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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
    See 18z HRRRX .. definitely possible. I think mPing will be showing snow both nw and e of NYC.
  2. wdrag
    fwiw... legend for snow mounts 18Z HRRRX.
  3. wdrag
    Noticing two bands of strong banding transitioning northward through CT MA tomorrow...once mid morning and the other early afternoon. There is going to be quite a power outage event I think in MA/CT high terrain... combo of wet snow and gusts 35-45 MPH... I could see 1-2"/hr snowfall occurrence in parts of N CT interior MA tomorrow. Big problem up there. Also... don't give up yet in NNJ and even a snow shower down to NYC-LI in the wake Saturday midday-afternoon. Thunder I'm pretty sure will happen in southern New England Saturday mid morning-first burst of ice coated snow and strong pressure falls-advection fields. I may add more around 3P. I am thankfull this wasn't a big waste of our time... our CT and even NNJ and se NYS members will see some snow in the air, tho I think the 4+ acsums reserved mostly for CT. Snow depth on the EC suggests well over 6" in nw CT. Need to balance this with the still reserved GGEM-RGEM... marginal thermal profiles. It's the NAM-EC and even GFS vs the reserved GGEM-RGEM. What the models giveth, they can taketh. I don't want to see the 18z or 00z models back down. Here's the SPC HREF snowfall - see it's legend and also the 19z wind gust forecast... (MEAN).
  4. wdrag
    Suggest looking at Kuchera and merged positive snow depth. Helps with elevations and warm daytime temps. Definitely more favorable than what we saw on the 00z/4 cycle.
  5. wdrag
    Looking good for High Impact 4+" elevations per NAM and HRRR for a significant impact event e of the CT River interior MA/n CT down to near our just nw of I95...combined wet snow/few wind gusts 35-45 MPH except 50+MPH I95 MA and possibly RI. Hopefully the 12z/4 multimodel westward drift is legit. IFFFFF it is, I want to point out the HRRR had it first. I expect gusts 45-55 MPH NJ coast and LI except few gusts lesser 40-45 MPH NYC.
  6. wdrag
    You all have it... fun and snow change challenging for your area. I've nothing to add that you're not already aware of. Monitor the HRRR 06z, 12z,18z/4 trends realizing the HRRR tends to run a little warm (or did prior to the upgrade of a couple days ago). Its the furthest west of the 00z-06z/4 operational modeling.
  7. wdrag
    Good Friday morning everyone, Tough to stomach but my upgraded expectation from predawn yesterday (Thursday Dec 3), doesn't look like it will happen. Instead the base topic discussion from two days ago looks to be my own perception of accurate considerations for the NYC forum. GFS HRRR are closest holdouts for high impact, so I don't completely give up, but overall---modeling does not have the 06z/4 HRRR as a consensus solution in our NYC regional forum. I'm monitoring the 12z and 18z HRRR for trends on precip shield and gusts (it should be further east if all the other 00z/06z operational modeling is reliable). HRRR tends to run slightly warm on its profiles. It is the model that seems to have the comma head precip, furthest west tomorrow morning. IF that remains the case through the 18z cycle today, then we're in better shape for a higher impact event for LI/CT. My 00z-06z/4 model based snow expectation ne PA/nw NJ is Trace -2"; Litchfield Hills in our area 1-4" of snow tomorrow morning. Gusts 45-55MPH e LI and NJ coasts Saturday morning-midday with this mornings D1-2WPC issuance qpf sufficing which says no NEW flooding risk for NJ.
  8. wdrag
    fwiw: HRRRX (experimental). Could be overdone and too exuberant... BUT... for 18z/5 notice the max gust potential (50 kt NJ LBI area and 40-45 kt on much of LI) and the 850-500 RH with 700 wind... quite an area of lift northwest of the storm and the se edge of the 90% RH, axised ne-sw thru NYC. Snow is already accumulating down into NJ high terrain and I would think there is some pretty good precip rates on going from NJ thru toward BOS. Let's see what the next cycles say. As i prefaced...this could be overdone for us... but it is potent.
  9. wdrag
    Have seen the trend and some of the discussion. I'd like tor see the 00z, 06z,12z/4 cycles each edge nw 20 miles... if that doesn't happen, I will be wrong on the high impact. Definitely disconcerting but not overly discouraged. In a fairly high amplitude pattern, Sensitivity interaction nuances can make a big difference. However, to know which guides what, imo, we don't know. I know some folks are discouraged about modeling. We've just come off two topics with easily more than 5 days advance post, that I thought were successful framing of the future. This one we've known about uncertainty. And we also know this is going to be a pretty good storm. In winter we notice the difference of 60 miles more easily, because of the snow factor. I know in 2000, I didn't have ensembles to look at to help gauge uncertainty (just a so called poor mans operational mental ensemble). We're doing better and this one is not yet over. Maybe tomorrow I'll admit that it's fairly routine, but for now... tooo much potency to ignore. Whether it yields here or just a little to our east and northeast... I can't be sure. Will briefly comment tomorrow morning-hopefully with some sort of slight northwest trend.
  10. wdrag
    I have misled on this one... Definitely need to see a northwest trend of 70 miles on the 00z/4 cycle for ne PA, nw corner CT to get anything more than 1-3" As everyone knows, i see the trend too... big development too late except central and eastern New England. I'll ride out the model sways... but I need to see a nw trend when I wake ups and look at the models tomorrow morning. I do think models are improving even from 10-30 years ago. What we have now are ensembles that help us gauge confidence and that helps many of us.
  11. wdrag
    So... I'll be looking for NAM-EC agreement going forward, with GGEM further nw than previous 00z cycle. IF not, then I favored too far northwest-erroneously.
  12. wdrag
    agreed... still model tracking uncertainty. Example 06z RGEM a little further se than prior version. My guess is where more certainty with WPC collaboration, some sort of issuance will occur late today... again consensus-collaboration. I tend to push it... NWS more conservative (except NHC- I like how they go about long lead time-my view only).
  13. wdrag
    90Left of the 850 LOW...that's a start on max axis (provided cold enough)... nothing has changed since that was uncovered decades ago.
  14. wdrag
    Retired... have a little FB group for hazardous winter wx and the NYC forum. Still have to be careful. My recent sense on modeling... when NAM and EC op are in agreement, that's a good sign for their combined impact. AND.. I want to the have the GGEM sort of close.
  15. wdrag
    Good Thursday morning everyone, (Dec 3), Think it's soon going to be watch time for a HIGH Impact Multiple hazard event in our NYC forum. Topic initial discussion is a baseline start but I have to trend a little stronger confidence on probably more substantial impacts than initially framed. My main question now...track of the surface lows and a little uncertainty on the speed. The 00z/3 cycle has trended northwest and GEFS is coming into much closer alignment with the EPS regarding the developing closed low 850MB-500MB. Power and Snow: It seems to me a significant amount of power outages are in the offing for portions of the I84 corridor, especially high terrain, Saturday from a combination of wet snow exceeding 4" and north or northwest wind gusts of 35-45MPH. Meanwhile, for LI-southern CT, and possibly coastal NJ power outages similar or a bit more than 11/30, would be from initially east-northeast wind gusts of 45-55 mph with a back side burst late Saturday. Wind gusts "may" reach ~65 MPH on eastern LI. That will be my max. Max snowfall in our area: northwest fringe along or north of I84 certainly can exceed half a foot-don't want to get too confident on this yet... we still have tracking disagreement. Some models favor n CT/interior MA and others, I think more accurately, Poconos northeastward to the Litchfield Hills of nw CT- Berkshires. NYC: Snow accumulations may occur at the tail end Saturday night or early Sunday to within 10 miles of NYC, and even NYC could see a flurry or period of wet snow. Flooding: My guess based on MMEFS and the likelihood of 1.5-3" of qpf over the vulnerable NJ basins along and northwest of I95, that flooding will occur on all rivers and streams that occurred on 11/30-12/1 and add a few more rivers. Thunder could occur in our area during rapid intensification Saturday. Did we miss anything? 507A/3
  16. wdrag
    And finally some time to look back... CLE area 10-20" ending predawn this morning.
  17. wdrag
    Caught my attention. Whilst the JMA is so flat and fast, we'd get 1/4" rain at LGA. We've been blessed with excellent lead time signals in the modeling (5+days). This one more like previous winters. By the way, posting in a minute...CLE area had 10-20 ending early this morning.
  18. wdrag
    My last of the evening... I saw the 18z/2 EC... well, if this occurs, it's HIGH impact for our area...probably more than 11/30. Until I see the GGEM/RGEM climb back aboard, I'm going to hesitate and temper. I maintain, no big synoptic scale qpf if the GGEM is not on board. I just don't see the GGEM fail. If anyone else sees it different, let me know. When the GGEM is dry, think twice. Anyway, time for a northward trend in the 00z/3 cycle. With anomalously warm SST along the mid-Atlantic coast, if the short wave does go negative and close off, it would be explosive development and that development has been signaled by the EC/NAM the last several cycles. Exactly where this occurs? Lot's of potential ahead... let's see how much is yielded.
  19. wdrag
    Keep discussiing... I've been off line since 630A (floor install). Have checked some ensembles etc from the 12z cycle and generally a southeastward trend... however, there is time to come back a little. I probably wont comment much more til Thursday morning 630A. I see the 18z NAM looks a little further north and slower on qpf. Think it best to wait this out a bit. For now, I don 't see any worse than what was written in the topic...SST above normal mid Atlantic waters.
  20. wdrag
    Good Wednesday morning, I've no changes to this topic. EC-EPS are far different than the GFS-GEFS. NAEFS leans EPS and that is without the ECMWF members. That tells me the EC needs to weighted heavier than all the models. I still don't want to believe it's that strong when it comse through our area but potent for heavy wet snow it is, for northern PA-central and eastern NYS (except extreme se), and northwestern New England. So, everything stated in the topic is reasonable, I think. Will rereview late today. WPC has some pretty large rainfall for our area (widespread 1.5"-2"). Some of modeling is continuing or adding potential for strong easterly flow ahead of low. Needs to be monitored for the midday Saturday night tide, especially if surface pressure dips below 990MB s of ISP.
  21. wdrag
    From what I can sense through 00z/2 ensembling... it looks like there is going to be a cold intrusion next week into the northern tier with the next large scale storm toward the 14th (after this weekends). After that... no super warming immediately modeled prior to the 16th. However, it is LaNina with AGW. I might be seeing some sort of blocking trying to get going up by Greenland. Unsure if that is going to occur.
  22. wdrag
    Overall, have nothing more to add to this topic. Past two topics give a feel for useful 5+ day advance predictability as the amalgam of model blending is permitting preparations for mitigating adverse weather impacts. Not always but overall, modeling in some patterns is becoming quite good 5-10 days in advance. Just have to use all the tools and ballpark an idea of the future, carefully sharing with the public in a manner that can be reliably helpful. 2/522A
  23. wdrag
    How about this... OH...ne corner, now up 82,000 meters without power... probably 200,000 people. Still snowing pretty good there.
  24. wdrag
    This topic for Friday-Sunday dual event is posted with much lower issuing confidence than the topics of 11/11-15, and 11/30-12/01. There may be several verifiable flood (not flash flood) warnings for rivers-small stream in northern NJ-northwest of I95 by Sunday morning from a widespread 1-2" rainfall, isolated 3" possible. There is a small chance for 45+ MPH gusts. It appears the best chance of verifiable hazards will be along the I84 higher terrain where ice or snow can occur. The ice or snow amounts 3-4 days in the future cannot be counted on to be more than 1 tenth inch glaze or more than 3" of snow, though the option exists for heavier snowfall north of I84. Lead precipitation Friday afternoon and night is associated with a reinforcing cold front. Rain NYC. However the I84 corridor may see some wet snow Friday night? mPING. Saturday: Chilly rain most of the NYC forum, heavy at times with 1-2" general, isolated 3". I84-best chance that there could be some ice Saturday before cooling thicknesses and the rapidly developing low change precipitation to some snow before it ends Saturday night or Sunday morning. mPING may be quite helpful. Winds: Depends how fast the storm develops. If a 998MB low is south of Islip Saturday-then brief northeasterly gusts 40-50 MPH Saturday would be possible on LI and the NJ coast, otherwise I think there may be a better chance of northwest wind gusts 45-50 MPH Saturday night or Sunday morning as the storm moves rapidly past Boston. After further review, I don't think tidal flooding will be a significant threat Saturday. Starter graphics: 6 hr FFG..shows the vulnerable areas. Once yesterdays wave off rising river waters passes Wednesday night, I'll add some small stream guidance-if it applies. Added the 12z/1 GEFS prob of 1". Yellow is up around 75-80% chance. The 12z/1 EPS also has 1-1.5" as does the 12z/1 NAEFS. Final starter graphic is a 52 member NAEFS blend of where the sfc low will be and it's intensity Saturday evening. You'll note the yellow color northeast of the center... that implies greater variability of the pressures there..and could mean that the surface low will be further northeast by Saturday evening. Good luck with this... I hope this topic will produce some verifiable NWS hazards. 521P/1
  25. wdrag
    I'll post a new topic for Friday-Sunday dual event ~5P. Confidence is much much lower than the topics of 11/11-15, and 11/30-12/01. Ensembles are not as favorable for verifiable flood warning, wind advisory or greater, with maybe theist v reification possibilities - the I84 corridor having winter hazards (some ice or snow). Basically, if the 12z/1 EC op didn't do what it did today, I would have held off til tomorrow or beyond, to be more sure.
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