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Last 30 Miinutes: MA POWER. Meter outages jumped from 4 to 18K. Many reports g40 KT now from se MA through srn RI and extreme se CT.

Winds past 3 hrs: max G KGON: Groton/New London, CT, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KMQE: East Milton, MA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KMTP: Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KPVC: Provincetown, MA, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KPVD: Providence, RI, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KPYM: Plymouth, MA, United States [49kt, 25m/s] KUUU: Newport, Newport State Airport, RI, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

Snow amounts: I know our Burlington CT observer. SOLID. I expect power outages to begin ramping up between 2-4P. ORH a minisucle 1200 out now... We'll see where that ends up.

Looks to me like OKX radar is setting up what will probably be the primary bands arcing northward from central LI thru ORH... vicinity Brookhaven I91 in CT thru I84 to ORH. Somewhere along there, there should be a very good snow response. Let us know if any thunder. Thanks.

Wantage NJ, my final rain I think will be 0.51. Sun peeking out. MAX G so far 28 MPH around 1135A.

Excellent reports all: kind of surprised so soon coasts but all the better for highlighting instability and dynamic cooling. Vernon NJ is ahead of me on any snow...am too low and still too warm.

Wow... have to like it.

Think winds have just about maxed NJ coast... they have another hour or so to get to G 40 kt.

Really... better than us in Sussex County...just drove up to High Point. All rain.

10:22 am EST - 12/5/2020GARDNER, MASnow2.0 INCH 10:24 am EST - 12/5/2020HOLDEN, MASnow2.0 INCH

Radra scope viewers... think I'm getting a decent band of snow into e Monroe and Pike counties of PA...at least for elevations. It's narrow, brightening (phase change) and I suspect some 1 mi snow in there. We'll see if and when it crosses NW NJ around 930-1030A.

For the record: Let's see what happens. This is about 815AM power outages nationally... none. Will be curious where we are around 4P.

Adding for the record PRIOR to any problems.

Very good- thanks.

Some of this bright banding... WET-icy snowflakes---greater reflectivity. That tells you a change in precipitation phase for awhile The banding S+ i think may be a little softer but yellow or greater band(s) later on.

Notre on my caution: This is changing faster than I thought at elevation. It may go back and forth for a while but my amounts may be too conservative at elevation... It is going to pound for a while late this morning-afternoon up there.

Increasing reports of snow in the air from Central MA to se NYS higher terrain! This should be a NAM 3K forecast. I think it's the fastest on this. Correct is I'm wrong. Thanks.

Keep us posted on any acscums grass vs pavement. Thanks...

Seems to me...band in far e e PA at 734A I think will be one back band and then a new one will evolve e CT/Central MA midday as the low aloft forms and then drift ne with the closed low this evening to Boston. Am a little nervous about 3"/hr... ratios are so wet. There could be some barking dogs 9A-3PM in CT/LI as I think thunder is soon. Note : 42 kt gust at Ocean City MD Weather flow station and 37 knots at Dewey Beach DE past hour. Coming together fast.

The only reason i dont post in New England sub forum... I wouldn't have time for family day-day and I am Covid furloughed .. once I return to PT work in the spring, my posts even NYC will be far fewer. Just fortunate that we're still in good health. Later..

Let's keep trying to get in the ball park... Cant be absolutely sure on my taker but I like the way things are going. M PING has snow in se NYS (Ulster County). Are those Wachusetts Cameras live??? Two of them look good... if someone can answer that one. Thank you.

Ulster County near Fallsburg... edge of precip shield...snow reported in there air. First sign.

Good morning, Seldom post here. 1) A couple of things. Snow ratios in MA/CT will in my opinion be down to 6 to 1 or something like...falling at 33F. That means half of those 10 to 1 amounts, and I say ditto Kuchera. 2) On NWS collaborated graphics... Need to wait 2 hours for a full complements of updated cycle. Example...the 330A-4A deadlines... wait till the 5A or 6A updated graphics. That way you can be assured of getting their basis information for the the NWS forecast. Here's my take from the NYC forum since I am enthused. Dramatic changes should unfold next 8 hours. Follow local NWS forecasts, statements and your own interp of the models. I am going with the NAM3K and EC. However, realize the HRRRX (X for experimental- not our moderator) is not as robust as yesterday. Now we're in HRRR territory (inside 18 hours, so I'll use the operational HRRR to temper my expectations). GGEM and RGEM are not changing over to snow nearly as fast. So what follows, may be a little on the high side. Please USE NWS as official guidance. mPING will be useful. Banding is developing now and this is going to be a swat for for portions of ne CT and eastern-central MA with thunder by midday and then afternoon bands of 1-2"/hr for a couple of hours-wet snow glop high terrain with valleys much less than elevations (6 or 7 to 1 ratios?). The wind gusts of 45-55 MPH late this afternoon and evening there will, in my non science opinion, make for a major power outages in the high terrain. This is based on my anticipation of minimum 4" of wet snow on trees -wires - road signs combined with increasing wind gusts this afternoon knocking down limbs etc. Note: I could see some ASOS's in the 4+" axis being muted-jammed accumulating wet snow. Anticipating mixing with snow extreme ne PA, NW NJ and Orange County NY northward, 7A-9A with possibly an inch or so high terrain above 1000 feet, trace valleys. NW CT and w MA should mix and change to wet snow around 10A-Noon, central MA and ne CT around Noon-2P and Boston itself may be delayed til 7-9P. Follow local forecasts for amounts in CT-MA...but i can see 5-10" Worcester Hills and 4" parts of the Litchfield and Hartford Counties in CT terrain above 1000 feet with ending there not til mid afternoon, ORH some time evening and Boston sometime after midnight. (EC has 15-18" from what I can see but this may not take into account melting, compacting and snow ratios) se CT I think will see isolated damaging wind gusts near 60 MPH this afternoon. Have fun with this... and I sure hope EC and NAM 3K are right. Otherwise much less impact.

Wantage NJ as of 610A 0.36" so far. Dramatic changes should unfold next 8 hours. Follow local NWS forecasts, statements and your own interp of the models. I am going with the NAM3K and EC. However, realize the HRRRX is not as robust as yesterday. Now we're in HRRR territory (inside 18 hours, so I'll use the operational HRRR to temper my expectations). GGEM and RGEM are not changing over to snow nearly as fast. So what follows, may be a little on the high side. Please USE NWS as official guidance. I'll add some data as time allows later this morning and afternoon and look forward to all your posts. mPING will be useful. Banding is developing now and this is going to be a swat for for portions of ne CT and eastern-central MA with thunder by midday and then afternoon bands of 1-2"/hr for a couple of hours-wet snow glop high terrain with valleys much less than elevations (6 or 7 to 1 ratios?). The wind gusts of 45-55 MPH late this afternoon and evening there will, in my non science opinion, make for a major power outages in the high terrain. This is based on my anticipation of minimum 4" of wet snow on trees -wires - road signs combined with increasing wind gusts this afternoon knocking down limbs etc. Note: I could see some ASOS's in the 4+" axis being muted-jammed accumulating wet snow. Anticipating mixing with snow extreme ne PA, NW NJ and Orange County NY northward, 7A-9A with possibly an inch or so high terrain above 1000 feet, trace valleys. NW CT and w MA should mix and change to wet snow around 10A-Noon, central MA and ne CT around Noon-2P and Boston itself may be delayed til 7-9P. Follow local forecasts for amounts in CT-MA...but i can see 5-10" Worcester Hills and 4" parts of the Litchfield and Hartford Counties in CT terrain above 1000 feet with ending there not til mid afternoon, ORH some time evening and Boston sometime after midnight. (EC has 15-18" from what I can see but this may not take into account melting, compacting and snow ratios) E LI and se CT I think will see isolated damaging wind gusts near 60 MPH while NYC isolated around 45 MPH this afternoon and 35-45 MPH ridges ne PA, se NYS and NNJ. Central NJ coast may see a brief burst of 45-50 MPH around 9 or 10 AM?? that I'm least certain of. 610A/5 Added 3 graphics produced by the NWS this morning in their interoffice collaboration. Please use as a basis.

While the 18z EC is east a bit on qpf in NJ, it sure looks like from its moisture profiles that the previous further west 12z run is going to be more accurate. Here is the 22z HRRR (not the X) and showing a change at elevation in nw NJ at about 9AM... with totals by 11AM. Could be a little high but strong VV, vort max approaching should provide interesting elevation changes around sunrise Saturday.