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Wantage NJ 4 św 4.69" finał for the period of 415AM/ Sept 1 through maybe 1AM/Sept 2. MAX G 30 MPH 809P/1.

that 3" in 1 hour must be anew record and puts NYC well over 4.3" now for the storm.

Wantage NJ 4.16... think we'll kind of level off here near 5" worst of rain has occurred.

Rainfall from mesonet sites... Seems like I78 ish to I80 and NYC taking over as big #'s with a secondary group in PA.

METAR: KTEB [Teterboro Arpt] METAR: KTEB 020117Z 02017G38KT 1/2SM +TSRA FG SCT006 OVC010 18/17 A2955 RMK AO2 PK WND 30051/0059 WSHFT 0059 LTG DSNT S P0173 T01780172 RVRNO 51 KT at Teterboro just before 9P.

NYC CP as of about 908P 2.13 out so today. Note wind directions below. Unsure if wind eqmt out or a GW? or just a convergent zone. KNYC 020106Z AUTO 1/4SM +RA FG BKN008 OVC013 19/18 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 26033/0058 P0043 T01890178 $KNYC 020059Z AUTO 26015G33KT 240V310 1SM +RA BR BKN008 OVC013 21/19 A2959 RMK AO2 PK WND 26033/0058 PRESRR P0004 T02060194 $KNYC 020051Z AUTO 08012G23KT 2SM RA BR BKN006 OVC013 21/20 A2949 RMK AO2 PK WND 05035/2356 VIS 1 1/2V3 CIG 005V009 PRESFR SLP977 P0055 T02060200 $

PO going up in NJ.

I think it is happening... we get a piece of NORA RH and a band of showers on Sunday or Monday. I haven't forgotten. The monthly contribution will be a pittance compared to Sept 1 rainfall... and not as many people as hoped to enjoy Labor Day will notice since we'll be cleaning up from this mess...flood waters/trees. I haven't forgotten NORA. My first goal tomorrow morning is to CoCORAHS the amounts and radar analysis as well and be done with IDA remnant. Then figure out the rest of the month... if thats possible.

From Mt Holly... the official unofficial sensor amounts through the 8PM ob, past 24 hours in NJ/PA.

Follow HRRR. You and I are basically done around midnight-2A. I am thankful it is soon to lessen here. 3.54" climbing.

NYC CP 1.44" as of 812PM. G34 kt there too. 3.43" Wantage NJ so we're on the lower side with the max axis developing se of Wantage. Not often that you see virtually all the I95 corridor under FFW's. 815P.

Rainfall thru 815PM... note the 5's in NJ.

NYC CP as of 745P 1.07 for the day.

Poser outages increasing rapidly in PA NJ due to wind.

In agreement... we'll let the #s decide what model did best tomorrow morning at 10 or whenever we get a chance to post. I think its highly premature to bet on NORTH of HPCHREF HRRR being the more accurate. Suggest be ready for the a lions worth coming 5P-midnight. I'll live with WPC forecast which also highlights HPC HREF etc. Will check back late today. Enjoy the midday break along I80, if it occurs.

Wantage NJ 0.45 as of 858A.

.33 Wantage NJ 743A, a bit higher amounts near the Delaware so far.

Rainfall steady since 415A in Wantage and measuring. Models seem to be a little light on the se flank (I95) this morning. Added ARI from WPC. Recurrence interval not often for these amounts. Definitely would not go north like EC and instead hug the HPC HREF down to I95 in NJ and LI. Wind gusts 35-45kt may take down some water sodden trees overnight. TOR risk in SNJ may briefly move up to NYC-LI this eve but that may be too far north? Strongest winds appear in the northerly flow overnight.

Another tropical related event is coming to much of the area as described by our IDA outlook thread participants. It may push the summer totals to near record levels, and possibly start the month of September with a months worth of rainfall in just one day, maybe even in 6 hours. Public impacts will be serious in some areas from the I-95 corridor and LI northward. Thank you for participating.

5-10 year rainfall recurrence interval per NWS updated 24 hr forecast issued this afternoon. Thread stands as written... we've mentioned 10" max which the 12z/30 SPC HREF and 18z/30 HRRR now seem to have, but overall I think 2-8" works well. Bulk in a Wednesday morning period (note the widespread 1-1.5" amounts today near I76 OHIO-W PA, which arrives by ~4AM), then Wed night-Thu morning torrents. G 35 kt. Not hammering wind harder at this time tho some of the modeling has 45 kt gusts which would be a big problem for parts of the saturated area-uproots-power. TOR potential dependent on northward incursion of the warm front. As much as we root for big events, it gets quite uncomfortable when embedded in 3 hours of torrents 1-2"/hr, wondering whether first time leaks/basement flooding occurs, how much submersible pump water rerouting should we do. We all should be well prepared to minimize impact. I plan to monitor NWS shorter fuse warnings/statements and handle detours Wed night-Thursday as flooding requires. Advice: do not cross flooded roads near streams at night. Too much risk of not seeing the dangers or respecting the powerful current of water which can be a killer. May post something late evening or overnight or otherwise back in the morning. Will begin an IDA OBS thread near 10PM tonight or 4AM Wednesday.

Little to add: My own expected tomorrow morning rainfall of 1/2-iso 3.5" of rainfall between 4A-Noon in I78-I80 NJ-NYC metro cannot be a PRE since just below criteria in distance, timing, and amount but this will be precursor event (plenty of banding support). The 03z/31 SREF ensemble qpf for LGA is appended...total ~4" there. The action between PIT and MRB at 750A (now), is a start and only with modest lift. That lift intensifies early Wed in our area. Continuing thread as initiated last week with minor title change confirmations. For now staying with max 8". Power outages a wild card dependent on wind gusts exceeding 40 knots... for now I expect some power outages but this is not an easy parameter to predict due to uncertainty on wind gusts but this risk exists. TOR: My guess from modeling is that central NJ may see a TOR early THU morning per modeled SIG TOR PARM nearing a value of 1 on the our southern edge. Needs further review in future times. River flooding will be significant with potential for a couple MAJOR in NJ/PA dependent on River BASIN ensemble qpf equaled or exceeded. Worst of remnant IDA should occur 4A-Noon Thursday. Leave plenty of extra time time, if driving. Expect detours, cars stuck in water in your typical flood prone areas, and then coming home Thu eve, the river rises will have started their bigger impact. Thursday is probably a good day to be more careful weatherwise.

The above should be just 4 images... It seems as one scrolls it repeated the first. If you take the time and advance you can see the evolution east. CO folks are starting to hope they get some of that RH as showers.

NORA remnants: see the EC PW changes near WY as PWAT through a previously very dry atmosphere, then extends east from the Plains into our area by the 5th or 6th with showers near Labor Day here. leaks

Will adjust the title Tuesday morning, by 7AM, to a MODERATE-isolated MAJOR event. (This isn't Irene Lee but it's going to be a problem storm as the 18z/30 GEFS continues on course. Have attached the latest NAEFS and GEFS inputs to river flooding and you can see a probable widespread minor to moderate event is ahead, provided the ensemble guidance is reasonable. Purple indicates potential for a MAJOR flood at that point for that river. GEFS on top and NAEFS beneath. Added the ARI last, from the afternoon cycle which shows, based on the WPC rainfall itself that this will probably be less than a 5 year recurrence rate (maybe more so ~2 year). That means nothing when incorporating antecedent ground saturation and stream flow, but rainfall wise... many homeowners with good drainage will say, no big deal. Hopefully they dont have to drive Thursday morning.

Bluewave posted a favorite of mine... showing the high likelihood of banded rainfall pert the NAM later Wednesday. Below I add what I think is more than enough NAFGEN in the 800-600layer and also the 900-500 layer to get sizable qpf convection going in southern PA by late in the day tomorrow-Tuesday.