wdrag

@donsutherland1 and others (@bluewave etal) who may look at this predictive data a lot... has the EPS or GEFS been better at LR predictions of the AO, NAO, PNA, EPO lets say at 10 days, and 16 days? I see some differences in the these ensembles...the GEFS overall a little more favorable for winter. Not sure who said winter over? Doesn't look that way to me yet into mid Feb. Maybe it is over, and I don'/didn't realize it??? Thanks, Walt

Yes...it's going to build a bit more through 6 am. Intermittent. For CP: Finally!!! ...THE CENTRAL PARK NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 26 2021... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1869 TO 2021 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 34 356 PM 72 1950 39 -5 46 MINIMUM 31 127 PM 2 1871 27 4 38 AVERAGE 33 33 0 42 PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.05 2.19 1986 0.11 -0.06 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 2.14 3.09 -0.95 1.91 SINCE DEC 1 6.75 7.09 -0.34 9.00 SINCE JAN 1 2.14 3.09 -0.95 1.91 SNOWFALL (IN) TODAY 0.1 12.3 2011 0.2 -0.1 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 0.1 5.7 -5.6 2.3 SINCE DEC 1 10.6 10.5 0.1 4.8 SINCE JUL 1 10.6 10.8 -0.2 4.8 SNOW DEPTH 0

Wantage: steady light snow the past 45 minutes and 0.2" new with 0.7. roads coated 26.8F.

Is that 0.6" total?

slippery anywhere... did the advisory return?

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point: had 0.5" in 6 hours topped with a little freezing drizzle. now snow has started again at 330P 27/26. Route 206 into southern Sussex County NJ through 145P was about the same, a couple degrees warmer in Byram, just n of I80. TreatEd roads were wet except once in a while slush covered in the short showery bursts of snow. Untreated roads are being plowed up here in Wantage. (that's the way it is done here).

Thanks for all the obs now and future. Been a discouraging start in Wantage with lots of grauple but finally 3/4s- moderate side flake snow and 0.2" here now. 27/20. all surfaces covered except retreated roads wet with slight cover on edges where un treated. Unsure how long we'll last as snow here in Wantage. I've checked back on the NAM and GFS forecast soundings from 06z and a little perplexed on the snow pellets at a max T of -2C in the Sparta sounding. So.. 3KNAM continues colder than the GFS. Am thinking the lower end of my ranges, due to poor start. Bottom line: mixed slippery event in progress at least NW of NYC.

10A... steady light snow and snow pellets. Vsby down to ~ 2mi. Trace visible on the ground.

Wantage Nj: flurries and mostly small snow pellets began around 9A. 27.5/15.4 vsby still 7+.

No additional confidently stated info for this potential, except the 00z/25 EFS and EPS are almost identical evolving the 500MB LOW into New England. Still could see a southward displacement? WPC overnight D6-7 continues >30% risk of 3+" both dates for our forum; just N and W of NYC. I could easily get into their dailies to to focus, so I've an unfocused D4-7 posted here. Check the bottom two (D6-7) if interested.

Good Tuesday morning. A minor widespread event will begin in the NYS, NYC, NJ/PA portion of the forum 830AM-1230PM with a burst of snow-sleet. From there, it's modeling and our guesses. The start in the CT and remaining LI is probably 1130A-130P and there too a burst of snow to start. How its unfolds LI later today-tonight? I do think it will get slippery there and I expect at least 1/2" snow NYC-LI possibly 2-3" in spots of LI NYC by Noon Wednesday, though I might be on the high side. The NAM3K sounding doesn't look very warm to me and its significantly colder than the GFS. So, it's all yours. Have added the following graphics: 1) NWS 5AM snowfall forecast, 2) he 00z/25 SPC HREF glaze forecast (might be too high on the northern edge which looks all snow sleet to me), 3) the NWS 08z/25 ensemble prob for 1+" of snow, f 4) the NWS 08z/25 ensemble prob for measurable freezing rain, 5) the SPC HREF snow forecast (see legend for amounts 1"+) and 6) finally the 06z/25 NAM3K forecast for Sparta NJ giving an idea of how cold this forecast is...possbily a little robust on qpf. All yours. Will be off line 1215P-330P.

Hmmm? I'd be a little cautious about traveling untreated surfaces midday-tonight.

mPing should be interesting. The advisory for a mix of wintry elements will probably start with a burst of decent snowfall rates between sunrise and 2PM before a probable change to rain, freezing rain or sleet on LI and I80 southward during the afternoon and possibly back to ice or snow early Wednesday. The i84 corridor should be mostly snow, if not all snow. The region southeast of I95 in NJ after starting as snow or sleet should transition to plain rain by Tuesday night but it might be marginal for icing in Monmouth-Middlesex counties near the colder air sitting astride I80-LI. This I believe is the first expected widespread winter weather advisory event dating back to at least January 3. There's a small chance for a period of flurries along I195 to maybe near I78 in NJ between midnight and 4am but the main event in the NYC forum begins during the daylight hours Tuesday.

Agreed,,, tho i haven't seen the ptype... there is a chance that 70% or more of this pcpn north of I80 will be all snow. The only reason i see sleet in far nw NJ is that the saturated sounding after 00z is all below 700mb and min temp in that column about -7C. Maybe not enough ice nuclei for snow. Uncertain but it's also all below freezing in Sparta. The first 1-5 hours of this event may have some decent lift and snowfall rates of nearly 1/2"/hr before the mix. I don't know if anyone noticed, but a couple of models are increasing qpf across the forum and I think that will be right. I think the EC and NAM are seeing developing low pressure late Tue s of 44025 and the associated cyclonic circulation may enhance qpf into the 0.3-0.5" range, esp LI. The NAEFS is still down a little so no guarantee that the 18z EC/NAM are correct. Back tomorrow morning.

Weather service collaboration should catch the bulk of these synoptic scale (low pressures) events, especially within 24 hours.

will start the obs nowcast thread at 5a Tue, for this minor event. Should be interesting midday.

I can live with snowfall #'s presented here except it look s a little low CT. I'd like more snow but if sleet/freezing rain/rain depending on location get involved, then the big trim as posted herein. From what I can tell this has slippery on all untreated surfaces almost from the start on Tuesday and a possible refreeze Tue night along the margins where it rises to 33-34F later day or eve. I think the darker yellow ice #'s might be a touch high but jury out. Bottom line...some sleet or freeIng rain appears to be coming across NJ, LI (ice LI temp dependent.) Back in the morning.

Because sleet is treated as snow acc at 10 to 1 and it's usually much less, maybe 2.5 or 3 to 1? Bottom line, inflated. Best to start with positive snow depth change and think it out form there. Or if you have the model data... monitor the EC etc snow depth change and use that as a bottom #.

Minor for snow, and an advisory would possibly not have been issued for ONLY the snow amounts posted, but we're dealing with frozen ground, snow and maybe sleet/freezing rain mix, and maybe e just a little more qpf than what is modeled if the inverted trough proves real. Also, this is a at least a climo advisory event. Might need to deice aircraft. I don't think is melt on contact unless treated surface. Jury may be out on final snow. I'll post the CoCoRAHS finals either Wed or Thu. Probably 32F or below through the entire event nw of I95 and maybe even NYC/LI. NAM BL temps 2C at midnight tomorrow night might be okay at the top of the BL but if the wind is turning north...then I suspect colder CT airmass seeps down across the sound. So yes, minor- however, hazardous untreated.

Thanks... I think NYC is in it now. Impressive collection of EPS lows s of LI 00z/Wed. Nice inflow potential.

WPC Dayshift outlook for Feb 1: Let's stay w general ensembles and hope for the best.

Hi!. The following is a start for the advisory. I think it will eventually need expansion to all of LI. At 6P, I'll add the new regional snowfall forecast. mPing and icy and or/snow covered pavements here we come for a manageable minor advisory event, that still has 1+" snow possibilities for LI, especially if we get the backwash (sewd moving) after 7AM Wednesday, associated with the developing low s of LI. Think we may see some surprises on qpf over 1/4" on LI. TBD.

Understand completely: May be the 12 and 18z 3K NAM can lock in on our qpf and types? That and RGEM HRDPS would be worthy of following. EC already steady now on I80 north.

637AM Sunday: : headline updated to Major near blizzard and added power outages. Major near blizzard Nor'easter coming. I would not plan on driving anywhere on Monday in northern NJ, ne PA, se NYS and ditto CT Monday afternoon-night, MA Monday night. NYC my guess is a foot, possibly more before mixed Monday night. Otherwise, amounts between 1-2 feet from I78 northward with lesser 8-18 inches CT and MA where rain/sleet invades later Monday night. Isolated 30" possible nw NJ, or ne PA into the Catskills by the time this storm ends early Wednesday.. Drifts 3-4 feet. Power outages possible Monday afternoon and night from northern NJ northeastward to CT and Boston from a combination of heavy wetter (heart attack for the hear tcondition vulnerable) snow and northeast wind gusts of 40-55 MPH. Snow starts central NJ around 3 PM, northern NJ-ne PA 6-10P, CT around dawn Monday. Worst of the storm NJ/PA sunrise Monday-midnight Monday night, CT Monday afternoon-night. Coastal flooding may be major near the midnight Monday high tide cycle? Follow NWS. ---- 615AM Saturday: Imperfect probably messy big snowstorm is coming, imperfect in that modeling the past 24 hours is drifting north and suggesting a dry slot late Monday will allow enough warming for sleet (rain LI) to I80 including all of I95 Monday night so that the stratiform burst of 1-2"/hr Heavy snow during Monday, especially afternoon, becomes bands of snow in the interior late Monday night-Tuesday, some areas probably recovering Tuesday with several hours of no precip. So, my own single forecaster point of failure but use of ensembles could be too pessimistic about the sleet/rain intrusion. For NYC... I'll start with 6" with possibly as much 1/2" late 31. Hope that its mostly snow after 00z/2 but even if, snow ratios may be down to 7 or 8 to 1?? I dont' want to cap NYC since am uncertain about dry slot. Sleet/rain/freezing rain may be getting involved Philly to Toms River during Monday morning. There may be a period of near blizzard conditions on LI centered Monday afternoon? BUT, I don't want to call it a blizzard for fear of easily missing criteria. The point of this paragraph, is that I think Monday, especially afternoon should be the worst period of travel and if models continue this, in future cycles through Sunday morning, then I think it would be a recommended no travel for that 6-12 hour period to limit accidents and allow plows to maintain passable-less slippery conditions for first responders. Snow may be wet on LI/Monmouth-northern Ocean Counties in NJ if 6" at 32-33F, we would have power outages... still too early to be sure. CT I84... continue to notice some multimodeled lesser snowfall there, so while I think a big snow there, cautioning myself. Coastal flooding: see NWS statements/flood watches already posted and no change from yesterday with the late Monday evening high tide cycle most favored for flooding (within 2 hours either side of the time of high tide) Graphics are the 00z/30 EPS as a base amount, the 00z/30 EC IR prediction for 06z/Tue showing the dry slot penetration, and the NWS 09z/30 prob for 6" or more of snow by 12z Tues. That's the reasoning basis for this update.

Other than band or two of flurries in the eastern part of our forum Thursday, it looks like this will be too little too late.