wdrag
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Everything posted by wdrag
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12z/27 GEFS continues warming above normal 500MB heights ~Aug 5 and gets it going good by the 10th. Also continues two members of a TC beginning 8/10 and advances to near 70W off the E coast. Two members is few and considered outlier, so this may be premature for the Atlantic Basin.
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A copy from this morning July: The 00z/27 GEFS Aug 10 spaghetti shows just two members with a tiny closed low near 60W, advancing nwwd. That for me is the first modeling admission that the Atlantic Basin may be getting ready to fire. Overall it looks to me like it's trying to warm up after the 5th, and especially the 10th onward as the Western Atlantic Ridge builds west and/or strengthens,. That should lead to Bermuda high dominance for us in week two August and maybe beyond?
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First (00z/27) GEFS sign of something significant in the Atlantic Basin. Just two members with a closed low near 60W, advancing nwwd. It's a start. Might be a tad early? but it's better than nothing - if you're looking for TC's in the Atlantic. The WAR via GEFS modeling is westward building beginning the middle of next week and more consistently, Aug 10 and beyond. Don't know for sure. Your's to flesh out via tropical signals.
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Nothing for me to confidently post a useful thread through Aug 10. Today's D! by SPC looks reasonable to me for late today to our N and NW. I did add the 00z/27 GEFS Aug 10 spaghetti showing just two members w a tiny closed low near 60W, advancing nwwd. That for me is the first modeling admission that the Atlantic Basin may be getting ready to fire.
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I have nothing to hang a thread upon through Aug 10. Maybe after Aug 10 it will start warming consistently above normal. I did see the early afternoon update MARGINAL Risk by SPC into the northern part of our subforum for Tuesday evening. For now, am not highlighting via a thread. Will take another look Tuesday morning.
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Few small cells developing at 250PM but will not thread this afternoon-eve. This coming week: Definitely a Thursday of interest but would like another look (00z/26 cycle) before setting up... and may delay that til I see the D3 from SPC Tuesday morning. Enough wind and modeled instab for a possible slice of svr through the NYC suforum. am offline 330P-10P
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only.02 in Wantage early today. NO SPC upgrade in their 846AM D1 update. No thread from myself on this potential.
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As of 835A EDT/25...NAEFS shows no OVERALL dramatic week-two warmup east of the Rockies and the Atlantic Basin shows basically nil in the 00z/25 ensembles through 16 days. Long ranging is difficult (beyond a week) and our thoughts on the modeling interactions can sometimes go awry when the models of one global factor (oscillation) or another unexpectedly changes. Maybe in our lifetimes that there will be new discoveries resulting in improved seasonal outlooking out to 6 months, beyond historic trends in climate - referencing in particular the trend of our slowly warming climate. August is going to be an interesting test here in the northeast... will try to remember to review at the end of the month. Based on the many prior projections in June-July, I anticipate something is going to adjust the pattern enough to reduce the bore factor, add heat and qpf later in August. In the meantime, having fun today.
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No threads from myself: This afternoon seems like I-95 or south of I78, especially central/s NJ for an isolated or sct potentially SVR storm. SPC HREF starts a bit further northwest of I95. Confidence low. Will only react w a thread if SPC upgrades or a watch issues. This coming workweek: Low confidence w best chance Thursday when wind fields aloft are strongest. However, Thursday on the 00z/25 EC OP is not quite as robust as the 12z/24 cycle. Laying low for now.
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RE: Thu July 29 SVR: Monitoring Gust algorithm of the EC...poking 30s knots here in the subforum. That is significant for a non-TC/non Synoptic Scale Winter event...especially 6 days in advance. Will monitor cyclically and see if it holds.
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WAR? Will the Western Atlantic Ridge reassert itself and result in the verification of previous many long range outlooks of above to much above normal temps for August here in the NY area? And if so, when does the Atlantic Basin fire up? I see as of this 7/24 writing that our tropical topic posters seem to expect week two or three of August for activity getting going? SST ANOM's don't look exciting (to me) but these can change. Certainly the + anoms well north of HAT (especially New England) can feed or extend the life of TC's north of Hatteras.
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Winds are there for Thursday, as TT as well... little early to get too committed. Timing might not be quite ideal. I noticed the afternoon outlook hasn't changed for tomorrow- tho some of the modeling is trying to get isolated or sct potentially svr storms going I80 south. So for now, all quiet from myself on the threads.
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No svr thread at this time for Sunday... possible SVR, but marginal instability including late arriving CAPE, and wind fields aloft to 500 MB/TT basically below 30 kt and 49C. Doesn't mean it won't happen but would rather post if SPC D2 or D1 is Slight Risk (not marginal). EC is a little more promising middle of next week with stronger wind fields aloft. Nothing very exciting popping out at me through the first week of August up here. Maybe this will change?
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SPC with a marginal risk for SVR Sunday mainly northern part of the subforum. I like it. Would have started a thread today but for the errant thread on the missed SVR of earlier this week (20th-21st for our subforum. Gives more time to look but suspect will need a thread Saturday morning for Sunday.
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Looking at Sun-Mon potential nw flow event but could be a tweener like yesterday... does have potential but timing timing timing...?? Winds aloft not quite as strong but decent instability to feed upon. For now, low prob for a SVR event in our NYC subforum.
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Seasonable temps for a while and looks kind of dry to me, except for the "Possible" decent brief nw flow convective events with the CFP's. WNW flow events are my favored for big events, especially if big heat in the midwest. So, we'll see how this evolves.
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Looking back: Thread wasn't of any significant help. Didn't verify... except maybe southern most part of our subforum. Tweener between many reports I90 north the afternoon before, and yesterday afternoon. 615A/22
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Activity last night died quickly before getting into the subforum. Follow NWS and the SPC updates. Have not had time to reevaluate since early yesterday,
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Will be monitoring at times during the night being on call. Note that I think the NYS activity is getting ahead of the modeling... faster. also pretty decent cells well out in front to the south. Interesting night ahead NYS and CT and of course now near I90. Walt
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Featuring Severe storms this thread though with wet ground cannot rule out isolated FF where excesses have occurred recently, especially ne NJ...but PW max around 1.4" and a bit faster moving, especially Wednesday, limit the FF potential. Follow modeled (FV3, NAM3K, HRRR, SPC HREF), NWS-SPC outlooks/warnings/stmts and your own takes, obs. TT up into the lower 50s tonight and Wednesday early afternoon. Wind fields a little on the lighter side today so believe svr risk from a dying line of esewd moving sct heavy convection is NYS/CT, maybe with a remnant thunderstorm down to I80-NYC around or after midnight. Should have a refire Wednesday afternoon but where does it grow large enough to be SVR? Probably I95 corridor eastward. NJ coast may end up the most favored area on Wednesday. Check for any changes in the SPC day 1 and 2 outlooks which at 6am has marginal upstate NY today, and then our area Wed.
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SVR thread for 8P-!A se NYS CT dying out I80 near or after midnight then another risk Wed afternoon, entire forum but probably mostly I95 corridor eastward. Will detail a little more around 730A.
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Tuesday night or a bit more likely midday Wed: BAD timing keeps me low profile on this if somehow timing improves, I'd go for a SVR thread. Instab parameters, esp TT are increasing (lower 50's). Down here in our subforum I know it's pushing it for Wed, . but am thinking a bit more about NJ/LI as SVR risk Noon-4P..sort of early in the day & sfc cnv not the greatest look but Marginal risk may need to be added somewhere down in the southern part of the subforum in future projections for Wed. For now continue just monitoring for myself.
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Sun July 11-Mon July 19 Pockets of FF/SVR and a modest heat wave
wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
CoCoRahs 24 hr, thread and monthly totals for those stations that qualify. Will add the monthlies in 5 minutes. and HPRCC % normal for the month not including yesterday,- 382 replies
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Good Sunday morning, As we clear the past week with only residual possible heavy convection north of I84 this afternoon (thread ongoing but probably dead for the most part [11-19])... as noted above, we're heading into a seasonable last two weeks of July..less risk of formidable threats-threads for us. My next consideration: BAD timing keeps me low profile on this but Tue night or Wed, if timing improves, I'd go for a SVR thread (faster moving cold front with better instability and wind parameters for a brief event), but for now no go-just monitoring for myself. Won't start August thread yet, but previously noted by someone, EC EPS seems to favor warmer than normal and wetter than normal in August, and most recent CPC week 3-4 outlook does the same for the beginning of August.
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Sun July 11-Mon July 19 Pockets of FF/SVR and a modest heat wave
wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
This thread may be about done. MAY keep adding if heavy convection develops north of I84 this afternoon, but otherwise will post some CoCoRAHS, 24 hour rainfall, and 11-17 totals, and finally a monthly, where the daily data exists. Am pretty sure CoCoRaHs will not add incomplete dailies which is a drag, when it comes to looking at what there is (at least from what I've seen in weekly monthly checks). For now, have no new threads planned...looking at SVR potential late Tue or Wed but will comment in July section keeping this thread free of that small chance event). Thanks for keeping up with all of this and LI---sorry about little rain even overnight. Your turn comes...sooner or later.- 382 replies
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- flash flooding
- severewx
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