Jump to content

wdrag

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,409

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    Wow: I ca can see that. My deck is doing alright at 29. Gotta live with it.
  2. wdrag
    Wantage NJ (this part 3.8" at 1P 29F. still snowing but lightly 3-4MI. Travel for a while so my final not til this eve. 3.8 might be around the final. ?
  3. wdrag
    Quick post: travel 130P-530P. Thread unlikely today for the 25th-28th. Am beginning to think broadening the potential period of meaningful late season wet snowfall for the forum is wise. Thinking 25th-26th could eventually link more favorably but 12z/19 OP NAVGEM/GGEM/GFS not that good, nor the GFSV16. So for those reasons, 25th-26th not an immediate thread. 28th looks warm but like this event of 18-19, it too looked warm wet down here, yet this is where 3-9" of snow fell on a thread that initially captured a potential wintry event but favored R+/ZR+. That failed on ptype beyond 7-8 days. So, thats the glory of the summer long range synoptic scale 7+ day lead time R+ threads... all rain. Can't mess that up.
  4. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 3.5" act 1130A. Snowing lightly. Today is an excellent example of why snow boards, decks are used for snow measuring. The black pavement, grill covers are melting snow while snowboards, decks still accumulate snow at the current 1mi snow rate... T 27.5. Thats why light snow events are so nice for us, but easily manageable (wet) for the roads, during the higher sun angle part of the day.
  5. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 3.0 storm total. SD 3" 3/4s- as per FWN. Nice snowfall, beautiful and a great winter, dating back to the late 70s per CHICAGO NWS on their front page and also I've seen some stuff about this on our forum. This is the kind of winter I remember...76-77, 77-78 were fab up in BOS. I've added, via the dots and actual data...TWO day snowfall totals via CoCoRaHs which sort of shows how all this snow, the way it is analyzed, comes in bands. It's seldom as smooth as modeled. That's one thing that makes it more interesting. Predictability will eventually improve the banding areas. It already had some banding per comments a day or two ago from some of our members. Tomorrow we'll do the three day storm totals at about this time.
  6. wdrag
    Keep reviewing for Monday morning. look at the melt factor, timing w rush hr and multi model consensus. I just think that it might take til 6 hrs before the event for us to know exactly where a small area of 3-4" can accumulate in 3-4 hrs west of I95. Convective.
  7. wdrag
    Thanks! I hadn't looked. Just ready to snowblower my driveway in 3/4sm s-. Thanks for the heads up. I just looked at it. My take... 1" wet snow too late for the morning rush hour, probably no advisory there but I think it would be warranted ne PA, and maybe high terrain I84 corridor newd of PA, and possibly northwest Sussex County NJ. Depends on timing sooner w morning rush hr, and snowfall rates. There have been indications of a 3 hour 2-4" wet snowfall from MD-PA newd, but where exactly?? Think that will have to wait. In the meantime snowfall continues at varying rates throughout the forum today-Friday. #'s increasing, tho not quite as serious as yesterday LI/most of NJ exclusive of Sussex County.
  8. wdrag
    Wantage NJ (this part) 915A 2.8" . snowing lightly. 24.6F Rural street snow slush covered.
  9. wdrag
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/ Go to the meso1 (click on it, the left side) to monitor enhancement-development trends.
  10. wdrag
    Also...this may help build confidence on satellite seeding-enhancing of snowfall. On tropical tidbits, go to satellite and then look at the left satellite imagery IR... nice to monitor trends.
  11. wdrag
    528A/19: Drpped Sunday Feb 21 from the topic title. This event may be running slightly slower than earlier projections which reduces the chance of any accumulation NYC-LI but not a complete zero chance there. Otherwise, modeling continues to like high terrain snowfall of 1-4", even an inch possible to just inland from I95 Monday morning the 22nd, changing to band of heavy rain showers for LI/s CT during the afternoon. Have not eliminated the 23rd/24thfrom the topic because of the trailing second short wave which may induce scattered snow-rain showers into the forum. Primary accumulation risk appears to be the 22nd. At 802A, added the new 06z/19 GGEM expectation of snowfall by Noon the 22nd. NYC is included. Whether CP measures a small amount with melting possible? I don't know but snow is coming (80% likelihood in my estimation) Monday morning to the I95 region northwestward. Still uncertain is the southeast edge of seemingly small 2-8 hour accums, though 3-4" in some of eastern PA/western NJ is not impossible-depends on location of best lift/waa as a short wave attempts to go negative through our area.
  12. wdrag
    Updating my previous comment. The 06z EC gives NYC LI- and I95 in our forum 1-2" with close to moderate snow midday. Have little doubt this will happen, provided its snow and not sleet. What is observed at CP is unknown to me but modeling says, more is coming. 11Z HRRR has a break early afternoon then resume late in the day and I like that. Enjoy the probable coming attractions.=, even as it melts on driveways-streets. It's still snow. We have to remember the ;primary trough-baroclinci zone-cold front aloft is still to our west and approaching, Moisture is deep to near 600 MB.
  13. wdrag
    Think it premature to rule out NYC for an additional inch of snow. Long ways to go for NYC/LI/CT. Satellite enhancement and radar upstream to to DCA favors I95 getting some renewed snowfall. In the meantime, Wantage (our part) is only 2.4" with decent steady light snow and 0.6" since 4A. I see decent snowfall up here thru 11A.
  14. wdrag
    Excellent summary of stats above Don, and I like your odds in the next to last pgh, beyond Feb. That may mean keep your generators healthy (for the rural dependent). In the meantime: Have reviewed 25-26th. I think some snow will happen but possibly north of I80 and modeling is so divergent that not enough confidence on my part to produce a useful thread, yet. I like the GGEM onto this... NAVGEM not much, and remaining modeling is a mess, so far. NAEFS has a light event, possibly heavier s of I80. Will review late today, this weekend.
  15. wdrag
    515A/19: Intermittent event continues and precip intensification gradually changes freezing rain/freezing drizzle sleet near I95 eastward to snow. Ending time still the same, this afternoon sometime ne PA/nw NJ/se NYS and the remainder sometime this evening-early tonight. Between 7AM-ending time, I expect a general base 1/2" new throughout the forum after 7am with possibly as much as 3" , the heaviest seeming to be near NYC into CT per a decent band developing this morning-midday, and possibly a nice hour of closing snow this evening. Easy melting process on pavement expected during the midday-afternoon hours where temps above 25F and when snow lessens it's intensity. Manageable but fun for us. I expect scattered flurries Saturday and maybe a narrow band of accumulative snow showers leaking southeastward out of the Catskills-Poconos into the forum per the trough aloft passage with a somewhat moist unstable column. Wantage 0.2" 4A-5A as intensity flake size has increased. 2.0 for now. 22.5F
  16. wdrag
    Wantage NJ (the part). Only 0.4" compacted dense small flake snow since 730P. Total 1.8" (we had no accumulation during the predawn burst north of us on the 18th). That prior accumulation is attached and will be part of the 3 day event summary on Saturday. CP had no change after their 1P report yesterday (per the midnight CLI). 3.2" for the intermittent event, so far.
  17. wdrag
    Wantage NJ (this part). A conservative 1.4" fine snow falling at the 730P report 22F. I think we should watch for IR enhancement seeding the deep moisture for larger flake and heavier snow rates. EC modeling has a pretty good baroclinic leaf developing e PA/NJ tomorrow morning. Without radar indication of precip, or satellite enhancement, then it's just small flake snow, I think.
  18. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 4 1.3" and steady light snow at 530P 22F. rural streets snow covered.
  19. wdrag
    NYC members, think we can muster 2 more inches between the 1PM ob today and 1PM tomorrow? If so, you-we'll be ranked #6 NYC snowiest Feb. 3" is probably asking too much?? Pretty soon we should erode the the sleet part of the NYC sounding (not necessarily at JFK) and go over to periods of snow, of varying intensity through 3PM Friday. Shoot me a notification of NYC amounts, if you think of it, as we cross 7P, midnight, 7A tomorrow NYC CP reports. I may not be online too much tonight. I am expecting another 3-5" here n Wantage by this tomorrow. Maybe I'm too bullish on this but unless flake size is tiny (which i doubt due to deep moisture and oncoming mid level vorticity)...we should have some plowable snow up here by morning. Bring to catch you all down there in CP. By this time tomorrow, we may see two bands of 6+, one where it is now down near I195 (south of I78) and one just to north of I80. Modeling sometimes does a very good job picking up bands. Let's wait it out and see if they were right. Later, Walt
  20. wdrag
    Agreed: btw... I don't want to be too exuberant NYC east and south due to BL temp uwarmth ncertainty, but I do believe if NYC has a decent burst of precip prior to 15z/Monday, there will be slight snow accumulation in the city and I definitely agree nw NJ-Pocs newd along the I84 high terrain for 1-4" I have a lower bound of 1 to allow room for failure. It's possible the upper bound needs to be 5. PCS and high terrain nw NJ. It's an interesting system. So, let's ride it out. Has to be a morning event for snow acc in the city. Little question it's too warm during the mid and late Monday afternoon se of I84 for snow.
  21. wdrag
    Not sure who said that? Only that the cold would soften (my own perception-word). We seem to be in battleground and the Nina base with lack of steadfast blocking to our north that may still yield consistently warmer than normal temps... however, modeling keeps showing digging short waves through the northern tier and a warming southeastern USA. No big storms but little contributions of varying magnitude. Too early for mud season. Also, snowpack to our south may help keep temps down a degree or so from expected, especially interior radiation.
  22. wdrag
    Pending the 00z/19 model cycle/ensembles inclusive of naefs, may begin a thread for a light to moderate wintry event for a portion of the NYC subforum the 25th-26th, that may garner more attention as we move past the messy long duration event in progress. This looks cold enough for snow north of I80, maybe even a bit to the south but modeling will adjust it's targeted latitude. Which way, north or south?
  23. wdrag
    They do? I don't think they fall apart, just adjust latitude and ptype for the NY forum.
  24. wdrag
    Wantage NJ (this part): 3PM report 0.9" all surfaces slippery, including some of the treated routes. 22.5. light snow as this is written, some of the flakes at times moderate sized.
  25. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 1145A 0.5" 21F. Treated roads wet, untreated slippery. flurries began around 330A ended by 6A. steadier SB ~9A. 3/4s- now.
×
×
  • Create New...