wdrag

Well, Fred did come up through the ne USA with spotty 4-5" rains in e PA, lso n Central CT with little or no rain se of I95. Iso svr occurred last night in our area with best SVR apparently just w in e PA including an EF1. So my short summary includes: CoCoRaHs 1 day in the CT part of our subforum (I know most think HFD belongs to the New Eng group but our subforum map includes up to the CT RVR). Plus the 1 day Radar-sensor totals that are smoothed. Please use the Legend for amounts.

504AM update on Friday (24 hours after initial issuance). Withdrew from the title INDIRECT. --- 333PM Friday about 33 hours after issuance. Changed title to Moderate - MAJOR impacts, tags changed from tropical weather to hurricane gusts, heavy rain changed to flooding rains, RC and CF remain as they were It is becoming more apparent via modeling through the 12z/20 cycle, tho follow NHC, that this storm wants to turn northwest and make landfall anywhere between Block Island to Sandy Hook. Where and intensity? IFFFF Henri still passes east of Montauk, that will be fortunate for LI/CT. Follow NHC, and updated collaborated models and experienced statistical output of Tropical verification. Strongest gusts and largest waves & storm surge should be east of the center on the Atlantic side of the the storm, but beware all the east and northeast facing inlets LI Sound. RC obviously dangerous, and possibly even for experienced surfers. SHOULD BE ZERO casualties due to RC and high Surf. There is enough info out there now that asks us be smart about living safely. Wind: potential from a combination of squall gusts 40 (to possibly ~ 65kt) and preceding heavy rains near and east of the center track, to uproot and snap fully leaved trees, with 'potential' for long duration power outages. Therefore east of the center track, charge your phones, have fuel ready for generators (outdoor exhaust only) and maybe rent a couple of movies since along and east of the center internet connectivity may be lost. TOR (s): maybe? mainly northeast quad of Henri Sunday morning. Rainfall: Looks like 3" near and west of the center of passage, but pockets of surprise amounts elsewhere in the interior? Max by Tuesday in the lingering weakened remnant state??? Maybe isolated 10" somewhere??? Coastal Flooding: dependent on timing with the high of the tide cycles this weekend. This will be a pretty big storm, with varying impacts. Worthy of monitoring updates and being cautious about outdoor activity late Saturday-Sunday. ---- Below from Thursday 5AMish 8/19/21 Follow NHC and NWS collaborated guidance on the path and impacts of Henri upon our NYC subforum. Astronomiically higher than normal tides combined with some onshore flow and building seas should result in pockets of significant coastal coastal flooding this weekend. Presuming the direct path of Henri remains e of LI, we are probably spared a tide cycle of major coastal flooding. Vulnerable regions to typical minor coastal flooding should monitor NWS statements for an event that may be larger than the typical minor events encountered through the year Rip Current: Appears to me difficult to avoid the risk of dangerous rip currents this weekend. What might be good for surfers as exposed Atlantic shores coastal waves build to 6 feet, will be life threatening for most, if not all swimmers. Follow NWS and local official guidance including that of life guards. Heavy rain: The combination of a trough(s) extending northwest of Henri and PWAT nearing 2" again, may develop pockets of intense slow moving showers well northwest of Henri's passage. There could be isolated 3" amounts in our NYC subforum. Henri winds: 34 KT gusts probably remain east of our subforum but follow NHC guidance. 19/457AM

Thanks for keeping this going .. was on vacation Ocean City MD Sat-yesterday. Will add summaries of Co CoRahs and LSR's this eve. Lots of catch up here. Had a welcome 1.06" here in this part of Wantage NJ.

Well, I think we now know Fred remnant moisture and potential for squalls, will cross our area, Wednesday night-Thursday morning. Iso 5+ probably west of our subforum. Gusts are modeled by the 12z/17 EC, HRRR and HRRX of 25-35 kt (have seen iso 40+ but in the Poconos, sometime later Wednesday night> SPC as of this afternoon has a marginal risk for us. No big deal but it is decaying TC (Fred) related. The first shot of heavy qpf (Tuesday) apparently will have occurred n DE/s PHL area and spotty elsewhere e PA, which also reduces potential for iso 5+ in our subforum. 329P/17

Just taking one at a time... added excessive rain POTENTIAL outlook for tomorrow.

Some guidance on Fred remains. This thread remains viable for spotty 5+ by Fri night. Added 00z/16 EC EPS 850 wind showing a nice pocket of convergence southerly flow near LI Thursday, also the 09z/16 EC OP with two PW pools near 2". One approaching NYC Tue-Tue night and the second Fred infusion 24 hours aft, which arrives Thu and only slowly departs Fri or Sat. Also added the 00z/16 EC OP 850Vort, which shows a sewd extending lobe from possible decaying FRED 850 MB center near BFD later THU, down to nw NJ. Going to rain. How much and where...please follow NWS WPC which now had 1.5" in the western part of subforum by Fri eve.

Added the qpf...few 3's and 4's in NJ, saw no 6's in CoCoRahs but am pretty sure a 5 had to occur. Whole thread was too strong on heat, maybe a touch on qpf.

As of the 00z/15 cycle...looks like the two PW pools will advance newd across the NYC subforum by Fri night, with spotty big qpf, and as per WPC now, 1/2-1.25" general. Worthy of monitoring. Have a good Sunday!

Busted CFP rainfall far in advance with CFP, however will add the totals and provide an update by Monday morning. Had two good days of big heat, but this was not as expected on the initial expectations ~ the 4th...fortunately posted as "possible" long duration heat wave.

12z/13 EC cycle suggests 850 VT curls n-ne-e across NJ on the 20th. PW comes up in two batches, the first with weekend pooling over the Delmarva, the second with Freddie remnants. We shall see if lift provides some yield of the potential double dose middle of next week

Time for the 12z/13 EC to back off on the bigger qpf tomorrow as per rather meek NAM USA models. 06z still looks juicy up this way to I80 anyway for Sat.

See no reason to be dissapointed in the evolving pattern and progress of PWAT pools (near the oncoming CFP, and then ahead of remnant Fred). 722A/13

Another band of showers and strong thunderstorms 11P-3A for parts of NJ/NYS.... w NJ may hear their dogs barking sometime between 11P-1A and maybe iso SVR. No other changes to Fri-Sat expectations. Haven't seen any evening RTP's for easy MAXT summary. Walt

CoCoRAHS yesterday. Max ants 8/8-12-12z, 3.5-4.3" on Co RAHS undoubtedly heavier per wxunderground in a few spots.

MAX HI in CP today was 101. Max T in EWR at least 97.

So the bow passed s of Wantage NJ. Very few power outages n part of the County. Wantage NJ 4 sw (our home) Max G 28 MPH 408P 0.09 rainfall and now at 427P, still 85F at 740' MSL.

Have started a low confidence thread since the impacts could be significant for part of our area. Ensembles imply that whatever the remnants of Fred, they track northward into the eastern USA with its own PWAT blob and potential for squally gusts of 30-40 knots passing into our very close to our area PA/NJ/LI southward to the Delmarva during the middle or end of next week. Indirectly and of interest to me is that the seeming evolving pattern will have a separate moisture blob somewhere in VA-MD, parked there by the Saturday morning CFP in our NYC subforum. That separate blob of moisture, I think, has a good chance of being pushed northward, into our area early next week, well ahead of the Fred remnants. IFFFFF, we get both blobs of RH overriding the northward drifting warm front, I think we'd be talking over 5" of rain somewhere in the mid Atlantic states. So at this early early stage as my own heads up: Do we see only the advance frontal moisture arrive next week, or do we receive leftover Fred moisture (possibly two fairly large rain events)? Added 00z/12 deterministic single member EC PWAT for early next week showing northward advancing moisture pools.

Good Thursday morning all, Will add and post CoCoRAHS #'s for the past few days (late today). In the meantime, Max HI in NYC ydy, despite not making 90 (officially) was 100...well above WPC (after heat finally breaking through the Sun-Tue coastal low Delaware River pseudo warm frontal delay). Now we can go for 105 HI in NYC today, and temps at EWR both today and tomorrow 98ish (or whatever you think). No doubt this event will place late June as a lesser event. We're dealing with 3 days HI near 105 in the I95 corridor of NJ. Don't have time to look at every number but the potential continues for 90F heat in NJ thru midday Sat. SVR (scattered) I think is a pretty good bet for the region along and n of I80 between 5P and 11P today. Graphic attached. More heavy storms late Fri and then leftover showers and storms Sat (especially NJ LI southward. Will begin a Fred moisture thread shortly. Also added some WPC max HI guidance for NYC from previous days. This is why when outlooking potential hazardous events, we need to consider blended statistical guidance as muted but a consideration as part of the briefing package.

95 EWR and PHL today, 92 LGA, 89 NYC. Will try to add some #s tomorrow on qpf. It's adding up.

Monitor the W PA convection: Looks like a little self generating convective complex with a cool pool aft, SPC added SVR potential in eastern PA and I could see a few SVR in our area, esp NJ between 5P-midnight. Stripe of mid 70s dew point is a feed near I95. HI in the upper 90s to near 100 in NJ at 1P. Modeling doesn't look too good on this complex. Walt

Some of the numbers from the 12z/11 NAM BL temp suggest 98-100F at EWR Thu-Fri.

0.22 Wantage. No watering this morning and no lightning so our dog didn’t bark. Sun coming out now. Big furnace for 3 days. Good luck NYC and urban centers non marine areas.

Decent rainfall of 1/4"+ past half hour nw NJ.

Edited-winnowed my botched Aug 4 thread title window down to the probable reality at 440AM. My botch on Aug 8-10 due to unanticipated impact of the coastal low. Longer range NWS NDFD-MOS was better on lower HI for Mon-Tue. This morning: Modeling doesn't seem to have much clue on what's going on. Apparently a decent trigger for heavy showers continues across the subforum. Looks to me like CoCoRahs should have a couple of 5+ amounts for the entire thread period of Aug 4-11, by the time of Thursdays reports. My guess is we'll see some heavy convection late today-this eve across ne PA-nNJ-se NYS in the hot air with potential for wet microburst wind damage and iso 2" rain in an hours time. Thu-Fri: My guess is that these two days will rival the heat and HI of late June (29th-30th). I can see a max T NYC of 95-98, and EWR 98-100. HI pushing 105 both days. SPC has marginal risk Thu-Fri and so the wet microburst SVR looms for parts of the area. CAPE looks possibly the largest of the summer late Fri? Modeling still debating Saturday: but EC has heat wave continuing parts of the area and PW 2+" lingering into Sat morning. After that?? The Canadian trough is not poking south so much any more. Cools later Saturday... FRED, might be a problem for NJ-LI with moisture here 18th-19th and even a big swell if it gets stuck off the Delmarva with gale gusts just to our south. Worthy of monitoring but no thread from myself, at least not yet. 5A/11.

Should be about to roll on a 4-5 day heat wave EWR, 3-4D POU-NYC ending later Sat. HI projections 100-105 Wed-Fri and maybe near 100 Sat. Max T with 850T 20-21C should make 97 in EWR, maybe a touch higher dependent on heavy rainfall. EWR could begin Heat wave today tho marginal... it will probably get to 90 just a couple of miles west of EWR today. This mornings heavy showers on radar threatens to make to NYC, tho modeling has most of it I78 south. SVR: SPC has us in marginal risk Thu and the D4 rarity this time of year, SLIGHT RISK already into NE PA. TT modeled by op EC into the lower 50s Thu-FRI parts of the area. Presuming a trigger, should be some hailers (heat may melt the big stuff down to dime or less), and of course wet microbursts, despite wind fields below 30KTS, below 500MB. Possibly the best days of SVR are Frir or Sat. The usual big qpf amounts in pockets. Not only SVR potential, but a few pockets of FF, especially NJ/se NYS. ISO 6+ by Saturday night in a couple spots, inclusive of the past couple of days, esp NJ. BIG CAPE is the feed for FF. Regarding our next TC: It threatens big PWAT - moisture contribution 18th-20th, especially s of I80, even if worn and torn coming up into the eastern USA. Depends on the ridging lifting northward to the north of the Great Lakes. The more it lifts, the further north remnants move. Finally, it should be shredded eastward. No thread till have time to be sure. Am offline most of the rest of today. Have a good one. Walt