wdrag

Wantage 0.32 since 6A... (.01 6A-7A), then the bulk from ~930A onward. EC was steady on this and some of the NAM/ SPC HREF/GGEM had it too but not much after 2P and variable inconsistency, so much so that I was getting depressed about not having significant rain today after seeing some of the 12z and 18z/7 guidance. Turns out that guidance available leading up to 20z/Wed May 5 and resultant cancel decisionfor an important outdoor project today, worked out. Was sweating it last night. mPing showing many hail reports NNJ-PA/MD after 230PM.

No thread yet for the coastal Friday but GEFS seems to be leading the way as the EPS is trending south. No agreement yet between various ops and so holding for another day or two but this apparently is going to be a somewhat interesting first 15 days of May. Had a pollen-backdoor cool front go through here in the past 90 minutes. Waves of pollen in the northeast flow here recently. Backdoor is/was on the EWR TDWR.

Adding PHI max gusts now... just updated. Public Information Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1105 AM EDT Sat May 1 2021 ...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS... Location Speed Time/Date Provider ...Delaware... ...Kent County... Dover 46 MPH 0601 PM 04/30 AWOS ...New Castle County... Wilmington 52 MPH 1108 PM 04/30 ASOS ...Sussex County... Lewes NOS 59 MPH 1054 PM 04/30 NOS-NWLON 1 WNW Lewes 57 MPH 0618 PM 04/30 Mesonet Dewey Beach 55 MPH 0632 PM 04/30 WXFLOW Georgetown 46 MPH 0750 PM 04/30 ASOS Delmar, DE-Gumboro 46 MPH 0800 PM 04/30 DEOS2 ...Maryland... ...Queen Anne`s County... Grasonville 47 MPH 0525 PM 04/30 CWOP ...Talbot County... Easton Newnam 46 MPH 1055 PM 04/30 AWOS ...New Jersey... ...Atlantic County... Atlantic City International 64 MPH 0519 PM 04/30 ASOS Pleasantville Point 51 MPH 0629 PM 04/30 WXFLOW Atlantic City 49 MPH 1145 AM 04/30 NJWXNET Mullica Twp. 47 MPH 0510 PM 04/30 NJWXNET ...Burlington County... Moorestown 55 MPH 0145 PM 04/30 NJWXNET 2 SW Rancocas 55 MPH 0145 PM 04/30 Mesonet McGuire AFB 54 MPH 0159 PM 04/30 AWOS ...Camden County... Pennsauken 52 MPH 0135 PM 04/30 NJWXNET ...Cape May County... Cape May 56 MPH 1017 PM 04/30 WXFLOW Cape May 49 MPH 0630 PM 04/30 AWOS Dennis Twp. 47 MPH 0525 PM 04/30 NJWXNET Sea Isle City 45 MPH 0531 PM 04/30 CWOP Woodbine 45 MPH 0615 PM 04/30 NJWXNET Woodbine Muni 45 MPH 0623 PM 04/30 AWOS ...Cumberland County... Fortesque 56 MPH 1000 PM 04/30 NJWXNET Millville 47 MPH 0555 PM 04/30 ASOS ...Hunterdon County... Pittstown 50 MPH 0345 PM 04/30 NJWXNET Readington 45 MPH 0459 PM 04/30 AWOS ...Mercer County... Trenton 49 MPH 0143 PM 04/30 ASOS ...Middlesex County... Perth Amboy 51 MPH 0505 PM 04/30 WXFLOW ...Monmouth County... Port Monmouth 53 MPH 0500 PM 04/30 CWOP Belmar Farmdale 52 MPH 0510 PM 04/30 AWOS Keyport 48 MPH 0430 PM 04/30 CWOP Monmouth 48 MPH 0213 AM 05/01 WXFLOW Sea Girt 47 MPH 0540 PM 04/30 NJWXNET ...Ocean County... 2 SSW Barnegat Light 67 MPH 0529 PM 04/30 Mesonet Beach Haven 59 MPH 0601 PM 04/30 CWOP Rutgers 59 MPH 0602 PM 04/30 WXFLOW 3 NNW Barnegat Light 58 MPH 0234 PM 04/30 Mesonet 4 ESE Lanoka Harbor 58 MPH 0234 PM 04/30 Mesonet 4 SE Mystic Island 58 MPH 0559 PM 04/30 Mesonet Tuckerton 58 MPH 0559 PM 04/30 WXFLOW Trixies 54 MPH 0236 PM 04/30 WXFLOW Mantoloking 54 MPH 0404 PM 04/30 WXFLOW Harvey Cedars 53 MPH 0505 PM 04/30 NJWXNET Lakehurst NAS 51 MPH 0247 PM 04/30 AWOS Seaside Heights 50 MPH 0340 PM 04/30 NJWXNET Toms River 49 MPH 0249 PM 04/30 AWOS North Beach Haven 48 MPH 0600 PM 04/30 CWOP Surf City 48 MPH 0246 AM 05/01 CWOP North Beach Haven 47 MPH 0100 PM 04/30 CWOP Island Heights 46 MPH 0425 PM 04/30 CWOP Point Pleasant 45 MPH 0120 PM 04/30 NJWXNET ...Somerset County... Somerville 46 MPH 0127 AM 05/01 ASOS ...Sussex County... Wallkill River Nwr 50 MPH 0556 PM 04/30 RAWS ...Warren County... Stewartsville 45 MPH 0500 PM 04/30 NJWXNET ...Pennsylvania... ...Berks County... Fleetwood 62 MPH 1245 PM 04/30 CWOP Reading Regional Airport 54 MPH 1226 PM 04/30 ASOS Lenhartsville 48 MPH 0303 PM 04/30 CWOP ...Bucks County... Nockamixon 51 MPH 0435 PM 04/30 WXFLOW Doylestown 47 MPH 0441 PM 04/30 ASOS Newbold NOS 46 MPH 0348 PM 04/30 NOS-PORTS Newtown 45 MPH 0135 PM 04/30 CWOP ...Chester County... White Clay Creek West Grove- 52 MPH 0505 PM 04/30 DEOS2 Atglen 46 MPH 0459 PM 04/30 CWOP West Chester 45 MPH 0302 PM 04/30 AWOS ...Delaware County... Thornton 48 MPH 0557 PM 04/30 CWOP ...Lehigh County... Whitehall Twp 51 MPH 0505 PM 04/30 Trained Spotter Lehigh Valley Intl Airport 49 MPH 0423 PM 04/30 ASOS Macungie 45 MPH 0300 PM 04/30 CWOP ...Monroe County... Mt. Pocono 55 MPH 0253 AM 05/01 ASOS ...Montgomery County... King of Prussia 55 MPH 0140 PM 04/30 Trained Spotter ...Northampton County... Forks Twp 61 MPH 0445 PM 04/30 Trained Spotter North Catasauqua 54 MPH 0500 PM 04/30 Trained Spotter

More data to show timing, max G, in our forum. Timing was decent as the modeled outcome, maybe a little robust NYC than I would have expected, which means other forecast gust sources were a little shy for NYC including HRRR, SPC HREF and the previously mentioned RGEM/GGEM, even the EC. 000 NOUS41 KOKX 011134 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-012334- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 734 AM EDT SAT MAY 1 2021 ...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS... LOCATION SPEED TIME/DATE PROVIDER ...CONNECTICUT... ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... GREENWICH 60 MPH 0300 PM 04/30 CWOP BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 48 MPH 0506 PM 04/30 ASOS NORWALK 45 MPH 1029 AM 04/30 CWOP ...NEW HAVEN COUNTY... NEW HAVEN 55 MPH 1235 PM 04/30 CWOP LIGHTHOUSE POINT 52 MPH 0357 PM 04/30 WXFLOW HAMMONASSET 46 MPH 0628 PM 04/30 WXFLOW WATERBURY AIRPORT 45 MPH 0612 PM 04/30 AWOS ...NEW JERSEY... ...BERGEN COUNTY... TETERBORO AIRPORT 49 MPH 0400 PM 04/30 ASOS ...ESSEX COUNTY... CALDWELL 46 MPH 1039 PM 04/30 ASOS ...HUDSON COUNTY... BAYONNE 50 MPH 0108 AM 05/01 WXFLOW HARRISON 45 MPH 0540 PM 04/30 AWS ...UNION COUNTY... NEWARK AIRPORT 53 MPH 1208 PM 04/30 ASOS ...NEW YORK... ...BRONX COUNTY... FORDHAM 45 MPH 1250 AM 05/01 NYSM ...KINGS COUNTY... BROOKLYN COLLEGE 49 MPH 1235 PM 04/30 NYSM ...NASSAU COUNTY... BAYVILLE 53 MPH 0743 PM 04/30 WXFLOW WANTAGH 47 MPH 0245 PM 04/30 NYSM MERRICK 46 MPH 0445 PM 04/30 CWOP 0.8 NW UNIONDALE 45 MPH 1220 AM 05/01 MESOWEST ...NEW YORK COUNTY... MIDTOWN MANHATTAN 60 MPH 0220 PM 04/30 NYSM ...ORANGE COUNTY... STEWART AIRPORT 46 MPH 0645 PM 04/30 AWOS MONTGOMERY AIRPORT 45 MPH 0257 PM 04/30 AWOS ...PUTNAM COUNTY... BREWSTER 45 MPH 0510 PM 04/30 NYSM ...QUEENS COUNTY... NYC/LA GUARDIA 61 MPH 0412 PM 04/30 ASOS KEW GARDEN HILLS 57 MPH 0225 PM 04/30 NYSM NYC/JFK AIRPORT 51 MPH 0607 PM 04/30 ASOS JACKSON HEIGHTS 51 MPH 1228 AM 05/01 CWOP ...RICHMOND COUNTY... 2 SE ELIZABETH 56 MPH 1230 AM 05/01 NDBC COLLEGE OF STATEN ISLAND 49 MPH 0540 PM 04/30 NYSM ...ROCKLAND COUNTY... SUFFERN 46 MPH 1155 PM 04/30 NYSM ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... EATONS NECK 66 MPH 1057 PM 04/30 WXFLOW STONY BROOK 65 MPH 0342 PM 04/30 CWOP BAITING HOLLOW 52 MPH 1030 PM 04/30 CWOP GREAT GULL ISLAND 50 MPH 0131 AM 05/01 WXFLOW WESTHAMPTON AIRPORT 48 MPH 1102 AM 04/30 ASOS SHIRLEY AIRPORT 47 MPH 0350 PM 04/30 ASOS FIRE ISLAND CG 46 MPH 0258 PM 04/30 WXFLOW ISLIP AIRPORT 45 MPH 0820 PM 04/30 ASOS ...WESTCHESTER COUNTY... TAPPAN ZEE LIGHT 14 54 MPH 0858 PM 04/30 WXFLOW WHITE PLAINS AIRPORT 49 MPH 0934 PM 04/30 ASOS CROTON 45 MPH 0347 PM 04/30 WXFLOW ...MARITIME STATIONS... ...CONNECTICUT... 2 SSE NEW HAVEN 52 MPH 0524 PM 04/30 NOS-PORTS STONGINGTON OUTER BREAKWATER 52 MPH 0243 PM 04/30 WXFLOW 1 ESE NORWALK 48 MPH 0755 PM 04/30 WXFLOW 2 S GROTON 48 MPH 0640 PM 04/30 NDBC ...NEW JERSEY... JERSEY CITY 65 MPH 0553 PM 04/30 CWOP ...NEW YORK... ROBBINS REEF, NJ 62 MPH 1112 PM 04/30 NOS-PORTS POINT O WOODS YC 55 MPH 0302 PM 04/30 WXFLOW SHINNECOCK 53 MPH 0414 PM 04/30 WXFLOW 15 S ATLANTIC BEACH 49 MPH 0110 AM 05/01 NDBC MANHATTAN DWNTWN 49 MPH 0958 AM 04/30 AWOS 26 SSE ROBERT MOSES STATE PA 49 MPH 0230 AM 05/01 NDBC LARCHMONT HARBOR 46 MPH 0845 PM 04/30 WXFLOW KINGS POINT 45 MPH 1124 PM 04/30 NOS-NWLON 19 SSE EAST HAMPTON 45 MPH 0100 AM 05/01 NDBC && My max gust occurred in Wantage at 340AM, 40 MPH. Tree split next door.

So, as noted in a 'please verify' post earlier this page, 00z-06z/1 ensemble modeling is trending toward a sharpening digging trough here that may yield a sizable winterlike storm Friday the 7th, with 40-50kt wind gusts (coasts), heavy rain (coasts) and maybe a little wet snow elevations. Still plenty of room to miss us to the east, or be weaker than a 985MB sfc low but worthy of monitoring. Possibly threading this, Sunday or Monday? Need NAVGEM and GGEM to shift back to the west, the EC op to accept the occasional GFS cycle operational big storm concept for our NYC metro. Again, not threaded yet due too much chance of this storm slipping too far to our east-northeast.

Good Saturday morning. I'm awaiting some final reports. Max wind gusts appeared for the most part prior to 8PM tho there was a second surge during the night with MPO, and our home in Wantage (among possibly others) maxing out between midnight and 4A today. I didn't check ACARS soundings from yesterday, so am unsure why it seemed to me the wind overpreformed a bit during Friday afternoon but have seen this before, where the sounding lapse rate transfer finds more wind that wasn't obviously modeled. Probably some unknowns (to me) going on with transfer. In any case, NAM/GFS/EC modeling I think had a good handle on general areas of concern NYC west. I was disappointed in the RGEM/GGEM runup to this event. Next up: see May thread.

I may not keep up w all the reports, but I'm sure summary reports will be added Saturday morning. Power outages going up pretty fast. Not much yet in New England as max wind axis and cold core is NYS-PA.

Max wind field to the w of NYC. That is where the 3K NAM has the core of the wind. Added 12z 3K NAM 850MB wind forecast 18z/30, and 03z/1. I think it still be unstable through midnight. Power outages should increase.

Wind reports are adding up: 45-near 50KT vicinity NYC, and this without the coldest core-strongest wind, yet. Graphics added at 338P. This is turning into a high Wind event due in part to leaved trees. Maybe a few folks see small hail or flurries late today/tonight n of I80 in NJ/se NYS/PA and CT? KACY: Atlantic City, Atlantic City Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KALB: Albany, Albany Intl Arpt, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KBDR: Bridgeport, CT, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KBGM: Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KBOS: Boston, Logan Intl Arpt, MA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KBWI: Baltimore, MD, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KCBE: Cumberland, MD, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KCKB: Clarksburg, Clarksburg Benedum Airport, WV, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KDCA: Reagan National Airport, DC, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KDYL: Doylestown, Doylestown Airport, PA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KEWB: New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KEWR: Newark, Newark Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KFOK: Westhampton Beach, NY, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KHGR: Hagerstown, MD, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KIAD: Washington-Dulles Intl Arpt, VA, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KIJD: Willimantic, Windham Airport, CT, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KILG: Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KLGA: New York, La Guardia Airport, NY, United States [49kt, 25m/s] KLNS: Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KMDT: Harrisburg, Harrisburg Intl Arpt, PA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KMJX: Toms River, NJ, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KMPO: Mount Pocono, PA, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KMQE: East Milton, MA, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KMRB: Martinsburg, WV, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KNEL: Lakehurst, NJ, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KORE: Orange, Orange Municipal Airport, MA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KPHL: Philadelphia, Philadelphia Intl Arpt, PA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KPKB: Parkersburg, WV, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KPLN: Pellston, MI, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KPNE: NE Philadelphia, PA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KRDG: Reading, Reading Regional Airport, PA, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KROA: Roanoke, Roanoke Regional Airport, VA, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KRSP: Campd David, MD, United States [48kt, 25m/s] KRVL: Reedsville / Mifflin, PA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KSCH: Schenectady Airport, NY, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KSYR: Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock Intl Arpt, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KTNB: Boone, Watauga County Hospital Heliport, NC, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KTTN: Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KUNI: Ohio Univ. Airport, WV, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KWRI: Mcguire AFB, NJ, United States [47kt, 24m/s]

Quick check at 525A/30: Axis of strongest winds aloft appears to be NYS/NJ to far w LI. Richardson # via 3K NAM says best chance of transfer 40-45 KT (ridges Poconos 50kt), is 8P-1A. NAM FOUS BL wind fcst (06z/30) suggests marginal for 40kt NYC east, with best chance in our area for sct 40 kt NJ/PA/Catskills. Still could see iso 50 kt, but thinking on that is only ridges wnw of NYC. Follow OKX/PHI statements.

Interesting shear this eve and unstable. Pre event shower-glob may nix this eve Severe risk but not dismissing if TSTMs develop. On the job so no time to check except cursory look. I may add something this eve but cannot add further til then. Have a day

For the record: You saw last evening's local storm reports for damage ne PA, extreme nw NJ which did result in a power outage here in Wantage around 830P with max G 37MPH. Rainfall total was .19, most of that in 20 minutes. Todays total now over .54" as we make up for below normal April rainfall.

Please follow NWS (SPC/local offices) for additional information on the late Thursday afternoon-evening SVR threat. Confidence on SVR late today is less than a CAA wind event for late Friday. Used HRRR/EC/3KNAM for main guidance, Richardson # projects strongest wind transfer of a descending jet Friday evening, after sunset. Whether that occurs? However lapse rates do increase substantially with the arrival of the cold pool aloft allowing opportunity for damaging wind gusts late Fri-Fri eve. No time for graphics-please follow up as you think best. This thread should serve as the thread for any damage reports.

Not to distract from current nice warmth, considering a thread issuance 6A Thursday for sct Fri aft/eve gusts 40-48 kt per a number of models. Would like one further check of 00z/29 guidance. More or less typical for our area. Enjoy the warmth.

Thanks for keeping up w this... have had big sprinkles here in Wantage at 815A. Cold influx is soo fast, while it's hailing near NYC at 3P (if it's hailing), it could be snowing in parts of the Poconos including KMPO. HRRR gusts are starting to nudge slightly higher in isolated cells (I think 40KT+, especially NYS-CT). Off to work for me. Have a day.

The 06z/21 SPC guidance attached. I won't be commenting on this thread til possibly 6P. Whether this occurs quite as robustly as SPC has discussed is uncertain in my mind but deserves consideration. Follow SPC/OKX/PHI updates and have a good day.

SPC continues Marginal risk se NYS-NJ. 00z-06z/20 HRRR/NAM/EC have decent development Wednesday afternoon. TT near 53 flag attention for hail and gust transfer looks like 40-45KT. Follow NWS local offices/SPC/and our own members assessments. Have added the SPC discussion plus the EC (just below SPC)/GFS (below EC) fcst sounding for 18z/21 n central NJ as an idea of what seems to be coming via convection for NJ. CAPE is marginal and KI OK. Activity while still fairly strong crossing LI/CT will ingest cooler southerly inflow from the ocean to limit potential hailers/wind gusts? Even so, the wind shift with significant cold air advection during the evening may induce isolated gusts 40 kt on the island? Have a look. This thread should also serve well for any significant reports of whatever convection occurs Wednesday afternoon.

Bluewave among others is on it for Wed... maybe if it looks like hailers are a good bet, will start a thread Tuesday AM for Wed afternoon.

I wish we had room to store images for a year... I also think it valuable to go back and see the images and check threads. However, in order for me to post further images, I need to ensure I am capable and haven't run out of storage. Maybe we need to donate to AMWX to increase the image archive? Best I can do, Walt

More? you want more?? Maybe Wed afternoon a T-1/2", flurries even possible Thursday L Harmony... quite a cold strong short wave, that may spew small hailers out ahead of it in the line Wed afternoon across the NYC forum. A couple more short waves follow with blocking attempts. Wed afternoon is the first chance for minor snowfall in the Pocs/Cats. By the way, .06 so far here today in Wantage this Monday afternoon.

Lake Hsrmony I have 0.32" melted w.e. and 1.0" snow.

A little incomplete recap. I've attached the 2 day rainfall (last image) and the snowfall via CoCoRahs. If they don't report everyday, then it doesn't get added into the two day, or if there are seemingly errors, as may have occurred in ne CT, you see the oddity. You have some of the guidance previously to check against. My guess on the outcome from initial thread 6 days ago (based on ensembles). Move this upper air system about 100 miles west southwest from the Fri evening position and we'd have been in business here. Still QPF 1-2" CT, e 80% of LI down to less than 1/2" most of NJ/ne PA and w of the Hudson in se NYS. Snowfall of about 1/2- 1" Poconos ], 1-3" nw CT (not seen in the two day CoCORAHS because of missing Saturday reports). BOX has a nice report that helps fill in some of the data, inclusive of 50+MPH winds Cape Cod. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=box&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS

Lake Harmony about 0.7" at least, Cobb 1/4-1/2" soldi cover. More coming. I see nw CT nice 1-3" so far. iso 6" out of area in ne CT.

snowed and sacculated (try again-accumulated edit 747P) this morning higher terrain Pocs... certainly at 2000 feet exit 8 I84.

Sun in Wantage NJ and 0.28", mainly 2-550P.