. The low level sounding will be critical for transfer...even so I think there will be 50 Knots of wind ~500 feet above us, available for transfer with a 70-80kt 850 jet over LI Monday afternoon. I expect peak gust ~ 45 kt for many of the NYC/LI ASOS airports in the window of Noon-6PM. Thunder should occur in parts of our forum. Here is some of the graphical guidance... What we need to look for to avoid damaging wind Monday, is a DECREASE in this guidance and NO shallow convective line in later modeling. Right now the 06z/29 FOUS has BL winds of 34kt and 27 kt for LGA and PHL respectively Monday (36 kt at BOS). This is very similar to that of November 15. I'm adding the last PGH of this mornings SPC D2 outlook for our area. Then some graphics: a couple from the SPC HREF (MINIMUM) wind gust potential in MPH, for 3PM Monday. The 00z/29 GEFS gust greater than 50 MPH is added for Monday afternoon--impressive! Then some experimental HRRRX 80 meter wind guidance and 10 meter max wind gust potential in knots, at various times Monday afternoon. The HRRRX seems a little strong but it's possible and worth keeping in mind. Farther north (from the Delmarva into coastal southern New England), the primary severe threat will be later into the afternoon as the triple point moves across the region. Low probability potential exists for the development of a narrow and shallow line of convective along the cold front extending southward from the triple point. Even less instability is anticipated here than farther south and any convection will likely become elevated above a low-level stable layer, but the very strong wind fields suggest than even a shallow, elevated storm may be able to produce a strong gust at the surface.
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