wdrag

So, the junk weather from mid afternoon Sunday into early today may abate a bit the next couple of days but should return this weekend. Here are the two day totals that incorporate Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Max 3" in Hartford County CT and the bulk of the 1+ near and north of I84. Click maps for greater clarity. Pattern suggests a few periods of drizzle interior NJ/NYS the next couple of days and potential for decent rain this weekend, probably closer to the coast for the weekend.

Good Tuesday morning all, I am looking to replace my Ambient WS1001. Dewpoint and raingage done. Suggestions welcome. Can spend $300-500 for a station will last me 3+ years and be equal or exceed my WS1001. Thank you in advance... will check back later. Walt 10/5/21

Hope no one will be surprised at spot 3" amounts by Noon Tuesday in parts of our NYC subforum. Clusters of slow moving (20-25 kt) heavy showers will be transiting east-northeast across the area beginning late this afternoon-evening, winding down Tuesday morning to spits. Rejuvenates I think Fri or Sat but that's more debatable due to the closed low in the south central USA timing itself into the northeast. Monitoring possible injection of additional moisture from the Bahamas disturbance by the weekend.

Sept worked out warmer and wetter than normal but no real HEAT to speak of. Onward.

Monitoring for a wet start and end to the week, with driest-rainfree odds strongest Wed-Thu. Overall the easy morning WPC 7 day qpf looks decent. Won't rule out spotty week long 5-7" amounts by Sunday evening in the NYC suforum. For now, consider it routine..am monitoring for the heavier amounts but not convinced enough for a thread. 00z/2 EPS is much wetter than the 00z/2 GEFS which has been constantly drier than the EPS.

I view (unfortunately) media is less about news now, and more about 'stories-drama'. Weather information and giving the viewer-listener what they need to make informed decisions is lacking. We (the presenter) boil it down too what we think is of essence, omitting some of the alternate possibilities, especially beyond 5 days. 06z GEFS is showing impressive positive anomalies of qpf for a 10 day period beginning the 3rd in the northeast. I can still see southward slippage, depending on northern stream into NNE and the location of the upper low between the Apps and Miss River. I do 'think' we're going to see some flooding rains (a couple of overlapped decent events) somewhere between the Ohio Valley and mid-north Atlantic. Edit add: also this seems to be without any tropical cyclone contribution (first two weeks Oct).

So, nothing yet, but am on the edge of another thread. This one like the 10+ Sept for longest monthly stretch of 10+, this one for 7 or 8+" of rain in October (teaming with the 3 prior months for a first time ever). Nothing in my stats on this but I think we're heading wet. It's not directly tropical related the first half of the month, more of a synoptic scale cool season batches of of heavy rain that may begin late this weekend through the 9th. The second half off the month might be tropical related---long-long ways to go to gain some confidence. I'll probably wait til Fri evening on this. I guess the only other thing i can say on this: These brief weather predicting icons of 5+ consec days of dry weather are unfair to the skill of our industry in the northeast USA. We're just not that good at predicting 5 gorgeous days in a row- barring a big anomalous stationary ridge aloft overhead.

Rechecked and deleted the post on much wetter than normal. I think we're headed the way but I put up the 12z/28 EPS ens 'control' and that won't work as ensemble. My error. Walt

I'm leaving this to our more informed mets-statisticians about the oscillation interactions.

Yea! Bluewave/Don et al must have some stats for us on what this might portend. Somehow, I always thing of going back to the means...ie, drying out below normal sometime ahead.

need 0.02 for 10, .03 for 10+ as of 1158AM. Let's see if they can do it?

Good Tuesday morning, Wantage NJ rolls of thunder since 650A, and now .06 in a few minutes ..big drops. Not threading but there could be isolated svr today via hail and marginal wind gusts, mainly afternoon and especially I78 south. I saw how last Saturdays rain just grazed e LI. Much less than I what I anticipated would occur with excellent weather prevailing NYC. This Wed or Thu might see a sprinkle into NYC? as the cold pool slides south; the EPS ensembles of last week out-performing the GEFS idea of possibly separating streams. My expectation is lots of afternoon cloudiness both days (5000-8000') Late weekend onward: threat of showery periods ensues as RRQ of the departing Maine trough interacts with central USA eastward moving shortwaves, enhancing WAA possibilities.

Probably correct. I still think modeling is separating streams. I think by tomorrow morning we'll know if the dry quiet is correct. Right now, I'm unconvinced.

I probably should throw in the towel on anything significant Sept 30-Oct 3; but 12z/25 GEFS still wants to separate the streams with a closed low 'trying' to form near the mid Atlantic coast, whereas the EPS has vigorous closed low up near Maine and no opportunity for significant qpf after Wednesday morning. Strange, that the EPS brings SAM closer than then the GEFS in this pattern. I guess I look at it like this: climatologically it rains every 3 days or so (trace included). I think we're pretty much assured of measurable Tuesday. After that, next measurable?? I'll check back if 12z/25 GEFS looks to be more accurate than the 12z/25 EPS, or Tuesday, whichever comes first.

For now, very little to favor widespread qpf late Sept 30-Oct3 with 00z/25 ensembles a little further se. Still think it's not impossible for a closer in low (separate from Sam). In the meantime, if we cant muster the quarter inch late Monday-Wed morning, then we will probably miss out on a 10" Sept for CP. UK is drier on this than most other modeling. Tonight: Still interesting to watch this neg tilt 500MB short wave response NYC eastward late today/tonight.

Impressions on SAM RH contributions to a substantial rainfall somewhere VA to MA Sept 30-Oct 4, offered on Saturday. Right now, it's possible but unlikely. What I do think is that this has to be monitored for a while til we're all sure it won't happen.

I see three possibilities prior to Oct1. My guess is .02 to .35 by 1AM Oct 1. Fit's Don's stats and ensembles above.

Agreed. Am looking at so called outliers starting to signal a pretty sizable event somewhere Va to Coastal New England. Not accepting any verbatim Op runs. Instead watching ens low pressure trends. My thinking this big ridge over the Great Lakes may flop east into NNE allowing closed low formation e of Cape May. That would give credence to some of the ops showing big rains near the coasts. 6 days away. This will be sensitive to Sam upper air interactions, I think. For now I think dry is too optimistic but I could be wrong.

Prelim CoCoRaHs climate obs for the past 24 hours ending about 720A. Will update this eve. Maybe a slight overperformer. Yersterdays 00z/23 HPC HREF had MAX 4-5" spot amounts but pegged more for the Catskills. Click map below to see details.

This I extracted from Don's very recent Sept post. Thought it good add here as we await further developments. Thank you for this Don!!! Central Park picked up 2.03” of rain bringing its monthly total to 9.76”. 2021 is the first year on record with 3 consecutive months of 9.50” or more rainfall. Annual rainfall in New York City has reached 51.69”. That surpassed the 51.38” that fell in 1871 to make 2021 New York City’s 34th wettest year on record.

I cannot post 24 hr CoCoRaHs #'s til late today. Those should be of interest. NYS mesonet added below as of 6A.

Unsure about EWR Sept record. Not starting SAM related thread, as yet... wait a couple of days to see if indeed there is a more direct interaction with the mid-Atlantic coast low pressure system. What I see on some 6AM weathercasts are tooo optimistically dry forecasts tomorrow and middle-end of next week for NYC-LI-NJ. I hope Bluewave and Don have some stats to share on Sept and will recheck late today.

NYC total 2.03 and 9.66 for the month as of 6A.

Correct me if this is wrong: NYC 2.03 for the storm. Monthly total 9.76. So far.