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Let's add on: Some of these entire thread event #'s will be big in our subforum. Isolated max rainfall 1-1.5"today and again tomorrow, embedded within bands of showers, especially where some sun can break through and warm it up a bit. IF it's thunder, especially 2P-8P, could be some small hailers, and I think a better chance for small hailers tomorrow afternoon when it heats up a little AND gusty northwest winds to 40 kt possible ne PA/NJ/se NYS where we start getting on the back side of the trough. Added on PRELIM event rainfall via CoCoRAHS only.

Good morning! Lot's of action spread out over the next 7 days. Will comment on the weekend in the specific thread and and begin a SVR/PRE thread for Tue-Fri AM by 8A.

No Elsa thread for me, yet... will more carefully reevaluate tomorrow morning. 00z/3 EPS northward drift will prompt.

Here you go on 3.5"+ for today only..., near s Nyack. Weather Underground. Digital storm totals and Wx Underground support each other.

Wantage NJ had a real rate of almost 4"/hr around 830P. rainfall today 1.42, with 0.8" in less than 30 minutes this eve. Added SVR reports from this afternoon...D3 of SVR in our area... might have hailers this weekend? and looks to me like spotty 5-7" rainfall on digital storm totals past two days near NYC. Numbers should be impressive. Overall, seems to have been well modeled by the GFS operationally at thread issue time and prior. EC was a little slow to catch on, as it may be with Elsa? More tomorrow morning. Have a night and hopefully you're not flooding. Walt

No Elsa thread yet but checking again after 8p tonight. PRE and nearby Elsa now on GFS and GGEM overnight cycles but Storm missing on EC op???

No ELSA thread yet, if ever for me on our subforum, since EC op doesn't show anything significant. GFS/GGEM do, and a possible PRE as well. So for now, am reluctant to confidently comment on tropical occurrence here. If others are confident we'll get some sort of moisture contrib., go for it. Will rereview after 8P tonight.

SVR ydy primarily I78 south, not as far north as modeled-expected when the thread started. Pathetic rainfall so far few spots far nw NJ (under 0.2" so far) but elsewhere, amounts will continue to add up through the 4th. Will review totals this weekend. No time to follow up today. Thanks for your posts. Suspect some impressive #s still possible in the forum by Sunday night.

Can’t post much prior to 7p. Interesting 48 hours ahead. Severe watch should be out soon

Summary of reports to 5AM this morning. Not quite as extensive se NYS as anticipated but something and I see 1 report on W LI looked pretty serious. Rainfall not as extensive. Will add the rainfall numbers on rainfall for the multi day event on Sat morning after a lot of this ss complete. Also appended the SPC epredawn SVR threat area, mostly NJ/LI. Overall: we have the current band northern PA extending into MA. The real deal, of whatever is to happen should be 4PM-9PM for NJ/LI..progressive. After that, evolution uncertain for Fri-Sat and maybe even Sun?? Probably not enough to meet general modeled (widespread 1.5"+) expectations from several days ago. Personally cannot add much if anything prior to 430P... hopefully you'll have something of interest by then.

Watch northern PTN of NYC subforum

My 93.4 at 740'MSL in Wantage NJ is the hottest recorded here since July 2, 2018 (94.1).

Doesn't mean lots of BIG storms but does indicate some have weather ahead.

Might be an interesting next 6 hours (gthru 8p?) as in my mind, the apparent remnants of Danny circulation act upon a narrow band of downstream convection vcnty PIT- possibly Scranton. FFW's upstream. Hilly terrain out there. Otherwise, please follow SPC expanding area of Watches and NWS warnings-LSR verifications.

So, impacting post event analysis... a couple of demo's this morning and why i think there is room for improvement, adding WXUnderground data for some sort of filtered ingest into radar and sensor evaluations. Pea sized hail occurred in Pike County as I recall so some of the radar data there may be a little high. Ground truth... still primary and the multiplatform mix needs further improvement. Examples follow for Pike County PA and the Indianapolis metro area this morning. Pike County PA: I saw several reports of 1/2" qpf yesterday in Pike County PA, but CoCoRahs has no reported OBS. Indianapolis: Radar eval looks a little low this morning per the reported CoCORAHS data.

Invest modeled to turn northward for a possible USA landfall in early July and is it far enough west to contribute to PWAT up here the second week of July?

I've a question to tropics group... no answer as of yet but as I'm seeing it.... remains of Danny vort lowest 300 MB (700, 850, 925) is somewhere in W TN/w KY this morning, ready to be absorbed ahead of the approaching front. Wondering if it's enhanced wind convergence is driving the band of heavy showers along I70 of southern IND into w central OH. Could be a forgotten player in heavy rains NJ-Delmarva tomorrow? Doesn't seem to have much high dew point pooling but the wind field does look like it might be a contribution well in advance of the front. Early morning qpf out there nearly 2".

Anyone still tracking Danny remains? Sees like somewhere down in TN/nw AL this morning???? Is that correct?? Thanks, Walt

Have added the 833AM SPC outlook as mentioned by Crossbow above. My gut is telling me a big day is ahead for southern NYS/CT breaking down along I80 this evening. Time frame 3P-9P, with NYC last around 7-9P. Big CAPE to our north is my flag, but the HI down here and yesterdays lead severe which I think everyone will admit was further south than predicted are my concerns for bigger this far south. Slightly stronger wind fields than yesterday as well. Also, fwiw, se NYS and ne PA picked up some 1" clusters of storms yesterday as we'll soon see via CoCoRAHS and already in the mesonet data (1.3" max so far). This post worked as normal-thank you.

Good Wednesday morning everyone, No significant changes to the WPC rainfall/severe weather threats as posted yesterday. We shall see what happens. I'll tend to be around today-this evening to comment, not so Thurs-Fri DAYS. There was 1 minor damage in the Bristol CT area yesterday (our official forum coverage area). I'll post the CoCoRAHS rainfall for the past 24 hours, around 10A with brief heavy showers nw NJ yesterday afternoon, and then last night across interior se NYS into sw CT after midnight.

Not easy to post w an image for me. Have to do some redo's. Warnings extreme ne PA and ne CT but no svr our forum. Spotty heavy showers extreme nw NJ with up to ~3/4" seen in the data between 2-445P. Saw pea size hail in an mPing report sw of Port Jervis. Wantage heat today of 92.5 at 740'MSL is hoter than anytime last summer.

Anyone having problems posting words with their graphics? Unsure what I'm doing wrong. Has something changed?

1.5" covers entire subforum next 5 fays, most of it the next 3. 2"+ across se 2/3rd NJ.

What somehow is not allowing a post direct from WPC. Day 3 Valid 12Z Thu Jul 01 2021 - 12Z Fri Jul 02 2021 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... Troughing will dig southward-southeastward out of Ontario into the Ohio Valley, allowing the long-standing boundary to move southward and eastward as it gets reinforced from the northern height falls. Right rear quadrant of the jet (~70-100kts) will dip into the eastern Great Lakes early Thursday promoting larger-scale upper divergence above the surface cold front. Axis of precipitable water values 1.50-2.00" (about +2 sigma) will precede the front, coupled with CAPE values 1000-2000 J/kg generally south of 40N. 00Z guidance showed differences in timing and how far east (I-95 to I-87 corridor) and southeast (western VA/NC) heavier rainfall may get (or in one or two waves), though the ECMWF ensemble mean has been rather steady the past few runs while the GEFS mean has wavered on favoring the DelMarVa or not. Best QPF signal aligning with heavier QPF was over the central Appalachians which may be overnight Thu into early Fri. Multi-ensemble probabilities (GEFS/ECENS/CMCE) of at least 1"/24hrs was about 50% in the Slight Risk area, and about 15% for 2"/24hrs. Extended the Marginal area westward back to the Southern Plains and SE CO where PW values will remain high (1.50-2.00") just to the south of the cold front.

Wed-Thursday primary days, very low prob big storm late today NYS-NJ border?