wdrag

Will check the CoCoRaHs two day at 10am. Don't know.

Probably an example of why we can't buy into one model that shows what we want, but just ride out all the variations and try to smooth out to a reasonable expectation of reality. I don't think that EC cycle will be mirrored on it's 12z/12 run. If it shows consistency, there will be lots of chatter but for now, conservative is best, imo.

Added to this thread (a copy of my private FB post earlier this morning) as a hold for the main threads. Focuses on the I84 corridor. Good Friday morning everyone - Feb 12! Lots of wintry elements coming from Baltimore to the Canadian border late Saturday the 13th-Friday the 19th. Then after Friday the 19th, it warms up a bit and this spate of frequent ice and snow events should relax to the more normal 3-4 day separation. I84 corridor sometime late Saturday -Vaelntines Day: periods of light snow, sleet and maybe even freezing rain. Minor but because of ice, it may be advised? Late Monday the 15th-Tue the 16th: a significant advisable-warnable extensive ice event coming. Could turn into snow for the I84 corridor? Modeling all over the place for this. Recently thought 6+ there but have to back down because off possible warming aloft? I just don't know. Thursday the 18th into Friday the 19th: A potentially warnable dangerous ice event coming to the I84 corridor. May even be warm enough for rain to eventually get involved for a short time, but this could end as snow later Friday the 19th. NWS ensemble graphics. Best chance of icing 7AM Saturday-7AM Sunday (see I-95 Baltimore area toward NYC), then the best chance of icing Valentines Sunday itself which is close to LI; finally the chance of 3+" of snow on the 16th, also the 18th = both with highest chance I84 northward. Just use the legend for the chance.

Good morning everyone, I'll get to the thread updates by 9AM ish. If i had to do over again... I'd lump the 13th-19th as one messy wintry period with a a wide ranging spread of solutions every day. I do think NJ/E PA will see wintry precip every day (13,14,15,16, 18, and maybe 19). At least 5 of the 7 days with 17th being mostly likely the driest day and the 19th the least certain for wintry). NYC/CT/se NYS might escape the 13th.. Precip on the 13th,14th should be just light. late 15-16 much more important, and the biggest scoop probably on the18th-19th. Snow axis for every ensemble cycles on the EPS has focused PA-NYS-Central and northern New England with amounts breathing up and down with each cycle. That means the subforum is on the southern edge where leaning on snowfall for more than a couple inches s of I84 could be a big mistake. However the southern edge of that axis should be a lot of ice with rain reserved mainly for a part of the 19th. The EC take on 18th-19th could be a one cycle aberration. I'm being careful by not buying into this, until I see two or three successive cycles of similar snowy scenario. Right now the NAEFS does not support the EC. 539A/12

May come in two pieces 18 and 19... instead of one stronger system. If that happens, going to be colder surface, at least inland. Precip rates may be too heavy for heavier FRAM glaze but I have to think at pretty good chance of a quarter inch of glaze coming this 5 day period, interior east-northeast slope high terrain. Worthy of monitoring. I'm not convinced by current modeling that it cant snow the first 6-12 hours on the 18th along I84. If it further warms aloft, then that snow won't happen.

I've no confident change to the topic as updated at 830AM and reassess tomorrow morning. The 14th event is light, 15th?, the 16th might not be as heavy as some of the models which may leave it colder and more snow? 18th-19th... think heaviest qpf since our Feb 1 event. It looks pretty cold at the surface with generally primary low pressures, so far, along our coasts for this entire period per 12z/11 NAEFS. Probably not much snow along I80-Li, especially 18th-19th (replaced by sleet, freezing rain and on LI and coastal NJ.. rain).

Will recheck tomorrow morning ~7A; for now now change to the 8AM updated thinking. Ice has to be in the mix and snowfall limited to the I84 corridor. Max amount 4" and quite possibly only 1-2" there with ice south of that in the subforum. Light, probably mixed sleet/freezing rain, snow event.

Good point... I just ignore those numbers. NWS when it publishes a map of actual snowfall, usually filters out erroneous reports. These go into Watch, Warning, Advisory verification.

My guess is typos, OR combined several days-events? Probably typos. I hope CoCoRaHs has a filbert check or someone who checks these. I don't know.

CoCoRaHs mapping at about 11A for the event. general 1-3" mostly 1"s and 2"s for the heart of our subforum, at least for there reported data. As per previous posters: CPK: 1.3" EWR: 2.4" JFK: 2.2" LGA: 1.2" ISP: 1.8"

I can live with that. Thanks.

Ranks tied for 13th Feb heaviest. Thanks.

807AM Thursday the 11th. One event closing out this morning and the the OBS thread will have a CoCoRAHS post around 11A, and a two day summary Saturday at 10AM. Whats coming? I dropped the wind event from the original post on the 5th and also the coldest of the season NYC. Nothing the 12th (my prior concern but unmodeled). 13th.. appears snow or sleet develops late Saturday, probably after dark and ends sometime Valentines Day. Details to be determined. Current modeled warming aloft near 850 MB suggests mostly sleet/freezing rain south of I84 with any snow snow accums in the bulk of the forum under 1" (if anything more than two tenths inch); with 1-4" snow accumulations reserved for the I84 corridor. This is modeled as generally light and appears to be an advisory event due to the probableice mix southeast of I84. My concern is that modeling of the warming aloft in our subforum I78 northward may be too much, which would allow for a little more snow than now modeled. Jury out. I'm awaiting further model cycles. These impressions include seeing op cycles through 06z/11.

Anyone know what NYC-CP received this morning? Thanks, Walt

Wantage NJ (this part) : the 4AM report of 0.4" is indeed final. Cloudy 19.6F. 51.3" (as good as I can measure) for the season so far (over twice last seasons ~20.7").

Will update all threads by 8A today... one at a time. I think the GFSV16 stopped running at 00z/11 90 hrs w unknown rts. My first take for the NYC group. We'll see what the 7A NYC ob has (T at midnight climo). I think a bit more snow late 13-14 with a change to ice or rain later Valentines Day for NYC. I like a bit of snow accumulation first 6-12 hours of the overall light event. Meanwhile nw NJ newd and the I84 corridor 1-4" looks good to me with maybe a touch of sleet? Advisory event for some of the forum just because of ice risk. 15?? modeling??? could be messy in the afternoon but reserving this to say late 15-early 17... i like a colder solution than modeled...not soo much warming at 850MB and more snow, so I think NYC will see some snow acc but ice could eventually get involved NJ/LI. Modeling is pretty cold at the surface. This will be a moderate event. Advisory event or possibly even a warning event for some of the subforum. 18-19 (thread stops at 18) but this event is complex with predominant ice (ice to rain LI) but may end as snow everywhere? So far no sign of a closed low slowing things any further so have to go with what we see. NAEFS turns interestingly cold in the 1000-500 thickness to wrap this event up on the 19th. Will parse all this out in the threads by 8A. Later, Walt 521A/11

Wantage NJ 405A report 0.4" 21/19 flurries.

Yes, all looks good thru the 18z GEFS... sometimes things break down .. my worry, eventually sleet instead of snow. Not tonight!

not yet... looks warmer with mainly rain coast and snow/ice inland possibly to rain? 8 days away... lots can change and there are events before that, like what you wake up tomorrow. Hope it's enjoyable for at least some of us.

one at a time as someone else said above. all good dates except 20th may be wrong on my part... impressive southern stream but too much ridging east coast might mean sleet/ice interior, rain coast on the 18th. Pretty sure thats the way we're headed. Lets enjoy whatever w can get thru the early 17th. All of that looks pretty good to me on wintry weather pretty good increase in snow depth, especially w and n of NYC.

235PM Wednesday update (10th): Obs thread updated at 225PM with little change from my 7A Wednesday update; I still think be wary of the dry models for the 12th per the brief potential 6 hr sw 850MB flow WAA pulse (light snow PA/NJ). 13th...seems like steady snow develops for sure late on the 13th in our subforum,. Please see the 14th-18th thread on amounts for the 14th.

255 PM Wednesday (10th update): No overall change. Think the 14th is probably all snow or just a touch of rain extreme southeast? By 6PM Valentines night, I think the Feb totals in NYC will have increased 1.5-4" from this mornings 19.9 value...to place the Feb NYC ranking near #11. No guarantees but I think the Valentines (late 13th-14th) event is mostly snow and generally light. I still like 1-4" as a basic starting point. Did see the GFS trying to split NYC with nothing, but relying a little more on the GGEM and ensembles for this assessment. Tuesday the 16th: I know there is potential for ice all the way up to I84... but the front end thump of snow should be decent and I could see this event remaining all snow far nw NJ to nw CT and 6+ continues to be what I'm thinking, at least along and north of I84. Axis of heaviest snow ice is debatable as is northward ice encroachment but overall this looks to be a fairly cold event. Thursday the 18th into early 19th: Challenging... at first glance looks warm, but if you look at the GEFS and some previous operational runs, one can envision a closed 500MB low developing in TN/MO/ARK and then from there??? slower, so that we have a somewhat colder subdued event the 18th and may have to wait for a big qpf event til late 19th or 20th (outside this thread), instead of as progressive as now generally modeled. One question i would have... would that closed low be able to translate newd the eastern Great Lakes or... across the Mid Atlantic? Lots of speculation on my part, and maybe it just comes out bodily as now implied (18-19)? Just bringing up the complexities I can see. No matter, more ice/snow/rain...take your pick and for now I would have to favor rain LI/coastal NJ or brief snow-ice to rain there while, interior?? maybe lots of ice?

CoCoRaHS snowfall for the 9th (final added 1043A), Virtually no qpf occurred just s of I78 in NJ to LI and that nixed the snowfall opportunity from there northward into ne NJ and far southeast NYS - far southern CT (QPF forecast problem that I wouldn't have forecast). Max bullseye snowfall was ne PA into se NYS...well ensembled [3-5"]. Then 1-2" occurred near or just n of I78 in e PA-nw NJ and southern CT. Some spotty icing occurred LI/coastal NJ and especially ne NJ into extreme se NYS and s CT, but limited impact. Saw the overnight ice reports after the storm ended. Thanks for all your observations.

Rare that we're higher than you. Wow!

Models try to drag the bulk of the cold air across the Appalachians with each too strongly modeled short waves. Doesn't happen. Until the trough moves to 70W or further east, we have little chance, UNLESS, we can get some decent confluence going in se Canada and place a 1035MB+high up there. I doubt if we'll ever get down to 14F NYC with this current pattern. My guess is best chance 19th-20th after the main trough moves by but not betting on it. What I do think i know, we struggle to get cold air east of the Apps unless the short wave turns our 500MB flow to west northwest or northwest as ithe short wave buries toward 50-50. Instead, the predominant trough is hanging in across the Midwest and so our 500 flow is ~270 fluctuating 240-250 at times with each short wave. That won't do it.