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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    I see Howell NJ had 0.2" accumulation at 1230P. Must be some other acscums in NJ now.
  2. wdrag
    I can see ~1"/hr I-95 sewd but not much more than that due to temp profiles near freezing. Bigger fluffier dendrites I think will be in the colder airmass, unless they get huge in NYC due to aggregation and a slug of bigger qpf heading in there. I definitely expect 2" hr for a few hours this eve e PA/nw NJ and of course advancing northward during the night,
  3. wdrag
    Snow measuring: CoCORAHS guidance is deepest in 24 hours from time it began for storm total (greater 24hrs, clean the board and add whatever hours beyond). However, not all offices do that. I know in Mt Holly, to limit snowmelt and or drifting problems, clean the board every 6 hours. That's what I'll be doing at 845PM tonight. Mat from NJ Climate Center may be commenting-adding on.
  4. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 740' MSL. flurries began 246P. 22/11. Been evaporating aloft past hour, just enough to raise the dew point 1F. Thats the lead dry air suppression.,
  5. wdrag
    It will .. meant it will snow hard.
  6. wdrag
    It will!
  7. wdrag
    Am monitoring a bit now. No further comment on modeling til NWS adjusts whatever they believe they need to. I think what you're all doing, tracking 3K NAM vs HRRR is probably the most important on short range performance.
  8. wdrag
    Have seen 12z/16 EC..enough to keep me thinking ice and packed snow LI/NYC sometime later tonight but it goes back to all snow by 5 or 6AM i think and snows another inch or possibly 2 in the city 7A-9A. I could see snow amounts capping 8-12" inland I-78 I to I195 due to sleet. Also think 1 hr flash freeze (8F temp drop self defined for parts of NYC Monmouth County when the wind shifts to n around 5or 6A 33-25). IF that happens, bad news for bridges and rails. Again, FOLLOW NWS. This is just something the models have been trying to hint at for a number of cycles. One other thing: EC does not have thunder. But per multiple models I see qpf suppression in an area w of I95 and near I78. These things happen in big storms and NOT predictable yet where they will occur. Nothin here yet. 119P and off line til 2PM ish
  9. wdrag
    Hope you're right. Dry slot implied your depiction above which also tells me trouble. . NMM3K too amped? Don't know. NWS I think likes the 3K a lot. I don't have a feel but once the 0 layer more than 25 MB thick (~800 ft above freezing) gets modeled to within 20 miles of you and you don't have strong VV, and/or -8C ice nuclei either available or descending into the dry slot , it's trouble. Models are very good, but imperfect on placement. I'll favor the NAM 3k/HRRR but defer and hope you';re right about colder and I'm wrong. Right now, the zone of uncertainty needs to be briefed as such - clarity about range of impacts.
  10. wdrag
    Agree with everyone on north of GFS/EC cold snowy solutions. Added some 12z HRRR guidance. Near blizzard possible around 03z LGA, but short duration, could be some around 12z in the CAA but again short. The HRRR is very strong on wind and I can see it. NAM 10M has 50kt 10 miles east of Toms River late tonight. I'll add the graphics... from th 12z HRRR they look good to me. Also someone asked about Thunder. As you're probably aware SPC added T to a part of forum. And...the HRRR has a pretty strong signal for such this evening in those high snowfall rates. Snow depth: I like as my answer to what is coming. Use w your own best judgement. Added HRRR MAX gusts. and the 1am projected HRRR simulated radar...note sleet up here.
  11. wdrag
    Wantage 19.8/6.3 (dry). Interesting mPing ob near Reading, PA recently..ice pellets. Tells us it's marginal but it will go to snow on our front end. 924A/16
  12. wdrag
    No time to rereview... I see 0z/6 EC likes a colder scenario near I95. Could happen. The se edge still has to have sleet convert to snow which is incorrect but NYC and I95... I'm uncertain and I dont have all the tools NWS does. Please follow NWS. Appended 06z/16 EC 10 to 1. It says I'm a bit too far nw on my NYS expectations. Use your judgement. Thanks... offline til at least 930A. You'll know by then whether 12z 3K NAM has trended colder nr NYC. To me one bad sign... too much sun 6-8 hrs before an event starts. The classics have a long slow process of thickening and lowering cigs. This tells me an 8 hour front end thump down here then maybe sleet starts I80 LI midnight-2a. Have fun with this. Walt 744A
  13. wdrag
    My thinking is north of I80 between MPO and IPT or I88 region to the northern Catskills for the NYS 20+. You have to be safe wherever, drifts and services including roads may shut down for a time there? Also, check with others herein, NWS updates and TWC, of course updated modeling including the HRRR. I'm doubtful of 20" here in Wantage... can happen but sleet is my concern between midnight and 4AM. You need to be in all powder, better snow rations but modeled 1.5" qpf. Again, this my opinion only and not gospel. Definitely seek other opinions. Let's hope this works.
  14. wdrag
    Good Wednesday morning everyone, I've followed a recent example on the New England forum and offer this topic as a start over at 1PM with obs-nowcasts. The tags included hopefully cover the gamut of potential amounts. If we are certain about daily records being exceeded please add and ditto if we get top 20 at any xmacis climate site. Thank you all for contributing to the excitement-anticipation of a pretty good nor'easter.
  15. wdrag
    543AM 12/16: No change in thinking including uncertainties along I95 which to me means we have a chance to exceed this winter, what will occur NYC-LI-coastal NJ tonight. I just cannot shake the basics: S+ axis is usually 90 miles left of the 850 low and the northern half of the 700MB low and the deformation zone near 500 MB with contribution from the nose of the 850MB 50-65 kt easterly jet (moisture transport). This favors I84 and banding casts northwest to a central PA - east central NY area (roughly IPT-ALB) where 20-25" seem probable within 60 miles of that axis - at least in the high terrain, but must consider mountain shadow lesser amounts in the leeward valleys. There a multiple models showing that axis. In our forum, I think most everyone will see a period of sleet near or after midnight and that the bulk of the snow occurs in a 6-10 hour period prior ~ midnight, but that there will be a tail of moderate to heavy snow toward dawn with still 1-4" after sunrise Thursday on top of whatever occurs before sunrise---the heavier 4" potential ne PA, extreme nw NJ, se NYS and CT {where 5" may occur in 2-3 hours after sunrise Thursday}. Drifts to 4 feet possible ne PA, se NYS and northern CT where 18" accumulates since winds will gust 30-40 Mph at times overnight. NYC CP still 6-10" in my mind but shakey and may be too high because of only 10-1 snow ratios at best, sleet and possibly rain compacting as well as temps near 33F at times during the night. The power outage concerns continue near I95 with 45-50 MPH gusts (9P-6A). Coastal flooding - please see NWS offices for minor or moderate near the time of high tide Thursday morning. Finally, even if it rains or is above freezing w LI and Monmouth/northern Ocean County NJ tonight--- there could be sudden icing near sunrise Thursday when the wind switches from northeast to north and drops temps 5-10F in an hour, and iceing the residue and make travel very hazardous again in leftover new snowfall. Otherwise temps in the I84 corridor ~20-25F throughout the event. Will add some graphics by 6AM on wherever the last page of the thread. NOT a top 20 for NYC...best chance is MPO-POU axis in our forum. This is my last topic update for this event. Will begin a storm accumulation obs (snow/rain/sleet/damaging wind/coastal flooding) and nowcast topic by 6A to begin to be used once the snow begins-which I think will be between 1-4PM in our NJ/PA/w LI part of there forum. Graphics: my last on adding prestorm graphics. NWS experimental severity index, the NWS snowfall forecast for our area as per 5A/16. 00z/16 EPS 10 to 1 snow ratio snowfall--i still think too high se edge and then snow ratios will magnify I84 corridor northwestward NWS probabilistic 6+ and 18+. (Note NYC prob of 6+ is not that high). The 00z/16 SPCHREF gives us a better chance of exceeding 6" but the edges are always shaky. SPC SREF plumes for NYC. Please use all as options and may your expectations verify-just be realistic.
  16. wdrag
    Am comfortable with the topic as updated this morning at 5am and subsequent posts today seeing new guidance through 6PM. Will return in the morning. Basically this is a NWS amounts, phase change timing issues.
  17. wdrag
    HRRR thru 12z Thu: have a look... might be pretty good. Am confident of big snow back to near ALB and n of BGM Borrowed from a modeler elsewhere.
  18. wdrag
    Multiple models near 2" qpf near ALB... take a look. That tells me big banding. Usually does shift unexpectedly far nw... There could be two or 3 bands of 1"+ /hr snow at 4AM Thursday from NYS and ne PA across into SNE... I think our lurker friend from LOT might confirm how unexpectedly far nw these bands can go. Then SHARP SHARP drop off to nearly nil in possibly 60-80 miles north of that 25" IF it occurs as I can see this somewhere near ALY. Idea...most of the Adirondacks may have nothing for less than 2".
  19. wdrag
    Hope you're right. Wind may be 050 degrees but it's still off LI sound. I'll go for 31-33F by midnight Wed night. I see wind damage here and there for LI and coastal NJ. When the wind changes to 020 toward sunrise, should drop into the 20s NYC BUT, i stand to be corrected. Let me know tomorrow night (If I can stay awake). No one should be surprised by the mesoscale modulation of snowfall... I can see one spot 8" say NYC, 2" MTK, 16" HPN or POU or BDR...but with large variations as the bands set up. I'm definitely good for tow 25" bullseyes...one in PA and the other somewhere near ALB or even back to n of BGM.
  20. wdrag
    No changes for me in expectations based on the 12z model cycle. The sleet profile is marginal and strong VV at the time of it's impingement could keep it S+ til a mesoscale dry slot temporarily shifts ne along and e E of I95 later Wed night. I still think sleet up to I80. Power outages look like a big problem to me NYC-PHL NJT corridor wherever wind gusts 40-50 MPH and 6+ wet snow at 32-33F. That's a challenge to forecast. I'll be curious. Drifting to 4 feet I think is a possible problem wherever more than 18" of snow falls. (no rule of thumb for me on drifts). e LI might not exceed 4" snow??
  21. wdrag
    I agree 100% - for NYC this could be an 8 hr snow blitz, sleet/rain/freezing rain after midnight for a while then back to snow by sunrise with 25-0F air lurking in CT to swoop south during the morning as the low track and ppp falls shift e of ISP longitude. Think its a heckuva a mess NYC.
  22. wdrag
    SPC HREF: may a bit cold se edge but this is the snow amount from this model by 7AM Thursday, with I think 1-3" after that...maybe 4" in n CT. Legend has the numbers. NYC 6-8? MPO 21. Looking good for a top 20 storm there and the model qpf and NAM banding suggest seoncafry band big snow east central NYS (two separate 20-25" bullseyes one in PA and one IN NYS).
  23. wdrag
    Results via CoCoRAHS yesterday - my non CoCoRAHS in Wantage was 0.9" I hear Randolph NJ had at least an inch... my senior softball practice group cancelled todays practice due to snow cover. We still have a 0.5 to 0.8" left. Updated maps provided 250PM.
  24. wdrag
    comes the territory--- they are paid and I know they like the challenge and reward. I did.
  25. wdrag
    That seems reasonable... Maybe some of the office AFD's will talk about snow ratios. If you have BUFLIT, I think you can look at ratio's there. Also, there may be some blended 6 hourly atio product out there, but for now... ??? You've got it
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