wdrag

Friday morning 625 AM update: 1201AM-10AM Saturday (27th). Not anticipating an obs thread since the percentage of members involved (seeing snow/sleet) looks to be rather small. Just tag it on here, whatever might occur. A 1-4 hour period of showery wet snow-sleet will probably occur across the I-84 corridor early Saturday inclusive of nw NJ, ne PA northeastward. There even could be spotty freezing rain? Minor-short duration impact, at worst, reserved primarily higher terrain where an inch or 2 is possible in the Poconos. Elsewhere for the I84 corridor, inclusive of nw NJ, expect a Trace-3/4"; A quick change to rain occurs shortly after onset, except that change to rain in the Poconos and northwest hills of CT may not occur til ~ 10AM Saturday. Melting all surfaces once the change to rain has occurred. Most may not notice the snow if sleeping.

Good morning everyone, Feb 26: My expectations on two on-going threads. 1201AM-10AM Saturday (27th). Not anticipating an obs thread since the percentage of embers involved (seeing snow/sleet) looks to be rather small. A 1-4 hour period of showery wet snow-sleet will probably occur across the I-84 corridor early Saturday. There even could be spotty freezing rain? Minor-short duration impact, at worst, reserved primarily higher terrain where an inch or 2 is possible in the Poconos. Elsewhere for the I84 corridor, inclusive of nw NJ, expect a Trace-3/4"; A quick change to rain occurs shortly after onset, except that change to rain in the Poconos and northwest hills of CT may not occur til ~ 10AM Saturday. Melting all surfaces once the change to rain has occurred. Most may not notice the snow if sleeping. Late Sunday the 28th-Monday March 1: I84 corridor. Uncertain but probably not a significant problem. Complex rain (spotty ice) possibly end as snow event. Any icy weather Sunday evening the 28th is reserved for the Poconos. Precipitation may end briefly as snow the rest of I84 corridor Monday morning March 1? So far, models say proceed with normal life with significant wintry weather unlikely. Monday night March 1 I-84 corridor---near midnight: A strong cold frontal passage may be accompanied by a dusting to 1/2" of snow. If this occurs, the sudden drop in temps with the snowfall would make it slippery. March 3-6: Uncertain modeling continues to suggest a wintry event that may include several inches of hazardous snow for the I84 corridor northward? Some models have no storm, so nothing to be sure of.

Yes, but no threading for me, as of 12z/25 modeling including multiple ensembles. EPS continues though not quite as much snow as previous. The NAO transitions seem to be associated with storminess. GGEM/GEPS are onto it. GEFS doesn't have much, yet. Waiting it out and to see also 2/27 and 2/28-3/1. Temps this time of year and per NAEFS suggest elevation dependent mainly NE&NW suburbs.

Hi! Not yet starting a thread for March 3-6, but add this EPS snowfall by midnight Friday night, as a tease. IF the EPS can maintain this in its 12z/25 cycle, this and the GEFS continues gravitating to a pretty decent east coast trough next week, then would begin a thread. For now, resides in March. IF the EPS loses 2" of snow or more, then will forego. I am aware we have open ended uninteresting threads for most here in our forum, Feb 27 and Feb 28-29, so am cautious. This for me is a change in the EPS thinking in the 00z/25 cycle.

Added at 808AM/25 - this 06z/25 EC op image for 2PM Sunday... take it fwiw... matches my interest in this entire two day period. This is a restart. We'll see what gives in future modeling.

Interesting for those of us distant nw suburbs Sunday afternoon. Probably a non factor but sort of fits what has been intermittently modeled the past week or so.

Ah, my mistake: Sunday morning you're probably good. I misunderstood. my error. Saturday morning early is snow there. Sunday... you're probably good but I know others that have plans that way, and I'm not entirely convinced of no ice there on Sunday, but for roads, not a factor. If it indeed does ice a bit on Sunday the 28th. Sorry bout that misunderstanding on my part. I am certain it will at least rain on Sunday, so normal cautions on wet roads. Added at 808AM/25 - this 06z/25 EC op image for 2PM Sunday... take it fwiw... matches my interest in this entire two day period. This is a restart. We'll see what gives in future modeling.

730A/Thursday the 25th: 3AM - 10AM Saturday (27th), a 1-4 hour period of wet snow will probably occur across the I-84 corridor west of Hartford early Saturday. Possible minor short duration impact at worst, reserved primarily higher terrain where an inch or 2 is possible before a change to rain around or after 10AM Saturday and then melting all surfaces. Most may not notice the snow if sleeping. No obs thread, unless modeling shifts a little closer to NYC (within 10 miles).

Thursday morning (25) 659AM update: Modeling and WPC is coming up on qpf for Sunday and there may be lingering Monday morning at the least. I have not crossed this thread off as a bust for the I84 corridor. No excuses. I still think it's on the boards and what I do think I know is that decent qpf is coming the 28th. Late Sunday the 28th-Monday March 1: I84 corridor. Uncertain but probably not a significant problem. A complex rain (spotty ice) possibly change to snow event. Any wintry weather Sunday evening the 28th is reserved for the Poconos. It could spread across the rest of I84 corridor by Monday morning March 1, but for now models say proceed with normal life. As you know, GFS modeling is drifting away from its excessive cold outbreak Monday night and leaves the door open for a little more than meets the eye (so far). I might be completely wrong for this period, regarding a wintry event occurrence but the door for me, is not yet closed.

I think this starts aroud 3AM in the Poconos and changes to rain there by 9AM. Should be less than a 6 hour event. EPS/GEFS say an inch. Depends on qpf intensity but it does look a little interesting there for a decent burst 5-7A.

Good Thursday morning everyone, Feb 25: Am running 45 minutes late. Focus is the I84 corridor As a friend said yesterday, winter's back is broken. No large scale hazardous wintry events foreseen through March 2nd. However...3AM - 10AM Saturday (27th), a 1-4 hour period of wet snow will probably occur across the I-84 corridor west of Hartford early Saturday. Possible minor short duration impact at worst, reserved primarily higher terrain where an inch or 2 is possible before a change to rain around or after 10AM Saturday and then melting all surfaces. Most may not notice the snow if sleeping. No obs thread, unless modeling shifts a little closer to NYC (within 10 miles). Late Sunday the 28th-Monday March 1: I84 corridor. Uncertain but probably not a significant problem. A complex rain (spotty ice) possibly change to snow event. Any wintry weather Sunday evening the 28th is reserved for the Poconos. It could spread across the rest of I84 corridor by Monday morning March 1, but for now models say proceed with normal life. As you know, GFS modeling is drifting away from its excessive cold outbreak Monday night and leaves the door open for a little more than meets the eye (so far). I might be completely wrong for this period, regarding a wintry event occurrence but the door for me, is not yet closed. March 3-6: Uncertain modeling is gravitating toward an event that may include several inches of hazardous snow for the I84 corridor northward. Timing etc? No thread. EPS like's it. GEFS seems to be drifting in that direction. NAEFS noddy yet responding. 652A/25

Yesterdays (2/23) wet snowfall, much of it melting as it fell to the ground, except highest elevations.

Wednesday morning 655AM update: Title remains unchanged. May need to add a bit of ice for the interior in future reviews. Multiple model ensemble reviews of the 00z/24 cycle and 06z/24 GFS and V16 op reviews. Late Sunday the 28th-Monday March 1: I84 corridor. Still uncertain. A complex potential significant rain to snow event. Any wintry weather Sunday evening the 28th is reserved for the Poconos. It could spread across the rest of I84 corridor by Monday morning March 1 with significant hazardous high terrain accumulations of several inches I84 itself northward, while much less impact in the valleys below 700 feet elevation (Hartford, Poughkeepsie, Scranton). A shot of notably cold air follows Monday night (but not the GFS op ferocity which doesn't have much support). This for me is the 00z/24 consensus from NAEFS and 06/24 V16. Definitely not buying the GFS powerful cold shot preempting an event. I could be wrong but I see enough cold air seeping into the backside of whatever comes out of the Ohio Valley to make for a snow risk. It could even snow down to LI/I78 at the tail end (low chance for now, but a window that needs to remain open). It's complex and details remain tbd. It's possible I've read too much into this thread?? Considerations include WPC continues rather dry and very little wintry weather risk.

Good Wednesday morning Feb 24, Have posted nw suburbs thread since this nuisance negligible event appears focused for only high terrain of an inch or so Saturday morning before a change to rain/melting. Might provide a bit of a minor slippery slushy hazard untreated surfaces before sunrise Saturday nw of I287, i.e. nw NJ hills/ne PA Poconos and interior se NYS toward the Catskills, and possibly Litchfield County, northern Fairfield County CT. Small possibility of an obs thread if snow occurs as some modeling tries to do to within 10 miles of NYC, but for now... not counting on that thread. This one would suffice, if this does minor snow occurs. Probably good to monitor NAM/RGEM cycles for consistent trends-if any. And the GFSv16 too, if you have access thru Pivatol Weather. V16 may be available elsewhere? If so, please share. COD?

Good Wednesday morning everyone, Feb 24: The 00z-06z/24 impressions regarding on-going threads but think focus has to be primarily the I84 corridor. No graphics. No large scale 6+" snowstorms foreseen through March 2nd, and possibly through March 11. Saturday morning (27th). A period light snow will occur across the I-84 corridor west of Hartford (including se NYS) early Saturday. Possible minor short duration impact at worst, reserved primarily higher terrain where an inch or 2 is possible before a change to rain after 10AM Saturday and then melting all surfaces. Late Sunday the 28th-Monday March 1: I84 corridor. Still uncertain. A complex potential significant rain to snow event. Any wintry weather Sunday evening the 28th is reserved for the Poconos. It could spread across the rest of I84 corridor by Monday morning March 1 with significant hazardous high terrain accumulations of several inches I84 itself northward, with the valleys below 700 feet elevation much less impact (Hartford, Poughkeepsie, Scranton). A shot of notably cold air follows Monday night.

Wantage at 740'MSL Nice snow this morning but only T. Melted as it fell to the ground. 34F. Roads wet.

The CoCoRaHs snowfall. May be a little suppressed se edge where rain was involved?? and in overall slight settling of the wet snow pack since snow ended late yesterday and some of these obs may only be 1x/day per life. There was some offshore lightning late yesterday.

3/4S- in Wantage. Roads wet. SB 955A. 34/30.

624A/23 - Tuesday: Incorporates modeling of ensembles through 00z/23, and op models through 06z/23. Maintain patience. A significant event is probably coming including some snow for I84 and possibly to NYC's immediate n/w suburbs. EPS/GEFS trending a fairly significant decline in AO/NAO first couple of days in March (think this an EPS concession to the GEFS, as i recall). GEFS has significant snow for the Virginias on the 2nd. That is a sign something is coming, with latitude axis of snowfall in doubt. I favor further north, per NAEFS. Also, the 06z/23 GFS op not given any weight in my thinking since its prediction for the NYC 1000-500MB thickness 06z/2 is 240 m less than the V16. (504 op vs V16 528 for NYC). Sensitivity between northern southern stream interactions is probably messing up solutions and so uncertainty. It either snows a bit late 28, or what i think is more likely is some snow late March 1-morning 2. EC wants to snow the 3rd. Therefore, no change in thread.

Will add CoCoRaHs summary maps for yesterday, late this morning or midday, when time.

543A/23 -Tuesday. Incorporated 00z/23 ensembles and modeling through 06z/23... suggests maintaining some vigilance for a period of Saturday morning snow, probably Trace- as much 4" for the I84 corridor Saturday morning. Multiple modeling has that option. LI/NYC probably rain but may briefly start as wet snow? WPC is trying to keep us dry but i don't think that will work. My concern for a minor snow event are how close to NYC (mainly w of 287?) or possibly a little closer. There will have been a freshening of the cold prior to this pulse of WAA which will be reflected with a small mid Atlantic coastal low. Want to wait this out til the morning of the 24th to be more definitive. Modeling is all over the place and thermal profiles marginal, as so many. No ensemble prob graphic since WPC has little or no qpf (less than 0.10").

Good morning, It's Tuesday the 23rd. Expect a period of snow showers in the nw-ne suburbs toward midday. Elsewhere for NYC/LI & s of I-78, rain or possibly rain/mixed snow showers early this afternoon. No accumulation NYC CP eastward and southward, however 0.1-0.7" possible in a few hilly areas well northwest and north of the city. Essentially harmless, with probably no street hazard, other than what one might expect in a rain shower. This is associated with a strong wave passage. mPing should be somewhat active between 10A-4P.

So, hello again. We don't have to put this thread to bed. Think it will become active again Tuesday with small accumulations of generally 0.1-1" around the city, maybe not in CP? but certainly across NJ and probably se NYS, even CT, and may extend into earlyTuesday night as a strong short wave crosses the region along with a wind shift and considerable drying late Tuesday night (LI increases considerably).

Agreed, especially LI. Our 39.8 isn't too bad. And we're getting some more Tuesday... should be 0.2-1.0".

One impression I have: This has been a super February for the nw-ne suburbs of NY, especially northwest. Take a good look out the window Tuesday morning and appreciate that this might be as good as it gets this season for deep - cold snowpack that has been around for 3+ weeks. I know I've enjoyed this very much and had no idea in Nov-Dec, even early January.