wdrag

1.5" covers entire subforum next 5 fays, most of it the next 3. 2"+ across se 2/3rd NJ.

What somehow is not allowing a post direct from WPC. Day 3 Valid 12Z Thu Jul 01 2021 - 12Z Fri Jul 02 2021 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... Troughing will dig southward-southeastward out of Ontario into the Ohio Valley, allowing the long-standing boundary to move southward and eastward as it gets reinforced from the northern height falls. Right rear quadrant of the jet (~70-100kts) will dip into the eastern Great Lakes early Thursday promoting larger-scale upper divergence above the surface cold front. Axis of precipitable water values 1.50-2.00" (about +2 sigma) will precede the front, coupled with CAPE values 1000-2000 J/kg generally south of 40N. 00Z guidance showed differences in timing and how far east (I-95 to I-87 corridor) and southeast (western VA/NC) heavier rainfall may get (or in one or two waves), though the ECMWF ensemble mean has been rather steady the past few runs while the GEFS mean has wavered on favoring the DelMarVa or not. Best QPF signal aligning with heavier QPF was over the central Appalachians which may be overnight Thu into early Fri. Multi-ensemble probabilities (GEFS/ECENS/CMCE) of at least 1"/24hrs was about 50% in the Slight Risk area, and about 15% for 2"/24hrs. Extended the Marginal area westward back to the Southern Plains and SE CO where PW values will remain high (1.50-2.00") just to the south of the cold front.

Wed-Thursday primary days, very low prob big storm late today NYS-NJ border?

Cannot seem to post my words and that of NWS products... What is happening? Potential for SVR storms north of I80 late Tue, especially late Wed, and heart of the forum Thu and southern edge Fri? Looks to me like Danny vort gets involved Thu-early Fri per tracking remains on RAL and op cycles. Iso FF possible Thu-Fri per WPC D3 excessive. Remembering all the cycles prior to last Saturday of 4-7" by July 5, we shall see. Not thinking of adding July 3-4-5 since opportunity for the bulk of the RW+ slipping just south of us - but could be close for the southern part of the forum. SPC D2 SVR northern part of Forum (I80) north, D3 Marginal throughout.

Will begin thread around 725A featuring potential for SVR storms north of I80 late Tue, especially late Wed, and heart of the forum Thu and southern edge Fri? Looks to me like Danny vort gets involved Thu-early Fri per tracking remains on RAL and op cycles. Iso FF possible Thu-Fri per WPC D3 excessive. Remembering all the cycles prior to last Saturday of 4-7" by July 5, we shall see. Not thinking of adding July 3-4-5 since opportunity for the bulk of the RW+ slipping just south of us - but could be close for the southern part of the forum. SPC D2 SVR northern part of Forum (I80) north, D3 Marginal throughout. Thread in an hour or so. Gotta walk the dog in the cool 73F air.

Our league doubleheader softball games for 60-90 year olds was canceled for Tue morning. Good move. Thinking of posting a thread at 7A Tuesday, featuring potential for SVR storms north of I80 late Tue, late Wed, and heart of the forum Thu and southern edge Fri? Nothing yet. The weekend is up in the air, though it seems to me if the GEFS is correct on cutting off a low in the upper Ohio Valley this weekend, that this would eventually spread showery weather back northeast into our area on the 4th and 5th. Timing location for svr this week, and uncertainty as to upper air pattern this coming weekend- all my questions. (SPC D3 for Wed has had marginal for us since this morning). 12z/28 EC op is progressive, but their 12z/28 ensembles less so and similar to GEFS though not as closed off. Finally had some small heavy showers tip of nw NJ around 2-4P today. Started the July topic since it hadn't 't been yet. Can change the wording if anyone has a better wording. Have no idea if tropics will involve us this July but it seems to me once this ne USA trough dissolves around the 6th, that we go right back to Bermuda heat high pressure and as per Danny, a trackable 850 vort could be active as it whips around the Bermuda high.

Just borrowed on some of the on-going themes for July... as written in June threads, with past 40 year temperature trends supporting some of our posted long range statistical outlooks including those of CPC through today-June 28.

So the summary today,for our subforum is GFS/EC bust, HRRR/RGEM rainfree being correct. No other changes to the outlook through July 5. 12z GFS iso 7" nr Long Branch NJ and EC up to around 3+. in parts of the forum. Let's see what happens... iso max 3.5? or more like max 4.5"+?

Several (June 26 and now the 27th) GFS op cycles of 4+ are on the table, though the 3+ on the12z/26 EC has waned in it's 00z/27 cycle, since it's drying us out July 3-5. HOWEVER, this becomes interesting for me since both 00z/27 ensembles are taking the the Great Lakes trough and trying to keep it pretty strong in the upper Ohio Valley-across PA on the 3rd and then eastward thereafter. Suggests to me the front hangs up around here with a shot of WAA heavy showers/embedded thunder July 3 and possibly 4, before it all goes dry for several days. Where would that occur? S of I80, I80 or north. My guess is south of I80 across NJ but??? So, continuing the unscientific cut of the GFS op run max qpf in half, I still think there' is a good chance of 4+ somewhere in our forum. Not too hard to come by, with one 3 hour merging cluster of Tstorms any of these days this coming week Uncertainty exists where persistence of high PW will occur between June 28th-July 4. PW, almost throughout that period is still ~ 1.8" or above near NYC through July 2nd... and Thickness near 576 with weak boundaries, suggests to me some big storms (damaging wet downbursts) coming in the high CAPE air this coming week. Dates and where?? Appears to me Wed June 30 and or Thu July 1 are candidates for severe outlooks here...enough wind aloft combined with currently modeled big Cape/PW/KI. Isolated SVR cant be ruled out Mon (June 28) and Tue (June 29) in the big Cape north of I80 but wind aloft is weak...which would favor thunderstorm generated very narrow swaths of big rain but not necessarily svr. To me: Seems hard to miss big storms that are capable of producing localized FF and/or wind damage mid or end of the week. No topic from myself because while it might be a little early in the summer, I just look at background thicknesses in the dead of summer (not looking at climo) and consider this within the norm. IF it becomes evident that we can have storms gain attention of a sizable percent of our forum (SPC OUTLOOK), then will generate a topic (possibly encompassing two or 3 days) but for now - just monitoring cyclicly. This Sunday afternoon and evening: latest 06z-08z/27 HRRR and RGEM have nothing while 00z-6z/27 EC/FV3/GFS/HRDPS have notable storms ne PA leaking into nw NJ.

Obviously depends on persistence for PWAT over our subforum through 8PM July 5, and so the the several (June 26) GFS op cycles of 4+ and now 3+ on the12z/2e6 EC, may end up too high for a MAX isolated point total. So lets' unscientifically cut the 7 to 3.5... max total somewhere in the subforum by July 5.... Not too hard to come by within one 3 hours merging cluster of storms. The uncertainty is where persistence will occur between June 28th-July 4. PWAT, almost throughout that period is 1.8" or above near NYC... and Thickness near 576 with weak boundaries, suggests to me some big storms (damaging wet downbursts) coming in the high CAPE air this coming week. Dates and where?? Based on what I've seen I am expecting two days of SVR in the subforum this week. Whether extensive or not?? but seems hard to miss big storms that are capable of producing localized FF and/or wind damage. No topic from myself because while it might be a little early in the summer, I just look at background thicknesses in the dead of summer (not looking at climo) and consider this within the norm. IF it becomes evident that we can have storms gain attention of a sizable percent of our forum, will try to generate a topic but reserved for now - just monitoring cyclicly. By the way I see NJ did nice today with many 0.1 to 1/4" amounts, even an isolated .49 per data. GFS convective output has been offering this for quite a while and even the conservative EC. Worthy of monitoring GFS convective output in the subforum, especially ending 18z and 00z 6 hour time periods. and convective leftovers ending 06z. There should be something daily somewhere in our subforum through ~July 4.

Drizzling in Wantage at 615A Saturday and driveway getting the damp look.

Despite the 4 days of activity (tiny area NYS/NJ) Sunday afternoon-evening, rainfall max's did not repeat over the same area Sat-The, so max amounts under 2" in our area but at least halfway decent amounts occurred LI, NW NJ, parts of se NYS-CT. Still, not a big deal and continues the seasonable pattern.

few reports of damage far nw NJ, 0.65 Wantage. Almost over and tomorrow looks like a band or two of heavy showers but svr unlikely except small possibility LI/CT/Coastal NJ???

Warnings OH/PA at 1, probably to NJ by ~7PM ish. Should be pretty fast moving. Max rainfalls so far past two days ~1.5" sw Ct and N Central NJ. Unsure whether 12z/21 EC is a tease overdone, but if not... plenty of rain coming with high KI, PWAT, and some decent Cape NYC eastward tomorrow + decent flow aloft. Clusters heavy rain and weak sfc CAA Tuesday may limit the svr threat Tuesday, but eastern LI might be interesting? For now, though would monitor this evening in our subforum. I probably won't be able to contribute after 430P-10P.

I've got a few minutes to add some impressions... Watch likely MCD is out. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1048.html NJ expectations later in the day/eve. Will check CoCoRAHS for two days and revisit tomorrow. WPC is rather paltry on qpf the next 24 hours, so i could be misreading.

So you saw the spotty thunderstorms Sunday afternoon NNJ and extreme as NYS I think dying in sw CT last eve. Haven’t looked real close but believe big storms die out NYC li in the 10ptomidnight time frame today w SPC severe just w of NYC. Tuesday may. Or be severe if this eve is, but have to thiink band of beavy showers and storms Tuesday I95 corridor east. Gotta go

n/c from the overall expectations the next 3 days. timing will mean a lot for Tuesday. WAA isolated or a couple of clusters of showers/storms late today this eve for NJ/NYS/PA; Dying line of SVR appears likely into se NYS/w NJ Mon eve; then the timing of convection and potential svr for Tue. Right now, SPC doesn't like our chances for Tue. Have a wonderful Fathers Day! Attached RFC produced real for yesterday. Seems a little low in the axis, as per previous post of weather station data. Also low per pure radar estimates. Walt

And a sampler of weather station data: several 1"-1.5" in NNJ near I80. No svr.

Looks to me like the HRRR is the way to go, with some south extension blend of the EC/GFS etc. Models have generally missed Nw PA and sw NYS, even CT. I have no answer except the 19z HRRR cons spewing near 50KT gust ne NJ across n LI this eve. Whether that occurs, per SPC and my gut, am not confident but this is a developing situation into this eve. Should be decent qpf I78 to I80 and maybe LI.

Uncertainty as always but SPC has expanded their D1 into our area, and the attached 12z HRRR suggests iso 50-55KT gusts into PA/NJ/LI, mirroring the 00z/19 EC OP. Looks to me like 90-95F today (non marine), decent CAPE. The severe risk suppresses south tomorrow, but WAA begins late Sunday and then both Monday and Tuesday look steamy 90-95F inland, depending on sunshine which also implies cirrus from Claudette possibly tempering heat/cape. This should result in pockets of heavy convection, and where training, could see a ISOLATED max of 4" by 6PM Tuesday. Otherwise, the necessarily more conservative early Saturday WPC outlook works. So while not a big deal (yet) for heavy rain, the convection later today, later Monday and Tuesday could provide some news (damage) footage, including lightning related. Walt

SEVERE storms-reports/watch late today and Tuesday: Today: I think NJ and ePA along and s of I80 will see severe sometime between 5P and midnight. This per EC wind fields with an 850 jet near NNJ by 06z/Sunday. The lack of big CAPE and low TT in advance to me are the primary drawbacks. PW near 1.8". No topic yet due to limited coverage in the forum and SPC not much agreement except marginal risk (maybe because the 06z/19 GFS is timid). Monday: I didn't look closely at this day but might deserve attention in the future. Tuesday: The severe threat Tuesday may be mostly morning-midday but TT are 50+, KI near 40, PW near 1.8-2.0" despite tropical remnant passing well se. Looks quite active to me and could be a big day deserving a topic. (for me not yet). Later, Walt

Continue to monitor Trop system for infusion qpf into NYC subforum Tuesday - if it misses southeast of us, then it looks rather dry to me the rest of June, despite few cfp severe weather threats. I like the Great Lakes trough developing early next week to draw some of the tropical moisture up here for 12 hours but do realize this could still track south of us. Have a day. Walt

A # of us think best way to get heavy QPF on LI, se coastal New England including Cape Cod: WARM front south with WAA as the front advances northward toward LI and CC with PWAT growing and a nice inflow at 850MB. The lift seems to do the trick w thunderstorms and/or heavy showers.