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I am unsure what will happen, but the pattern from then 7th on said, something wintry would occur here. Modeling can't get a consistent grasp. I sometimes wonder about sensitivity to different interactions and that at least in the ensembles and LR ops beyond 5 days, that some sort of dampening needs to be applied to the physics or the chaos is too much. Again, I don't know and this still could be a bust. The uncertainty is the flag not top lock in on anything.

We'll see what future modeling brings, but seems like the heavier trends are coming to the forum via 12z/14 guidance. If the 12z/14 GFSv16 is right, there will be an OBS thread for measurable NYC/LI and up to 5" nw of the city (even the ICON is hitting the Catskills decently).. Modeling for the mid Atlantic on this coming event has been highly variable...disconcerting and so I am unsure of the ultimate solution. Will be interesting to see everything late this afternoon tomorrow as we draw closer.

May be worthy to keep an eye on Friday the 19th. Seems as if n and w suburbs might get some accumulation but model uncertainty (outside the wet 1/2" qpf of both 00z/14 GEFS/EPS) continues.

707A EDT:Looked back on the original post of the 7th... seems like we may be onto something, but considerable model uncertainty, which tells me nothing big and impact minor, as always intended, but at least, I think, targeting the NYC subforum with a wintry event. In checking back the snow snow shower threat for the 14th was introduced on the 9th. Wind driven dustings of flurries I84 corridor with maybe a spotty half inch or so? (far N CT & Pocs). Wind gusts midday-this afternoon similar to those of early Saturday, maybe a touch higher with isolated power outages---generally 40-50 MPH. (I missed forecasting the gusts of early Friday where we in Wantage had 43MPH-320A). No OBS thread anticipated since trees not leaved. Can post obs in March 2021, unless you wish an obs thread for the midday-afternoon wind. Just let me know. Tuesday evening-Noon Wednesday: I78 northward to I84 (Tuesday night-Wednesday morning). Looks like (not guaranteed) a period of snow and possibly ice. If snow, generally an inch or less (spotty 2" possible high terrain?). iI ice, it would be minor but hazardous for untreated surfaces during the Tuesday night hours. For NYC-LI: same old uncertainty. EC for at least 3 cycles continues to insist on light snow with potential for a few tenths? I don't know. I am aware the the EC overall was always driest well in advance and also much slower to arrive (apparently handling the Rockies closed low much better than the GEFS/GEPS). Now am seeing some "possible" minor intensification of the short wave crossing our area early Wednesday. Anyway, road impacts should be negeligible except high terrain untreated's at night.

Just a quick note for the nw-n suburbs (I84 corridor). Relatively small events today, Tuesday-Wednesday morning and around Friday. Spring forward today: wind driven dustings of flurries I84 corridor with maybe a spotty half inch or so? (MA, Pocs). Wind gusts midday-this afternoon similar to those of early Saturday, maybe a touch higher with isolated power outages---generally 40-50 MPH. (I missed forecasting the gusts of early Friday where we in Wantage had 43MPH-320A). No thread anticipated since trees not leaved. Tuesday evening-Noon Wednesday: I78 northward to I84 (Tuesday night-Wednesday morning). Looks like (not guaranteed) a period of snow and possibly ice. If snow, generally an inch or less (spotty 2" possible high terrain?). iI ice, it would be minor but hazardous for untreated surfaces during the Tuesday night hours. Friday (19): I78-I84 corridors: A decent event of rain and snow. The snow fall is questionable but should be monitored for some possible impact, especially I84 high terrain.

Maybe WY/CO utilized too much of the energy, so despite the short wave crossing our forum directly ~ Tuesday night, this thread will probably have been a waste of time. Modeling has dried up. Multiple 00z/13 ens and few models give us spotty light snow (or ice) Tuesday or Tuesday night but can't see this being a hazard now. In case it does the long odds minor snow measure in NYC, this might be the last decent chance of measurable snow in the city, associated with a -NAO? So, while the door seems to have closed, still worth a look once a while. In the meantime, a few flurries (unstable lapse rates associated the cold core aloft sweeping south through New England) seem possible in much of the forum Sunday (14th), with scattered dustings in ne PA, CT, se NYS.

A few reports of max wind gusts 40KT or greater between roughly 2A-450A March 13, 2021 Haven't seen any LSR's yet but am sure there will be a few. My max gust in Wantage NJ was 37 KT (43 MPH). Also appended recent Mesonet graphics from NYS and NJ. KBAF: Westfield, Barnes Municipal Airport, MA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KBDL: Windsor Locks, Bradley Intl Arpt, CT, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KBED: Bedford, Hanscom Field, MA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KCEF: Chicopee Falls / Westover AFB, MA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KEWB: New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KEWR: Newark, Newark Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KFIT: Fitchburg, Fitchburg Municipal Airport, MA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KFOK: Westhampton Beach, NY, United States [48kt, 25m/s] KGON: Groton/New London, CT, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KHPN: White Plains, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KHWV: Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KLGA: New York, La Guardia Airport, NY, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KMPO: Mount Pocono, PA, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KMQE: East Milton, MA, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KORH: Worcester, Worcester Regional Airport, MA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KPSF: Pittsfield, Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KPVD: Providence, RI, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KPYM: Plymouth, MA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KSWF: Newburgh / Stewart, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KTAN: Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

648A/12: Lots of words and uncertainty for a potential modest wintry event. This should be a bit simpler by now. 00z-06z/12 GFS series is the only primary operational model holding onto a wintry event while most other operational models have dried up. That modeling disparity is not a good sign for an event as we draw closer to whatever transpires. I do have some doubts about how this works out. By 430PM (2130z/12) this afternoon, you'll have a pretty good idea via the 84 hour NAM whether the GFS is out to lunch by checking the leading edge of whatever the NAM has against the predictions of the GFS. For now, I think the 12z/12 84 hr NAM has to have leading edge close to CLE-PIT, and the 18z cycle something to BWI-AOO at 84 hours, and the RGEM has to pick it up as well. If not, then prospects for the GFS solutions are probably evaporating and this c(w)ould be a wasted thread-busted expectation. Of course the 12z/12 volatile EC will be available. It's possible the dry air associated with cold surge Sunday-Monday will evaporate the oncoming warm front- vort max associated wintry precip, as the decaying Midwest short wave shoots into the confluence zone here in the northeast. GEFS and even the EPS have a nice RRQ of the upper level jet pulling for us, with weak 850 WAA but lack a little punch on the LFQ of the upper level jet near 35N latitude. 00z/12 GEPS and 00z-06z GEFS continue with modest qpf and relatively cold, so that 2-8 hours of snow-sleet is modeled coming for most of the NYC subforum Tuesday, including NYC-LI with a base snowfall near 1" (potential 4-5" highest elevations of I84 but that is completely qpf dependent). It should begin ~6A western NJ/se NYS, maybe 8A-Noon NYC/CT. It would then end as rain LI-NJ Tuesday night-early Wednesday along and s of I80 but possibly as freezing rain I84 corridor. Again, my assessment is predicated on ensembles of GEFS/GEPS. It's not big but it appears to me to be the best wintry option for NYC the next week or so. The back-back (18-19 second event) is even more uncertain with respect to wintery elements and if there are back-back snow-ice events, I think best chance I84 corridor, which does not guide me to a thread, since 18-19 currently doesn't have big snow prospects for NYC metro.

You may get your wish. No thread (yet) but V16 has a stripe of 3-7" across I84 corridor by 21Z/19 including 2-5" 16th and another batch 18-19. The massive snowstorm on the 12z/11 GFS is probably not likely, but decent wet snow possible, maybe even NYC if we can hold the -NAO long enough. So, back to backs possible I84. 57,59, 67 the past 3 days here at 740'MSL in extreme nw NJ No, a Trace doesn't cover the open to sun ground, but the woods might qualify for a T. Still swaths of 1-2" in the sunny open ground.

I think we need to focus on 3/15-16, more qpf and sooner than some of modeling. GEPS 2m temps at 18z/15 and 16 look quite cold and certainly colder than any previous GEPS modeling. This also fits the colder NAO phase. GEFS has moved confluence north, at least temporarily, so to me, there is no doubt about an event and the focus now is I78 northward, but just how much front end is wintry and how soon it arrives Tuesday are my uncertainties. My last impressions on this til tomorrow morning, at the earliest. Hopefully subsequent modeling comes together = snow/ice to rain for the forum on Tuesday the 16th, ending early 17th.

No plans for 3/18-19 thread (after reviewing ensembles). 12z/11 GFS ops don't have much support from other ensembles and the member that produced the big snowstorm was an outlier (today). I think we need to focus on 3/15-16, more qpf and sooner than some of modeling. GEPS 2m temps at 18z/15 and 16 look quite cold and certainly colder than any previous GEPS modeling. This also fits the colder NAO phase. GEFS has moved confluence north, at least temporarily, so to me, there is no doubt about an event, just how much front end is wintry and how soon it arrives Tuesday. My last impressions on this til tomorrow morning, at the earliest. Hopefully subsequent modeling comes together = snow/ice to rain for the forum on Tuesday the 16th, ending early 17th.

Two things: V16 is not necessarily better than the GFS op. I know it's going to be implemented on the 17th. It is another member. fwiw: modeling... a few times in the past 4 days, has been trying for back-backs snows in the forum (15-16, 18-19). I know a lot of folks are down on 15-16, but just as the 18-19 (not threaded yet), think it good to check ENS and 500MB pattern. -NAO is when best to go for snow here (thats the 16th with a possible last gasp snow the 19th as the NAO starts rising?). So, on 15-16... and a possible future threaded 18-19 (that work will probably preclude being able to follow up very much-except evening), ENS trends are helpful. For the 15-16 event... watch the confluence zone and track of primary vort max. There will be pretty strong 850 inflow ahead of the 500MB vort, and into the confluence zone. That's all I can say right now: I am monitoring confluence zone trends.

fwiw: modeling... a few times in the past 4 days, has been trying for back-backs snows in the forum (15-16, 18-19). I know a lot of folks are down on 15-16, but just as the 18-19 (not threaded yet), think it good to check ENS and 500MB pattern. -NAO is when best to go for snow (thats the 16th with a possible last gasp snow the 19th as the NAO starts rising?). So, on 15-16... and a possible future threaded 18-19 (that work will probably preclude being able to follow up very much-except evening), ENS trends are helpful. For the 15-16 event... watch the confluence zone and track of primary vort max. There will be pretty strong 850 inflow ahead of the 500MB vort, and into the confluence zone. and on 18-19... i think that's purely ensemble suggestive at this point. I think it will deserve a thread either late today or tomorrow, that one also probably a wait and see. Also, I check the CFS every cycle. These events, especially the 19th, were at one time modeled by the CFS

I'm looking at large patch 1-3" snow depth to start at sunrise here in Wantage, other areas fully melted. Still need boots to trod around the yard.

Monday - Wednesday (15-early 17): Snow-ice probably ending as rain for a large chunk of the northeast USA. Snow develops sometime Tuesday and ends by sunrise Wednesday either as ice or rain. Too early to lock in snowfall but my guess: I84 anywhere from 1" minimum to a low chance of a much as 7" for a few high terrain locations. Models still uncertain on developments but something wintry is coming. EPS is the only ensemble less than 1/4" w.e. qpf now, and this was followed by WPC on the their overnight shift which has basically nothing for I84. So uncertainty continues but from my perspective snow to ice is an 80-90% chance of occurrence for the suburbs w-n NYC, in part by the -NAO. NYC, barring BL warming, I see a pretty good chance of snow or sleet to start on the 16th. Please see attached 06z/11 GEFS ensemble 500MB for 18z/Tue-16 and 06z/Wed-17 with confluence to our north and nice short wave heading into the mid Atlantic. I like this look and presuming it holds (still spaghetti uncertainty in the members- tho I don't think south bears the brunt of there snowfall anymore except VA's highest terrain).

Agreed - ditto here. am at 60.3" (if I measured reasonably accurately). I think you/we get some more 18-19, and then possibly again 22-23. Thereafter, NAEFS suggests warming and struggles for wintry weather returns to our subforum excepting robins (1" max) snow, but i haven't studied LR MJO etc, for which we should informed by others hereon regarding the chances of favorable indices for another surge of winter in early April. Right now, CFS looks pessimistic after the 23rd and not putting much stock in the 00z/06z cycles snow events this far south, after the 23rd. Let's see what we can muster Tuesday.

Good Thursday morning, March 11, Below was my take for a few FB friends along I84 northward. Sunday EDT change and flurries (except small accumulation Adirondacks), then modest wintry episodes next week M (15)-early W (17)and again Th-Fr 18-19. Monday - Wednesday (15-early 17): Snow-ice probably ending as rain for a large chunk of the northeast USA. I84 corridor: Snow develops sometime Tuesday and ends by sunrise Wednesday either as ice or rain. Too early to lock in snowfall but my guess: I84 anywhere from 1" minimum to a low chance of a much as 7" for a few high terrain locations. Models still uncertain on developments but something wintry is coming. EPS is the only ensemble less than 1/4" w.e. qpf now, and this was followed by WPC on the their overnight shift which has basically nothing for I84. So uncertainty continues but from my perspective snow to ice is an 80-90% chance of occurrence for the suburbs w-n NYC, in part by the -NAO. Please see attached 06z/11 GEFS ensemble 500MB for 18z/Tue-16 and 06z/Wed-17 with confluence to our north and nice short wave heading into the mid Atlantic. I like this look and presuming it holds (still spaghetti uncertainty in the members- tho I don't think south anymore). Thursday-Friday (18-19): I80 northward including I84: More hazardous snow accumulation expected but may change to rain. 656A/11 posted 742A/11 Interior NW & NE Burbs 2021 - Page 29 - New York City Metro - American Weather.webloc

My guess is your's as well. That's the season. If you get 4", I think you'll have an inch leftover before the next one. I cant say for sure how much we'll get, tho I think minimum is 1" for I84.

I'll post additional impressions around 745A. Running a little late (slept in). As I see it... game on... if these models can finally hold serve as intended when the thread started. Even NYC might see a bit of snow. IF, in the future, all this fritters to minuscule under 1" amounts of snow and only n and w of NYC, then this thread will hold for OBS/NOWCAST. That's me thinking downside. As of now, 00z/11 UK/EC ops trying for a hazardous snow event n of I80 (hills best for road acc at this mid March sun angle). I just haven't caught up yet with ensembles etc. At least now, the models are agreeing on an event of sorts directly NYC subforum, with a period of extensive ice/snow potential interior NC- New England, mainly nw of I95. 604A/11

00z-06z/10 modeling continues all over the place. In essence, I've no significant change to this thread. Something wintry is coming. EC looks too slow and both EPS/GEFS 500mb patterns shoot the decaying Midwest short wave across the area later on the 16th. I expect that snow-sleet will overspread from the west, much of the I95 corridor from Baltimore to New Brunswick, then on the 16th while changing to rain south of I78, overspreads the remainder of the forum by late in the day. How long the snow-sleet before a change to rain (except ice se NYS/CT/extreme nw NJ)? This should be the first of two or three foreseeable wintry events opportunities for the subforum though the last two should be mostly I84 corridor (18-19, 22-23). My guess, if NYC is to get some snow, it has to be with this first opportunity (Tuesday the 16th). 00z-06z/10 ensembles used to modify the op cycles which would say, forget it for the subforum on the 15th-16th. This could be my mistake. I tend to use ensemble patterns in the longer range and focus on the ops inside of 4 days. 659A/10

Multiple 12z/9 ensembles are producing snow and ice for the NYC subforum beginning with possible scattered southeast moving cold shot snow shower dustings late Saturday or Sunday, and then a widespread light-possibly moderate wintry event 15-16. This one may even try to bridge back to another oncoming wintry event late 18-19, though with a 24 hour break later 17-18. Staying with the 15th-16th: Whether this wintry system goes the route of the most depressed GEFS, or the closer to LI, EPS and GGEM/GEPS? Something wintry continues to keep coming and while the EC had its 1-4" north of I80 on the 00z/9 cycle it now had it south of I80. This will be the first widespread wintry event of the second half of March, and as Bluewave implied, quite possibly more... this too signaled by the CFS for a few days (multiple NYC subforum snow-rain events). Graphics are the 12z/9 EPS snow (10-1), GEFS snow, GEPS snow depth returning south of I80 with a 00z-3/15 view and a 06z 3/17 view of SD 251P/9

Agreed... I do think op models and ens are coming around and will post shortly in the storm thread. It's how strong the multiple hort waves developing the -NAO... and it may be that the models are too strong too soon. Maybe I'm wish casting but significant wintry weather appears headed for the midAtlantic and at least a part of the northeast beginning this weekend.

Lot's of words follow, for the modeled proposed wintry mix solution early next week. So, the door continues open for a small wintry weather event, snow-ice to rain with very low confidence for any snow accumulation - NJ coast-NYC. Modeling continues vacillating but it appears to me it's gathering a bit of a trend for a well defined warm frontal wave e of Cape May/s of LI. (not so the 00z/9 GGEM,). It's a WAA situation over the remaining cold influx of this weekend. The weakening short wave out of the Midwest, is delayed a day so will remove (early) on the 16th from the title and drop the 14th. Whatever might have occurred the 14th might still occur, but more so late Saturday the 13th but that is a very low chance and negligible. Otherwise, ensembles are less than 2" on snow acc. Operationally the 00z/9 GFSv15-16 continue with minor ice/snow interior, while the 00z/9 EC... probably can't hold it's operational 00z/9 offering in subsequent cycles, but the EC just tells me, that that heavier single member option is still on table, as proposed a couple of days ago by multiple GFS cycles. In short: there is still a chance for snow-ice, but this is probably just your typical probably only minor event, destined mainly for the interior. This barring a reinvigoration and deepening eastward moving short wave out of the Midwest as the following short wave hurls the ridge northward behind it. Right now, 06z/9 WPC has spotty 10% chance of .25" frozen w.e. precip in the nw part of our subforum. Another way to look at this, it's a 90% chance of non-occurrence.

607A/8 Update: Closed low departure into midwest seems a little slower, so overall arrival may be delayed til late 15? Still looks favorable for a period of wintry qpf event anywhere in our subforum, with possibly something near the reinforcing CAA short wave Sunday, and then most likely the large scale event late Monday 15-early Tuesday 16. Think it's best to smooth out all the modeling lows and highs and see if this potential is still valid come this Wednesday morning (00/10 cycle). All ensembles (EPS/GEFS/GEPS) continue to give us some wintry qpf but just light nuisance amounts. Will revisit this on Tuesday.

Always subject to adjustment. So far, theme is okay, tho EC continues well south., and GGEM were north. Just need to ride it all out and see if the basic theme still holds water 3 days from now.