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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
    CoCoRaHS snowfall for the 9th (final added 1043A), Virtually no qpf occurred just s of I78 in NJ to LI and that nixed the snowfall opportunity from there northward into ne NJ and far southeast NYS - far southern CT (QPF forecast problem that I wouldn't have forecast). Max bullseye snowfall was ne PA into se NYS...well ensembled [3-5"]. Then 1-2" occurred near or just n of I78 in e PA-nw NJ and southern CT. Some spotty icing occurred LI/coastal NJ and especially ne NJ into extreme se NYS and s CT, but limited impact.
  2. wdrag
    806A Wednesday (10th) update: No overall change. This is the thread that dove tails with the 11th-13th thread. The 13th event, however it evolves will probably end up with a decent amount of snow on the morning of the 14th and so am continuing the widespread 1-4" idea (even LI-NAEFS rather cold there). Modeling has trended a little colder (blocking) but not necessarily a big coastal, but some WAA snow. 16th: looking more significant than the 14th. I think it's still cold enough for a front end thump of snow. Ice/rain may eventually get involved NJ/LI but where all snow, seems like a decent chance of 6+, probably I84 corridor, but even LI has a chance of at least a light snowfall prior to a phase change. 18th: may be the biggest qpf event of all 3 with a more southerly track of the trough and a GMEX scoop of RH (18th-early 19th?)BUT, that one seems somewhat warmer... so more problematic for maintaining entire wintry elements, but possible. The good news: IFFFFF this one is pretty big and more of a southern streamer, there is a "chance" it will re-energize the block near 50-50 for subsequent events after the 21st. ?????? Cross that bridge after the joy of tracking too many small-moderate events that offer snow/ice to the forum. A lot to track and maintain an unwavering perspective of what may happen (minimizing big changes to thinking as the models sort it all out). Added the WPC ensemble chance of 3"+ of snow for the 16th. Small chance we'll be #10 ranked Feb snowfall in NYC CP by the end of the 16th. Depends on amounts 11th, 14 leading up the 16th.
  3. wdrag
    7A Wednesday update: The 11th is covered now in the OBS thread. The 12th...be wary of the dry models. Already WAA late 12th in PA. From the initial thread, I left the door open for the 13th. Given the early issuance of the thread (5th), I see this as the event occurrence but timing uncertain. Lots going on and timing of late 12-13 unknown, but just a piece of WAA snow. The idea of the coldest of the season NYC probably won't work out for the 13th-14th. Seems like this is mostly snow and won't quote a final amount by the end of the 13th yet.
  4. wdrag
    I don't think I implied that, did I? Snows 11th, probably later 13-14 (snow to ice?), 16th. There is still an outside chance we'll see more snow than modeled for the 12th but will count on that southwest of LI. The way I see it, 3 of those 6 days will see some sort of snow accumulation whatever it is.
  5. wdrag
    Will update all on-going threads by 830AM except the recap of the 9th around 1030AM. OBS thread for tonight has posted. Snow and ice coming to LI the next 6 days, multiple events. The event of the 18th-19th seems warmer but significant as well and that may end this precarious balance of multiple minor-moderate events with a subfreezing cold pool in a portion of our subforum. In other words, more seasonable temps with the EPS and GEFS considerably on how much loss of the the -NAO/-AO but both are the trending milder, especially after the 18th. I have no skill determining which one prevails nor the impact of the MJO phase, but I think via NAEFS, that we're good for snow and ice in the subforum for another 8 days with a warmer trend for the 18th event.
  6. wdrag
    226PM Update: Not changing the thread but if I had to do it over, I might start the snow as early as 930 PM western part and midnight eastern. Also, I'd probably boost the snowfall expectations to widespread 1-3" NJ/PA/LI part of the forum with at least 1 inch NYC, and increase se NYS-CT to trace far north to 1.5inch far south. Minor roughly 6-9 hour snowfall. Should look pretty in the early morning, provided you don't have to drive in it. Not impossible to see a half hour of moderate 1/2SM snow. ---- The first of a series of successive snow-ice events for LI. On-going threads will provide an attempt at future reality detail for each. Modeling has drifted north for the first of 2, or maybe even 3 in our NYC sub forum for the on-going 11-13th thread. Expect 1/2-2" from Scranton PA to NYC-LI southward overnight into Thursday morning with possible spot 3" south of I78. Untreated surfaces will be slippery and it's likely this will have some minor impact on parts of the area Thursday morning commute, a few accidents and delays. Not major but like the Tuesday the 9th occurrence just north and west of NYC, except further south into the heart of the NYC metro area. There is a chance of some 3/4mile light snow with this event as a couple of bands are indicated and snow growth potential is modest but exists. The best axis? Not necessarily southern the edge of the subforum. Maybe we'll know later this Wednesday evening? Amounts in se NYS-CT and northern Sussex County NJ probably a Trace to 1". Less impact there. Snow start time may be 11PM ish for the western parts of the forum but most of the snow should occur in the midnight to 8AM time frame Thursday. -- 749P: Added OKX and PHI snow forecasts to cover the forum and note that advisories are posted for LI/ and much of NJ. Back in the morning.
  7. wdrag
    fwiw... GFSv16 is back running (12z cycle). Unsure how it long it will continue. LI not much snow but some ice and looks like a fair amount of snow/ice I84 corridor or maybe north of that? Back tomorrow.
  8. wdrag
    Will have a CoCoRaHS map tomorrow ~10A.
  9. wdrag
    Wantage NJ - this portion of our large township 3.5" final. About an 11.5 hr snowfall.
  10. wdrag
    Some reports that NWS posted. This is not a complete picture.
  11. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 3.3" 110PM still snowing at 39P and 27F.
  12. wdrag
    Ype... It's doing well n CT, MA, se NYS, extreme nw NJ and ne pA. Hope you're right beyond th 18th. One thing I like about this... through the 16th ... soooo cold to start the events.
  13. wdrag
    Must have forgotten to post the CoCoRAHS 8A. Busy here prepping a little PPT. 2.5" at 1150A in Wantage NJ and moderate snow 1/2SM variable 3/4 S-. 24F
  14. wdrag
    CoCoRaHS reports as of 8A attached. Not too bad a start. Looks tough for NYC but not impossible. Lets watch upstream developments.
  15. wdrag
    fwiw... back to pretty decent snow here in far nw NJ after a 1 hour hiatus. Also, not sure if anyone noticed...06z GGEM is heaving snow up o I84 corridor late Wed-early Thu (LI/NYC for sure) before suppressing for 24 hours. Definitely snow acc coming early Thursday... and do not count out the WAA pulses. I saw the suppressed 06z EC but with a a pulse of WAA i think its pretty easy to snow to I84, just a 6-12 hour period Thu morning. 12z NAM/RGEM will tell more, whether suppressed as currently or edging back north. Hang on... numerous grazes and in the axis...which is which for each event. It is downright gorgeous here this morning... 20.8F. They didn't bother plowing some of the neighborhoods this morning.
  16. wdrag
    Will rereview late today. A +EPO i dont think is instant change? Is it? I think it suggests a trend. Butting up against a -block might be favorable for events. I don't know the details of the oscillations. I just use tham as considerations on impacts. I do agree with you on at least one moderate event in the subforum (not counting todays along I84). I think the one on-going up here will be underestimated in CT/MA. Just when the next? and is it cold enough for I78-LI south. I sort of think so but have to blend the models. NO QUESTION: A lot of opportunities through the 18th. What sticks? Ensembles have accumulations even LI.
  17. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 4sw 745A 2.0" snowing steady and 18.5F. Beautiful refresher.
  18. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 1.4" at 650A. Continues steady snow here 17F.
  19. wdrag
    Wantage NJ - this part, 6A report 1 inch. Continues steady densely packed small flake snow at a T of 17.
  20. wdrag
    547A Tuesday the 9th: Complex and seems to be trending a little warmer so that LI and s of I78 are problematic on much snowfall, with snow/ice mostly nw of I95. Could even have events change briefly to rain over the interior of the subforum. How they evolve...uncertainty. I still think something on Valentines Day and then 1 or two events 16th-18th. Ensembles favor mostly the 16th-18th and give the subforum snowfall especially nw NJ but the trend on amounts is somewhat less. Am cautious since some of the blocking may be relaxing. CFS is comparatively warm and wet and that's bothersome but am unsure how accurate CFS is. For now considering it another member and have to mention this option. All could turn out a little snowier close to NYC but for now, that is not a lock.
  21. wdrag
    538A Tuesday the 9th update: Modeling has trended south and remained south, so far, so that our subforum is on the northern fringes of events on the 11th and 12th, and have no idea of the 13th. Modeling is varied but overall depressed. Dropped the 1/2-1" qpf from the title and just riding out. Doesn't seem like much except s of I78 where a few inches of snow may occur, with an inch or so possible the rest of the subforum south of I84. Probably nil far northern CT. Still a delicate balance of short waves moving east-northeast in a fast flow with WAA just to our south. So not giving up completely but the heavier potential from the 00z/6-7 cycles has shifted south.
  22. wdrag
    520A update: OKX snow forecast remains the same this morning. Small chance NYC record 1/2" of snow...southern part of LI should have less snow than than the north Otherwise forecast looks fairly close from yesterday. Not sure if nw NJ can exceed 3"? I think best chance spotty max 5-6" is I84 or northward, high terrain Catskills to northern CT high terrain. Take whatever we can get. Hope NYC can muster some measurable snow early this morning around sunrise or shortly after.
  23. wdrag
    This part of Wantage NJ 0.6" at 515A with densely packed small flake snow. 17/12.
  24. wdrag
    Ditto Vernon NJ 0.1" here in this part of Wantage. 19F
  25. wdrag
    No changes this evening from me to any of the thread presentations: 9, 11-13, 14-18. New OBS topic started for the 9th.
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