wdrag

624A/23 - Tuesday: Incorporates modeling of ensembles through 00z/23, and op models through 06z/23. Maintain patience. A significant event is probably coming including some snow for I84 and possibly to NYC's immediate n/w suburbs. EPS/GEFS trending a fairly significant decline in AO/NAO first couple of days in March (think this an EPS concession to the GEFS, as i recall). GEFS has significant snow for the Virginias on the 2nd. That is a sign something is coming, with latitude axis of snowfall in doubt. I favor further north, per NAEFS. Also, the 06z/23 GFS op not given any weight in my thinking since its prediction for the NYC 1000-500MB thickness 06z/2 is 240 m less than the V16. (504 op vs V16 528 for NYC). Sensitivity between northern southern stream interactions is probably messing up solutions and so uncertainty. It either snows a bit late 28, or what i think is more likely is some snow late March 1-morning 2. EC wants to snow the 3rd. Therefore, no change in thread.

Will add CoCoRaHs summary maps for yesterday, late this morning or midday, when time.

543A/23 -Tuesday. Incorporated 00z/23 ensembles and modeling through 06z/23... suggests maintaining some vigilance for a period of Saturday morning snow, probably Trace- as much 4" for the I84 corridor Saturday morning. Multiple modeling has that option. LI/NYC probably rain but may briefly start as wet snow? WPC is trying to keep us dry but i don't think that will work. My concern for a minor snow event are how close to NYC (mainly w of 287?) or possibly a little closer. There will have been a freshening of the cold prior to this pulse of WAA which will be reflected with a small mid Atlantic coastal low. Want to wait this out til the morning of the 24th to be more definitive. Modeling is all over the place and thermal profiles marginal, as so many. No ensemble prob graphic since WPC has little or no qpf (less than 0.10").

Good morning, It's Tuesday the 23rd. Expect a period of snow showers in the nw-ne suburbs toward midday. Elsewhere for NYC/LI & s of I-78, rain or possibly rain/mixed snow showers early this afternoon. No accumulation NYC CP eastward and southward, however 0.1-0.7" possible in a few hilly areas well northwest and north of the city. Essentially harmless, with probably no street hazard, other than what one might expect in a rain shower. This is associated with a strong wave passage. mPing should be somewhat active between 10A-4P.

So, hello again. We don't have to put this thread to bed. Think it will become active again Tuesday with small accumulations of generally 0.1-1" around the city, maybe not in CP? but certainly across NJ and probably se NYS, even CT, and may extend into earlyTuesday night as a strong short wave crosses the region along with a wind shift and considerable drying late Tuesday night (LI increases considerably).

Agreed, especially LI. Our 39.8 isn't too bad. And we're getting some more Tuesday... should be 0.2-1.0".

One impression I have: This has been a super February for the nw-ne suburbs of NY, especially northwest. Take a good look out the window Tuesday morning and appreciate that this might be as good as it gets this season for deep - cold snowpack that has been around for 3+ weeks. I know I've enjoyed this very much and had no idea in Nov-Dec, even early January.

Saw the no changed ranked 0.4" at CP. Very good. Here's a couple of NWS LSR mapped data.

Doesn't look as promising via 12z/22 modeling but also think modeling is a bit muddled. I still am surprised that high pressure comes in so strong on the 25th. 500MB ensemble field to me suggests it's waiting for a short wave passage on the 26th. Anyway, can't outdo the modeling...just am not understanding it very well. Trend is to a minor event on the 27th and negligible but I need to wait this out another day or so. Will reevaluate Tuesday morning. Jus too early to circular file this thread.

As of general 12z/22 modeling: doesn't look as promising for snow on the 28th, daytime 1st. The night of the 1st or on the 2nd, it's possible I84? There are some changes occurring in the modeling with the southern trough dragging a bit. Will revaluate more fully tomorrow morning. Atmosphere needs to figure out what it wants to do. Definitely not cashing in.

Thats what I think as well... Not what i like to see from a top USA city but also logistics of what has changed in the ASOS era. Mostly good with so many more platforms but available personnel-job priorities have changed the process. Also noting that NWS guidelines may be limiting posting of LSR'sd, in part due to staffing and in part due to multiple job responsible cities. Noting OKX so far not posting any amounts under 1.5 or 2" as of about 2P. Thanks Don!

Wantage NJ - this part. 3.2" 32.0F and 3/4s-. wet good snowrolls.

Have yet to see a CP report with mdt to heavy snow preceding the 18z OB and 33F, as well as a pix of lower Mahattan with wet roads but a snow covered first floor sidewalk cover.

All good... thanks for your update. Walt

Snow reports to the NWS as of ~150P. See nothing for NYC CP. Should have something??

Final?? Maybe you're right but Don's stats and pattern evolution allows for more. Let's enjoy everything that we have.

Wantage NJ (this part at 115PM. 2.4" since SB 1055A. All northern Sussex County Roads in nw NJ, snow or slush covered and slippery. Two spinouts that I saw. Plowing in progress. But beautiful again. Sticking to trees. 30.7F after a high of 33.1 at 11AM. ~1/2sm moderate snow in progress. been mostly small flake. densely packed.

Have seen some of the modeling 5th-9th and it's suggestion of more snow in the I84 corridor. No thread this far in advance. Overall trend the first week of March should be milder than normal, especially 3rd onward.

Started this so we can start looking ahead. Modeling has been pretty good on events 7-10 days in advance, just the ptype and latitude of max amounts had been uncertain. Heading into mud season for the countryside, do we see more piling on of the snow, as statistically suggested by Don's February daily posts. If so, can flooding eventually follow over the interior in the still weak (ening) Nina base state.

628A/22: Despite some dry forecasts, my confidence in another snow event is categorical interior and likely coasts inclusive of LI. Have changed the title to Noon Friday (and extended from 6A Sat to Noon Saturday) and simplified the wording. Most of this should be Friday night-Saturday morning. I expect this to be a hazardous event on all untreated surfaces by sunrise Saturday (interior). Am even a little uneasy on the previous low chance >.25" in the title. For now , I see a 1 to possibly 6" snow event for the forum with highest totals, whatever they are, in the interior high terrain-probably ne PA/extreme nw NJ/se NYS Orange County northward. 00z/22 EC changes to rain everywhere, whereas the GFSV16 is further south and ends briefly as rain midday Saturday. Nice competition between the EC/V6 op runs. GGEM sides with the EC though seems slightly colder than the EC. My initial 20th post concerns for Thursday the 25th, seems to have evaporated due to dominance of high pressure arriving behind the southward proceeding cold front. No graphic since WPC's 04z/22 issuance based on older ensembles/op cycles have no precip. One other note i should add: NAEFS says EC probably has a better handle than the colder model solutions. I'm not buying the NAEFS warmth for the interior, at least not at this time. This will be a big test of the GFSv16, soon to be implemented as a replacement for the GFS op (V15).

Am not posting on this thread anymore as have shifted to the new OBS thread for 2/22-23. Agree w the above that it will be looking wild for an hr or two midday.

Good Tuesday morning all, Expect a period of snow showers in the nw-ne suburbs toward midday. Elsewhere for NYC/LI & s of I-78, rain or possibly rain/mixed snow showers early this afternoon. No accumulation NYC CP eastward and southward, however 0.1-0.7" possible in a few hilly areas well northwest and north of the city. Essentially harmless, with probably no street hazard, other than what one might expect in a rain shower. This is associated with a strong wave passage. mPing should be somewhat active between 10A-4P. No graphics today with the graphics below from 2/22. 528A/23 -- Today (22): Advisories posted just w and n of I-95 for a 5 hour period of occasionally heavy wet snow, while snow NYC and possibly all of the forum coasts during midday changes to rain. Exception southern Ocean County - which may be all rain. Snowfall rates of 1-1.5"/hour anticipated for portions of NJ will quickly make treated roads slippery for a time. Isolated ~5" possible part of NJ near and north of I78 with a general 2-4" accumulation in the advisory area though 4" possibly less likely in NYS/CT. This band may spawn isolated thunder in NJ/LI as it models convective in nature. Expect the first heavy burst within 1 hour of onset, then a slight relax followed by another heavy burst, then on the wane it's last two hours. Begins NJ/ne PA/se NYS 10A-NOON, NYC/CT Noon-1P,. Ends about 5 hours after onset. . Snow in NYC CP possible until 2P where anticipate anywhere from 0.2 to 1.4" there , dependent on temps/how quick it changes. Even a slight coating possible all of the forum coasts. Tuesday: Combined Tuesday in this thread only because it's a top 8 February and many members even out to eastern LI should see some sort of snow showers for an hour or two (may be more accumulation e LI Tuesday than today). Snow showers possibly mixed with rain on LI. Many locations Tuesday should receive 0.1 to as much as 0.5" new snow by ~1PM... the showery occurrence primarily during midday. Attached the 00z/22 HPC HREF, the 06z/22 NAM anticipated base snowfall and the NWS regional deterministic snowfall graphic.

NWS regionalized snowfall forecast as issued in their 4PM products, also the HREF in gradations of 1,2,4 (blue shades, green is 6), and the NWS Blend of Models snowfall by 12z/Saturday. That gives enough snow to pop CP close to#5 by then. My guess is that NYC will get an accumulative of 0.2 to 1.4" midday Monday with possibly a little more Friday night-Saturday morning. Probably the much lighter amount (0.2" Monday) but it's timing with the 18z ob and melting the keys to less than the max of 1.4". My feeling it will snow close to a moderate rate by 1230-45PM in NYC. The answer by this time Monday.

Adding on the other thread in 2 min.

Agreed...you called it a couple days ago. I tend to be more conservative on urban... short term attempt at targeting. some have it south of you, others north of you. Yes on the next two gtrheaded events beyond., Right now the V16 has nothing for 28--early 2 but don't think that will last against ensembled increasingly heavy qpf of snow to rain ending as snow. Keeps the interest going.