wdrag

Not much change in my thinking. Focus Saturday or Fri eve-Sat night for one or two bands of FF/SVR. Enough wind aloft Saturday for SVR, plus instab via CAPE 2000J, TT near 50 look good, plus the CF in vicinity. Could have a lead dying line of sct SVR Fri eve, but the bigger qpf and potential for FF is Saturday. Otherwise a routine modest short Heat Wave appears to in progress across NJ having started today. HIndex Fri near 100 (day earlier than this mornings Sat EC expectation). How warm Sat??? Keep monitoring GGEM...if it has 2+, we're good. If it shifts south, then subforum might miss. Still worthy of monitoring. Could be pretty big rainfall in few spots (2-4"?) Rest of this afternoon... Am looking north of I84 for strongest wind/rain through 8 PM. The cluster s of Morristown NJ at 335P may be producing small hail. Thursday---good beach day. Cant rule out an isolated late day shower but less chance than today,

Routine til late Friday or this weekend and even then the non-routine may not be too bad?? So it rained in the northwest part of the forum early this morning, mainly nw of I95, (0.06 here in Wantage with a bit of distant lightning). The SVR storms upstream in PA/NYS weakened into our forum after midnight. Bad timing, despite a pulse of considerable instability-favorable winds aloft. Just not enough for 1AM events. So those looking for big action- seems routine summer the next several days as I think a 3-5 day heat wave develops today (originally did not expect the 90-93F in NNJ Monday, instead expected it YDY). I kind of think the heat should start this afternoon and peak probably Saturday when a Heat Advisory may be necessary. If the 06z/14 GFS is correct, this will not happen. It's possible 90F will linger Sunday along the coast but this entire EC based scenario does not agree with the 06z/14 GFS which is faster-cooler this weekend. I'll go with the EC through Saturday and unknown Sunday. SVR: Today- There will probably be a few svr North of I84 late this afternoon but wind fields are weakening and the TT is not favorable so this may go down as a nil event, especially NJ where Bigger CAPE exists but no obvious release driver. As per SPC, monitor CT and if it goes fairly big there???? it may die out as weakening TSTMs e LI tonight???? Thursday: Continues to look rainfree-good beach day. Friday: IF a line of scattered SVR storms in NYS holds together, it could drift down into the northern part of subforum at night. The faster GFS would favor this occurrence. Saturday: Looks a little rough around here with big CAPE - 2" PW and might be FF material- winds aloft not too strong. Wet microburst afternoon depending on whether we're still in the warm sector? Sunday: Depending on frontal position-there could be a load of rain. For now uncertain but would probably favor south of I80 in central NJ but very uncertain. Monitor the GGEM on big QPF...the 00z/14 cycle may not have it right but it is trying to tell us something pretty substantial is coming, as is the EC op QPF for this weekend. Did not add a day to the the original thread title since model differences are large this weekend.

By the way the MPD highlighted by Bluewave was excellently written, analyzed and results were pretty good. W of NYC and NW-NNE of PHl.

You're on top of it... I think this was a pretty good effort highlighting potential. PWAT/CAMS modeling bullseyes are constantly improving predictability. IF the NNJ max occurred 20-30 mi further east ... headlines all over NYC news. Right now, they don't know how difficult it was out here last eve. Folks pumping out basements this morning.

Good Wednesday morning all! Not quite as much SVR yesterday as expected NJ, and the extent of heavy rainfall was confined to NJ/PA and as other have noted BUST. I want to tell you to predict 4-5" of rain in a 60 hour period via "convection" here in the northeast is exceedingly difficult. IT happened, as you know near PHL and if you don't know, here also in nw NJ. I'll await CoCoRAHS and COOP data reports but there are via WXUNDERGROUND, spot 4-4.5" as posted yesterday are probably accurate. I had 2.11 here in Wantage. The point: The NWS excessive outlook I thought was reasonable and verified in nw NJ. Going forward: I may extend the headline through Sunday in a late day or Wednesday morning update?? Otherwise, it appears to me a modest heat wave is in the offing for interior NJ, and maybe EWR-LGA Thu-Sat; beginning Wed interior NJ; and maybe continuing from yesterday in the extreme southern part of our subforum. Slight chance HEAT Advisory needed Fri or Sat? TSTMS: Today: Potential for a cluster or two of showers/tstms in NJ early afternoon, certainly ne PA into interior se NYS and possibly extreme nw NJ between 5PM and 2AM when there is a good chance of spotty WAA SVR with TT rising to near 51, and wind fields at mid levels to 40 kt with INCREASING CAPE during the evening-overnight. Please see SPC D! SVR which is marginal our area and higher risk ne PA. Wed afternoon: Iso SVR possible in big CAPE, marginal wind situation. SPC Marginal risk. Thu-FrI: Beach Days-probably rainfall free and warm. Sat: Big CAPE but marginal wind. Still with the approaching cool front, SVR possible. Sunday: Do bands of heavy showers linger or dry out? Seems like the EC is slowing down and may need to extend this thread one day?? A little concerned about shortwave closing off across PA at 500 MB and below?? Next week: appears drier to me once the front passes south. So, LI and southern CT do not appear to br prime active weather til maybe this weekend, but NJ/ne PA/interior se NYS might have some interesting weather the next two afternoons/evening? and then looks pretty good there for this weekend

Big rains Sussex County leaking into se NYS... about 4.5" Montague NJ today, and after this batch, the band coming ne from MD may light up the rest of NNJ into Li between midnight and 3A before it abates to spotty drizzle around 5A.

In northern NJ (nw Sussex County Kittatiny Ridge area should have a FFW out), 3.5" in spots, certainly less than 6 hrs, and 4" in ne NJ per these two WXUnderground graphics. Pouring here in Wantage. LI you won't exceed what we had in NJ today and your svr risk is much less than out here, but your turn may becoming, maybe Wednesday sometime, or better yet Saturday. Even predawn Tuesday you should have clusters of heavy showers. Walt 852PM.

Thanks for keeping up with this... attending son's softball game soon, unless I see storms head for Hackettstown by 630. Walt

A few thoughts then I'm off line til 9P. Just had a brief deluge but no svr. Wind turned East here in Wantage at 3P. Just need to wait out everything through 4AM... consolidation dumps should occur along and south of backdoor...decent CAPE all night. Tuesday later at NIGHT! : EC signal for supercell in WAA storms that occur toward 2-4A Wed as TT increases to near 50. Wednesday: Completing my thoughts: Big CAPE may yield another chance of SVR late day?? Thursday: Beach - rain free day. Friday: Big Cape but is it capped? Saturday: Biggest Cape fcst this week on the 12z/12 EC... is there enough wind aloft. Maybe not but right now I'll bet on SVR ahead of the cold front. BIG CAPE tends to yield wet microbursts. Challenging week!! By the way, 90F heat made in into NNJ. When does it return? More on that tomorrow morning. Gotta run. Walt cooler easterly flow? Give it time but most of the big dump may not occur til after dark.

Good Monday morning everyone, Please follow NWS info on watches/warnings this weeks thread. SPC now has Marginal risk SVR parts of the suborum next 3 days. Wind fields for SVR later this week/Sat have decreased so confidence is a little less. Still overall, am most confident of any SVR late today, Wed afternoon, Sat. Thursday continues to look like the rain free day, and maybe now Friday with action at the end of the week tending to be concentrated this coming weekend Where all the new renewed rainfall after 10A today occurs, debatable, but somewhere as depicted by WPC moderate risk excessive. HEAT: Nearby 90F today, central NJ, probably suppressed by the backdoor Tuesday, then spreads north late Wed with best chance persistent 90F days Thu-Sat. Low clouds north of the warm front will interfere with heat next 3 days...so the boundary between cloud cover and none will probably help concentrate redevelopment of convection daily, wherever that is. This may mean CT and possibly NYS has lower chances of TR+,late today/Tue. Complex daily variations of what may happen. Let's take this day by day. Am probably offline through at least 5P.

Based on Bluewave post-prompted me to add this...CoCoRaHs totals as gathered the mornings of 7/2-7/11. Note the many 9's in CT with iso over 11. I see a 9+ in northern LI (possibly near Locust Valley?) and some 6's in NJ. Here is where I trust radar/machine report mblend except tempering radar digital totals when HAIL is involved.

So far this Sunday afternoon, uninteresting here. However, modeling and now WPC joining, MDT-HIGH Prob tomorrow of excessive rain. Won't surprise me if it starts overnight-predawn Monday along with embedded isolated SVR wind. So, Monday, Wednesday and now Saturday are the targeted big days of SVR/FF. Monday as per below: FF, iso embedded SVR; WED to me looks pretty big for SVR and a few FF, Saturday to me looks good for cool frontal outbreak with Sundays' cool down unknown (CFP or not??). Noting TT on Wed getting close to 50 along with the big 2000+J CAPE, decent wind fields. EC OP offering marginal TOR threat. From WPC below tomorrow: This looks to be a useful scientific discussion of potential. ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA OF NY/NJ/CT... ...Northeast... Two phased heavy-rain threat exists Monday. At the start of D2 (12Z Monday) there is likely to be ongoing thunderstorms moving eastward along a stalled warm front over Southern New England and eastern Upstate New York. Through the first half of the day, this activity is likely to be the primary driver of flash flooding. As the front stalls, PWs will continue to surge northward on southerly flow ahead of a deep trough in the Midwest, rising to 1.75-2 inches or more, which is 2-2.5 standard deviations above the climo mean. This southerly flow will additional draw higher instability northward, with MLCape reaching 500-1000 J/kg, although the greatest instability will remain south of the boundary. Along this instability gradient however, periods of showers and thunderstorms will train eastward on boundary-parallel mean wind, with rain rates of 1-2"/hr producing 2-3" of rainfall, and the HREF 12-hr probabilities suggest low-end potential for spots of 5". This rain will occur atop soils that are above the 98th percentile for 40cm soil saturation according to NASA SPoRT due to recent heavy rainfall, so heavy rainfall should quickly turn to runoff and the SLGT risk was expanded only slightly from inherited. A more significant flash flood risk may develop in the aftn/eve in the vicinity of the Tri-State area. A shortwave cresting the ridge to the west will drop southeastward. At the same time, it will suppress the front back to the south, and the interaction of this shortwave with the low-level baroclinic zone will lead to renewed thunderstorm clusters moving across the region. The 12z high-res suite is in very good agreement in a focus of heavy rainfall focused in the vicinity of NYC, with the HREF EAS probabilities depicting a threat for 2", and the point probabilities suggesting 5" or more possible. FFG across this area is severely compromised due to the presence of significant urban areas and recent heavy rainfall which is 300%+ of normal the last 7 days. Rain rates of 1-2"/hr are likely, and after coordination with WFO OKX and PHI, have raised a targeted MDT risk for the potential for slow moving thunderstorms Monday evening as Corfidi vectors drop to 5 kts near New York City.

Good Sunday morning everyone! July 11- D1 of thread in progress with early morning SPC marginal SVR, just to the west of the forum today, in the forum Monday, and nw NYS Tue but time to adjust all of these, plus SPC no mentions Wed, Fri-Sat due to their strenuous requirements for mentions in the D4-7 time frame. QPF already 1/2-3/4" nMD fm WXUnderground and per Digital storm totals leaked into extreme s central PA s of LNS. Convection already lining up southern PA and from my perspective heading for the northern or central NJ part of our subforum. Modeling temps, the wavering position of the eventual decaying warmfront (should occur Wed), makes the beginning of the 90F heat problematic, more so than I anticipated when the thread was started Fri night. NAM punches 90F up here Monday, but then suppresses southwestward Tue with its backdoor cold front. MOS has no heatwave. EC tries and GFS2m temps go for it Thu-Sat. So, I may be wrong about this, but its so close for interior coastal plain that I stay with the general pattern. Friday seems to continue to look the hottest of the week. GFS has shifted back to extending the heat Sunday. (more uncertainty for this thread but next Sunday is not intent of the thread) FF/SVR: little change in thinking. I see modeling and WPC are big to our north the next couple of days. Synoptically probably OK but FV3/HRDPS kind of like it pretty good down here too. CAPE suggests that we favor FF/SVR in the southwest part of the forum, mainly NJ/ne PA next 2 days, then open it up northward Tue-Wed. Wind fields/TT continue marginal but the EC CAPE continues threatening as well as PW that this week will vary between 1.8-2.2", with the dry day continuing to be modeled for Thu. So I continue to look for max 5" in the subforum by Tuesday...we'll see what the contributions are the next 24 hrs and I won't be surprised by iso SVR tonight in NJ. Only 1 other note of interest: Something in the upper levels near the Bahamas this morning is rotated nw-n-ne over our area Tue. No SFC reflection nor any 850 vort, but it's a slightly enhanced wind field. Unsure whether that will play a role Tuesday for big rain enhancement? So, until he realities prevail... this thread is subject to possibly being overdone, but my personal prep continues to be for FF/SVR and AC needs this coming week, especially western fringe I95 corridor. Will monitor fairly closely today.

Good Saturday morning, fwiw - possibly my last update til Sunday. If I were to do it again. Not much change. Modeling differs. For now, models tend to end any heatwave Saturday, and are very reluctant to get it started Tue EXCEPT the EC and to some extent the NAVGEM. I'll go with Tue-Sat 90 or better interior coastal plain where no seabreeze. The HEAT is a little less my concern. Latest EC OP has VERY large 5+ rainfall this week, but up in northern MA. My guess is further south near greater instability (our area). All i can do is watch the models and reality and see how this evolves. Regarding priming: Don't know. the week after Sunday the 18th looks a little drier and very summer seasonable, but that can change.

Started a topic that may not bear as much fruit as the recent ELSA of this past week but with the attached 6 hr FFG fairly low now in the immediate NYC suburbs, thought it might be good to heads up some of the potential. Sun afternoon-Tuesday---warm frontal residuals and moisture pooling in weak low lvl WAA and halfway decent winds aloft that diminish considerably on Tue, I think there will be pockets of FF producing thunderstorms that could yield spot 5" amounts in that 60 hour period (slow movers Tuesday). Instability is related to considerable CAPE over 2000J in parts of the area Mon and Tue. Warm fronts can be big rainfall producers and so my thinking is the biggest problems will be I80 south, though some of the modeling gets things cranking up to I84. Suspect a few SVR Wet microbursts each day, especially Monday and Tuesday. Additionally the heat wave should begin Tuesday in the non-marine wind influenced coastal plain with the HI 95-100 Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday and possibly right through the weekend if the 12az/9 EC op is incorrect and the GFS as of 18z/9 is correct on 576 thickness in our area next weekend. My guess, once the heat wave starts, the debate shifts to it's big break... right now I favor longer than the EC and quite possibly lasting through next weekend. Hottest day(s)?: I think Fri when some of modeling has HI 100-maybe 105 near NYC. SVR seems likely to me on Wednesday the 14th due to increasing wind fields, then a drying out Thu-probably nothing that day, with fairly widespread SVR looming either next Fri or Sat when not only CAPE seems pretty large, but wind fields increase quite a bit and more easily sustain a big outbreak. TT toward next weekend increase a bit toward 48-50..not a huge svr signal but together with the wind fields and CAPE, should be interesting. In Summary: Lower FFG, high CAPE suggest pockets of excessive rainfall coming this week, along with SVR storms, esp Mon, Wed, FRI. Who gets the worst and when?? It does appear this will be more than the routine summer week, once again, with the big 500MB ridge along the east coast and troughing hugging the Great Lakes.

From Mt Holly... not too far away OUS41 KPHI 092147 PNSPHI DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055- 060>062-070-071-101>106-101000- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 547 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 ...NWS Damage Survey results for Woodbine..Somers Point..and Little Egg Harbor Township on July 9... Two tornadoes have been confirmed in New Jersey. .Woodbine Tornado... Rating: EF-1 Estimated Peak Wind: 100 mph Path Length /statute/: 0.94 miles Path Width /maximum/: 75 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: July 9, 2021 Start Time: 02:40 AM EDT Start Location: Woodbine / Cape May County / NJ Start Lat/Lon: 39.2358 / -74.7927 End Date: July 9, 2021 End Time: 02:42 AM EDT End Location: Woodbine / Cape May County / NJ End Lat/Lon: 39.2370 / -74.8102 An EF-1 tornado touched down near the entrance of the Ocean World Condominium complex in Woodbine where it uprooted two cedar trees. The tornado completely destroyed a picnic shelter at the complex`s park area and spread debris consisting of structural remains and patio furniture hundreds of feet. The roof of the picnic shelter was dropped into the nearby swimming pool. The tornado caused considerable structural damage to the complex`s office and recreation building. The front door was blown out and ripped off of the structure and an exterior wall was pushed outward several inches, but did not completely collapse. The complex`s entrance sign was also blown over and another nearby cedar tree was uprooted. The tornado continued westward where it snapped a few trees along Ash Drive and Freidriechstadt Avenue. The tornado continued through a wooded area then uprooted a few trees near the intersection of Dehirsch Avenue and Joffe Drive. At the same intersection, several tree limbs were snapped off and sections of residential vinyl fencing was blown over. The tornado continued across an open area then ended near the intersection of Heilprin Avenue and Ocean Drive where it snapped part of a pine tree off onto a house. The NWS survey team would like to thank the Woodbine Office of Emergency Management and Woodbine Public Works Department for their assistance with this survey. .Little Egg Harbor Township Tornado... Rating: EF-0 Estimated Peak Wind: 80 mph Path Length /statute/: 0.29 miles Path Width /maximum/: 110 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: July 9, 2021 Start Time: 03:33 AM EDT Start Location: Little Egg Harbor Twp / Ocean County / NJ Start Lat/Lon: 39.5704 / -74.3598 End Date: July 9, 2021 End Time: 03:34 AM EDT End Location: Little Egg Harbor Twp / Ocean County / NJ End Lat/Lon: 39.5717 / -74.3646 An EF-0 tornado touched down in a residential area along Sycamore Drive in Little Egg Harbor Township. The tornado snapped numerous large tree limbs and snapped a few trees along Sycamore Drive and Harbourtown Boulevard. One small tree was uprooted on Sycamore Drive. Some homes suffered some cosmetic damage along Rosemont Lane and Harbourtown Boulevard where some sections of vinyl fencing were blown over. The tornado continued along Rosemont Lane where numerous tree limbs were down. A residence at the intersection of Rosemont Lane and Vista Court had 2 sections of wooden fencing blown out and tossed approximately 50 feet, striking the rear side of the house. A few houses along Vista Court also sustained some cosmetic damage. The tornado ended at the end of Vista Court where a few trees were snapped or uprooted. .Tropical Storm Wind Damage in Somers Point... Peak Wind Estimated: 100 mph Path Length /statute/: N/A miles Path Width /maximum/: N/A yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Date: July 9, 2021 Time: 02:58 AM EDT Location: Somers Point / Atlantic County / NJ Lat/Lon: 39.3161 / -74.5843 Strong wind from a rain band associated with Tropical Storm Elsa caused 7 wooden power poles to snap along the Longport Boulevard Causeway in Somers Point. There was no other notable damage nearby and all the poles had fallen in the same direction, thus this damage has been determined to have been caused directly by the strong winds from the tropical rain band that raced across the New Jersey Shore overnight. && EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the following categories: EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph EF4...Violent...166 to 200 mph EF5...Violent...>200 mph NOTE: The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the events and publication in NWS Storm Data. $$ Staarmann

OKX ELSA LSR reports include wind gusts. 000 NWUS51 KOKX 092132 LSROKX PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 532 PM EDT FRI JUL 9 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1145 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 W DARIEN 41.05N 73.52W 07/09/2021 FAIRFIELD CT PUBLIC MULTIPLE YARDS COMPLETELY FLOODED ON COVE ROAD NEAR VAN BUSKIRK AVENUE. WATER NEAR TOP OF SEVERAL VEHICLES. 1127 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 SW WEST HAVEN 41.26N 72.99W 07/09/2021 NEW HAVEN CT BROADCAST MEDIA LANDSLIDE COMPROMISING RAILROAD TRACKS NEAR CALLEGARI DRIVE IN WEST HAVEN. METRO-NORTH TRAINS BEING DIVERTED. 1125 AM TROPICAL STORM 4 NE CALVERTON 40.97N 72.71W 07/09/2021 SUFFOLK NY MESONET 64 MPH GUST AT MESONET STATION EW4141 BAITING HOLLOW. 1121 AM TROPICAL STORM WESTHAMPTON 40.85N 72.62W 07/09/2021 SUFFOLK NY ASOS 45 MPH AT WESTHAMPTON AIRPORT. 1100 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 S CENTERPORT 40.89N 73.37W 07/09/2021 SUFFOLK NY CO-OP OBSERVER SEVERAL STREETS ARE IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOODING. 1053 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 W MATINECOCK 40.87N 73.60W 07/09/2021 NASSAU NY TRAINED SPOTTER FLOODING ON VIOLA DRIVE IN GLEN COVE, WATER SEVERAL FEET DEEP. 1045 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 S PORTLAND 41.54N 72.63W 07/09/2021 MIDDLESEX CT BROADCAST MEDIA LEE STREET, PADDOCK ROAD, AND LYCEUM ROAD ARE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. 1043 AM FLASH FLOOD GLEN HEAD 40.85N 73.62W 07/09/2021 NASSAU NY BROADCAST MEDIA ROUTE 107 IS FLOODED WITH WATER FLOWING ACROSS THE ROAD AND SEVERAL VEHICLES DISABLED. 1040 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 WSW MERIDEN 41.53N 72.81W 07/09/2021 NEW HAVEN CT BROADCAST MEDIA FLOWING FLOOD WATERS UP TO THE HOOD OF CARS ON COOK AVE. 1035 AM TROPICAL STORM 4 NE CALVERTON 40.97N 72.71W 07/09/2021 SUFFOLK NY MESONET 51 MPH GUST AT MESONET STATION EW4141 BAITING HOLLOW. 1035 AM TROPICAL STORM NEW HYDE PARK 40.75N 73.66W 07/09/2021 NASSAU NY TRAINED SPOTTER LARGE TREE DOWN ON PROPERTY ON HERBERT DRIVE. 1030 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 WSW BRIDGEPORT 41.17N 73.23W 07/09/2021 FAIRFIELD CT BROADCAST MEDIA KINGS HIGHWAY EAST AT CHAMBERS STREET CLOSED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS DUE TO FLOODING. 1030 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 SW BRIDGEPORT 41.17N 73.23W 07/09/2021 FAIRFIELD CT BROADCAST MEDIA JOHNSON DRIVE IS CLOSED FROM BLACK ROCK TURNPIKE TO FISKE STREET. 1028 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 WNW WHITE PLAINS 41.03N 73.78W 07/09/2021 WESTCHESTER NY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS DOT REPORTS FLOODING ON THE BRONX RIVER PKWY IN BOTH DIRECTIONS BETWEEN SPRAIN BROOK PKWY AND EXIT 22 IN WHITE PLAINS. ALL LANES BLOCKED. 1019 AM TROPICAL STORM SHIRLEY AIRPORT 40.82N 72.87W 07/09/2021 SUFFOLK NY ASOS 41 MPH GUST AT SHIRLEY AIRPORT. 1017 AM TROPICAL STORM 4 ENE FRANKLIN 41.62N 72.07W 07/09/2021 NEW LONDON CT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS ROUTE 138 BUSHNELL HOLLOW ROAD CLOSED AT GRANDVIEW DRIVE BECAUSE OF A TREE DOWN WITH WIRES. 1003 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 NW NEW HAVEN 41.34N 72.98W 07/09/2021 NEW HAVEN CT FIRE DEPT/RESCUE FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTS 3 STRANDED MOTORISTS RESCUED FROM AMITY PLAZA AT WILBUR CROSS PKWY AND RT 63. 1000 AM FLASH FLOOD BRIDGEPORT 41.18N 73.22W 07/09/2021 FAIRFIELD CT EMERGENCY MNGR MULTIPLE ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING INCLUDING BISHOP AVE & CONNECTICUT AVE, LINCOLN AVE & ARLINGTON ST, GREGORY ST & COLUMBIA ST, SEAVIEW AVE & I95 EXIT RAMP, AND E WASHINGTON & E MAIN ST. 1000 AM FLASH FLOOD GLEN COVE 40.87N 73.63W 07/09/2021 NASSAU NY LAW ENFORCEMENT POLICE REPORT NUMEROUS FLOODED ROADWAYS THAT ARE IMPASSABLE. 0955 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 NW NEW HAVEN 41.33N 72.96W 07/09/2021 NEW HAVEN CT FIRE DEPT/RESCUE WEST ROCK AVE AT WHALLEY AVE IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. 0946 AM TROPICAL STORM 1 NW MERRICK 40.66N 73.57W 07/09/2021 NASSAU NY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS FALLEN TREE ON MEADOWBROOK STATE PKWY AT EXIT M7E, ALL LANES CLOSED. 0946 AM TROPICAL STORM 1 NW BABYLON 40.70N 73.34W 07/09/2021 SUFFOLK NY PUBLIC TREE LIMBS AND WIRES DOWN. 0936 AM FLASH FLOOD NEW HAVEN 41.31N 72.92W 07/09/2021 NEW HAVEN CT FIRE DEPT/RESCUE WATER STREET AT OLIVE STREET IS CLOSED DUE TO IMPASSABLE FLOOD WATERS. 0915 AM FLASH FLOOD BAYVILLE 40.91N 73.57W 07/09/2021 NASSAU NY PUBLIC SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED AND IMPASSABLE IN BAYVILLE DUE TO FLASH FLOODING. 0912 AM TROPICAL STORM OYSTER BAY 40.87N 73.53W 07/09/2021 NASSAU NY BROADCAST MEDIA MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON THE LONG ISLAND RAILROAD OYSTER BAY BRANCH. TRAIN SERVICE ON THE LINE WAS SUSPENDED. 0909 AM TROPICAL STORM 1 E STONY BROOK 40.91N 73.12W 07/09/2021 SUFFOLK NY MESONET 45 MPH GUST AT MESONET STATION EW5678 STONY BROOK. 0906 AM FLASH FLOOD STAMFORD 41.06N 73.54W 07/09/2021 FAIRFIELD CT FIRE DEPT/RESCUE FIRE UNITS ARE CURRENTLY OPERATING AT NUMEROUS INCIDENTS INVOLVING VEHICLES W/ OCCUPANTS STRANDED IN WATER. 0900 AM TROPICAL STORM 1 SW STAMFORD 41.01N 73.57W 07/09/2021 FAIRFIELD CT MESONET 42 MPH GUST AT MESONET STATION EW3387 GREENWICH. 0900 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW STAMFORD 41.01N 73.57W 07/09/2021 M42 MPH FAIRFIELD CT MESONET 42 MPH GUST AT MESONET STATION EW3387 GREENWICH. 0858 AM TROPICAL STORM 2 N STRATFORD 41.24N 73.13W 07/09/2021 FAIRFIELD CT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS CT DOT REPORTS ROUTE 15 SOUTHBOUND IS CLOSED WITH A TREE DOWN ON ROADWAY. 0851 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 2 N GLEN COVE 40.90N 73.63W 07/09/2021 M49 MPH NASSAU NY MESONET MESONET STATION XBAY BAYVILLE. 0850 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 NNW STAMFORD 41.03N 73.56W 07/09/2021 FAIRFIELD CT TRAINED SPOTTER VEHICLES STRANDED IN 2 FEET OF WATER ON BENJAMIN STREET. 0846 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 NNE DARIEN 41.07N 73.47W 07/09/2021 FAIRFIELD CT LAW ENFORCEMENT NUMEROUS ROADS ARE CLOSED IN DARIEN DUE TO HEAVY FLOODING. 0844 AM TROPICAL STORM BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 41.16N 73.13W 07/09/2021 FAIRFIELD CT ASOS 39 MPH GUST AT BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT. 0841 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 NE DARIEN 41.07N 73.46W 07/09/2021 FAIRFIELD CT LAW ENFORCEMENT VEHICLES STALLED IN FLOOD WATERS UNDER OVERPASS ON TOKENEKE ROAD IN DARIEN. 0818 AM NON-TSTM WND GST EATONS NECK 40.95N 73.40W 07/09/2021 M60 MPH SUFFOLK NY MESONET ELEVATION 71 FEET. 0818 AM TROPICAL STORM EATONS NECK 40.95N 73.40W 07/09/2021 SUFFOLK NY MESONET 60 MPH GUST AT EATONS NECK, ELEVATION 71 FEET. 0710 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 19 SSE EAST HAMPTON 40.69N 72.05W 07/09/2021 M45 MPH ANZ350 NY MESONET MESONET STATION 44017 19 SSE EAST HAMPTON. 0638 AM MARINE TSTM WIND EATONS NECK 40.95N 73.40W 07/09/2021 M43 MPH SUFFOLK NY MESONET MESONET STATION XEAT EATONS NECK. 0635 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 2 SSE EAST MORICHES 40.79N 72.75W 07/09/2021 M41 MPH SUFFOLK NY MESONET MESONET STATION XMOR EAST MORICHES CG. 0634 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 4 SE HAMPTON BAYS 40.84N 72.48W 07/09/2021 M41 MPH ANZ350 NY MESONET MESONET STATION XSHN SHINNECOCK. 0626 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 S CAPTREE STATE PARK 40.62N 73.26W 07/09/2021 M47 MPH SUFFOLK NY MESONET MESONET STATION XFIR FIRE ISLAND CG. 0624 AM TROPICAL STORM ISLIP AIRPORT 40.79N 73.10W 07/09/2021 SUFFOLK NY ASOS 39 MPH GUST AT KISP. 0618 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 2 N TOMPKINSVILLE 40.66N 74.06W 07/09/2021 M44 MPH ANZ338 NY MESONET MESONET STATION ROBN4 ROBBINS REEF, NJ. 0617 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 S BLUE POINT 40.73N 73.03W 07/09/2021 M46 MPH SUFFOLK NY MESONET MESONET STATION XBLU BLUE POINT. 0555 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSW FLATBUSH 40.63N 73.95W 07/09/2021 M43 MPH KINGS NY MESONET NYS MESONET STATION BKLN AT BROOKLYN COLLEGE STATION ELEVATION: 108 FT. 0551 AM TROPICAL STORM NYC/JFK 40.64N 73.76W 07/09/2021 QUEENS NY ASOS GUST OF 38 MPH AT ASOS STATION KJFK NYC/JFK AIRPORT. 0520 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 15 S ATLANTIC BEACH 40.37N 73.70W 07/09/2021 M45 MPH ANZ355 NY BUOY MESONET STATION 44065 15 S ATLANTIC BEACH. 0520 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 26 S ROBERT MOSES STATE 40.25N 73.16W 07/09/2021 M51 MPH ANZ373 NY BUOY GUST AT NOAA NDBC BUOY 44025 26 SSE ROBERT MOSES STATE PARK.

ELSA ONLY numbers. Public Information Statement Issued by NWS Upton, NY Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 000 NOUS41 KOKX 092016 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-100816- Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 416 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 ...ELSA PRECIPITATION TOTALS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Stamford 5.10 in 1050 AM 07/09 AWS Bridgeport Airport 4.09 in 0252 PM 07/09 ASOS Shelton 3.71 in 0255 PM 07/09 AWS Stratford 3.61 in 0300 PM 07/09 AWS Stamford 3.42 in 1108 AM 07/09 CWOP Greenwich 2.57 in 0301 PM 07/09 CWOP 3 N New Canaan 2.49 in 0300 PM 07/09 AWS Shelton 2.32 in 0259 PM 07/09 AWS Danbury 2.12 in 0251 PM 07/09 CWOP Fairfield 2.02 in 0700 AM 07/09 COCORAHS Ridgefield 1.90 in 0300 PM 07/09 AWS Weston 1.90 in 0300 PM 07/09 AWS Brookfield 1.78 in 0700 AM 07/09 COCORAHS 5.6 NE Danbury 1.73 in 0245 PM 07/09 HADS ...Middlesex County... Middlefield 5.43 in 0259 PM 07/09 AWS 3.3 N Moodus 4.22 in 0215 PM 07/09 HADS Durham 3.71 in 0255 PM 07/09 AWS Clinton 2.76 in 0247 PM 07/09 CWOP Higganum 2.35 in 0800 AM 07/09 COCORAHS Westbrook 2.27 in 0300 PM 07/09 CWOP ...New Haven County... Milford 5.78 in 1201 PM 07/09 CWOP Stony Creek 4.58 in 0258 PM 07/09 CWOP Branford 4.37 in 0255 PM 07/09 CWOP Guilford 4.30 in 0350 PM 07/09 COOP Hamden 4.18 in 0252 PM 07/09 CWOP New Haven 4.06 in 0300 PM 07/09 AWS East Haven 3.86 in 0257 PM 07/09 CWOP West Haven 3.70 in 0300 PM 07/09 AWS Meriden Airport 3.51 in 0253 PM 07/09 ASOS Bethany 3.18 in 0253 PM 07/09 CWOP 1.1 W Wallingford 2.62 in 0200 PM 07/09 HADS Waterbury Airport 2.14 in 0251 PM 07/09 AWOS ...New London County... Norwich 3.32 in 0255 PM 07/09 AWS New London 3.02 in 0255 PM 07/09 CWOP Lyme 2.77 in 0247 PM 07/09 CWOP Groton Airport 2.02 in 0256 PM 07/09 ASOS ...New Jersey... ...Bergen County... Tenafly 1.64 in 1056 AM 07/09 CWOP Teterboro Airport 1.61 in 1051 AM 07/09 ASOS New Milford 1.52 in 1105 AM 07/09 AWS Cresskill 1.45 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS Little Ferry 1.32 in 1055 AM 07/09 AWS Hackensack 1.17 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS Lodi 1.04 in 1045 AM 07/09 IFLOWS Bogota 1.02 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS ...Essex County... Orange Reservoir 2.44 in 1000 AM 07/09 IFLOWS Caldwell 1.92 in 0253 PM 07/09 ASOS West Orange 1.46 in 1105 AM 07/09 URBANET Newark 1.45 in 1109 AM 07/09 AWS Montclair 1.23 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS 0.6 SW Caldwell 1.08 in 1045 AM 07/09 IFLOWS Fairfield 1.05 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS ...Hudson County... Secaucus 1.82 in 0300 PM 07/09 AWS 1 ENE Jersey City 1.64 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS 1 SW Jersey City 1.61 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS Harrison 1.51 in 1109 AM 07/09 AWS Weehawken 1.23 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS ...Passaic County... Clifton 1.23 in 1105 AM 07/09 AWS 0.8 E West Paterson 1.16 in 0245 PM 07/09 HADS ...Union County... Linden Airport 2.01 in 0255 PM 07/09 AWOS Mountainside 1.77 in 0230 PM 07/09 IFLOWS Newark Airport 1.43 in 0251 PM 07/09 ASOS ...New York... ...Bronx County... Harlem 1.20 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS ...Kings County... Brooklyn 2.26 in 1105 AM 07/09 CWOP Prospect Park 1.70 in 0255 PM 07/09 AWS Brooklyn College 1.67 in 0300 PM 07/09 NYSM ...Nassau County... Matinecock 3.90 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS Levittown 3.79 in 1100 AM 07/09 CWOP Wantagh 3.27 in 1105 AM 07/09 NYSM Merrick 3.05 in 1200 PM 07/09 Trained Spotter Muttontown 2.93 in 1109 AM 07/09 AWS Glen Head 2.92 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS Bellmore 2.77 in 0300 PM 07/09 AWS Freeport 2.62 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS East Hills 2.39 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS Oyster Bay 2.36 in 0730 AM 07/09 CWOP Mineola 2.29 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS Rockville Centre 1.81 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS Searingtown 1.77 in 1109 AM 07/09 AWS ...New York County... Central Park 1.79 in 1051 AM 07/09 ASOS Midtown Manhattan 1.76 in 1105 AM 07/09 NYSM Washington Heights 1.45 in 0830 AM 07/09 AWS Battery Park 1.37 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS ...Orange County... Walden 1.49 in 0700 AM 07/09 COCORAHS US Military Academy 1.42 in 0155 PM 07/09 RAWS West Point 1.24 in 0300 PM 07/09 AWS 0.8 N Port Jervis 1.08 in 0700 AM 07/09 COOP ...Putnam County... Brewster 1.48 in 1105 AM 07/09 NYSM Mahopac 1.45 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS ...Queens County... Bellerose 1.65 in 1101 AM 07/09 CWOP NYC/La Guardia 1.41 in 1051 AM 07/09 ASOS NYC/JFK Airport 1.32 in 0251 PM 07/09 ASOS Kew Garden Hills 1.20 in 1105 AM 07/09 NYSM ...Richmond County... College of Staten Island 2.07 in 1105 AM 07/09 NYSM ...Rockland County... Pomona 1.87 in 0300 PM 07/09 AWS Blauvelt 1.67 in 0247 PM 07/09 CWOP Sloatsburg 1.34 in 0245 PM 07/09 CWOP Suffern 1.27 in 0300 PM 07/09 NYSM New City 1.21 in 0300 PM 07/09 AWS ...Suffolk County... Greenlawn 4.53 in 0254 PM 07/09 CWOP N. Babylon 4.24 in 0300 PM 07/09 CWOP Deer Park 3.80 in 1100 AM 07/09 NWS Employee Kings Park 3.79 in 0246 PM 07/09 CWOP Saint James 3.50 in 0255 PM 07/09 CWOP Stony Brook 3.44 in 0300 PM 07/09 NYSM Lake Ronkonkoma 3.30 in 0256 PM 07/09 CWOP North Babylon 3.08 in 0252 PM 07/09 CWOP Centerport 2.98 in 0700 AM 07/09 COOP Shirley Airport 2.37 in 0256 PM 07/09 ASOS Islip Airport 2.26 in 0256 PM 07/09 ASOS Eastport 1.98 in 0245 PM 07/09 RAWS Northport 1.97 in 0300 PM 07/09 CWOP Blue Point 1.96 in 0301 PM 07/09 CWOP Southold 1.95 in 0300 PM 07/09 NYSM Patchogue 1.82 in 0731 AM 07/09 COCORAHS Westhampton Airport 1.78 in 0253 PM 07/09 ASOS Montauk Airport 1.61 in 0254 PM 07/09 ASOS ...Westchester County... New Rochelle 1.79 in 1105 AM 07/09 AWS Rye 1.41 in 1109 AM 07/09 AWS Eastchester 1.34 in 1109 AM 07/09 AWS Pleasantville 1.29 in 1109 AM 07/09 AWS Mamaroneck 1.27 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS Somers 1.27 in 1105 AM 07/09 NYSM Elmsford 1.17 in 1109 AM 07/09 AWS 3 ESE Goldens Bridge 1.10 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS Irvington 1.07 in 0300 PM 07/09 AWS North Tarrytown 1.06 in 1109 AM 07/09 AWS Elmsford 1.00 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS &&

One sampler for my general closing on this thread. 5's and 6's, probably a few 7's not sampled by CoCorhas through the early Friday 3 day totals.

No time for reports/today. Noting SPC marginal risk today in the subforum. My guess, based on modeling, outside of ELSA TOR's early today, is for a possible spotty SVR event 5P-9P in the interior when time to recover from morning cloud. Have a day!

My plan is to begin a new thread around 9PM this evening, when time, Sunday the 11th through Saturday the 17th. Inclusive of FF producing thunderstorms Sun afternoon -Tuesday, with embedded wet microburst severe- then a better chance of widespread SVR Wed, FRI and/or Sat with the approaching cool front (some embedded FF). Heat Wave begins Tuesday or Wed and ends sometime next weekend, Rainfall: depends on repeat events, but widespread basic rainfall of 1/2" in the 7 day period, no big deal but isolated 6" possible due to PW Sun-due near 2", popping back up to near 2" Fri into Sat morning. Heat index near 100 Thu and or Fri. All in all, summer normal hot, but I think the bigger story will be FF producing storms and my guess is 3- possibly 5 more days of SVR reports in the forum. On some days the svr will be on the northern or southern fringe of our subforum but still the risk is there. BIG CAPE is one of the drivers. Bigger wind fields Wed and next Fro-Sat. DRY Hottest day may be next Thu??? That's my prelim framework. Will recheck this eve and with time, post it.

From OKX at 857PM: Two 4"+ only today!! UBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 857 PM EDT THU JUL 8 2021 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS OF RAINFALL OF 1.00 INCH OR GREATER TAKEN DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS, COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS, SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY ALSO IS AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC ********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL******************** LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE PROVIDER ...CONNECTICUT... ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... GREENWICH 1.57 IN 0801 PM 07/08 CWOP 5.6 NE DANBURY 1.53 IN 0745 PM 07/08 HADS ARMONK 1.50 IN 0800 PM 07/08 CWOP GREENWICH 1.17 IN 0801 PM 07/08 CWOP STAMFORD 1.11 IN 0750 PM 07/08 AWS DANBURY 1.00 IN 0758 PM 07/08 CWOP ...NEW JERSEY... ...BERGEN COUNTY... WALDWICK 4.92 IN 0750 PM 07/08 CWOP LODI 4.56 IN 0745 PM 07/08 IFLOWS NEW MILFORD 3.70 IN 0750 PM 07/08 AWS PARK RIDGE 3.64 IN 0800 PM 07/08 IFLOWS PARAMUS 3.21 IN 0754 PM 07/08 AWS HACKENSACK 2.59 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS TETERBORO AIRPORT 2.37 IN 0751 PM 07/08 ASOS RIVER VALE 2.21 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS FAIR LAWN 2.07 IN 0800 PM 07/08 CWOP 0.6 W OAKLAND 2.01 IN 0800 PM 07/08 HADS 0.6 SW HILLSDALE 1.88 IN 0715 PM 07/08 IFLOWS BOGOTA 1.86 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS CRESSKILL 1.50 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS 1 SSE FRANKLIN LAKES 1.44 IN 0745 PM 07/08 IFLOWS HAWORTH 1.35 IN 0750 PM 07/08 NJWXNET EMERSON 1.30 IN 0730 PM 07/08 CWOP OAKLAND 1.30 IN 0755 PM 07/08 CWOP OAKLAND 1.27 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS OAKLAND 1.25 IN 0800 PM 07/08 CWOP OAKLAND 1.15 IN 0756 PM 07/08 CWOP LITTLE FERRY 1.07 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS LEONIA 1.04 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS ...ESSEX COUNTY... 0.6 SW CALDWELL 1.40 IN 0745 PM 07/08 IFLOWS MONTCLAIR 1.14 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS WEST CALDWELL 1.04 IN 0755 PM 07/08 CWOP FAIRFIELD 1.03 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS ...HUDSON COUNTY... HOBOKEN 1.62 IN 0757 PM 07/08 CWOP 1 ENE JERSEY CITY 1.46 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS 1 SW JERSEY CITY 1.43 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS WEEHAWKEN 1.26 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS ...PASSAIC COUNTY... PASSAIC 3.83 IN 0801 PM 07/08 CWOP 0.8 SE POMPTON LAKES 1.76 IN 0730 PM 07/08 HADS CLIFTON 1.66 IN 0750 PM 07/08 AWS HAWTHORNE 1.55 IN 0750 PM 07/08 CWOP CLIFTON 1.02 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS ...NEW YORK... ...BRONX COUNTY... FORDHAM 3.55 IN 0845 PM 07/08 NYSM PELHAM PARKWAY HOUSES 2.73 IN 0800 PM 07/08 CWOP HARLEM 2.48 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS ...NASSAU COUNTY... GREAT NECK 1.64 IN 0755 PM 07/08 CWOP LEVITTOWN 1.17 IN 0750 PM 07/08 AWS THOMASTON 1.12 IN 0754 PM 07/08 AWS ...NEW YORK COUNTY... WASHINGTON HEIGHTS 2.94 IN 0750 PM 07/08 AWS CENTRAL PARK 2.27 IN 0751 PM 07/08 ASOS MIDTOWN MANHATTAN 1.79 IN 0755 PM 07/08 NYSM MANHATTAN 1.73 IN 0800 PM 07/08 CWOP 1 S MIDTOWN MANHATTAN 1.20 IN 0750 PM 07/08 URBANET ...ORANGE COUNTY... US MILITARY ACADEMY 1.44 IN 0755 PM 07/08 RAWS WEST POINT 1.15 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS NEWBURGH 1.11 IN 0756 PM 07/08 CWOP MONTGOMERY AIRPORT 1.04 IN 0754 PM 07/08 AWOS ...PUTNAM COUNTY... BREWSTER 1.53 IN 0755 PM 07/08 NYSM ...QUEENS COUNTY... OAKLAND GARDENS 1.12 IN 0750 PM 07/08 CWOP BELLEROSE 1.03 IN 0751 PM 07/08 CWOP ...ROCKLAND COUNTY... POMONA 1.87 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS NANUET 1.62 IN 0730 PM 07/08 IFLOWS BLAUVELT 1.27 IN 0801 PM 07/08 CWOP UPPER NYACK 1.02 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS 0.9 N MONTEBELLO 1.01 IN 0730 PM 07/08 HADS ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... NORTHPORT 1.18 IN 0750 PM 07/08 CWOP SMITHTOWN 1.02 IN 0800 PM 07/08 CWOP ...WESTCHESTER COUNTY... MIDLAND PARK 3.72 IN 0745 PM 07/08 IFLOWS EASTCHESTER 2.17 IN 0754 PM 07/08 AWS TARRYTOWN 2.07 IN 0747 PM 07/08 CWOP ELMSFORD 2.02 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS ELMSFORD 1.82 IN 0754 PM 07/08 AWS IRVINGTON 1.74 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS NEW ROCHELLE 1.63 IN 0801 PM 07/08 CWOP NEW ROCHELLE 1.39 IN 0750 PM 07/08 AWS WHITE PLAINS AIRPORT 1.22 IN 0756 PM 07/08 ASOS RYE 1.21 IN 0754 PM 07/08 AWS NORTH TARRYTOWN 1.17 IN 0754 PM 07/08 AWS ...NEW JERSEY... ...MARITIME STATIONS... JERSEY CITY 1.97 IN 0753 PM 07/08 CWOP ...NEW YORK... CITY ISLAND 1.85 IN 0802 PM 07/08 CWOP

I have not checked any NWS discussions... but fwiw, while this mornings boxed late morning TR+ ne PA into se NYS and NW CT had some semblance of a PRE, that wasn't it and I doubt very much if anyone is talking about PRE in our area, BUT if they are, I'd like to know which discussion. Thread post outlined the researcher criteria. The even stronger WAR did not permit the cool front down here so wasn't able to gin it up here. Instead, we get the real deal TC.

For those of us with wells and very very fortunate to have a pool... no need to use the well water and burn out the pump. Hydrangeas having a fab summer as well as all the flowers around here in nw NJ.

You'll probably be right but only takes one sunny day thru 5P with a west wind...esp Thu, Fri ??? I'm still leaving the door open but it's not my feature for the coming week. Instead increasingly moistened ground, with rounds of Heavy storms, a few SVR wet microbursts. That seems probable in my view... thru 12z/8 modeling.