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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
    Updating my previous comment. The 06z EC gives NYC LI- and I95 in our forum 1-2" with close to moderate snow midday. Have little doubt this will happen, provided its snow and not sleet. What is observed at CP is unknown to me but modeling says, more is coming. 11Z HRRR has a break early afternoon then resume late in the day and I like that. Enjoy the probable coming attractions.=, even as it melts on driveways-streets. It's still snow. We have to remember the ;primary trough-baroclinci zone-cold front aloft is still to our west and approaching, Moisture is deep to near 600 MB.
  2. wdrag
    Think it premature to rule out NYC for an additional inch of snow. Long ways to go for NYC/LI/CT. Satellite enhancement and radar upstream to to DCA favors I95 getting some renewed snowfall. In the meantime, Wantage (our part) is only 2.4" with decent steady light snow and 0.6" since 4A. I see decent snowfall up here thru 11A.
  3. wdrag
    Excellent summary of stats above Don, and I like your odds in the next to last pgh, beyond Feb. That may mean keep your generators healthy (for the rural dependent). In the meantime: Have reviewed 25-26th. I think some snow will happen but possibly north of I80 and modeling is so divergent that not enough confidence on my part to produce a useful thread, yet. I like the GGEM onto this... NAVGEM not much, and remaining modeling is a mess, so far. NAEFS has a light event, possibly heavier s of I80. Will review late today, this weekend.
  4. wdrag
    515A/19: Intermittent event continues and precip intensification gradually changes freezing rain/freezing drizzle sleet near I95 eastward to snow. Ending time still the same, this afternoon sometime ne PA/nw NJ/se NYS and the remainder sometime this evening-early tonight. Between 7AM-ending time, I expect a general base 1/2" new throughout the forum after 7am with possibly as much as 3" , the heaviest seeming to be near NYC into CT per a decent band developing this morning-midday, and possibly a nice hour of closing snow this evening. Easy melting process on pavement expected during the midday-afternoon hours where temps above 25F and when snow lessens it's intensity. Manageable but fun for us. I expect scattered flurries Saturday and maybe a narrow band of accumulative snow showers leaking southeastward out of the Catskills-Poconos into the forum per the trough aloft passage with a somewhat moist unstable column. Wantage 0.2" 4A-5A as intensity flake size has increased. 2.0 for now. 22.5F
  5. wdrag
    Wantage NJ (the part). Only 0.4" compacted dense small flake snow since 730P. Total 1.8" (we had no accumulation during the predawn burst north of us on the 18th). That prior accumulation is attached and will be part of the 3 day event summary on Saturday. CP had no change after their 1P report yesterday (per the midnight CLI). 3.2" for the intermittent event, so far.
  6. wdrag
    Wantage NJ (this part). A conservative 1.4" fine snow falling at the 730P report 22F. I think we should watch for IR enhancement seeding the deep moisture for larger flake and heavier snow rates. EC modeling has a pretty good baroclinic leaf developing e PA/NJ tomorrow morning. Without radar indication of precip, or satellite enhancement, then it's just small flake snow, I think.
  7. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 4 1.3" and steady light snow at 530P 22F. rural streets snow covered.
  8. wdrag
    NYC members, think we can muster 2 more inches between the 1PM ob today and 1PM tomorrow? If so, you-we'll be ranked #6 NYC snowiest Feb. 3" is probably asking too much?? Pretty soon we should erode the the sleet part of the NYC sounding (not necessarily at JFK) and go over to periods of snow, of varying intensity through 3PM Friday. Shoot me a notification of NYC amounts, if you think of it, as we cross 7P, midnight, 7A tomorrow NYC CP reports. I may not be online too much tonight. I am expecting another 3-5" here n Wantage by this tomorrow. Maybe I'm too bullish on this but unless flake size is tiny (which i doubt due to deep moisture and oncoming mid level vorticity)...we should have some plowable snow up here by morning. Bring to catch you all down there in CP. By this time tomorrow, we may see two bands of 6+, one where it is now down near I195 (south of I78) and one just to north of I80. Modeling sometimes does a very good job picking up bands. Let's wait it out and see if they were right. Later, Walt
  9. wdrag
    Agreed: btw... I don't want to be too exuberant NYC east and south due to BL temp uwarmth ncertainty, but I do believe if NYC has a decent burst of precip prior to 15z/Monday, there will be slight snow accumulation in the city and I definitely agree nw NJ-Pocs newd along the I84 high terrain for 1-4" I have a lower bound of 1 to allow room for failure. It's possible the upper bound needs to be 5. PCS and high terrain nw NJ. It's an interesting system. So, let's ride it out. Has to be a morning event for snow acc in the city. Little question it's too warm during the mid and late Monday afternoon se of I84 for snow.
  10. wdrag
    Not sure who said that? Only that the cold would soften (my own perception-word). We seem to be in battleground and the Nina base with lack of steadfast blocking to our north that may still yield consistently warmer than normal temps... however, modeling keeps showing digging short waves through the northern tier and a warming southeastern USA. No big storms but little contributions of varying magnitude. Too early for mud season. Also, snowpack to our south may help keep temps down a degree or so from expected, especially interior radiation.
  11. wdrag
    Pending the 00z/19 model cycle/ensembles inclusive of naefs, may begin a thread for a light to moderate wintry event for a portion of the NYC subforum the 25th-26th, that may garner more attention as we move past the messy long duration event in progress. This looks cold enough for snow north of I80, maybe even a bit to the south but modeling will adjust it's targeted latitude. Which way, north or south?
  12. wdrag
    They do? I don't think they fall apart, just adjust latitude and ptype for the NY forum.
  13. wdrag
    Wantage NJ (this part): 3PM report 0.9" all surfaces slippery, including some of the treated routes. 22.5. light snow as this is written, some of the flakes at times moderate sized.
  14. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 1145A 0.5" 21F. Treated roads wet, untreated slippery. flurries began around 330A ended by 6A. steadier SB ~9A. 3/4s- now.
  15. wdrag
    The way those ova look on a map. ~1115A/18
  16. wdrag
    I see them from my house. You say Mahwah 1/2-1" earlier this morning?? wow. Flurries in Wantage
  17. wdrag
    That is the OKX/PHI forecast., We'll see how it works out. Snow and slippery travel is coming to NYC-LI today.
  18. wdrag
    And to dovetail, the regional look adds OKX etc.
  19. wdrag
    Saw the 00z/18 EC OP and 06z/18 GFSv15 and to some extent the 06z/ v16 OP for a snow event NYC forum around the 26th. No thread planned from myself, till late today or tomorrow morning, to get a little bit of consistency and ensemble support.
  20. wdrag
    Looks like some nice bands of potentially moderate snow are aimed toward the forum along and s of I78 to LI this morning. It's snow loading now (saturating down) but soon there should be some 1/2mi moderate snow falling near I195 and maybe I78.
  21. wdrag
    330AM: Wantage NJ, at the nw tip of NJ We too flurries began here around 323A. 22.6/7.2 Notice from mPing snowing into s CT part of the forum as well. Notice NAM about 40% heavier on qpf NYC on its 06z cycle. Just getting up so no feel on what may have changed and is reliable via 00z-06z cycles but snow is at hand. Good news. 450AM: flurries continue. no acc. 21/15. Dewpoint increased 8F since 330A.
  22. wdrag
    I did miss that (color coded) that OKX moved to an advisory only. That might be right despite their 7" forecast for NYC.
  23. wdrag
    Nothing more I can add. I've shown the NWS forecast snowfall. You can see there is hesitancy in the NWS decision regarding the watch, which to me indicates, is it warnable because doubts either of mixed precip not quite reaching warnable criteria, or is the duration too long to meet an 8" snowfall criteria over 24 hours. Minimum snowfall of 3" looks good for the entire forum with a max over the entire event of 8 or 9". So, if it's all snow NYC, we pop to at least top 5 February snowfall at CP (presuming the NWS 7" forecast is within an inch or so). I just see potential for mixed precip to LI and most of NJ, and what about melting as it falls during the increasingly high sun angle midday Friday. Those answers I do not have but attempt to provide some wiggle room on outcomes. I hope it snows to the satisfaction of all members. For me here in Wantage NJ, I look for 5-9" but maybe this range will be too high? This may be the last I comment till tomorrow morning. Have at it.
  24. wdrag
    515A/19: Intermittent event continues and precip intensification gradually changes freezing rain/freezing drizzle sleet near I95 eastward to snow. Ending time still the same, this afternoon sometime ne PA/nw NJ/se NYS and the remainder sometime this evening-early tonight. Between 7AM-ending time, I expect a general base 1/2" new throughout the forum after 7am with possibly as much as 3" , the heaviest seeming to be near NYC into CT per a decent band developing this morning-midday, and possibly a nice hour of closing snow this evening. Easy melting process on pavement expected during the midday-afternoon hours where temps above 25F and when snow lessens it's intensity. Manageable but fun for us. 450AM/18: overall no change in expectations. Might get started an hour or so slower but already flurries or steady light snow have occurred se NYS, ne PA, CT, far nw NJ. See latest NWS products and your own judgement. 548AM added the 4AM NWS regional snowfall expectation that went into their early morning products. An overall manageable 24-36 hour wintry precipitation episode will probably see snow change to a mixed bag in NJ/LI, with even a bit of rain possible for a time eastern LI and the NJ coast. Snow should begin in seNYS/NJ/NYC between 2AM and 7AM Thursday and by 9AM elsewhere. It should snow moderately for a time sometime between 9AM and 4PM Thursday before probably transitioning to mixed precipitation or even quitting for a time in NJ/LI toward Thursday evening. Precipitation may intensify again as it probably changes back to snow everywhere on Friday and then gradually ends from west to east during the afternoon, or early Friday night. Graphics are the 21z/17 NWS ensemble 48 hour prob for 8"+ of snow, 4"+, the 12z/17 SPC HREF snowfall ending 00z/19 = 7PM Thursday, the 5PM/17 actual NWS regional deterministic (approximate) snowfall forecast and the 21z/17 WPC ensemble prob of .01" freezing rain. Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Please contribute as needed.
  25. wdrag
    That is the read... 26-27 and the first week of March. No topics yet, since it's mostly I84 but monitoring via the NAEFS. While the cold softens, and maybe we'll average a bit above normal, models are trending a bit colder the last week of Feb and first week of March, as far as i can tell. Snow pack lingers I84 corridor through at least the 24th from what I can tell.
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